no comparison bcos homeriz is limited by production capacity.how to grow profit if revenue cannot grow.evergrn capacity has hit 1B previously and if profitability returns, previous net profit levels of over 100m is possible.In that event look for a price of 180-200
This counter is poised to take off...any investor,I mean investors not speculators or punters yet to come aboard...this is the last call for boarding...
Evergreen Fibreboard may trend up after breaching the downtrend line and 50-day MAV line. Traders may buy as a bullish bias could be present above the MYR1.13 level, with a target price of MYR1.25, followed by MYR1.33. The STOCK may fall and consolidate further if it cannot maintain above the MYR1.13 mark in the near term. In this case, further support is anticipated at MYR1.05, where traders can exit upon a breach to avoid a further correction.
There is a high likelihood that the company may embark on a share buyback exercise especially so when it is able to show some descent profit in the coming quarterly result..this in turn will enhance its NAV per share vis-a-vis its overall value.The company might even give out these shares as bonus to reward its loyal shareholders..
what is certain is the industry prospects is as bright as in 2007-2008 period .that was when evergrn was booking 20-30m profit per quarter translating to a annual eps of 16-24 cents and paying a dividend of 4-8 cents.Going forward oil / resin cost and rubberwood cost is expected to be low for sometime.another big positive is bank borrowing, now at its lowest .These factors plus the co were to start paying good dividend should booster the share price to challenge the previous high of 2.00
Slowly and quietly advancing ... It is difficult to believe that some of the biggest players like UBS Asset Management, Credit Suisse Investment Bank and Lembaga Tabung Haji actually hold substantial stake in Evergreen
The controlling shareholder cum management had spent time and money to improve on EVERGREEN biz model to be cost competitive, responsive, improved delivery time and provide consistent quality products (MDFF and Particle board) and that had started to yield results starting Q3 2014 onward. The improved biz model will empower EVERGREEN to continue to improve on its EPS...as its future EPS grows..its future share price will also respond positively !!!
I will not be surprised if its future share price surpasses its all time high of 1.86 @ 23/5/2007
The management could be anticipating a much better profit in the next quarters..as such I am sure they would have decided to embark on a share buyback programme if not already doing so after getting shareholders mandate...this counter is on an upward trend albeit in a jagged manner...expecting it to touch the RM 2.00 threshold by the end of the year as all major indicators are showing positive sign..i.e the strengthening of US dollars vis-a-vis RM,home sales in US soaring more than 6% with housing starts increasing about 9% yoy,overall US economy already on a strong footing,most major furniture exporters especially to the US showing unabated profit uptick.I have put 100% of my investment money in this counter and decided to shut my eyes and ears until the end of the 4th quarter.
Also once their Malaysian particle board plant has been completely revamped using latest technologies, (which they seemed to have been doing for the past 1 year) their quarterly profits will surely jump up tremendously. I think their profits will exceed their previous record.
Evergreen is at the cusp of explosive take off... no turning back until the following events take place which is very unlike in the near future:
i. Price of crude petroleum surging to US 100 per barrel, ii. US dollar vs RM in favour of RM, iii. Sudden and abrupt slowdown in US economy, iv. Fed Reserve reducing interest rate,and v. prolong slowdown in US home sales growth.
Very interesting to note that other MDF players in Thailand and Korea are trading at average PE ratios of 16 while Evergreen is now traded at PE ratio of 8. Still a long way to catch up.
D price at 130s was support level in 2010-2011 which should be strong support now that the company fundamentals are improving beyond to the glorious period of 2007-08.Next target 147
Since US dollar is getting stronger n stronger versus RInggit, may hit 3.90 soon, it should be a good buy to buy some export oriented counters like Evergreen. Evergreen last quarter result is picking up, if it can have net profit of 60-70 mil in 2015, its PE just about 8-9, quite low........
From my analysis of its performance so far and taking into account the macro economic elements of the stock going forward...by the end of the 4th quarter,it should worth circa RM 2.20.
Oil price is a ticking time bomb...may collapse anytime and go on a downward spiral as OPEC keeps on pumping ...
Supply from OPEC countries reached 31.3 million barrels per day in May, the highest levels since August 2012, according to the International Energy Agency.
That means the cartel is producing one million barrels more than the official target OPEC ministers agreed to last week.
And supply from countries outside OPEC -- including the United States -- held broadly steady last month.
Global production continues to outstrip average demand by more than two million barrels per day, despite "unexpectedly strong" growth in consumption, the agency said.
The surplus is sending oil inventories soaring.
OPEC's record output is part of an aggressive effort to keep its market share in the face of fierce competition from the U.S., and others.
Saudi Arabia produced 10.3 million barrels a day in May, a record for the OPEC kingpin.
World oil prices have recovered 40% from their January low of below $45 a barrel, despite what the IEA described as the "lingering supply overhang."
The Paris-based IEA said it expected global supplies to stay strong this year as non-OPEC countries try to defy the price pressure and ramp up production.
But the IEA, which monitors energy market trends for the world's richest nations, said there are early signs that lower oil prices and steep cuts in upstream investment could take their toll on non-OPEC supply.
The U.S. oil rig count has fallen for 26 consecutive weeks, the agency said.
Still, global supplies are three million barrels a day higher than a year ago.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
steady31
318 posts
Posted by steady31 > 2015-05-14 12:27 | Report Abuse
goodbye 110. lift off to hopefully break 127.