Posted by kimssiat > 2015-06-15 21:46 | Report Abuse

BUT .. dropped 10% in a day?

Posted by steady31 > 2015-06-16 12:17 | Report Abuse

looks like yesterday slam down was deliberate to collect as much cheap stock as possible before the better fundamentals are disclosed.If today's closing is above yesterday's midpoint,it will be a bullish engulfing candle ,confirming a continuation of the uptrend to go above the previous high of 134 and will be testing resistance of 147

Posted by 817065 > 2015-06-17 11:30 | Report Abuse

This counter is in a sweet spot now. Under valued by all metrics and under owned by investment funds. Its price having strong relative strength now. Will out perform.

Posted by qwerty > 2015-06-18 06:27 | Report Abuse

Thanks to both 817065 and steady31 for your sharing.
Good stuff.

Posted by steady31 > 2015-06-19 11:58 | Report Abuse

looks like the stock is going to test resistance of 147 recorded in april 2011.based on strong demand at 130s the smart investors are confident of much higher price 170s (30%upside) going forward

Posted by 817065 > 2015-06-19 22:03 | Report Abuse

The ringgit is now at 3.72 versus US dollar and I believe it will weaken further to 3.90 or 4.00 even when the Fed raises interest rates in 2 months time. Imagine what a boost this will do to Evergreen's profits ahead !!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-19 22:05 | Report Abuse

Now 3.7435

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-20 11:43 | Report Abuse

Hotrod, I not familiar

Posted by steady31 > 2015-06-22 12:40 | Report Abuse

The stock is performing as what the chart says .It will test 147 and going by the weekly chart should be able to break thru as stale bull at those prices are not formidable.The stock is indeed in a goldilocks pattern with plenty of upside as rising momentum is strong at both daily and weekly charts

Posted by 817065 > 2015-06-22 13:11 | Report Abuse

It's not easy to find a counter at the moment where both the technical and fundamental outlooks are positively aligned. Looks like further gains ahead.

Posted by turbochart > 2015-06-22 17:47 | Report Abuse

Sold all today..140..yoh yoh

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-06-22 20:28 | Report Abuse

Any pull back soon is a buying opportunity as far as this counter is concerned...the ascendency of this counter is unstoppable albeit a little hick ups every now and then but the up trend will be intact until one of this two things were to take place which I don't foresee in the near future...1. the sudden surge in oli price to USD 100 per barrrel and..2. the sudden appreciation of RM vs USD up to 1 USD =circa RM 3.00. I personally expect this counter to go all the way up to RM 2.00 within the next two quarters...

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-06-23 13:27 | Report Abuse

This is the only stock which from my cursory research and keen observations has got all the perfect confluence of micro and macro economics factor to propel into the near future with exceptional returns...it is definitely undervalued at the present price when taken into account its potential P/E ratio of at least multiple of 12 going forward..

Posted by 817065 > 2015-06-24 22:05 | Report Abuse

Ringgit now at 3.7525 against US dollar. Should be good for Evergreen. Buy on dips.

Posted by StrattonOakmont > 2015-06-25 01:26 | Report Abuse

USD/MYR 3.7707 As of 1:13PM EDT

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-06-25 10:05 | Report Abuse

This counter is for the investors with a year to two in outlook in their investment horizon..not for speculators and contra traders..

Posted by 817065 > 2015-06-25 10:57 | Report Abuse

Agreed with kmohan62. By the way US housing market is continuing to grow strongly and augurs well for the MDF industry. Should be good for medium to long term investors in Evergreen.

Posted by steady31 > 2015-06-25 14:49 | Report Abuse

A comparison with both hevea n homeriz is applicable here. both hevea n homeriz are doing at per of about 12xeven with forward earnings.Evergrn with forward earning of 80m or a eps of15.5c should therefore sit at a price of 1.86 in line with the other players in the sector.No wonder the smart investors are gulping up at 140 n below

Posted by 817065 > 2015-06-25 17:10 | Report Abuse

Yes, steady31, I noticed that too.

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-06-26 12:05 | Report Abuse

Those who follow this forum and read my comments and recommendations and acted upon it about 4 months ago...you would have raked in about 30% of gains...but don't despair,it's not too late..there's still a upside potential of at least 25% going forward...achievable within the next two quarters..strictly not for speculators and contra traders!!!

Posted by StrattonOakmont > 2015-06-26 12:14 | Report Abuse

I'm accumulating on this counter since last year and waiting for my golden eggs to hatch

Posted by Sebastian Sted Power > 2015-06-29 08:38 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/tabung-haji-no-longer-substantial-shareholder-evergreen-fibreboard

Tabung haji earn enough liao and byebye

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-06-29 12:30 | Report Abuse

The news that Tabung Haji no longer a substantial shareholder in Evergreen Fibreboard is a welcome news...this means that the fund disposed to take profit...it will go back to accumulate again slowly but surely after the counter dropped to a certain level...meaning it's time to accumulate on this stock again...I expect it to resume its uptrend after sometime...that is the reason I keep on saying that this counter is for mid to long term investors with a time line investment horizon of 2 to 3 years...as for contra traders and greedy speculators...sorry folks...I don't to say ` I told you so!'.

Posted by 817065 > 2015-06-29 12:48 | Report Abuse

At noon today, ringgit against dollar has weakened further to 3.7845.The Greek issue is causing a further strengthening of the dollar. Evergreen is further benefitting from this. Golden opportunity to collect more shares.

Posted by C-put > 2015-06-29 13:48 | Report Abuse

today's market almost all in red. better be cautious. Wait for more lower price~~

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-01 09:22 | Report Abuse

Greek default or not...this stock will keep up with its uptrend as long as the exchange rate and petroleum price is not in favour with ours...a little hick ups here and there is a welcome signal to keep on accumulating on this counter...take my word..the next quarterly result due in August will be as good as the previous quarter if not better...

Posted by tradervic > 2015-07-01 12:43 | Report Abuse

Hi kmohan62. What is the fair value for this stock?

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-01 13:52 | Report Abuse

Tradervic,
The fair value for this stock going forward is RM 1.85..this is achievable within the next 2 quarters..

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-01 16:42 | Report Abuse

For the record, Evergreen's historical high was RM2.16 in 2007.

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-01 16:51 | Report Abuse

817065,
This time around there is a strong possibility that the 2007 record could be surpassed for there is an added bonus of favourable exchange rate besides the low oil price...if this two macro economics fundamentals were to continue in confluence,I suppose the RM 2.16 threshold could be breached within the next four quarters..

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-01 17:24 | Report Abuse

kmohan62, that is very possible because Evergreen's production lines have now been entirely upgraded to the latest technology, meaning their profit margins could now be much higher than before. Or at least they should be more competitive than in the past.

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-02 08:30 | Report Abuse

817065
Yes,you are absolutely spots on as to the possible rise in the company's margin..investors should take note of the fact that Evergreen had in the past taken various measures in mitigating its losses,one of such is the kitchen sinking measures.This together with the modernisation of manufacturing plant will add further zeal to its production capacity vis - a - vis enjoy economic of scales which invariably add to its profit margin...now that oil price is still low compared to the days when this company used to make very good profit...add to it the macro economic conditions of reinvigorated US economy and the resulting housing demand..all these coupled with the weak Ringgit is gelling well to further propel the ascendency of this company in the mid term..

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-02 09:19 | Report Abuse

hi kmohan62, your analysis is accurate. Today has reached 1.450. Thank you

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-02 09:52 | Report Abuse

Hi Ethan 1986,
My analysis is based on micro and macro economic fundamentals..but one has to always prepared for drop in the price every now and then due to profit takings and some other short term knee jerk reaction from the market..thus it is imperative that one will have to have a long term perspective on this counter to make handsome returns from this stock..not for speculators..

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-02 13:10 | Report Abuse

The beauty of this counter is that it is still largely ignored by the major research houses, except only for one HLG. This is actually a good situation to be in!

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-02 14:31 | Report Abuse

Except for RHB too. They do recommend this stock too right

Posted by steady31 > 2015-07-02 14:45 | Report Abuse

Now that the stock is scratching at 147,it is time to revisit the charts to see what is in store. The daily , weekly and even monthly chart are in sync for a higher high.next resistance is 158 after which it should be making an assault on 180 and so far the path is clear for the price to go higher

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-02 16:53 | Report Abuse

rm1.48 buy in
个人估计 2015年可赚 eps=rm0.13 ,pe=13倍,股价=rm1.69
目前时候还是进这种出口股安全,供参考.
网友分享--
http://www.sharetisfy.com/2015/06/evergrn-5101-agm2015-evergrn.html

Posted by eftee > 2015-07-02 16:54 | Report Abuse

Sold all at 1.46. Will it go higher. Don't want to be greedy. Cukup makan enough. Let others have it though I am bullish on the exchange. But how is the business doing these few months since last result

Posted by peiyen2006 > 2015-07-02 21:39 | Report Abuse

Now the second coming of evergrn2--mieco is playing catch up, trend and market alike

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-03 08:27 | Report Abuse

The last quarter results of Evergreen shows a net profit margin of about 10.25% vs Mieco's a meager 3.75 %...this simple statistics demonstrates the superior value of Evergreen..

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-03 09:46 | Report Abuse

If you were to read HLG's 17 June research report on Evergreen more carefully, you will notice it mentioned that the group is also going upstream which has higher profit margins. Upstream means furniture and housing products etc. Think of Poh Huat, Latitude, Homeritz,Signature, Lihen, etc. How are their profits?This means Evergreen will become a fully integrated group in their industry, from growing rubber wood, producing glue and resins to furniture etc.Perhaps this will be the first fully integrated MDF group in the world. Management is very focused and committed to their business. Should have a bright future in the medium to long term.

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-03 10:31 | Report Abuse

Once they go upstream,the cost of production will be much lower than its peers simply because the company's subsidiaries will be supplying the required raw material almost at cost..definitely an upper hand with comparative advantage..which will add to its bottom line..

Posted by ethan1986 > 2015-07-03 10:38 | Report Abuse

Mind to ask, how does the upstream help at here?

Posted by 817065 > 2015-07-03 10:57 | Report Abuse

Peiyen2006 is right -this is the reformed, stronger,new Evergreen 2, the second coming. Buying on dips will be a very good strategy. You can already notice the steady buying support on a daily basis.

Posted by erkongseng > 2015-07-03 15:01 | Report Abuse

Evergrn rm 1.50 物有所值,Q2,Q3,Q4也会净利,全年赚65m 有望,eps=rm0.13 ,tp=rm1.69 ,pe=13,
不包括4 千多亩橡胶园重估值,保守价rm2.00 ，該公司業務自2012年以來開始走下坡，並連續7季蒙受虧損，
惟在內部重組計劃及外圍因素改善後，而從2014年第三季開始轉虧為盈，至今己取得3个季度的浄利，
由于美元走稳，低原料价和高赚副，接下来的几个季度依然看好，因此股价继续向好机会大。供参考，进出自负。
网友分享--
行情如我預期大漲之後開始進行悶盤
今天來聊一些幾個我認為重要的觀念性問題

我操作股票短線和波段的方式
都是以買「強勢股」並且是能「創新高」的強勢股為主
開啟我進行這種操作模式的觀念的啟蒙者
是笑傲股市的作者「威廉。歐尼爾」
一開始我覺得他買股票買創新高的這種模式我覺得他真的是瘋了
因為去追高
除了風險高之外
遇到假性突破的機會非常的高
在剛開始的時候我很沒有辦法認同這一個觀念
可是在很久之前我又對我一直沒有辦法突破操作上的瓶頸感到非常的困擾
所以當我看了笑傲股市之後
雖然我還沒有辦法認同他書裡面的看法
但是我覺得他有一些想法個人認為覺得蠻新穎的
我個人是非常喜歡學習新知的人
所以我就開始針對他書裡面介紹的一些規則、原理開始做研究
除了看書之外
我也開始從市場中找圖出來對照
當我書看的越熟，圖看的越多
經驗的累積越來越豐富之後
後期我接觸到很多在股市裡大賺錢的朋友
還有一些大陸對於主力炒股原理的書籍進行研究之後
當我發現我自己看圖累積到一個非常大量的時候
有一天我在看「有錢人想的和你不一樣」時
突然來了一個靈感而衝破我思考上的屏障
當時候我的那一個靈感我到現在還記得
「如果一檔股價他的目前最高點是25塊，那麼要他要從現在20元漲到50元要怎麼漲？」
就是這一個靈感給了我一個很大的思考上突破

我想很多人可能不明白我當初為什麼對這一句話有這麼大的反應
因為這一個靈感點通了我一件事
一檔股票從20塊漲到最高價25塊的時候
請問他要怎麼繼續到達50元？
答案只有一個
那就是突破25元這個價格
然後再創一個新的價格26、27、28、29........一直直到50塊這個價格出現
也就是他要從25塊到50塊的這25塊過程當中
一路一直不斷的創新高
如果不會創新高的個股
那麼之前留下來的高價
就會是最高
也意味著你再怎麼便宜買到這檔股票
你永遠也到不了比25塊更高價的位置
當然
20~25塊這中間你也可以不用買創新高就有錢賺
但是這樣子的做法就正好證明了「有錢人想的和你不一樣」這本書裡面講的
窮人只想辦法儘量去買到最便宜的東西
但是富人卻是想辦法找到價值被低估但是可以賣更高的東西

在股票投資中
很多人以為買低價取得低成本
就會有操作上的優勢
但是事實上正好相反
股價也因為低成本反應的是公司價值無法上升的事實
所以通常取得低成本股價的個股握在手上都必須要經過很長時間的等待和煎熬
直到所持有個股的公司在基本面上的轉變或消息面上的刺激
手中持有的股價才會開始上漲
所以買低位（不是低價）的股價除了要等待之外
還要擔負當公司的營運出現惡化時股價更進一步下跌的風險
如此一來
買高價創新高的個股此時比較起來就是一件比較聰明的事

為什麼
我的想法簡單
什麼人會去買新高的「最高價」？
不論是歷史上的高價或是之前下跌留下來的波段高價
誰都知道那一個最高價出現在那裡
股市裡大家都認為自己是最聰明的
所以一定不會笨到去買最高價
一定會在股價低檔盤整時切入等突破
可是問題是？
買那個最高價的人是誰？
我想只有兩種人會去買這個新高價
一、傻子或呆子，因為只有腦袋壞掉的才會便宜的不買去買最高的
二、知道公司的價值即將上升，現在的高價對於未來來說是低價，所以這個最高價其實是便宜的
簡單說
會去把股票買到突破的人
一要有不怕套住的膽識
二要有能把股票推上去的資金
因為等在新高價前面的
會是之前套在高點的投資人
要掃掉這些人手中套牢的籌碼
不是第一種傻子或呆子能辦到的
所以我只相信一件事情
「能買新高價並且能推過去的，不會是普通人」
不管是主力、大股東或是法人（投信、外資、自營商...等）
這些能將股價推過最高價讓個股創新高的背後推手
就具有一定程度對股價的控制能力
而我很清楚我自己在股市操作的定位
我對股價沒有任何的影響能力
所以我只FOLLOW這些可以影響、控制股價的這批人
我不用知道這些人是誰
我只需要由股價的強弱度和籌碼進出判斷這批人的資金實力和控制籌碼與股價的能力就好
剩下的
就是什麼事都不要做
等這些人完成整個股價波段的推升
把主要的趨勢上漲段轎子坐穩坐完

另外
對我來說
創新高還有一個更重要的意義
新高價的突破
意味著「新趨勢的發動」
主力、大股東、法人還在吸收籌碼整理的時候
他們是不會笨到去買新高價的
因為震盪洗出成本越低的籌碼對他們未來拉升股價的時候空間獲利會更大
所以我才說買低價是主力、大股東、法人等這些先知先覺的人的權利
我們要認份的知道自己在股市的定位
不要先去當先知
因為想在股市當先知的人
通常先當先烈的機會會比當先知還要更高、更快
在這些有控制股價能力的面前逞英雄通常不會有太好的下場
要知道
洗盤、整理吸籌的過程有多久沒人知道
但是我知道一件事
就是人性的恐懼會比耐性還要更快控制投資人的情緒
一檔股票就算可以漲五倍
但是先洗你個6個月~1年
我敢保證一堆人連20%的獲利都抱不完就被洗出場了
在新高價沒過之前
太早提前介入
雖然可以取得低成本的優勢
可是你要確定你是能夠忍的住洗盤並且能夠忍住真的噴出後中間小幅度獲利時震盪不被洗出場保有這樣耐性的人
否則在新高價之前介入參與整理的過程
只是多折磨自己並且浪費時間成本和資金效率的一件事

當這些有能力控制股價的人把股價推到新高價的位置
這也間接證明一件事
那就是他們「洗籌碼洗完了」
準備搭配利多或是營收的財報數據.....等等方式開始進行股價拉升
這時候因為這些人持有的都是低價的籌碼
突破的過程中最怕的就是有過多的賣壓干擾股價的拉抬
所以必須要快、狠、準的趕快把股價拉開成本區一段距離
這樣除了可以穩定住短線想獲利了結的跟風盤
同時一旦拉到定位之後
就可以利用投資人喜歡趁「漲多拉回」的時候承接股票的特性
把這些拉抬過程中多吸收的籌碼拋出給這些後知後覺的投資人去承接以達成股價拉高的目的
而不用額外增加過多的拉抬成本和資金
通常這時候是玩真的突破的個股股價上漲的速度會很快
而且整理越久的股票爆發力也會越強
這時切入新高價
是最有機會會在第一時間搭到開始個股啟動點的位置
是起漲點的機會最高

其次
由於是新高價
所以真假突破很容易辨別
也就是對我來說
因為只有一個新高點
所以我設停損的位置可以很容易設定
直接以新高價拉回多少程度當作突破失敗就可以停損了
買進、出場的位置就可以直接的固定住而不用擔心要怎麼設定停損位置的問題
只要沒拉回破停損位置
股價一路往上的過程當中
就能享受到搭轎的過程

而且當我圖看的越多
操作的股票也越來越多
真突破、假突破的個股都遇到之後
當經驗越來越多時
就越能夠分辨哪些個股的突破是最有機會成功的
也就是具有較高機率的可被預測和重複性
一旦對這些過程當你越來越上手之後
你就會越來越熟練
某些賺錢的模式你就會發現一直重複的出現
這時候只要針對你熟悉的模式重複的進行
最後就會成為你自己的一套投資模式

所以現在對我來說
買創新高的個股已經變成我挑選強勢股時必要的條件
雖然創新高的個股不一定每一檔都會是飆股
也有可能會失敗
但是買在一個新的趨勢發動點的機會也很高
操作時間一久
就變成了我股市投資血液的基本DNA
當然
這方式是我為了找出能在最短時間就發動趨勢的方式
是屬於比較短線和波段的方式
風險相對也比較高
因此不建議各位一定要學這樣的方式
只是我提供我自己個人的投資方式供大家參考
同時破除大家一些對於股市的觀念
至於長線投資的佈局做法則必須要利用另一種加進產業趨勢的因素進來分析的方式
會比較複雜一點
以後有機會的話
我會再找時間寫一篇文章介紹給大家

以上就是今天的分享
希望大家會喜歡

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感謝大家

Evacarry

Posted by peiyen2006 > 2015-07-03 16:13 | Report Abuse

People start switch into mieco, still very cheap and nta;1.5.early birds get the worm for this timber co.

Posted by Bad_news > 2015-07-04 06:03 | Report Abuse

Why Tabung Haji selling?
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5101.jsp

Posted by kmohan62 > 2015-07-06 10:21 | Report Abuse

A sincere advice to speculators and contra players...watch your back folks!!

Posted by Goli Ong > 2015-07-06 10:30 | Report Abuse

it was so fast....................................... cannot grab 1.45.... LOL