I am no real Dr lah. Only throw in some fancy financial theorems and equations to cari makan here and there. For all you know, I may not even be a student of these Nobel laureate professors in the first place. So easy to just claim to be one nowadays, haha.
Kadir Jasin no longer works for a newspaper nor is he holding a SC financial markets license. He is in no position to comment on what licensed holders are saying or give financial advice to the public.
iCapital is spending big money organising road shows and Investor Days in order to raise expected returns from the stock market and reduce the price discount, and this ex journalist is now trying to pour cold water over such efforts. What is his hidden agenda?
“If we look back at the five-year period from Jan 1, 2019, Bursa Malaysia only rose once to 1,707.73 points on Feb 1, 2019 when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad (who is known as Atok to Madani supporters) was the prime minister (PM) of the then PH government.”
As much as I have criticized the fund manager, we need to stay objective and rational. AK, hit out at the fund manager supported current government for his bullish call partly seeing positive changes & more stable government.
If anyone of you have a book The Singapore story Memoirs of Lee Kuan Yew, read chapter 36. You know how certain party using media to their advantage. This is a business forum/blog. Let's stay away from politics related issues.
From Oct 2005 to 6 Sep 2023, the MSCI Malaysia index gained 1.84% annually. In the same period, the NAV of ICAP jumped 7.90% annually and its share price compounded 6.61%. This strong performance of ICAP hides many important truths.
To uncover them, let us break this overall performance down into two distinct phases : one with a higher cash level and another with a lower cash level.
From Oct 2005 to Dec 2013 when the cash level of ICAP was lower (it fell to as low at 10.5% in 2009), the NAV of ICAP jumped 14.85% annually and its share price compounded impressively at 11.67% per annum.
In comparison, from Jan 2014 to Dec 2019 when the cash level of ICAP was much higher (it rose to an average of 63.4%), its NAV gained only 0.71% per annum and its share price was essentially flat, even though these were still much better than the MSCI Malaysia index.
Then, from Jan 2020 to Sep 2023 when the cash level of ICAP was falling again, (by Sep 2023, it has fallen to 26.4% from over 63% in end 2019), the NAV of ICAP is once again rising at a higher annual compound rate of 5.06%. What is even more interesting is that its share price has been rising at an even faster pace of 6.73% compounded annually. At this rate of increase, not only will NAV parity appear, but there could hopefully be a premium again. A lot depends on ICAP having the right quality of share owners and the performance of its future NAV.
From day one, ICAP has been very consistent and disciplined with its value investing approach and therefore its asset allocation. When your Fund sees attractive value, it will invest. Otherwise it will wait even though Tan Teng Boo, its Designated Person, has been persistently and publicly harassed by a few certain large investors, parties who are not even share owners of your Fund, for strictly sticking to ICAP's value investing philosophy.
In 1985, Buffett has already cautioned:
"You might think that institutions, with their large staffs of highly-paid and experienced investment professionals, would be a force for stability and reason in financial markets. They are not: stocks heavily owned and constantly monitored by institutions have often been among the most inappropriately valued."
@JohnD0ugh..I think I can save $49 annual subscription fees to iCAP since you are giving out freely these days.
Short reply to your long posting, another long reply later when I'm free:
The fund manager needs to change the color of his underwear, change from RED to BLUE. He is thinking RED color will bring him lucks forever. In case it doesn't work, switch to a RED panties....before he is losing his underwear or panties 😂😂
If he can just say like what 3i quoted:
"It is more honest to say I don't know and that my past predictions were sometimes very wrong."
He will get lesser bad lucks....how to be in good luck when so many people cursing you instead of blessing you?
A few observations - % based Top 30 in 2023 1. Quite stable holding by company(5%) 2. Individuals-large - stable- (13%) 3. Institution quite a big increase but mainly by COL(22%) 3. Insiders increasing slowly(3%) 4. The rest of us has been declining very steadily from 103 million in 2006 to 79 million... I have no privilege to access, beyond top 30 largest shareholders, I believe the decline is even more serious because beyond top 30, not will be classified as individuals.
The writing is on the wall, the rest of using are losing faiths in the fund manager. Yet he is still lan si lan yeong. Instead of finding ways to regain our trust, he said NAV is his job, the rest, f U. He is shifting the blame to the "institutions".
He doesn't need to blame the rest of the institutions, there is only 1 institution(singular not plural, I got it right) COL is the largest holder. Hold a four-eye meeting with them, settle things privately. Don't drag the rest us into the muds. Nia mah!
My final view on the performance before somebody hit the nail on my coffin lid...
Stop talking nonsense about at the relative performance with the confusing gimmicks.
I think he should just shut his mouth.....show me the money......I call you lek chai when NAV = 5.00 in 2-3 years from today.....30/10/2023. Why talking nonsense with this MSCI that MSCI, this cash that cash! All thrash thrash!
For iCAP die hard fan....in the future, you monitor yourself on what your fund manager have bought for you the combo meals on CAPA Counter ************************************************ Qty********Cost*****Cost per share*****Price 31/10/2023*** Fair Value Capital A Berhad - Ordinary shares******CAPITAL-A****29,282,200**24,811,409** 0.85***0.84*** 24,597,048 Capital A Berhad - Redeemable Convertible Unsecured Islamic Debt Securities ******************************************CAPITALA-LA**9,760,733**7,320,550*** 0.75*** 0.87*** 8,491,838 Capital A Berhad - Warrants** *****************************************CAPITALA-WA***4,880,366*****0**********0******0.375*** 1,830,137 Total cost 32,131,959 Fair Value 34,919,023 Gain 2,787,064 Gain % 8.7%
I need to add back the dividend iCAP received for Boustead Holdings Berhad(BHB). Estimated about $ 16,822,767 through out the 16 years. BHB suspended dividends from 2019-2021 and paid the last dividend in 2022 and subsequently RIP.
Overall is about break even for iCAP and not 17 millions loss. You see I have been very fair. The fund manager will use his performance to compare to MSCI by excluding the dividends in his calculation!
I want to call him to put a stop on such thing. You see the 2 pictures?
If I use what he uses, he had a horrible losses and everybody wants his head to roll.
When I added back the dividend, instead of his head to roll, may be just a small slap.
Warren Buffett's Idea Of Heaven: "I Don't Have To Work With People I Don't Like"
As a shareholder, I start to wonder why those discredited and call the Fund Manager a bluf, yet actively digging into past numbers and didnt sell their shares. :p
Oh...cox I have only 1 share, selling it out will lose my right to "Ngo Yew Kong Yeah"(I want to say something)
Money is not everything if things get personal just like what he did to others.......
Everytime I "bau liu"(digging the fund manager closet), share price went up, did the fund manager support the share price? afraid to face shareholders? At least he can say in AGM, you see, lesser discounts now. I certainly didn't buy. The truth will come out after AGM. This is a real buying or just wayang kulit.
This country was making some small progress that got the fund manager bullish about our bursa because of a few people that will swear Nia Mah! instead of going to Australia to be apple pickers or HK to "sei tai pheng"? (washing plates) or US to pei shu zhai(peeling potatoes). Nia Mah!
I don't like the fund manager also but I can work with him, this is what I am doing now. This is heaven - small "h"😆.....if he has the sincerity, many small h will become big H......Heavens. He is running iCAP like another big H now.....Hells.
The fund manager needs to ask his conscience. "I know what you did last summer" What has he done to others: Public Enemy #1 tinge - far worst than I merely dug out the facts from his annual reports....did he fell embarrass? Not taking profit of 16 million in 2011 on Boustead? Or did he miss the signal the train was coming when Boustead suspended dividends? The dividend that I added back was not deducted on his 1.5% management fees on the yearly Fair Value and income tax, it is for sure less than $16 million, I didn't want to be so calculative....he knows how much he owes the shareholders for this one.
1. Apologize to all shareholders for the lost decade 2. Cake B, first do his "innovative dividend" tinge, then iCAP PUT(I can wait on iCAP PUT tinge) 3. Re-consider re-appointment of Tan Mun Ling.
The reasons already in my previous post. I don't want to be cheong hei!
Have a nice day.
I don't want to be active for the next few days unless someone use his golden finger to poke me.
FastMoney is generous on calculating performance of Fund Manager on investing in Boustead. In reality there is Investment cost in holding 16 years of shares in Boustead. There is a huge Financial loss of RM17 milliion + Risk-Free Capital on investment Cost, since returns or dividends teceived were added up. Fund Manager Owes shareholders on this loss
To be fair, All funds are being evaluated based on NAV performance and close peer comparison, not individual stock performance. If you demand every single investment made by the manager must makes money, you need to approach Fong Si Ling to set up a fund for you to invest in, and you probably need to pay a premium of 30% for it.
What the Aussie professors have failed to explain is how iCap's discount dropped from 35% in Dec 2021 when COL was stopped from buying, to as low as 43% discount in Mar and April this year, if COL's increasing ownership is the major cause of the price discount. When COL resumed buying in Aug this year, the discount narrowed back to just 22%. This stretch of the most recent data does not fit the hypothesis.
Attendees at today's AGM are really lucky, to be able to hear first hand an innovative dividend policy that is worthy of a Nobel Prize because it is going to supersede the earlier prize winning theorem on the irrelevance of dividend policy.
For someone to rubbish the teachings of a university that is associated with 100 Nobel Prize winners, must be mighty confident of himself. No wonder the staff all wore T shirts proclaiming "better than the best".
If they have paid close attentions to have we posted here, they should have anticipated the same questions will be raised.. quite surprise they brought up COL ownership caused the widening discounts. All along we keep saying the fund manager is sitting on his big fat cash waiting for a bear market caused the poor performance. Disappointed shareholders on the poor performance exited at big discounts as much as 43%. The market is discounting his cash of doing nothing.
Looks like they are recycling the same story like an old broken record.
Anyhow, still the same thing I want to say
I we don't take, he takes, better we take.
Despite of they overruled the theorem on the irrelevance dividend policy. 😞
Dumbmoney, what’s stopping you from challenging then on the spot. It would have be spectacular. Since you have the numbers you could have brought down the two academic practitioners. Now you have to rant in i3 for another years. Sigh
The Board of Directors said that its iCapital own legal fees is around RM800,000+ It has been Charged off in the accounts or in NAV value. Which Financisl Year and which particular account??
If my posts are such utter rubbish, why give me the special billiings and mention in the road shows and AGM, with slides and photos? Just ignore me and let me rant like a mad man.
3 possibilities 1. Jealous. He can't get into #1 MBA in the world. Petty. 🤡 2. What you said is true, like 20% foreign limit was not in the constitution, dividend irrelevant theorem, etc... Really threatened him. 3. More people agree with you... He gets more scrutiny.
@dumbMoney Quoting doesn't put you in same league, also if comparison is made just based on number of past Nobel winners, all the institution besides the ivy league wouldnt be submitting research papers.
The lengthy presentation provides shareholders a better picture about the discount, also after hundreds of posts and accusation made by you on i3, I think its pretty fair play(though i don't support the action of calling up specific names in AGM).
Anyway, COL has been increasing stake at the same time trying to attack the fund manager. It's kinda questionable what's their intention, perhaps you can elaborate on that.
Why not sell out your positions, to have peace and spend your life on something more constructive with your talent. It benefits the fund manager, the retail shareholders who support the fund manager and yourself, a WIN-WIN-WIN.
I think management should now spend more time looking for the elusive foreign shareholding limit clause to prepare for the upcoming litigation than to keep track of my insignificant posts here. Is it because I have been asking questions about this clause in the constitution all this while and got the blame for the court injunction?
Under the innovative dividend policy, those wanting a good dividend top up rate will have to live with a deep discount. I am not sure whether 24% is deep or not in the books of management, in order to enjoy a 4% payout. Get rid of the discount, then dividend can only be 1%. So much for having the cake and eat it. Those who want dividends and those who want to be fully invested will be in opposite camps.
COL has been accused of causing the price discount by manipulating the trading on Bursa. How can this be manipulation when every trade by COL needs to be promptly reported once the 5% substantial shareholding limit has been reached? Everything is transparent, whether buying or selling. so if some shareholders willingly sell at a discount because the buyer is a institution, then it is the latter's fault? What about CDAM buying a couple of million shares for its private clients, all without having to report, unlike COL? CDAM buying for itself needs to disclose, but buying for clients need not, because that's the rules. Which part of COL buying did not follow the rules then?
In the earlier case against COL breaching the 20% individual limit, all that its lawyer need to ask is, show me COL's name in the share register? Similarly, for this upcoming foreign limit, only question to ask is, show me the clause in the constitution. I have already asked this here and even provided a link to the constitution for easy reference, but no one has answered.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
FastMoney666
583 posts
Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-10-29 14:54 | Report Abuse
@dumbMoney - I think you are a real PHD holder but you are too humble about it and doesn't care about all with those title😂😂