Friday night American market down. Malaysia is always subsequent session follow only. Hence down. Nothing to do with fundamentals. Iran general got killed so some rubbish. Check 1998 same thing. Clinton impeached, yen up, bombs Iraq, then stocks drop cause nervous from bombing then rallied hard. Now same pattern, trump impeached, yen up, bombs Iran, stocks drop cause nervous then will rally hard probably after weds. Malaysia market will follow blindly. Our fund managers lazy. Just follow only.
it's profit taking...the broader trend is till up till about march. Can't panic at every drop. That isn't investing then. Besides, there was profit taking at regular intervals if you look a the chart. "unusual"
hmm...besides profit taking...would the futures be down because of the china-usa trade deal being signed? Would mean soy is back in china menu and a reduction of palm oil perhaps? hmm...last i checked their prices were on par.
Well...as long as Iran doesn’t do something stupid. Only thing I’m looking at now is how the market would react to the China-USA trade deal as it puts soy oil-vs-palm oil. Besides that we should rally into March.
think tmr...not today, although initial losses already recovering...early morning they reacted to nyse in red...but only slightly low. tmr nyse green they follow. america usually rally once war start...so isn't an issue. refer above article on historical moves.
INdia's boycott cannot affect the price of CPO. If India buys form Indonesia only, Indonesia's CPO price will shoot up. Other countries will avoid Indonesia nd buy Malaysian crude.
And Indian refiners cannot ignore Malaysian CPO for long if Indonesian CPO price is higher than Malaysia's.
The only way Malaysian CPO price can fall is if production shoots up. But no way production can shoot up in the next 3 months.
Or if they decide not to use CPO in bio-fuel. But that is already fixed policy. Indonesia for example had decided to use 100% CPO for production of its bio-fuel.
Modi cant be serious lar... this is 10m mt of vege oil they are talking about... not sea water which they can suck it up from Indian ocean as they like...
thats y till now... only little napoleon jump here and there unofficially asking private company to boikot lar....
vege oil... a necessary daily food...suka suka boikot meh...
Well,you're right. In the end an Indian boycott actually would only have a temporary affect on prices as it eventually re-balances. I'm more concerned on China-USA trade deal. Since if it includes soy oils....may affect China's demand for palm oil? Since they currently use palm oil as a substitute?
@sin20999, no worry. China can buy up and consume every drop of soya bean oil and palm oil produced by the US and Malaysia respectively. So it all depends on how China plays the game.
I am more concerned about Mahathir's loose tongue.
pokemon..that article is kinda already priced in. look at futures to see effect. anyway,it's rallying now...so we should have a good day tmr... unless trump says something bad....in literally the next 30mins...lol
agree with upsidedown119 on that point ...on another note....Trump didn't declare war....tomorrow should be a rally for KLCI on the back of wallstreet's rally.
KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 8): The Indian government has banned imports of refined palm oil into the country, according to a government notification sighted by theedgemarkets.com.
According to the notification, the import policy for refined bleached deodorised palm oil and refined bleached deodorised palmolein has been amended from ‘Free’ to ‘Restricted’.
The new policy is believed to be in response to Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad's criticism on India's actions in the Kashmir region and its new citizenship law.
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Note that India is the world's biggest importer of palm oil, where it imports most of its refined palm oil from Malaysia and crude palm oil from Indonesia.
Malaysia exported palm oil worth some US$1.65 billion (RM6.9 billion) to India in 2018. Palm oil accounts for 2.8% of Malaysia's gross domestic product and 4.5% of total exports.
The notification dated Jan 8 read: "In exercise of powers conferred by Section 3 of FT (D&R) Act, 1992, read with paragraph 1.02 and 2.01 of the Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020, as amended from time to time, the Central Government hereby amends the import policy of items under Exim Code 1511 90 of Chapter 15 of ITC (HS), 2017, Schedule-1 (Import Policy)."
Items under Exim Code 1511 90 includes refined bleached deodorised palm oil and refined bleached deodorised palmolein.
As such, the effect of the notification is that the import policy for said items is amended from 'Free' to 'Restricted'.
Yesterday (Jan 7), Reuters reported India has informally asked palm oil refiners and traders to avoid buying Malaysian palm oil, according to sources.
Malaysia’s comment on new citizenship law angered New Delhi
* India buys most of its refined palm oil from Malaysia
* Indonesia’s share of India’s palm imports could rise-traders (Adds details on restrictions, industry comments)
By Rajendra Jadhav
MUMBAI, Jan 8 (Reuters) - India imposed restrictions on imports of refined palm oil and palmolein on Wednesday, a move sources said was retaliation against top supplier Malaysia after its criticism of India’s actions in Kashmir and a new citizenship law.
The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued a notification declaring that the import of refined palm oil “is amended from ‘Free’ to ‘Restricted.’”
Four industry sources told Reuters that the memo was an effective ban on imports of refined palm oil, meaning India can now only import crude palm oil. It will hit Malaysia, the main supplier to India of refined palm oil and palmolein, but is likely to help Indonesia, the biggest exporter of crude palm oil.
Indian government and industry sources told Reuters that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government was seeking to target Malaysia after recent criticism of India by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.
Mahathir said in October that India “invaded and occupied” Kashmir, a disputed Muslim-majority region also claimed by Pakistan. Last month he said India was stoking unrest with its new citizenship law, which critics say undermines the country’s secular foundations.
Palmolein is a liquid form of palm oil used in cooking.
New Delhi had earlier this week informally asked palm oil refiners and traders to avoid buying Malaysian palm oil.
The decision to restrict all imports of refined palm oil is also likely to boost business for Indian refiners of the vegetable oil.
Indian crude palm oil, soyoil soybean and rapeseed prices jumped after the announcement.
“This move in a way will punish Malaysia and will help local refiners as well,” a Mumbai-based refiner, who declined to be named, said.
The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry did not respond to a request for further information. Malaysia’s Primary Industries Minister Teresa Kok, who is responsible for the palm oil industry, declined to comment.
“Malaysia is in a lose-lose situation with this ruling,” said Sathia Varqa owner and co-founder of Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics, adding “India will ramp up buying of CPO from Indonesia.”
Indonesia traditionally corned around two-third of India’s palm oil imports, but a lower duty on refined palm oil helped Malaysia to overtake Indonesia as India’s biggest supplier in 2019.
Palm oil is crucial for the Malaysian economy as it accounts for 2.8% of gross domestic product and 4.5% of total exports. State-owned and private Malaysian refineries will likely have to scramble to find new buyers for their refined product.
Indian refiners need the boost as refining activity in the country has been hit in the past year by imports of cheaper refined palm oil, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA), a Mumbai-based trade body.
“Indian refiners were struggling for survival ... The ban on refined palm oil imports will help refiners, local farmers and help in creating new jobs,” Mehta said.
Palm oil accounts for nearly two-thirds of India’s total edible oil imports. The country buys more than 9 million tonnes of palm oil annually, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. Indonesia is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, followed by Malaysia.
As a fellow trader, TDM and FGV is safer bet due to nation priorities. Rsawit need to turn to make profit first then can have assurance in investors. If else, it is just big shark pulling in for money, hit and run to make profit. small fish die in between.
true but due to relatively tight inventories any additional demand to indonesia from india would incur a loss for indonesia of other customers whom would rotate to buying malaysian and the simple process of rebalancing price with supply and demand,for the moderate term to longer that isn't an issue. It's probably only the immediate that the concern is present.
AS for India's 'ban', please read my post as to what will happen if India buys CPO only from Indonesia and the price gap between Indon and Malaysian crude increased.
As for refined oil, refine margin is very thin. If Indian refine oil becomes expensive, they will find means to get 'cheap' Malaysian refine oil. Otherwise their refineries go kaput.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
niliuma
12 posts
Posted by niliuma > 2020-01-03 19:29 | Report Abuse
finally its down yeah