FCPO prices are in backwardation (where future prices are lower than current spot). This is considered a bearish sign i.e. market participants are not willing to pay more.
Ramadan starts in April. Both Malaysia n Indonesia will look after their voters with subsidised cooking oil prices. Tax n levy by both govts will crimp CPO exports.
In short, CPO prices will likely to settle to RM 4800 pmt eventually........
By giving such conclusion, I think u nvr follow FCPO market before. FCPO trading always focus on next 3 months. As time passes, the rolling future months will be more reflective of the spot price. Hoped tht u get the facts right
FCPO has been in backwardation since 2020. Major trend since have been upwards. Companies that sold spot have much better profit trends than those that sold forward. My guess is if one have shorted since 2020 and rolled their shorts till now; because of the dynamics and settlement of MDEX,one would still be losing money.
When the March'22 FFB/CPO Harvest is out & Jan'22/Feb'22/Mar'22 Average CPO Price is out, I shall give Q1/22 Report for the financial performance estimation.
China Faces Worst Crop Conditions Ever Due to Climate Change
Bloomberg News08:30 AM IST, 23 Mar 2022 (Bloomberg) -- More extreme weather caused by rising global temperatures — compounded by geopolitical turmoil and the pandemic — is hindering China’s effort to ensure food supplies for its 1.4 billion population.
President Xi Jinping has made food security a priority for the world’s second-biggest economy, an effort to meet the soaring demand that’s pushed imports of corn, soybeans and wheat to record levels, making Beijing increasingly vulnerable to trade tensions and supply shocks. At the same time, climate change-induced disasters have caused widespread crop damage and shrunk the amount of arable land, making it harder to boost local production.
Tang Renjian, the country’s agriculture minister, brought up the threat at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month. “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn,” he told reporters. “Many faming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”
More than 860 people died or went missing in natural disasters last year, which damaged almost 30 million acres of crops. Record-breaking rains in the central province of Henan in July alone damaged 2.1 million acres of farmland. The floods delayed planting on more than 18 million acres of land, about one-third of China’s total winter wheat acreage. The amount of first- and second-grade crops, where there are more than 2.7 million seedlings on every acre of land, fell by more than 20% this year compared with normal years.
Climate change hurts China’s pursuit of food security in two ways, according to Zhang Zhaoxin, a researcher with the agricultural ministry. More frequent extreme weather events are already lowering crop yields. Meanwhile, increasingly unpredictable seasons can undermine farmers’ confidence and potentially worsen the sector’s existing labor shortage.
Farmers in northern China are used to droughts, not floods, Zhang said. In many of the regions that were affected by torrential rain last year, farmers couldn’t harvest their corn because their machinery couldn’t handle the water. There wasn’t enough infrastructure such as pipes and systems to drain the field in time.
Those issues are set to get more serious as the planet warms. Seasonal droughts will reduce yields of China’s three major staple foods — rice, wheat and corn — by 8% by the end of the decade, according to World Resources Institute. In the longer term, climate change also means rising coastal waters along the long and low eastern coal could further stress the agricultural industry.
“As climate change continues to intensify in coming years, weather events are going to have a greater and greater impact on agricultural productivity,” said Even Pay, an agricultural analyst with Trivium. Ramping up imports isn’t a viable alternative, she added, pointing out that global warming makes food cultivation more challenging globally. “Climate change felt in the rest of the world could also impact China’s food security,” she said.
After recent market correction. Palm is now trading at a discount vs SBO price { Rotterdam} SBO is price at US 1,990 vs US 1850 { Indonesia CPO} and US 1815 { Malaysia CPO} as at yesterday evening. Prices quoted CPO FOB Indonesia & Malaysia. Rotterdam SBO is on Ex mill basis
March physical at MYR 6,700 per tonne. May FCPO position at MYR 6,300 per tonne. Brent Crude at USD 119 per barrel. Rival SBO oil at USD 1,985 per tonne {Rotterdam price} premium app at USD 260 - 280 over Malaysia /Indonesia CPO.
What Calvin mentioned is surprising true. Nobody wants to talk about rival SBO price is now trading at a premium betw USD 260-300 per tonne over Malaysia/Indonesia CPO. Instead certain parties citing high palm oil prices may.... and cause demand destruction. They have not cited other soft oils eg. Rapeseed oil, sunflower, canola oils & SBO is now all at high prices. Adverse weather has disrupted the plantngs of canola & soya bean crops. US farmers in the mid west have switch from soybean to wheat. Our media is biased in their palm oil reports { eg US seizing the 2 cargoes of shipped palm products} even now the US have not named or mentioned the company that shipped the cargo. Hopefully the new Plantation Minister can do more to address the one side reporting used by the western media. It's trade, economic & political interest to run down palm and maintain the eroding influence of soya. Unfortunately our media is siding with the Western backed NGO. Not a single NGO has blamed US cattle farming for its contribution on the green House effects instead blaming on palm.
Dont think is bad new since 5000 already handsome profit for all plantation company.
CPO futures contract for April 2022 dipped RM93 to RM6,538 a tonne, May 2022 fell RM66 to RM6,249 a tonne, June 2022 slid RM90 to RM5,930 a tonne, July 2022 decreased RM95 to RM5,739 a tonne and August 2022 and September 2022 both declined RM98 to RM5,633 a tonne and RM5,564 a tonne respectively.
Losses for the vital vegetable oil risk accelerating global food inflation that’s already running at a rampant pace. Buyers across Asia and Europe that are awaiting sun-oil deliveries are switching to alternatives soybean, rapeseed and palm. Yet those supplies have been limited as well by weather woes and labor shortfalls, sending prices to dizzying heights. Read more: Russia’s war is redrawing the $120 billion global grain trade. “We’ll have huge stock inside Ukraine, and no stock and no goods for the market outside Ukraine,” Osypov said. “It’s big damage for the food security of the global world, and a big problem with liquidity for the company and the farmers inside Ukraine.”
A gradual reopening of borders in Asia is fueling a hunt for trades that will derive the biggest boost from a recovery in consumption and investment. Soaring commodity prices will boost the coffers of exporters such as Indonesia and Malaysia although some analysts warn the damping effect on global growth may outweigh the positives. “Higher commodity prices should be most beneficial to Malaysia and Indonesia’s terms of trade in the region,” the Goldman analysts wrote. “We think the won and Taiwan dollar should underperform given the expeditious pace of Fed normalization, slowing Chinese growth and persistent equity outflows.”
*MUST READ NOTES IF YOU ARE A TRADER/INVESTORS IN STOCK MARKET*
1.China had 1.5% retail inflation against 1.1% and PPI 8.3% against 8.8%. So its concern for PBOC. if it will continue to raise then PBOC also can think about increment in Interest rate. Malaysia Will also announce today in afternoon and its expected to increase. So definitely market will react. HSI is already down by 550 points after giving gap down opening.
2. CPO can surge in this week or coming days due to Indonesian crisis. Indonesia is largest producer of Palm in world, unable to complete their own domestic need due to higher exports. Earlier they were depended on the other edible oil like Soyabean which they were getting from Ukraine and Russia, Brazil. But now War
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StartOfTheBull
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Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-03-17 22:05 | Report Abuse
Canola, soybean and corn all rebounded as well. Tomorrow likely to see palm oil price rebound too.