Posted by OTB > 2022-03-05 21:12 | Report Abuse

Thank you investor2021trading.
I am not good in palm oil stocks, I want to learn from all sifu here.
Please enlighten me, I am a newbie in the palm oil stock. I try to learn and catch up.
Thank you.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-05 21:47 | Report Abuse

Mr OTB,
The cost of production is in the range of $1,400 to$1,700/mt of CPO in general. Plantation which can produce upto 4 to 4.5 mt of CPO per ha will have production cost at the low end of the range mentioned in the above. The less efficient plantation who achieved lower yield per ha will be at the higher end of the range. The variation in cost of production largely influenced by the productivity achieved ( ie yield per ha). The various components cost are relatively small and stable between plantations as they pay about the same labour cost and input costs like fertilizer and weedicide.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-05 21:54 | Report Abuse

For example,
1. HSplant?s cost of production in 2019 was $1,482 pmt CPO . Whereas, it jump to $1,682 due to considerable drop in yield per ha in 2020.
2. Bplant who we all know is not the most efficient plantation ( yield of 3.2 mt CPO/ha) has its cost of production at $1,649 in 2020 as compared to kLK?s $1,300+.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-05 22:01 | Report Abuse

One of the main components in cost of production is fertilizer. Fertilizer price has gone up substantially in 2021 and small rate of increase in 2022. Labour and other management cost which has lower weightage has always been relatively stable with 3-5% increase per year.
Base on prevailing prices of fertilizer, I estimated that the cost of production for FY 2022 will be $250 - $300 pmt CPO higher than 2020.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-05 22:03 | Report Abuse

Therefore you may take that the cost of production for FY2022 is $1,650 to $1,950 pmt CPO

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-05 22:09 | Report Abuse

Pls note that , CPO selling price has little bearing on cost of production. Cost of production largely influenced by productivity (yield per ha) and input cost eg fertilizer , labour charges etc

Posted by skyjet > 2022-03-05 22:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-05 22:10 | Report Abuse

Hope these basic information helps.

Posted by ahbah > 2022-03-05 22:27 | Report Abuse

skyjet, U got any oil stks ?

Posted by OTB > 2022-03-05 22:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-03-05 23:05 | Report Abuse

Ceasefire is not equal to war ended.
Second world war would not have ended if Germany and Japan have not lost the war.
One side must lose the war only then the war comes to an end. Vietnam war in 1970s ended because USA lost the Vietnam war.
By the way, CPO price was bullish even before Ukraine war started.

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-03-05 23:23 | Report Abuse

@OTB ,John
Stated cost of production can be actually quite misleading!As john has mentioned productivity or yield plays a part be it on per mt CPO or per hectare.(also transport). Administrative costs,interest(borrowings) and last but most important is selling price/policy has the biggest impact on EPS

Posted by OTB > 2022-03-05 23:28 | Report Abuse

I used this information for reference only.
At least I can estimate or project the PAT of these palm oil stocks.
No worries.
Thank you.

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-03-05 23:31 | Report Abuse

Indications are pointing to a 6100-6500 average for CPO for1Q22 Approximately a 50% jump from FY21 average of 4368 and 20% from 4Q21.Searching for those that have shown a similar 'conversion' of CPO price to EPS we look at the increase between 3Q21 and 4Q21 eps.(this is shorcut,have to track back further for consistency)These companies also have in common by selling spot price.On my list Cepat, HSPlant,Inno, MHC,SOP ,SWKplt and TSH

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-03-07 10:14 | Report Abuse

5.5% yield(dividend) over 2.5 weeks nobody wants??

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-07 11:37 | Report Abuse

Malaysia is Asia?s ?new gold ?amid market volatility -Modular
March 07, 2022 10:03 am +08
(March 7): Modular Asset Management will increase its already long exposure to ringgit-denominated assets as they are the new gold amid increased market volatility, said strategist Wai Ho Leong.

Resource exporters like Malaysia are the new gold. It is in a unique sweet spot, being Asia?s only net energy and edible oil exporter, said Singapore-based Leong.

It will start to stand out in stark contrast to Thailand, India and the Philippines, which are among the largest importers of oil, metals and food, Leong added.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-07 12:05 | Report Abuse

FCPO APRIL 2022 HIT RM7,000 AGAIN

https://www.palmoilanalytics.com/

BEST TIME TO CUTLOSS/SELL EVERY THING

ALL IN PALM OIL NOW! NOW!! NOW!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-07 12:07 | Report Abuse

OH IT'S MARCH 2020 AT RM7,000!!!

GO GO POWER RANGERS!!

Posted by Calvinharris > 2022-03-07 18:33 | Report Abuse

Esok hari terakhir untuk accumulate HSPLANT 15.5 sen DIVIDEND .

Posted by Calvinharris > 2022-03-07 18:35 | Report Abuse

My target is to collect HSPLANT around 20,000 units share for FY2022 with yummy DIVIDEND.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-07 21:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-08 07:26 | Report Abuse

Shoppers scramble for staples as food fallout from war spread

March 07, 2022 22:40 pm +08

ISTANBUL/LONDON/CAIRO (March 7): The shockwaves in global crop markets from Russia's invasion of Ukraine are now spreading to store shelves.

Worries about surging sunflower oil prices triggered heavy buying over the weekend in Turkey, as footage of citizens trying to grab tins of cheaper oil at one store went viral. In Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, prices for some unsubsidised bread have jumped in the past week.

The war has already driven wheat prices nearly 70% higher in Chicago this year and is threatening to upend global food trade ? Russia and Ukraine are vital suppliers of grains, vegetable oil, and fertilisers, which means that supply disruptions will be felt all over the world. Wheat prices have reached levels last seen during the 2008 global food-price crisis ? which helped spark widespread protests ? and a United Nations index of food prices hit a record in February.
In Turkey, sunflower oil is the main cooking oil and a key component of food spending. Images of a 18-litre tin being sold for 989 liras (US$69) spurred debates on the cost of living, while the item was not available at all on the websites of some grocery chains.

The concern over sunflower oil prices is related to imports stuck at ships at the Sea of Azov, the north-eastern tip of the Black Sea, according to Ahmet Atici, secretary-general of the Vegetable Oil Industry. The group sent a letter to the Trade Ministry earlier this month, warning that current supplies might last only to mid-April.

A trade group in the European Union has warned it could run dry of sunflower oil by a similar time, with the lost volumes from Ukraine impossible to offset .

Ukraine and Russia together account for about three quarters of global exports of sunflower oil.

Posted by ipohwhitecoffee > 2022-03-08 07:38 | Report Abuse

Just trust the process. Solid buy.

Posted by Sales > 2022-03-08 10:49 | Report Abuse

Cash rich stock, can sleep well.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-08 11:34 | Report Abuse

In HS plant AR it stated that 60% of profit will be given out as dividend

Same dividend policy like bplant

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-03-08 16:26 | Report Abuse

Calvin recommendation. Take this opportunity

Posted by joerakmo > 2022-03-08 20:20 | Report Abuse

Dependent on crop output,EPS 1Q22 of 15 sen would be good.Would be better if they paid dividend quarterly.At current price for FY22 Div yield of 6% minimum,possible 10%

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-08 22:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Golf123 > 2022-03-09 04:25 | Report Abuse

Looks a good year for Hap Seng

Posted by Goldgent > 2022-03-09 08:43 | Report Abuse

Cooking oils have more room to rally as war deepens supply fears
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cooking-oils-have-more-room-rally-war-deepens-supply-fears
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220308/2022%e6%98%af%e9%a3%9f%e5%93%81%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e5%b9%b4-%e6%a3%ae%e7%a7%8d%e6%a4%8d-%e9%a3%9f%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e7%bb%ad%e7%9c%8b%e6%b6%a8/

Posted by CCWONG > 2022-03-09 11:42 | Report Abuse

No worries, got fat dividend and reinvest.

Posted by Berlin > 2022-03-09 15:54 | Report Abuse

Good call on HS Plant, Calvintaneng. I like its high cash position and ability to pay good dividends with increasing profits in the quarters ahead. Stock price recovers dividend amount within one day of going ex! Not so great call on WTK though; high cash but weak profits because of timber losses and a stagnant share price.

Posted by CCWONG > 2022-03-10 11:02 | Report Abuse

All these propositions are assumptions.

Everything depends on supply and demand and this depends on every factors happening in the country as well as in the whole world.

Posted by CCWONG > 2022-03-10 19:44 | Report Abuse

Welcome back again to Hsplant's FFB harvest data reporting:

1. Feb'21 FFB is 39,202 ton & Av. CPO Price for Feb'21 is RM3,895.00 per ton.

2. Feb'22 FFB is 40,628 ton & Av. CPO Price for Jan'22 is RM5,930.00 per ton.

3. So, Feb'22 FFB/Feb'21 FFB is increase of 1,426 ton (3.64%).

4. But, Feb'22 CPO Price/Feb'21 CPO Price is increase RM2,035.00 per ton (52.25%).

5. So, the data as mentioned in above is still very strong.

6. Lets see Mar'22's FFB harvest & Av. CPO Price for Mar'22.

7. Apology - The previous posting got the month reported wrong.

Posted by Max2838 > 2022-03-11 12:25 | Report Abuse

On oil palm plantations,
Prices have peaked in 1st qtr of year.
Production are higher in 2nd & 4th qtrs of year.
Fer
Fertilisers are the largest cost factor and input to plantations.
Potash prices has tripled since Dec 2021.
Potash fertilisers are the main input & highest cost factor for crop yields.
Russian (3rd) & Belarus(2nd) produce more potash than Canada(1st).

Make your bets whether earnings in plantations will grow further...

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-11 16:58 | Report Abuse

Max2838,
It is not true that potash price has tripled since Dec 2021. Can you share how you get this kind of news ?
The potash price difference between Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 is merely USD30/mt or RM130/mt.
Plantation apply about 450kg/ha of potash per year. The cost increase due to higher price of potash is only (($130 x 0.45 mt )/ 4 mt CPO/ha )) = $15/mt CPO .
Most plantations have already locked in 60-70% of their 2022 fertilizer requirement thru' tenders a few months ago.
North America Potash producers have recently announced their intention to increase price by USD250-300 pmt by taking advantage of the shipment difficulty from Belarus/Russia amid the war. If this come thru' it will only affect the remaining 30-40% requirement for 2022. However, i don't think the North America potash producer wish will last as Potash shipment out of Baltic sea will quickly resume to Asia to challenge the American producer in the next 1-2 months.
The smallholders are worst affected by price increase as they procure on spot basis.



Posted by Max2838 > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

On oil palm plantations,
Prices have peaked in 1st qtr of year.
Production are higher in 2nd & 4th qtrs of year.
Fer
Fertilisers are the largest cost factor and input to plantations.
Potash prices has tripled since Dec 2021.
Potash fertilisers are the main input & highest cost factor for crop yields.
Russian (3rd) & Belarus(2nd) produce more potash than Canada(1st).

Make your bets whether earnings in plantations will grow further...

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-03-11 17:24 | Report Abuse

So many plantation stocks to choose from. Boustead Plantation, Hap Seng, KLK, Sarawak Oil Palm, Ta-ann

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2022-03-11 17:24 | Report Abuse

Too many choices in a huge dilemma

Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-03-11 19:06 | Report Abuse

@Max2838, theoretically according to agronomist, increases in ffb crop from fertilizers applications will only b realised after 2 years! Therefore, will d current high CPO price last until 2024 to compensate d high cost of fertilizers applied now n give maximum profits for oil palm plantations getting an increases in ffb production or higher yield per hectare?

Posted by lotuseater > 2022-03-11 20:15 | Report Abuse

No need to talk so much about fertilizers - if you are so worried, then just sell off the stock. Why need to put a wet blanket? Even if the fertilizer costs are up, aren’t they still making more profits compared to a year ago? Think about this, instead of looking at negatives all the time.

Posted by Plantermen > 2022-03-11 22:50 | Report Abuse

Both agronomist and a planter have their own different interpretation & perspectives on field fertilisers program. If you applied straight fertilisers application you need to do 4-6 rounds. If compound fertilisers application you need to do 2 rounds per year. If mixture is applied then perhaps 3-4 rounds. The difference is pricing between straight, mixture and compound. Last and not the least the soil conditions and the tree sampling before a planter will applied the program. As a general thumb of rule. Most estates will tender out and source their fertiliser requirements 2.months before the new calender year { except for the companies that have their own in house fertilisers and chemical division} and locked in the price for the whole year or at least 1/2year going forward. Every planter need knows the cost of production. During the last 2 years { covid pandemic, harvester issue and heavy rains} have resulted the fertilisers program delayed and carried forward into the next calender year. Knowing fertiliser prices is on the uptrend. Experienced planter would have tender extra or excess quantity for the current requirement. The risk of the higher cost & higher pricing is bear by the fertiliser company. I am not an expert or an agromist but just an ordinary layman

Posted by Calafate > 2022-03-11 23:17 | Report Abuse

Plantation Stocks: Is it too late to participate?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNnbqAF0wGw

Posted by Max2838 > 2022-03-12 01:20 | Report Abuse

If everyone on here is freaking out about high oil prices, wait until they see potash fertilizer prices.
#Fertilizer prices are reacting sharply following Russia's invasion of Ukraine as the implications begin to settle in. #Urea, #ammonia, #phosphates and #potash have charged upwards as already-tight markets face the prospect of more dramatic supply restrictions.
High Fertilizer prices will squeeze the margins of planters.
Never mind the lower margins. What will happen when imports of potash from Russia have stopped?
Fertiliser shortages may be the biggest issue we face from this Ukraine crisis.
China has already curbed fertiliser exports (urea, phosphates & potash) last year.
Canada's saskatchewan potash will likely be all absorbed by the US.
Maybe last week the potash (MOP) prices was RM2500 pmt, try to ask for quote next week (RM 4000 pmt).

Whatever it is, China is the main beneficiary from the Ukraine Crisis where it gets the oil, gas, fertilisers, wheat, palladium, aluminium, etc.... all at discounted prices and paid in CNY! Go buy some China stocks - CNPC, UnionPay, SinoFert, etc.

Posted by Max2838 > 2022-03-12 01:29 | Report Abuse

Looking forward, your plantation costs will be going up and your crop yields will be going down.

Hope you do not start betting on CPO futures where they give you vouchers & free gifts - be wary!

Posted by mrbusiness > 2022-03-12 02:33 | Report Abuse

While I agree that fertilizers price is increasing and the fertilizers company will earn more, it is illogical to think the fertilizers company will take major profit while the plantations earn less. Not logical and not possible.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-12 06:54 | Report Abuse

Factoring in higher fertilizer prices, the cost of production for well managed plantation is in the range of $1,650 - $1,950 per mt of CPO. There is huge margin buffering any increase of input costs , any correction of CPO price or drop in production. Don't blur yourself with some of the challenges in the industry and you will just miss out the great opportunity to profit from this unprecedented development in edible oil market.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-12 07:09 | Report Abuse

Fertilizer shortage does not affect oil palm plantation as much as it severely affect the short term seasonal edible oil crop like soya. Oil palm is very hardy perennial crop and with good amount nutrients reserve in plant tissues and in the ground . Oil palm withstand or survive years of zero fertilizers , months of draught, haze etc. Soya, corn and other short term seasonal crop can not.
As such, shortage of fertilizer or at exorbitant price shall give relative advantage to palm oil as it further tighten supply of competing oil.

Posted by Plantermen > 2022-03-12 07:18 | Report Abuse

Fertilisers cannot be applied during the rainy period { planter's avoid & prefer not to waste the applications } Inddition fertiliser program can be halted temp for 10 - 12 months { due to unavoidable issue} without any significant impact on the trees. Smallholders are known to withhold their fertilisers for a period of more than 12- 18 months on their palms periodically { palm trees are hardly} they need only watering and sunlight { of course the fruits may be smaller} resulting in lower extractions. I have know smaller estates using loca chicken manure to replace straight fertilisers. Chicken manure is rich in NPK. Nitrogen, Phosphorus & Potassium. This is what the oil palm requires. Only drawback is workers manuring and smelly applications. Just to share my 2 sen view

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-03-12 07:33 | Report Abuse

Oil palm plantation in Malaysia DO NOT use Ammonia gas, Ammonium Nitrate or urea as Nitrogen fertilizer. They use Ammonium Sulphate (AS) or Ammonium Chloride (AC) . AS is a byproducts from caprolactum factories and steel mills in many countries including China, Japan, Korea, Europe. AC is a byproduct of soda ash production mainly in China. AS and AC prices have gone down by 40-50% recently as compared to prices in Dec 2021 due to higher availability as the production of the main products (caproluctum, soda ash ) increased after winter/CNY festive season. AS and AC are not products of oil and gas.
The softer Nitrogen fertilizer price help to offset some of the impact from potentially higher potash price, I don't believe that the north American Potash producers can have absolute pricing power in potash amid Russian-Ukraine war.
Potash from belarus and russia are mainly shipped from St Petersburg via baltic sea which is not a war zone. All the potash volume sold by belarus and russia to US and Europe will be available to Asian buyers at a discount and displacing the north american producer market share in Asia. In the end, the American and European farmers get squeezed by the North American producers and Asia farmers enjoy price advantage from belarus/russia.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-03-12 08:10 | Report Abuse

Few oil palm trees at the community park near my house still bearing fruits abundantly. I didn't see any fertilizer applied to the trees for years.