HSplant is the most likely candidate for privatisation after ijmplant. HSplant Is in nett cash position, 80% owned by hap Seng consolidated, trading well below NTA and seriously undervalued. Only 20% free float is easy for privatisation. Afterall, there is no benefit at all for hap Seng to keep it's 80% owned subsidiary listed .
Over the years , the controlling shareholder has bought so much that the free float share has gone down slightly below 20% of the total capitalization. In order to meet Bursa listing requirement of min 20% free float , they sold a few lots every now and then over the last year. My take is they are just buying a little bit of time to take the company private. If there is no intention to privatise this net cash company why the hell soak up to 80% stake?
In today's StarBiz,. the headline article on plantations M&A is very interesting. In there , there is valuation of plantation brownfield estate by the industry expert Mr Chandran . Mr Chandran has the credentials to speak about this subject. On the other hand,. those IB analysts who only work from computer desktop in a cosy office tell you half baked story.
Just to share some historical data of past 10 years . Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)
Thplant. $2.45 Sop. $6.62 MHC. $1.46 Cepat. $1.18 Swkplt. $3.24 Taann. $4.50 Hsplant. $3.18 Bplant. $1.34 Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.
CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012 CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday. Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012. After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012. On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence! I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .
Don't be silly to mislead the members here, you don't know why government asking citizens to buy more food to keep as storage because of strong winter season, not because of high demand of palm oil
Controlling shareholders paid $2.30 to buy over 15% it's share from Innoprise plantation very recently and this increase their shareholding from 53.04% to 68.04%. I think privatisation will come a year later and the offer price will have to be higher than $2.30 to succeed.
Meanwhile, enjoy the good dividend payout of consistently 60$ min. FY2021 EPS shall be around 23 sen and dividend shall be about 14sen including the 1.5 sen ist interim already paid.
CPO avg Q4 21 is $5,154 which is 17% higher than last Q.. HSPLANT's Jan-Sept 21 EPS is 16.22 sen Est EPS Q4 21 is 7.5 sen FY21 EPS shall be 23.7 sen. Share price @ 4/1/22 $1.97 PE is( 197/23.7) = 8.3X % return on share price is (23.7/197)=12% If dividend payout is 60%, DY is 7.2%
On 25th Aug, Hapseng Consolidated acquired 120mil shares from 2 largest shareholder Innoprise at 2.20. Now Hapseng own almost about 75% on hsplant, i can smell privatisation
In June 2020 and November 2021, HAPSENG offered to buy 1175.8ha (552ha + 623.8ha) from HSPLANT for 160.9m (76.0m + 84.9m), or RM136,843/ha. It is much higher than the market price of 80000/ha. I think it is because the estates are at good location and are potential for property development
If HAPSENG really want to privatize HSPLANT, it should not have made the above offers. Just need to add another 440m, make up to a total of 600m, to offer RM3.00 /share to privatize HSPLANT.
The EV/ha for HSPLANT estates: 1) Market Price RM2.05, EV = 47000/ha, very very cheap. 2) If to offer RM2.50/share, EV = 57000/ha, very cheap. 3) If to offer RM3.00/share, EV = 69000/ha, still cheap. 4) If to offer RM3.50/share, EV = 80000/ha, fair price.
Recent deals: 1) KMLOONG bought Sabah oil palm estate at 80000/ha. 2) KLK bought IJMPLNT, the valuation were, Sabah estate at 80000/ha and Indonesia estate at 40000/ha.
My guess is: HAPSENG may be intend to dispose off the plantation business, but wants to keep the above 1175.8ha land for property development.
Hsplant's own FFB production in Q4 2021 is 164,965 mt (Q4 2020 178,081 mt), down by 7% y-o-y which is not bad in view of worsening labour shortage. However, CPO price for Q4 2021 is up by 54% y-o-y ($5,154 vs $3.341). Expect to announce very impressive Q4 2021 earning growth.
It is very encouraging to see Jan 2022 production increased to 52,187 mt (Jan 2021 42,635 mt), up 22% y-o-y. At the same time CPO price is 43% higher y-o-y ($5,354 vs $3,748) . Will see an explosive earning for Q1 2022 too.
Like this mana boleh? Announce good result pulak. Recalled Monday morning, shot to a high of 2.67 but by the end of day, dropped back to 2.40, causing a shooting star candlestick formation appeared in the technical chart. Next day, all were so worried, some decided to cabut & caused the stock to drop another 5 cents to close at 2.35. Besok pagi buat party lagi, tak tahu EPF boss marah tak?
Q4 EPS 11.8sen and dividend 15.5sen is excellent. Realized avg CPO selling price for Q4 $5,103 which is excellent.
FY2021 EPS 28.01 sen exceed my estimates. Total dividend FY2021 is 17sen. Dividend payout is 60% following the policy consistently. PE is only 8.4x based on today closing price of $2.35. DY is 7.2% is deemed very generous. Also note that ex date for the 15.5sen dividend go ex 9/3/2022 which is very quick action by the Company. Important to note that the company is sitting with $418 mil solid cash without any borrowing!
I think FY2022 earning and Dividend will be surpass FY2021 by 50%! This share shall worth over $4.00.
Russia and Ukraine are 1st and 2nd world largest sunflower oil producer and exporter. The palm oil price will increase to higher level if the tension between the two countries get worst, thus, benefit other vegoil export country like Malaysia.
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 3089 views | 2 d ago
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New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
UndukNgadau
433 posts
Posted by UndukNgadau > 2021-05-30 19:34 | Report Abuse
I'll buy more HSPlant on Monday