patrick13, it is yet to say that the labor issue is solved... Homeriz took in 1st batch of foreign labor by late Oct and it needs time to train these new hires... and previously the company did not dare to take more orders due to this issue... so it takes time to ramp up these new hires and then to take in new orders... i suppose next quarter core revenue will not be good as well (same last last quarter)... could be slightly offset by the stronger USD... it will takes months to solve this foreign labor competency issue...
btw, pls note that the boss started selling the shares since early Dec until now... so that may mean what I said is correct... I do not expect good Q4 result... i will KIV this share... yes, it is a good company, but i will not buy now...
homeriz is same as hevea, fairly priced now.. Hi Patrick13, HLB target price is reasonable at 1.10.. why? read this from the edge:
Over the last 12 months, Homeritz’s share price has declined by 12.71%. Last Friday, it closed at RM1.03, giving it a market capitalisation of RM309.01 million. It is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-earnings ratio (PER) of 11.03 times compared with the industry’s average of 8.9 times.
ryan, u have to realize one fact - yes, homeriz has good fundamentals, but it is in the same situation as Hevea that both of them are fairly priced in already... if u buy into either one of them, there is low chance of making good profit..
let me make one last blow to him on his idixtic and biased comments (for his personal agenda i guess, if not why spend so much time here... quite obvious, he missed the boat and is trying to pull down the share price - but who is he? does he have such influence.. haha.. )..
1) Debt of Evergreen (which is manageable and reasonable for the industry it is involved in) - he keeps saying that Hevea has zero debt but Evergreen has debt.. I have told him that Hevea is more like a furniture company as its 60% sales are from RTA (ready to assemble furniture) which are less capex intensive. Where as currently Evergreen manufactures 80% of raw MDF so it is more capex intensive in terms of the machineries and maintenance. They are not in the exact industries so you just can't compare directly.. he has not even answered my question on this one.. Yes, evergreen will target to build more RTA (current 5% of total revenue), but their main focus is still MDF at current stage. So, until one day when Evergreen has its RTA sales reach 50-60% of total revenue, then only it is fair to directly compare with Hevea on the debt/net cash...
2) Debt of Evergreen - again, let's discuss if the debt is bad or actually good for evergreen. We know that many business raise loans to expand. We have to examine whether their profit margin is higher than the interest they need to pay for the loan. Last year (2015 full year), evergreen net profit margin is 9.1%. This year (up to 9 months), due to forex loss, the net profit margin dropped to 7.3%. But this is still higher than the bank interest rate that they are paying for... example, if you earn RM10 additional but you pay RM5 for interest, u still get additional (net RM5) for the expansion... so why not to expand if you have net profit from there?
3) Dividend - he is again very biased and misleading here.. 2013-14 were bad years for Evergreen, we all know and admit that. This was due to the intense competition of MDF makers within ASEAN (as 2006-08 were good years and many new MDF makers ventured into this business can caused over-supply) However, as mentioned by Evergreen management, many small and incompetitive MDF players have been washed out (go bankrupt) during the bad years of 2012-2014 due to losses.. but evergreen as the biggest MDF player in ASEAN with strong footing and experience has weathered thru the storm and grow bigger now.. in fact, they ate up the market shares of those closed-shop small factories,.. so from 2013-14, we cannot expect evergreen to pay dividends during tough years.. why I said he is biased? When Hevea was in deep financial woes during 2009-2010, why did sxckperformer not question: why Hevea did not pay out dividend during tat time? see? he is manipulating his words...
4) Dividend - in latest AGM, Evergreen management has approved to give out at least 40% of net profit to shareholders... so, with the expansion plan almost done (will require less capex, and have more cash)... we can expect more dividend to come.. we invest in the future of Evergreem.. but this joker keeps talking about the past.. and he totally kept quiet about Hevea's past on the bad years.. and when raider said Hevea almost went bankrupt.. what did this sxckperformer say? Trump went bankrupt 3 times but now is a US president.. haha.. funny right? we know it is not end of day for bankruptcy, but we dislike his biased view on evergreen.. Hevea's past was bad, but it is ok.. Evergreen's past was bad, but it is not OK.. see it?
sxckperformer.. see.. i wasted so much time to explain to some idixt like u.. quickly thank me la.. coz i "put money in ur pocket" d...
i have answered all his stupid and manipulated questions, but he has not even answered my one question:
is evergreen a furniture stock at current stage? is it fair to compare its capex intensive business with "pure/mainly" furniture makers which are less capex intensive?
see... farker sxckperformer is confirmed an idiot again... i have told him many times that Evergreen is not categorized as "furniture stock" yet (at least not for now) as their current RTA portion is about 5% only.
And many other posts (including the one by Ricky Yeo) compare among "furniture stocks"...
and I have explained that this sxckperformer is not giving fair comparison to compare Evergreen with other "furniture stocks"...
until today he has not answered my questions... see? no-balls... run away from my questions..
Agree... P/B might not be suitable because they don't rely much on asset gain. Strong cash flow seems to be more important. Agree with Dolly on Evergreen not being fully a furniture company.
Gabriel and Js Goh, i have to admit that you have your points too... but for me, best if the P/BV is not too high as in case (no one knows) the company goes into financial crisis and has to liquidate its business... net tangible asset is very important as it determines how much the investors can get back....
anyway, i do agree that Homeriz is a great company, just that i think it is fairly priced in now... if it does not go down more to allow some margin of safety, i would not buy it...
Good is borrowing already become nil. Meanwhile, High profit also benefit from weakening MYR. Since the Company hold RM55 million cash, they need to make smart investment to get back better return, either high yield interest or further acquisition of capex.
If u want to buy stocks based on book value then there are tons of it out there. Homeriz is a a NET CASH company with ZERO DEBTS. No one will buy ur Evergreen lah so save ur gas loh.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Patrick13
1,971 posts
Posted by Patrick13 > 2017-01-12 21:58 | Report Abuse
Since labour shortage issue solved, in addition with strengthening USD, the coming quarter result sure will be better than last quarter :)