Even if you believed that glove counter is at the bottom, it is more prudent to buy from several counters topglove, supermax, kossan, etc. not to put all biji in one bakul.
Initially I was thinking of topping up at 6.00 to bring my average price down from 9.00 to 8.50, then when the price dropped to RM5.50 I got cold feet. Thinking of it now, even if I averaged down to RM8.50, I'd still be stuck for some time. However if I doubled down at RM6.00, my average would go down to RM7.50 and a bounce back to those levels once the clouds of uncertainty clears may be more likely. Only if I had a crystal ball.
Don't worry, when the next QR comes out late October, early November, there will be another chance to top up.
The only reason I am not topping up is because I have too much gloves in my portfolio. Already had 40% in gloves, waiting for opportunities to reduce to 30%.
I made the same mistake. In my case a similar percentage of my portfolio is in Harta. Luckily I got out of Supermax and Top Glove with minimal loss but put that money in Harta instead, averaging down. Was blinded by the quarterly profits and all the analyst TPs. The only saving grace is that the raminder of my portfolio is doing ok so I can sit this out. But I doubt it's going back to RM9+ anytime soon. RM7.50 maybe. But too risky to double down. Since I am not selling, will waut and see what happens when next quarterly results come out end Oct/early Nov.
Better than the last few weeks when it was consistently going down. the trend seems to suggest there is strong buying activity at this levels where someone is mopping up what little that is being sold?
Transaction volume very low. Retailers dumping but nobody is interested. If there is a few big buyers, price may shoot up. Let's see if there is any activity in the afternoon.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with Harta's performance under declining ASP. So the next QR would be crucial when Harta operates at below capacity (covid measures) + shutdown during EMCO. If QR is above market expectation, price may fly. If QR is below expectation, then matilah... floor opened, likely drop below RM5.
Well if it really goes to below RM5.00, I may need to serious consider doubling down and bring my average price down to RM7.00 which would be a decent recovery price once the uncertainties go away.
This is a solid Company with very good management which makes billions in profit.
If it was above RM5.00 pre pandemic, it would certainly be a bargain below RM5.00 post pandemic.
Whilst I hope that doesnt happen, I am not selling but will be adding if it does.
Hopefully Harta continues to reward its loyal shareholders with decent dividends.
China’s power limited and restricted output policies both pressured the demand for the silicon metal, further caused the raw material prices to increase dramatically, including aluminum alloy ingot.
In the past two months, the metal silicon showed an around 300% increment, which further led the aluminum alloy ingot price to skyrocket.
By some of the sources, the domestic aluminum alloy ingot price in China this September has increased by nearly 20% within a month.
Pmbtech, Pmbtech Reminds me of the glove mania back in 2020 when topglove price was approaching RM30 and Harta RM20, it seems like prices could go up forever, but at the back of our mind, we know the pandemic will one day end, and that suddenly occurred when Russia announced their vaksin, then China, then the U.S., glove started to trend downwards very quickly, probably many got burnt. Bang_miskin also kena burnt a little, but sudah take some profit, cannot complain.
Bang_miskin believe one could untung2 besar from Pmbtech, or from SAM or from Genetec. But you have to be careful, a sudden change in sentiments, your investment can go from big paper profit to big paper losses. Bang_miskin's too old and too conservative with money.
Again not a buy/sell call, make your own investment decisions. Bang_miskin just like to lepakking and omong2 kosong.
Thanks for the news observatory, While ASP is higher than pre-pandemic levels, there's little info about the profit margin. Will it be the same, higher or lower than pre-pandemic levels? Harta financial report over the coming years will give us more clue. I began to think the pricing of Harta is quite fair, because there is still quite a lot of uncertainty with the market/profit margin after the pandemic.
I believe we should be able to buy below RM6, so there is no need to buy above RM6. it is definitely possible to buy below RM5, especially if there is over-capacity in the industry.
@observatory, Harta's capacity is 63 b in 2021 [ AR 2021,pg34]. By the way, do you know the cost of production nitrile glove of Intco ? Somebody told me that Harta cost is around USD20...
Maybank recommends sell for Harta and Kossan (previously Topglove). Bloodbath for these two counters today.
Surprised with Maybank's recommendation since it was considered one of the top buy stocks for 2021. They mentioned that price could fall below pre-pandemic level. I personally don't think it is likely from the news I've heard... but yeah sentiment is from bad to worse.
@rl68, Check out Note B3 (page 10) of the latest quarterly report ending 30 Jun (1QFY22). It provides more info. The four plants under NGC 1.5 will add 19b piece per annum capacity. When fully completed, total capacity will reach 63b per annum. Based on prior communication, NGC 1.5 is expected to be fully completed in 2 to 3 year time, meaning 63b is only reached in 2023 or 2024 assuming no change in plan.
As of 30 Jun 2021, the total capacity = 63b – 19b – (2.7b * 8/10) = about 42b. The last part represents the last 2 lines under installation at Plant 7 of NGC 1.0.
Based on 1QFY22 data, given the shipment data (some analysts provided the estimate) one may work out the ASP (= revenue divided by shipment) and unit cost (calculate from margin). My estimate of the unit cost then was about USD25 per 1,000.
Cost is declining now. Raw materials like Acrylonitrile and Butadiene make up about half of the product cost. Some reports say the prices are trending down.
I don’t know Intco nitrile production cost. I read some Intco investors quoting very low figure but I can’t verify.
A short cut is to compare the quarterly operating margin which will indicate relative competitiveness. You can find that from Yahoo Finance. However, take note that Intco has sizeable PVC glove business whereas Harta is almost pure nitrile.
Everyday talk about short sellers no sian one meh, there must be a reason gloves are being short ? Ever wonder why…… cause the stock price is going south and best to short a weak industry
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
JovaneChua
525 posts
Posted by JovaneChua > 2021-10-07 01:48 | Report Abuse
Used all my salary and savings to buy at RM 5.99. Ini kalilah. This is the bottom