Posted by Anxious > 2021-10-12 12:27 | Report Abuse

I am a novice. Never bought any shares prior to 2020. Only saved in FD, ASM , PRS etc.

During the 2008/09 crash, I didnt hv spare cash to invest and missed it. I then told myself will do so in the next crash.

In March 2020 when markets tumbled, I didnt even have a brokerage account. With the MCO and all it took me 1 month to open my account with Hong Leong.

I then started buying shares overseas. Bought HSBC, Apple , Shell, Alibaba etc. Except Alibabab, made money on the rest.

In January I bought Harta and Top Glove when it dropped and did a quick trade and made RM30k in a week plus.

Got excited and started buying gloves. I now only have Harta. rest sold with small loss. Kept averaging down until a got stuck at an average price of RM9.

Thats my story guys. Harta was not meant to be a long term buy but just got stuck due to inexperience.

Posted by newuser9021 > 2021-10-12 12:54 | Report Abuse

just sharing about EPF - I can be wrong though
They buy and sell within the same counter on frequent basis. See, everyday they have to cash out to have cash in their portfolio and use it to buy other attractive counters. At the same time, they receive money from depositors and they use this money to buy back from the same counter or use it on other counter. The time you must be very cautious about EPF is when they do straight selling on huge volume across the days. Check out SerbaDK shareholding EPF status https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5279.jsp

don't blindly follow EPF

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-12 12:55 | Report Abuse

Looks like you plan to trade more than keeping Harta for long term.
If you plan to trade Harta, RM9 seems very improbable this year, no matter how good the next two QR turns out. It would be lucky to even reached RM7 by year end. If you plan to cut loss, do it during rebounds. If you plan to keep for at least another year, just put it in the freezer, but don't go overboard like I did.

For me I plan to keep Harta for at least another year or two. Started accumulating months ago at RM10. Recently I made the mistake of purchasing way too much during the process of "averaging down price". Very dumb in retrospect. Now I am saddling 40% in gloves, way too much to my liking no matter how profitable gloves will be in the future. Plan to trim to 30% when price reaches RM6, expecting 10-15k loss during the process. I have experienced far greater losses, so this is the bullet I am willing to bite.

Posted by jolynce > 2021-10-12 12:56 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing your story. Even the most experienced trader or investor makes mistakes.. the more you think you know the market, the more it'll prove you otherwise. Seriously. So, don't lose hope. I like what Ricky Yeo said about Harta. That should give you some consolation. I am lucky in a way as I only entered glove stocks around late April/ Early May when the prices are off their peak. It was still high compared to current prices but I was able to average down along the way to a comfortable level. And I have to keep reminding myself that this is an investment..like that Ricky mentioned.

"Posted by Ricky Yeo > Oct 12, 2021 12:06 PM | Report Abuse

That aside, if anyone that is investing, too often people get influenced by the share price. If you're buying for the long term aka betting on the fundamental of the business, you should assess the business i.e profit, cash flow, ROC, not where the share price is going. You shouldn't let the price or sentiment affect what you think Harta should be worth."

Posted by Anxious > Oct 12, 2021 12:27 PM | Report Abuse

I am a novice. Never bought any shares prior to 2020. Only saved in FD, ASM , PRS etc.

During the 2008/09 crash, I didnt hv spare cash to invest and missed it. I then told myself will do so in the next crash.

In March 2020 when markets tumbled, I didnt even have a brokerage account. With the MCO and all it took me 1 month to open my account with Hong Leong.

I then started buying shares overseas. Bought HSBC, Apple , Shell, Alibaba etc. Except Alibabab, made money on the rest.

In January I bought Harta and Top Glove when it dropped and did a quick trade and made RM30k in a week plus.

Got excited and started buying gloves. I now only have Harta. rest sold with small loss. Kept averaging down until a got stuck at an average price of RM9.

Thats my story guys. Harta was not meant to be a long term buy but just got stuck due to inexperience.

Posted by jolynce > 2021-10-12 12:59 | Report Abuse

ah yes, if you don't intend to keep for long term, then I guess you need to cut loss at the right price for you.

Posted by Dividendplayer > 2021-10-12 13:36 | Report Abuse

I must say, the difference in quality and class of the comments found here is like night and day. Compared to the circus at the other gloves i3 forum. Commendable truly. Dont be disheartened, perhaps some opportunity cost for now for some but eventually prices will and must reflect value.

Posted by Foreign_Invest > 2021-10-12 14:11 | Report Abuse

OMG, So many stuck at so high price RM9? I bought at 6, collect dividend and sold at 6.1. Anyway, if stuck so high price no need watch this counter everyday. Take a long long time to reach there. Just practice to take it with presence of mind. This counter short period will only fluctuate at 5-6 range.

Posted by Anxious > 2021-10-12 14:13 | Report Abuse

Thanks everyone for your comments. I feel much better after reading them.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-12 14:54 | Report Abuse

OMG, So many stuck at so high price RM9?
_________________________________________________________________________
Around April 2021 when the delta strain surged, glove price did trend upwards, for only a month. Harta went from RM9 to about RM11. Naively thinking that glove prices rebounded, Made my first purchase at RM10. After several purchases, with the last one at RM6, I managed to bring it down to about RM7.5.

It wasn't all that bad. Last year, I bought some at RM13, sold all at RM18. Riding that glove mania was fun.

Posted by Foreign_Invest > 2021-10-12 16:57 | Report Abuse

harta is mystery counter now. Suddenly last 10 mins +0.25

Posted by addyloh > 2021-10-12 16:59 | Report Abuse

really shock me, shoot up suddenly

Posted by addyloh > 2021-10-12 17:03 | Report Abuse

the same thing happen to Kossan also, but now as much like Harta

Posted by jolynce > 2021-10-12 18:24 | Report Abuse

Must take IB's words with a huge pinch of salt, otherwise wouldn't have made money buying low this morning!

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-12 18:34 | Report Abuse

This is my valuation approach.

First estimate the net profit to shareholders (PATAMI) in future years until it reaches normalization. For example, assume FY22 is still above normal earning; FY23 is below normal earning due to price war; and FY24 is return to normal earning.

The earning for each year = average annual capacity x utilization x ASP (convert to RM) x net profit margin.

Annual capacity for FY22 to FY24 can be estimated from the announced capacity expansion plan from 44b (to be achieved soon) to 63b in the next 2 to 3 years. Can assume utilization of 80% or 85%.

During the AGM it was mentioned that ASP below USD30 didn’t make sense from profit margin point of view. So I assume that ASP for FY22 is around USD30. However as raw material prices continue to drop and competition heats up, ASP could drop below USD30 further down the road. Looking back at history, ASP was USD53 per 1,000 in FY08, USD 38-40 during FY10-12, USD 23-26 in FY16-19, and USD21 in FY20. With technological improvement and competition there is no reason why ASP will not resume its historical downtrend.

Past data also provides guidance on net margin. It was >20% up to FY14. After that there was a gradual decline from 18% in FY15 to 15% in FY20. (For comparison, just before the pandemic Top Glove net margin was 8%). As competition heats up, it’s possible that future net margin could eventually settle at a lower end.

By making different assumptions on the capacity, utilization, ASP and net margin, we can estimate the net profit for FY22, FY23 and FY24. Divide by 3,428 million shares outstanding will yield the EPS.

Borrowing from the method by Pankaj C. Kumar, we can work out the dividend per share for FY22 and FY23 by multiply EPS with 60%, which is the payout ratio of Harta. To make the estimate more complete, FY23 dividend can be discounted based on cost of equity. Lets say COE is 10%, then FY23 DPS is divided by 1.1 (=1 + 10%).

The main part of the value lies in FY24 (assumed to be the normalized year). The value = FY24 EPS * normal year PE multiplier.

Before the pandemic, the mean PE multiplier is at the high 20s given the double-digit growth rate and leading industry practice. However, if Chinese competition has successfully changed the competitive landscape (actually it remains to be seen), a lower PE multiplier will be warranted.

How low could it be? For that I will look for a benchmark outside of the rubber glove industry. For example, lets take Wellcall which shares many of Harta's characteristics – an OEM rubber hose manufacturer which sells to 100+ countries; above 60% dividend payout and respectable growth. But it doesn’t command industry leading position. Its past 5 year average PE is 17X.

Even with stiffer competition Harta is likely to command a better position than Wellcall, so should be worth more than 17X PE. With further consideration of liquidity and ESG factor, the normalized PE multiplier should comfortably stay above 20. The multiplier should probably range from low 20s to high 20s (assuming Chinese competition fizzles out).

After working out the value of of FY24 EPS * normal year PE multiplier, it should be discounted back to present value. It can be divided by 1.1 * 1.1 = 1.21. Adding the values with the DPS in FY22 and FY23 will yield the fair value of the stock.

By repeating this exercise on a spreadsheet with various combinations of assumed parameters, one can get a range of possible values for Harta.

I have more confidence in this range of values approach than the X standard deviation from mean approach as used by some analysts.

Posted by risekita8 > 2021-10-12 19:12 | Report Abuse

Hi, any comment for today price?

Posted by Loh Kok Wai W > Oct 11, 2021 9:27 PM | Report Abuse

glove counter still downtrend....Harta ...below 5.00..

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-12 19:42 | Report Abuse

I have a question for @observatory, why would price war last for one year during 2023 and end around 2024? Wouldn't price war prolong for another year or two, making 2024 (and potentially 2025) earnings below normal?

Responding to @risekita8, I see two groups of investor, one group that is willing to sell at any price (probably due to short selling, or poor glove sentiments) and the other group who believes that Harta fair value is above current market price. For the past few days, I observed sales in small batches (former group, probably retailers and short sellers) followed by occasional large batches (larger funds, possibly EPF)

I would not be surprised that EPF is buying large batches at 4:45pm. We shall see after a couple of days later.

Posted by risekita8 > 2021-10-12 20:28 | Report Abuse

EPF still disposing the shares?

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-12 20:31 | Report Abuse

@bang_miskin, I just made up the assumption. Logically there should be three phases - above norm, below norm and eventually return to normal margin. For simplicity I assign them to FY22, FY23 and FY24.

Making the normalized year earlier or later than FY24 doesn't make much of a difference to the final valuation. For example, if normalized year is in FY25, the value of normal year (FY25) EPS * normal PE multiplier will be discounted at 1.1 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 1.33 (instead of 1.1 * 1.1 = 1.21). However, given the global demand may continue to grow at around 10% per annum, capacity and therefore revenue & EPS may grow at about the same rate, offsetting the discounting effect.

The most important factors that determine the fair value will be the normalized profit margin and PE multiplier. Get that roughly right and the valuation result will be about right.

Posted by BursaRangers > 2021-10-12 21:03 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/BursaRangersTechnicalPicks/2021-10-12-story-h1592027000-BursaRangers_Daily_Technical_Picks_13_October_2021.jsp

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-12 21:38 | Report Abuse

I see, thanks for your explanation @observatory

Posted by observatory > 2021-10-12 22:06 | Report Abuse

@bang_miskin, forgot to add that Harta has a net cash of ~90sen per share. A fraction of the cash may be added to the final value too.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-13 09:47 | Report Abuse

Morning all,

Interesting price movement. Price shot up 20sen in 15 minutes.

Recent price movement (before QR end of this month) suggests that price may be closed to the bottom (RM6). To me price below RM6 is a buy.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-13 10:26 | Report Abuse

Contrary to Maybank's recommendation, some institution/funds are clearly mopping up Harta in large quantities.

Posted by IdleMoney66 > 2021-10-13 10:26 | Report Abuse

Oi Kim Eng, I thought you said harta worth 4.99. How come?

Posted by IdleMoney66 > 2021-10-13 10:27 | Report Abuse

Is it after dividend adjustment ke? Bodoh la ni Kim Eng

Posted by IdleMoney66 > 2021-10-13 10:30 | Report Abuse

Study so hard to be analyst, lagi worse than Mak Nasi Lemak. Tak tau kira harga dan tak ada moral juga analyst teruk sanggat

Posted by Anxious > 2021-10-13 10:30 | Report Abuse

Bang Miskin, hopefully the worst is over. It would be great if it stabilizes around RM6.00 and then slowly moves upwards. I am realistic that the best it could do this year is probably about RM7.50 but if we continue to get decent dividends, I am happy with that. Although Im cognisant that it may suddenly nose dive towards RM5.00 as anything is possible.

A lot of negatively came about due to possible increased supply from China but with its energy crisis they may now rethink that strategy as it more be better to allocate such resources elsewhere instead of low margin products like gloves, especially with ASPs continuing to drop.

Lets just hope for the best.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-13 10:30 | Report Abuse

What news trigger such sudden price movement?

Posted by IdleMoney66 > 2021-10-13 10:31 | Report Abuse

Semua org nak cari makan. Kim Eng ni susah la macam ni

Posted by IdleMoney66 > 2021-10-13 10:31 | Report Abuse

51,766,008 Rss on 13 Oct

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-13 10:35 | Report Abuse

Anxious, hard to say if price stabilises around RM6. Two months ago, I was pretty convinced that price stabilises at RM7. Look where we are now. :)

On the other hand, large fluctuation in price makes it a good counter for trading. I am not so much of a day trader, but occasionally, I have bought and sold some for a small profit.

Posted by Anxious > 2021-10-13 10:56 | Report Abuse

Ya, Maybank , Public Bank all hardly move.

But even early this year Harta could move like 50 sen a day. However I am not interested in short term trading anymore. I just cant stomach it.

Last year I bought Shell at an average price of 10 Pounds by , then tried to trade but it went up after the vaccines came out. Luckily I managed to get back in at 11 pounds. I have since kept it and have been enjoying dividends at about 4% + pa. Its now gone up to 17 pounds plus. My TP is 22 pounds and there is a possibility it may get there next year. I may then exit Shell. Hopefully the profit there will cushion my losses in Harta.

Posted by Mini2021 > 2021-10-13 11:39 | Report Abuse

KImENG said Harta Rm 3.99 ...now KO ady

Posted by risekita8 > 2021-10-13 12:24 | Report Abuse

Luckily today we see it start with green

Posted by stockpick2me > 2021-10-13 12:42 | Report Abuse

Long term value stock

Posted by jolynce > 2021-10-13 14:05 | Report Abuse

yesterday's closing was amazing. I bought in the morning, queued to sell at 5.78 but after pre-close, it was done at 5.97! Felt like Christmas came early..Wish we can see more of price action like that :) Today queuing to sell at 6.25.. see if lady luck still shines. LOL!

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-13 14:10 | Report Abuse

Price movement indicates that some funds see good value in this stock. However poor sentiment still remains. When funds are not accumulating, selloffs put pressure on the price. Before next QR in 2 weeks price will occassionally fall below RM6, good time to accumulate before going up again.

What happens after QR is anyone's guess. What is the prediction on Harta's next QR? At, above, or below market expectation?

Posted by jolynce > 2021-10-13 14:18 | Report Abuse

@bang_miskin Hard to say.. there's that few weeks of EMCO where they had to shut down, but who filled the gap left by the import ban on TG? Matrade website showed an increase in rubber exports in Aug. So... hard to say.

Posted by Anxious > 2021-10-13 17:27 | Report Abuse

Previously when Quarterly Results good also the price went down. Can you imagine if its bad. The next 2 weeks going to be full of suspense. Best case scenario is whoever is buying pushes price up to RM7.00 before QR and we get a better than expected QR to bump the price up above RM7.50. That would be fantastic but doubt if the short sellers and IBs will allow that.

Posted by risekita8 > 2021-10-13 20:26 | Report Abuse

EPF disposing again and again

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 792,200 shares on 08-Oct-2021.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-13 22:06 | Report Abuse

The recent rebound gave me some hope because some funds sees value in this counter. I took a very small profit this afternoon and invest in a more stable sector (banking). Now I am not too concerned with the large price movement, if it rises to RM7, I'll take profit (bought some months ago at around RM6.5), if it falls to RM5 and below I'll top up with my spare change (or from selling recovery stocks). Large price fluctuation in both directions makes this counter ideal for trading.

EPF did dispose last Friday, but did they buy any in the last two days of rebound? Have to wait till next week to find out.

Posted by Anxious > 2021-10-14 07:55 | Report Abuse

Hopefully it stays above RM6.00. That would be a good sign, I think.

Also, should know what EPF has been doing the last few days. Up to Oct 8, seems to hv been selling.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-14 09:24 | Report Abuse

Wow morning boost! Approaching RM6.25! Other glove counters are recovering too!

Posted by khatulistiwa1234 > 2021-10-14 09:41 | Report Abuse

Syndicate pending full force pull above 7.80 today , see to believe , POWER ROOF PULLING < BREAK ROOF TOP POWER ROOF .

Posted by goody99 > 2021-10-14 09:42 | Report Abuse

for short term trade, I would suggest you sell when its share price is above RM6, and buy back when it drops below RM6. To me, any rebound is a sell because this has been happening again and again.

Posted by bang_miskin > 2021-10-14 09:48 | Report Abuse

Agree. For the next week or two, below RM6 is a buy, can take profit above RM6. After next QR report comes out, price reference will shift, whether up or down is anyone's guess.

Posted by IdleMoney66 > 2021-10-14 11:46 | Report Abuse

44,311,800 RSS on 14 Oct

Posted by IdleMoney66 > 2021-10-14 11:47 | Report Abuse

51,766,008 Rss on 13 Oct
44,311,800 RSS on 14 Oct

7,454,000 RSS closed

Posted by khatulistiwa1234 > 2021-10-14 12:06 | Report Abuse

Parlimen latest news , HARTA not wind flow taxes .

Posted by khatulistiwa1234 > 2021-10-14 12:07 | Report Abuse

ALL GLOVE STEADY HANDSOME BACK immediately effect .