Posted by Dakewlest > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

What happened?

Posted by calvintaneng > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-06-12-story-h1508760038-A_TALE_OF_3_GLOVES_IN_PICTURES_COMFORT_GLOVE_TOPGLOVE_SUPERMAX_Calvin_T

Posted by mf > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

rebound

Posted by findfreedom > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Something I don't understand. Is this forum so powerful? Can posting here really influence the price greatly? I saw people quick to come to defend when their favorite counter being attacked. I saw people spamming advertising their favorite counter. 😅

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@findfreedom nah, price are rarely moved by retailers. But that doesnt mean its pointless to discuss about the counter, reading different perspectives helps one to learn. So long those perspectives are not unfounded and full of sh!t.

Posted by mf > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

hold

Posted by PennyStock123 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

hold

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Agree, hold. Don't come in if you're not ready.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This is the statement that down the stock in the news:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/09/stronger-earnings-on-the-horizon-for-top-glove

"However, the group expects flattish sales volume in January and February due to the front-loading effects of the US customers purchasing from Chinese glove makers before the imposition of a 50% tariff effective this month compared with a 8% to 10% month-on-month (m-o-m) growth in November and December 2024."

Lets say this is true, it still doesn't matter for long term investors. We will see better results after Q1-25. However, I still anticipate improving results coming from Q4-24 and Q1-25. On the basis that US buyer do fear order and delivery time lag may cross into 2025 and ended with tariff impose upon arrival. 50% is a big gamble for delivery before 2025.

And on "front-loading" effect. C'mon it's not like US buyers have INFINITE amount of cash to just order 20% or even more. They order base on demand, storage capacity and cashflow because glove is NOT gonna run-out. They still can order from Msia gloves. So the only factor is pricing. Again, glove being a narrow margin product, would China be selling close to cost price or you would rather sell SLIGHTLY lower ASP to secure SLIGHTLY higher volume. SLIGHTLY lower ASP will definitely NOT secure a MUCH higher volume. This is NOT a LELONG scenario where China glove gonna close shop. This is a scenario where "this is the last chance I make money from US" so I try to make as much as I can.... either HIGHER ASP or HIGHER VOLUME. So with this opposing factors cancel each other out, the "front-loading" effect is insignificant.

Since we establish ASP to be SLIGHTLY lower, the biggest gamble is 50% tariff in 2025. I believe in Nov and Dec, most US buyers already placed their order with Msia glove makers. Safest route is to order from Msia or Thailand. 50% tariff or SLIGHTLY lower ASP? This is a no brainer.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@Chipee yeah the sales volume increase will be reduced by any preload in late 2024. But i'm also not sure if Trump's promises of those tariff increase are priced in, cause, I don't think its so easy for him to simply raise Tariff like he claim.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Correction:
And on "front-loading" effect. C'mon it's not like US buyers have INFINITE amount of cash to just order 20% more* or even more (than normal order)*.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@YourQuirkyWays29
I believe there is no "pre-load" per say. Even if there is a "pre-load", the volume is insignificant. For the sake of getting SLIGHTLY cheaper price, US buyers order 20% more and gamble delivery cross into 2025? No-lah. ... Just order like normal base on US demand and their cash flow from Msia is the safest route. So I'm saying Chinese market share in US is flowing to Msia.

The 50%(2025) and 100% (2026) is pretty much secured by Biden. Does Trump has the power to blanket a 10% tariff on US imports? I'm not sure. I did some research and there's no definite answer. So lets assume Trump has the power... he proposed 60% in all China import and 10% on all other imports. So net is still 50% tariff on China when comes to gloves. Hence in this case, US buyers will pre-load with Msia orders for this reason to avoid the 10% tariff.
Assuming there's pre-loading from Msia gloves. Is that a problem for us long term investors? There could be a spike for Msia order in Dec & Jan then drop in Feb and March ... so what? It evens out.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

And I can't believe a Topglove executive can make such dumb statement in the press. 🙄

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/09/stronger-earnings-on-the-horizon-for-top-glove

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

welp its good to lower expectations first, and let's see how it goes.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

another bad day for KLCI, almost dropping below 1600 again.

Posted by dompeilee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Finally below my original cost price again...let's hope it doesn't tumble back to last year's $2.40 again. But maybe there's a better than 50-50 chance of re-testing $3.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I see DXY (Dollar index) hovering near 109. USD is strong. Good case for Kossan and Harta

Posted by HKHedgeFund > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

indutries 4.0, fully automation? virus? another 10 years

Posted by findfreedom > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

你不讲广东话了？LOL

Posted by carimakan > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

collect as much as u can.. sure Win!

Posted by TaiMeiLi > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Glovemakers may see volume sales normalise in the first half of the year due to the potential frontloading of orders from US customers, says RHB Research.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/10/glovemakers-to-gain-from-trade-diversion-in-us

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

From the article:
The research house, which downgraded the rubber product sector to “neutral”, pointed out that Malaysia’s glove export volumes had declined 11% month-on-month (m-o-m) in November 2024.

In comparison, China’s glove export volumes grew 3% m-o-m.

“The US October 2024 order volumes surpassed the pre-pandemic two-year average monthly orders by 50%,” it said.

So why October? Because it takes 1 to 1.5 months travel from port to port. This does not include manufacturing time. So frontloading was in Oct which makes Nov & Dec a no-order-zone for China's gloves. Since frontloading was in Oct, less order comes in Nov due to "oversupply" for the month of Oct. I still believe in Dec there's significant order with Nov only drop by 11% m-o-m.

Just analyzing the data, we should see significant order for Q1-25. This frontloading factor does not apply in Q1-25.

Posted by Zrenxy > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Harta will reach rm4 soon

Posted by ket4212 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I think wait next qr reach 4

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

fingers crossed that the december volume is per your prediction @Chipee

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@YourQuirkyWays29 🤞🤞🤞💪

Posted by mf > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Name
Last
High
Low
Chg.
Chg. %
Time
US 30
41,822.2 42,012.2 41,781.8 -105.1 -0.25%
22:54:45
US 500
5,797.5 5,827.5 5,791.4 -29.0 -0.50%
22:54:41
US Tech 100
20,718.4 20,870.2 20,696.0 -127.7 -0.61%
22:30:09

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Slowdown in US interest rate cuts is a good thing for gloves. Keeps USD high.
Due to report of improving employment in US means US economy is resilient, market expect lesser rate cut.
Expectation of Trumps tariff will cause inflation in US = rate high = USD high.
All are good news for Msia gloves.

Posted by Zrenxy > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Ya gloves should be flying in this year. Harta target price rm4.30

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Finally someone with a more achievable forecast, I also believe RM4 - RM4.5 is very achievable.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This targets can only be seen after seeing results for Q1 and Q2 2025.
Q4 2024 is basically transitional into US tariff on China. If that result trigger a selloff then a good opportunity to buy.

Posted by mf > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

FBM KLCI

FBM KLCI

1,565.49

-10.97

0.69%

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

blood bath across share markets continues

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Good opportunity to buy the dip. Wait for falling knife to land.

Posted by findfreedom > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Is a knee jerk reaction for glove counter. I bet market will rebound tomorrow.

Posted by Zrenxy > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Feb quarter is superb, will announce quarterly dividend, that’s Harta commitment to long term shareholders. Target price RM4.30

Posted by Zrenxy > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Pre Covid Target Price RM5.50

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

No tariff on china health care poducts including gloves !

Posted by calvintaneng > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Listen to the very end

Trump2 might impose Tariff on Harta 50%

Only Supermax tax free

https://youtu.be/qnf_lPHiPMA?si=jjob30-BiNo6rEdi

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Natsuko's wish - no tariff on china only and 100% tariff on others!! what a nasty individual.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

My take - compared to China, the need for US to be hostile with ASEAN country like us while sacrificing costing of their healthcare is relatively low. I also don't see a world where supermax (a company once banned for ESG) can be the sole supplier to the whole US market. Even if I give best case of 100% utility for supermax's US factory, there's still enough demand for everyone else to share the pie. Chill, keep calm, hold.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Also, trump imposing crazy tariff is not as easy as he like to declare. It still has to go through the gov voting and debate, unless he declares emergency, of course.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1460719

Posted by Chipee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Share some post from Kossan:

tingpangeng

Let take Mr. Trump logic imposing 50% tariff on gloves manufactured outside of the USA in order to force glove manufacturers to set up plant in the USA. USA produces zero gloves with Supermax limited production capacity in the USA it still needs to import from China and Malaysia. This higher tariffs will be passed on to consumers and Americans will feel the pinch eventually. For plant to set up in the USA required time and I would reckon Mr Trump 4 years limited term is not enough to threaten glove manufacturers to come to USA as the next president will do with his own strategy. Harta , Kossan, Topglove will survive in Mr Trump administration and returns to pre covid times in terms of revenue and profits

Chipee

@tingpangeng
Totally agree with you. There's a reason manufacturing moved away from developed countries, HIGH LABOUR WAGES. The only manufacturing jobs that will flow back to US are HIGH MARGIN products like cars, handphones, and other high end products. LOW MARGIN products like gloves, textiles, etc will stay in emerging markets.

Also gloves are used globally. So if you build factory in US with such high cost, you can only sell them to US. Even with 10% tariff on Msia, it is still beneficial to manufacture in Msia. That will definitely increase inflation hence higher interest rate and higher USD. Good for Msia gloves. Remember, 10% tariff is a blanket tariff on ALL US imports. Moreso when China got hit by 60% tariff, it is still advantage to Msia gloves. We have a huge room to negotiate on the ASP hence counter the reduce orders from US.

And pls don't talk about AI in manufacturing bcoz is AI is neither free or cheap. It costs $30k-40K per chip for nvidia AI. How many chip do you need to run such operation? Or you rent data centres with Nvidia AI chips, how much does it cost? Not cheap. Definitely not cheaper than our labour cost.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

U must know the verbal agreement between president Xi and Trump few days ago , the high tariff is for non essential products from China only , healthcare products is excluded from the latest high tariff ! Worst case harta will drop back to rm 1.40 - 1.80

Posted by Chipee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Nutsucker must be hallucinating hearing conversation between Xi and Trump ... Hahaha...
Not long he will end up in Tanjung Rambutan. 🤣

Posted by Moon1668 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Harta drop back to 1.40? Wah, that's dangerous, right? Maybe those who are frightened should sell, now!

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

No tariff on china healthcare products !

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Sorry to all , 10% only tariff on china product not 50% !

Posted by Chipee > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Nutsucker need to brush up his comprehension in English.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/21/economy/tariffs-china-trump-february-first/index.html

"In an Oval Office press conference that echoed similar off-the-cuff remarks on Monday, Trump said that he is considering a 10% across-the-board tariff on all Chinese goods starting as early as February 1. On Monday, Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada but deflected on China, noting that former President Joe Biden left in place extensive tariffs that Trump imposed during his first administration."

Meaning 10% on other products that are not already have tariff on them. Products like EV (100%) and gloves (50%) that already has tariff from Biden's admin will stay. You think Trumps gonna reduce tariff on Elon and Supermax that supports his vision? Otak mana otak? ....😂