@cksam, if u think DJI going to plunge soon, then go and short DJI futures. no need to come to this forum and post yr long story here. not relevant to ssteel and other steel stocks at all !!
Last month every1 keep bad mouth about court case; now every1 keep bad mouth about steel export; what next that can hampers the share price? Try to brainstorm new ideas.
Maybe everyone here is resilient - Just sitting this out by living life fully (busy with other things). Come back during end of May and vio-la it’s RM 2.80 (I hope). =]
My understanding of the impact of donald trump tariff:-
1) Short Term, US Steel factory production capacity is insufficient to meet its steel demand. Once the tariff impose, the retail steel price in US will be increase, the the steel factory profit margin will increase. At the same time, the import of steel will be remain same or reduce a bit, because the demand is there. With the 25% tariff, Donand Trump government income will increase as well.
2) Short-term steel price will reduce, because all business stop placing their order, want to see how low can the steel price go. Once they realised their stock level reducing and the demand is still same as usual, they will place order again, and price will back to its original level.
2) Midle term, once the steel factory have stable profit, they will start expand their production, they will invest in new blast furnace, hire more worker, so will improve the job market. and the import will reduce substantially.
China rebar price has gone down from peak in December to around RMB 3880 / MT now, or RM 2390 / MT. After tax and shipping, it’s probably RM 2700-2800 / MT.
But admittedly there’re some uncertainties now, Trump’s tariff and its implication. It’s a dynamic and complex web of intercorrelations. I’m still holding.
just admint, the glory days of steel stock is no more after trump impose tax...at least the news had driven them dropping like no tmr, it might take another few quarter to shine..but bear is coming...hard to wait
hebeds, since when steel stock had its glory days. From time to time in the past 2 years, people keep downplaying the future of steel companie and doubt their potentials.
nicky, buy rate high doesn't mean anything as it can indicate distribution as well. This stock is in consolidation mode for too long. We shall see after this lengthy consolidation, the price is going to move north breaking the rm2.40 or falling down further
Glory day start when annjoo rise from 1.xx till now 3.xx, it's gonna stop right here, annjoo can't rise it's pe, the other steel company don't even have the chance
hebeds, can you distinguish between glory and resurrection? From 1 to 3 something for annjoo, it is merely due to turaround from previous loss making industry. It has not even achieved its max potential. And who said that annjoo is the leader in steel industry? That is only the propaganda spread by some vested interest parties to make sure annjoo share price is higher above the rest
Kimao, why do we need to load extra profit? Do they sell at cost price in China? Why would the shipping fee a percentage of the steel price? They’re not related.
Based on my finding, the average Rebar price in USD is around USD870 per tonnes, while China rebar price is only RMB3800 (or USD600). After donald trump impose the 25% tariff, it will become USD750. Then add on the transportation, warehouse, admin, insurance....etc, around USD100 per tonne, then China steel price in US market will become USD850. Which is more or less same as the local steel price in US. That why now China steel price is around RMB3700-3800 level.
However, we can see that US Steel Mill start to raise their price, if US steel can raise their price to above USD900-920, that mean there is a room for China Steel Price to move up to RMB4000-4100.
China nor US steel have nothing to do with Malaysia steel we are different entity if u wanna be rich keep buying few months later u see the price u will know how powerful is steel
Share price weakness of steel stocks, partly due to an overreaction to the US import tariff on Chinese products, should see a re-rating during a possibly strong first-quarter 2018 results season in May, said UOB Kay Hian.
In a sector update report yesterday, the research house opined that steel companies may report another strong set of earnings for the first quarter, with gross profit per tonne potentially expanding to RM733 per tonne.
We also reiterate our view that the tariff imposed on imported steel and aluminium by the US should not have a significant impact on local steel players, given that excess supply from US imports should easily be absorbed given the aggressive capacity cuts by China.
In addition, logistically, it would be economically inefficient for US steel suppliers such as Canada, Brazil and Mexico to divert excess supply to Asia
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tecpower
3,536 posts
Posted by tecpower > 2018-03-06 00:42 | Report Abuse
Malaysia's trade exports grow 17.9% to RM82b
"The main contributors to the increase were exports of electrical and electronic (E&E) products which surged by 27.1%, followed by chemicals and chemical products (23.4%), iron and steel products (60.9%), optical and scientific equipment (18%), manufactures of metal (14.8%) as well as transport equipment (32%)."
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/03/05/malaysia-trade-exports-grow-17pt9pct-to-rm82m/#L5isskXlpjLvwyKJ.99
iron and steel products (60.9%)