Key takeaways of Muhibbah's 2020 reporting can be summarized as continued financial deterioration and accounting manipulation.
My analysis on the company's liquidity and going concern has not changed, and the latest financial report only further confirm its financial deteriorations: greater financial loss, RM123 million, diminished a quarter of its retained earnings; remained highly indebted with debts due in 12 months; total debt remains about the same as total debt in last year and the company only managed to refinance 12% of last year short term debt to long term debt, indicating extremely weak financial strength in repaying debt; and most importantly its declining order book is now lower than its already low 2020 revenue, decreased by 23% to 2019's.
In an attempt to present better looking financial reporting, the management significantly misrepresented until 4Q 2020 the company financial position in the past by omitting RM115 million PPE revaluation.
In its annual report, the company accounting policy stated that "The Group and the Company adopted the policy to revalue their freehold land and leasehold land every 5 years < or > at shorter intervals whenever the fair values of the freehold land and leasehold land are expected to differ materially from their carrying values". In 2020, a year when coronavirus pandemic affected almost every economics in the world, including property market, Muhibbah's assets somehow magically surged by RM115 million.
There are only three reasons to why such revaluation only disclosed in 2020 but not earlier. Firstly, the company revalued and was aware, but chose not to disclose in the past and to use it as a tool to adjust the book when required. Secondly, the company simply cooked things up. Lastly, the management is incompetent for genuinely omitted it in the past. In any case, it speaks volume about integrities of its management and financial reporting.
Scrutinizing its financial report under such perspective, I also identified another key takeaway for its 2020 performance. In 2020, Muhibbah accounted only 10% of 2019 dividend income from associates, confirming my prediction that SCA will not be saviour to Muhibbah in resolving its financial hardships and raising doubt about recoverability of hundreds million of profit from SCA, accounted in long term receivables.
Wise investor would have realised by now that half of Muhibbah cash is contributed by Favelle Favco, half of declining order book of Muhibbah is contributed by FF, almost all of Muhibbah's debt is not related to FF, and FF is the main profit making operation in Muhibbah. If one think that Muhibbah management team is the best in the world, a belief that I strongly doubt, then one needs to ask why invest in Muhibbah but not FF itself, especially when Muhibbah, which declared no dividend in 2020, will this time use all of FF dividend for itself than route it to its own shareholders.
While GDP of every countries that Muhibbah operates has shrunk in 2020, Muhibbah's fixed assets surged 10% in the same year. Such accounting treatment is definitely warrant scrutinization, or perhaps Muhibbah is really as amazing as "is very good stock, indeed".
Next QR will be green. Im sure buy now will earn some % by next QR. Why? Cause the revenue can reach 300mil this QR. It means operation already making profit. So long no write down or impairment. Next qr sure green. Buy now wait for 2 months only cause next qr out by May month.
These shares been keeping by epf without any selling so far..the price already at very low..presently reflecting a good value. Just keep it will rise once post covid.
I dont need to be either type to articulate facts, and while stereotyping seems effortless, it undermines one's ability to objectively seeking truth.
Since mid of 2020, both EPF and Lembaga Tabung Haji have ceased to be significant investor of Muhibbah, and ever since then it has not announced any of their subsequent purchase of its share, indicating their shareholdings are lower but not higher than those of prior to that cessation, a revelation that whether they have gradually reduced their positions to extremely immaterial level will come to light end of this month.
*Ceased to be significant shareholder = the company is no longer obliged to report investor's buy or sell transactions because that investor holds immaterial level of position. It does not imply that such investor remains holding the shares. Just as Muhibbah does not report your transactions, it also stop to report those of EPF and LTH.
Managing Luxembourg funds rated 6 out of 7 in risk, FIL's fund managers are expected to include miracle elements in their portfolios. However, justifying such share acquisition as indication of "good buy for long term", "safe", and "sure things" is rather naive.
Posting RM123 million loss in 2020, of which only about 10% is non-recurring cost due to restructuring, indicates on-going construction projects are generally running in negative margin, completing them further only yields similar margins, a notion of construction profit recognition. Without new, positive margin project, the company is expected to further announce huge red for construction segment that has balance of RM500 million worth of negatively margined orders.
The company will make profit only if its crane and airport contribute significant profits to offset loss making construction. Given the slower than expected rollout and bottlenecked supply of covid-19 vaccines, it is unlikely to see airport industry to triumph in 2021.
But the most crucial question of all is that with all these circumstances, how Muhibbah repay a billion ringgit debts due in 12 months?
Dont worry, buy now and wait for next qr to see first profit after do many loss qr. next qr sure green after flushing out all write down this year. Still got cash 600mil. No worries.
2x5, 5x2, sama sajalah semua. Rakyat is the mangsa, penuhkan poket sendiri saja. BN pandai tutup lubang saja, tapi itu lubang tetap jadi lubang besar satu hari nanti.
Cambodia's Covid-19 death toll rises to 120 with six new fatalities; people advised 'vaccine and good hygiene' the only way to overcome pandemic
(Monday, 10 May 2021 / 12:37 PM MYT)
PHNOM PENH, May 9 (Xinhua): Cambodia's death toll from Covid19 has surged to 120 on Sunday night (May 9) after six new fatalities were reported in the last 24 hours, the Ministry of Health said in a statement.
The South-East Asian nation also logged 520 new cases, pushing the national case tally to 19,237, the statement said, adding that the new infections included 515 local cases and five imported cases.
Meanwhile, the kingdom saw 301 patients recovered, taking the total number of recoveries to 7,641.
Health Ministry's secretary of state and spokeswoman Or Vandine called on the people to continue complying with health safety measures and urged them to receive COVID-19 vaccines when their turns come.
"New normal is going to be our way for living with the Covid-19 for a long time, so protecting yourselves from infecting with the Covid-19 is the top priority," she said.
"Vaccine and good hygiene are the best choice."
Cambodia has been enduring the third wave of Covid-19 community transmission since Feb. 20.
In a bid to flatten the infection curve, the country has closed down all schools, sports facilities, museums, cinemas, and entertainment venues nationwide and has imposed lockdowns in some areas which are deemed to have a high risk of infections.
The country launched an anti-Covid-19 inoculation drive on Feb 10. To date, more than 1.7 million out of the kingdom's 16-million population have been vaccinated against the virus, the Ministry of Health said. - Xinhua
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
firehawk
4,782 posts
Posted by firehawk > 2021-03-26 16:42 | Report Abuse
is very good stock, indeed!