Posted by certifiedanalyst11 > 2022-01-21 08:54 | Report Abuse

i told you so. 1 year ago.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/01/12/muhibbahs-rights-issue-exercise-raises-concerns
"we opined that such rights exercise could potentially allude to the inability to collect receivables, which could lead to cash constraints and impairments and the inability to raise additional debt to bridge funding needs,” Kenanga Research said."

How could a right issue resolves a 1 billion debt due in 12 months when its market cap is valued at only 380 million? Unless it raise 3 times of its market cap, then its own management, mac’s family and executives, whose own about 25% of total shareholding needs to come out with 280 million from their personal pockets to avoid their shares’ dilution.

Of course 3 times is an extreme measure assuming no other source of fund. Anyway, when everyone in the management knows the company is going under, convincing them to go deeper with extra personal capital is simply impossible.

Anyone familiar with right issue or any other issue including bond knows that most, if not all, of issues are sold to big investors before they are offered to the public, perhaps left less than 10% of raised capital. In this particular case that Muhibbah’s substantial investors, excluding management, such as KWSP and Tabung Haji have disposed their shareholding since May 2020, so it is unlikely to expect any other big investor to fill the gap, even if the management team members are willing to dilute their own shares by not pouring personal capital into a sinking ship.


SCA like any other airports in the World is suffering from pandemic and will face intense competition from new Chinese-owned Cambodian Airports, so it is unlikely for SCA to pay any dividend to shareholders in coming years.
Moreover, Muhibbah being minority shareholder, even with 30%, in SCA is unable to exert influence on SCA’s dividend policy. It is obvious when it needs to pay 40-50 million interest annually for years because of its heavy debt, but leaving the so called 400 million with SCA for decades for 0 interest. That raised the questions of management’s competency in converting paper profit into cash and plausibility of its revenue recognition, perhaps yet another accounting scandal to be unveiled.

Posted by uniteen > 2022-01-24 10:16 | Report Abuse

certifiedanalyst11, what about muhibah's long term assets? would they be able to sell off their long term assets in order to help resolve it's debt problem?

Posted by certifiedanalyst11 > 2022-01-25 07:38 | Report Abuse

I believe no one should buy the right options. This is a desperate measure of saving the company from going under. 50 cent a share is not 31% discount from market value as advertised, but it is the true value after detailed scrutinization by RHB investment bank. In their latest financial report, asset per share is RM2.30, but why selling only 50 cent a share? There could be only one reason if the management is equipped with reasonable mind, that is no banks willing to finance the 1 billion ringgit debt due in 12 months anymore. Why? because most of the accounting profits recognized as account receivables are questionable, which is unable to translate into real cash flow to settle the debts.

On paper, assets are largely greater than liabilities, but in actual assessment, it's only 20% of reported. This implies that 80% are overstated? that the debts are derived from loss making deals. Remember, only realisable receivable is true profit. Untranslatable one is all paper profit and subject to impairment, which is in the real term - business loss.

So now, the management asks the shareholders to chip in more than half of their investment in the company if not your share value will further drop to 30 cent (from 60 cent). The logic is that they are issuing more than half of current outstanding shares. without paying for their bad decision in business - loss making deals that now making 1 billion debt-, your shares will dilute by more than half. Dilution simply means loss of value, same as your shares drop to 30 cent from current 60 cent.
Dont you agree this is desperate or threatening?
The sharp drop when this is announced is not panic sale bur rather adjustment to reality given above analysis. So the further 50% drop in value if you dont buy the option is not yet accounted for.

So some might ask how about the company prospect?
1) construction is hopeless. this is the sector that got the company into today's misery. All the loss making deals are now surfaced when the management has no more new project's invoices to refinance the debts.

2) marine is a failure. during pandemic, freight charges are at all time high, and shipping companies are ordering more vessel than ever. Yet, the company has not announced any new order for ship building.

3) cambodian airport is done. because the largest passengers to cambodia is chinese, when China government adopts zero covid policy, it is unlikely to see any passenger into cambodia at least 1 year after pandemic is over. Chinese government will not open borders that soon, so even one year window is very optimistic, in which case is 2024, assuming omicron is the last variant, i highly doubt so.

4) crane sector is the only reason why the management is gamble with 25million for issuing this options. Imagine if the company is bankrupt, and debt collectors taking over all Muhibbah's assets, including 60% of favelle favco's shares. Then, the management will loss control of both companies. That's the only reason why the management is trying to save the company by self funding 25m to pay the debts stemming from loss making projects.

As for you, what do you gain by preserving your shareholding proportion of a sinking ship?

Posted by limkokthye > 2022-01-27 16:22 | Report Abuse

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2022/01/27/airasia-resumes-flight-to-phnom-penh-offers-exciting-deals/

Posted by limkokthye > 2022-01-27 16:22 | Report Abuse

airasia fly to cambodia

Posted by uniteen > 2022-01-31 09:35 | Report Abuse

can't believe that muhibah is trading lower than airasia which is a PN17 status company.

Posted by hcthey > 2022-02-03 12:36 | Report Abuse

this is a lousy counter, I foresee that after the rights issue, this counter will drop below 50 cts.
I belief the company has a lot of bed debts or impairment losses, after contra off with this impairment losses, its NTA may drop below 1.00 and no more RM2.30. Money received from rights issue may be utilized for debts repayment. This counter has no hope at all, I am not confident in it and do not wish to preserve this counter anymore, I force myself to dispose of all my shares at big losses last week and today. my cost per share is about RM1.10. With the proceeds received, i look for better profitable counter with annual dividends. This is a sinking ship, if I would escape now, I will die of suffocation in the ship. The above is my personal opinion, you don't follow me if you are confident in this counter. Happy Chinese New Year and happy trading as well to all my friends who are still in the market.

Posted by ming > 2022-02-11 11:31 | Report Abuse

no money pay debt~ but still sapu FAVCO share at high price

Posted by investortrader88 > 2022-02-15 14:46 | Report Abuse

Top up some tickets RM0.61.good luck guys.

Posted by DINGYEH > 2022-03-03 16:52 | Report Abuse

jibye stock

Posted by jasonsay99 > 2022-03-09 16:22 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7ocjWaerTM&t=1s

Posted by hcthey > 2022-03-16 12:43 | Report Abuse

I belief that during the Ex date on 28 March for this counter, it will fall below the rights issues price at 50 cts. To avoid double losses, I better clear my shares and run away for safety.

Posted by hcthey > 2022-03-16 16:40 | Report Abuse

Ah Meng, you better sell your shares now, this is not a good company, good management will never ask money from shareholders by calling for rights issues. after the ex date, the market price will drop below 50 cts. I don,t see any good prospect for this counter, buyers have disappeared from the market, Ah Meng, you better sell it and shift over to other counters of which they made profit plus distribution of divividend, you consider my advice, happy trading to you,

Posted by Chung > 2022-03-19 21:55 | Report Abuse

hcthey I bet you a cup of coffee that after Ex-date Muhibah will stand above 50 cents or even higher than 60 cents. Can you image what will happen if Muhibah trade below 50 cents after ex-date ? This mean the current Muhibah share holder wont apply for right issue share end up the major share holder will under write all unsubsribe share. Indirectly this share will be push up by someone until completed right issue process.

Posted by AlfI3 > 2022-03-25 06:30 | Report Abuse

Hi Chung, not necessarily got anybody to push up d mother shares to ensure over subscription, as I observed many RI were poorly under- subscribed lately.

It is very common nowadays, as d timing for d cash call excercise is not good.....

Posted by Chung > 2022-03-25 16:19 | Report Abuse

Aifi3 i Totally agreed with you....if drop below 50 cents lagi bagus can buy at cheap price. For sure Muhibbah-OR worth 0 cents when list on 30 March.

Posted by wakarimas > 2022-03-27 11:17 | Report Abuse

well, typical right issue pattern is big drop when announce right issue, but rebound kuat after right issue done. Mark my word ,lets see the price at the end of april.

Posted by soon9913 > 2022-03-29 00:19 | Report Abuse

airport biz is recovering

Posted by hcthey > 2022-04-01 11:05 | Report Abuse

I sold all my shares plus OR at moderate losses, with the proceeds I shifted over to Ruberex counter, I recover part of my losses in Muhibah. Eventually my losses drops to the minimal, I don't feel so sore in my heart. My friend Ah Meng did the same thing. Currently I am still holding small number of Ruberex shares, hopefully it will go up further. Today the highest price done is 62.5 cts.

Posted by Chillo > 2022-04-01 16:49 | Report Abuse

Muhibbah has been actively buying their darling Favco shares in open market since end 21, increasing their stake from 58 to 63% now, 5% of favco mart cap around 30mil. Spending quite a bit there expecting crane usage recovery . Instead, they do rights issue to pay off interest bearing debts, is a bit of a mystery to me.

Posted by Hew Kiong Peng George > 2022-04-02 07:03 | Report Abuse

lets goreng -or for final 2 days

Posted by ming > 2022-04-03 15:35 | Report Abuse

First announce right issue.. everyone worry about their financial..

But since that, company had spent >20m to buy Favco shares from open market..

So.. their cash flow got problem?

With the current share price, do u think retailer will subscribe the rights issue?

If no, what is the purpose they proceed this?

Posted by ampabella > 2022-04-04 15:03 | Report Abuse

what happen, muhibbah once a great share now become pennnnnny stock, will the director
make Muhibbah great again or not

Posted by Heungheungloveyou > 2022-04-04 19:27 | Report Abuse

Someone just wanna to grab more shares at lower price, this is the objective for the right issue

Posted by awesome20 > 2022-04-05 19:33 | Report Abuse

good company good fa
accumulate for more than 1 year
target at least 30% roi from this

Posted by thesteward > 2022-04-06 21:42 | Report Abuse

I agree with you

Posted by wakarimas > 2022-04-11 18:48 | Report Abuse

well, let the show begins.

Posted by Heungheungloveyou > 2022-04-15 21:38 | Report Abuse

Just a week ago cash called to pay down debt, now propose share buy back! Money from? What is the logic there? Obviously someone pressed down share price for cheap tickets.. dirty jobs

Posted by soon9913 > 2022-04-18 21:16 | Report Abuse

it will up soon...

Posted by uptrending > 2022-04-22 10:33 | Report Abuse

Market is more intelligent than many "analysts"

Posted by certifiedanalyst11 > 2022-04-25 17:44 | Report Abuse

yeah so smart that even before getting the new shares, stock price has dropped on par with right issue price, earning zero margin or loss. expect further drop when stock supply increased by 50% on tomorrow. Unfortunately those who exercised thinking to make a quick buck will loss money for their own greed.

why sudden drop? because the company was repurchasing the stocks to keep the price higher than 50 cent during the exercise period, hence the notice for recent share repurchase.

now that people have transferred their hard earned money to the sinking ship, the management has stopped repurchasing to keep the share above 50 cent.

i bet no one can win a lawsuit for own ignorance. so stay poor uptrending, you earned it.

Posted by Peace99 > 2022-04-26 09:56 | Report Abuse

New to Muhibbah, but subscribed to RI. Just want to point out that as announced in Bursa the directors forked out many millions to subscribe the RI. I will just hold.

Posted by Hew Kiong Peng George > 2022-05-03 06:03 | Report Abuse

MUHIBAH is a hidden gem for its 3 airport recovery biz in Cambodia...

Posted by firehawk > 2022-05-05 22:15 | Report Abuse

Favelle Favco declared 85.0sen div?

Muhibbah holds 140,748,343 FF shares, div = 119.636m, more than 16sen /Muhibbah share?

Posted by Davidl > 2022-05-05 22:44 | Report Abuse

Price gap up tmr morning!

Posted by yong1985cm > 2022-05-06 08:37 | Report Abuse

yes but the dividend that going to receive by muhibaah will not appear as 'accounting profit' , it will jz 'cash inflow' to muhibah.

Posted by uptrending > 2022-05-06 09:48 | Report Abuse

Bought 0.50..
But 0.30 never came

The Board is smarter.. Hmmm..

Posted by speakup > 2022-05-06 09:56 | Report Abuse

bought 52

Posted by speakup > 2022-05-06 10:00 | Report Abuse

smart money sell favco, buy muhibbah.

Posted by speakup > 2022-05-06 10:04 | Report Abuse

sell 1 favco, can buy 5 muhibbah

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-05-06 11:45 | Report Abuse

Seems like Muhibbah is the main dish

Posted by soon9913 > 2022-05-06 12:42 | Report Abuse

sell on news.

Posted by nicky > 2022-05-06 13:54 | Report Abuse

some say good some say rubbish ... so which is which ??

Posted by gemfinder > 2022-05-06 13:57 | Report Abuse

Rubish lo. In d end favco oso got problem

Posted by nizam > 2022-05-06 14:43 | Report Abuse

we must muhibah must have muhibah

Posted by nizam > 2022-05-06 14:43 | Report Abuse

good performance

Posted by matt88 > 2022-05-06 15:17 | Report Abuse

the dividend receive and the recent rights issue will be used for working capital and to reduce the huge borrowings. If you look at their balance sheet you will get a better idea. They may declare a token amount just to keep everyone happy.

Posted by cicakman > 2022-05-06 15:29 | Report Abuse

Unless Muhibah passed back some of the dividen it is ok.
If no,it is just Muhibah invesment is fruiting.
Favco give RM 196 millions as dividen to Muhibah but Favco themselve make how much to share the profit?
Long term could be ok.

Posted by cicakman > 2022-05-06 15:37 | Report Abuse

Sorry RM 119 millions.

Posted by cicakman > 2022-05-06 15:44 | Report Abuse

Beside Favco give dividen,it add it own share value and to Muhibah too.
Think wisely.