According to CIMB Research analysts Sharizan Rosely and Kamarul Anwar, the impact on earnings excluding the 30% share of SPLASH’s net profit and the potential impairment is significant but this is likely to be mitigated by a potential special dividend.
Based on the offer, Pengurusan Air Selangor Sdn Bhd (Air Selangor) will make an upfront payment of RM1.9 billion upon the signing of the definitive agreement with the remaining RM650 million being paid in instalments over a period of nine years.
KPS, which owns 30% of SPLASH, is expected to receive an upfront cash payment of RM570 million or about RM1.06 per share with the remaining RM195 million to be paid in instalments over a period of nine years. This would increase the cash and bank balances for KPS to RM651.6 million, an increase of 7.99 times from RM81.6 million as at March 31 this year.
In the event that 50% of the upfront sale proceeds received from the disposal of SPLASH is paid as a bumper special dividend, shareholders could see a dividend per share of 53 sen which works out to a whopping yield of about 29.6% based on KPS’ closing price of RM1.79 yesterday.
A fund manager with a local asset management agreed with CIMB Research that a bumper dividend is likely to be given out to shareholders given the strong cash balance following the disposal of SPLASH.
“If you look at the announcement made by KPS, they have also indicated that the sale of SPLASH could help the group to focus on their core businesses,” he said, pointing out that channel checks suggested that the management might allocate 50% of the cash proceeds as a one-time special dividend for shareholders, with the remaining being utilised for its business expansion.
He, however, cautioned that the group’s borrowings had increased by the end of March with a net gearing at about 0.39 times compared with about 0.20 times as at Dec 31, 2017.
CIMB Research has also done a sensitivity analysis on a hypothetical special dividend payout, which shows that the dividend potentially yielding about 3% to 17% for KPS’ shareholders if about 5% to 30% of the RM570 million upfront sale proceeds is paid as special dividends.
Nonetheless, the market appeared to have reacted negatively to the potential sale of SPLASH as KPS’ share price fell by 5.79% or 11 sen to RM1.79 with about 15.5 million shares traded.
An analyst who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said that the decline is likely driven by traders who have bought into KPS prior to the 14th general election. KPS’ last price on May 8 — a day before polling day — was RM1.26 and it has been on an uptrend since.
“If you look at the last one year, trading volume probably peaked at about six million but the volume was 15.5 million today, which is more than eight times its 30-day average volume of less than two million. It just shows that there is still a lot of interest in the stock as market participants are anticipating a potential bumper dividend,” he said.
Please don't simply said something without any fact. I have no idea good or bad after the splash deal is done. It is depends the management decision wheather want to declare the special dividend. Unless you are the CEO. I only know the splash deal would give a significant impact on share price. Good chance to make money and worth to spend some time to monitor this counter. Please give me your research detail and don't simply talk crab because try to bring out the negative emotion. Give me a chance to respect you.
Maybe got nothing from Splash, but got a 1 billion Contract for pipe replacement in 2019 out of the budgeted 7 billion in 10 years (4Q18 report indicate 7 Trials replacement in Selangor in 2018, completed)
in any mkt it is perfectly fine to hv opposing views, there is always a bull &a bear , if it drops the bear will cheer and laugh at the bull and vice versa...only time will tell who is right or wrong....
PETALING JAYA: The deal by the Selangor government to buy Syarikat Pengeluar Air Sungai Selangor Sdn Bhd (Splash) would lead to the replacement of old water pipes in the state, analysts said.
The political deadlock between the Federal and state governments over water assets has stood in the way of the water pipe replacement programme in Selangor.
CIMB Research said if the Splash deal is successful, it would lead to dealing with non-revenue water (NRW) losses and new water treatment plant capacities, and a full-cost recovery model possibly through a scheduled water tariff increase.
“This will address the cash-flow deficit and unpaid receivables along the entire water treatment and distribution supply chain,” it said in its July report.
Meanwhile, RHB Research reckoned that the new Government wants to emphasise pipe replacement in Selangor.
“This is due to the severity of the various water crises that have impacted the state in recent times – it reported 49.4% of the water disruption cases nationwide,” it said in a report last month.
It is understood that the RM1bil pipe replacement programme in Selangor is part of the RM10bil nationwide pipe replacement programme.
Repair work has not been carried out as new contracts were frozen because of the stalemate between the Selangor government and Splash.
The nagging issue that is holding back the takeover of Splash is its valuation.
Following years of delay, substantial work can finally begin following the successful consolidation of all four of the state’s water concessionaires into a single entity under Air Selangor.
Nonetheless, CIMB said that the sustainable recovery in Selangor’s structural water issues could only be realised if the Splash deal is wrapped up for good.
It said that the last water tariff hike was in 2006, which lifted household water rates by 13%-18% and commercial rates by 15%-19%.
Usage of the first 20 cubic metres of water remains free.
Splash shareholders comprise Gamuda Bhd, which owns a 40% stake, while Sweet Water SPV Sdn Bhd and Viable Chip Sdn Bhd with 30% each.
Sweet Water is the private vehicle of businessman Tan Sri Wan Azmi Wan Hamzah.
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Posted by fzank > 2019-03-14 16:29 | Report Abuse
♫ By the Rivers of Call-Wind long ...
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when Kay-pea-S is moving ...