i dont think so .. as u can see previous klci declined when all big boy thought there will have election , they selling n take 2 - 3 week to recover . from today only left 2 week for cny . after that dissolved parliment . then election . so no more run .anyone have any idea ?
Is ok KC when politician said that it will be slum for few week that a good news.Since,politician never benefit his citizen haha.Shrimp behind the rock...mmm
sapu kuat kuat knm...co no doubt worst is over....if the worst country in Euro zone, Greece composite index can up 150% in few months..what do u think about Euro zone economy? Still in bad shape? Always remeber market move 6-9 mths ahead of economy. Wait till u c economy stats then KNM price may oledi hit the moon.
kenny, I agreed but not sure about this week ??? Based on last few trading days volume increases n so as price , more likely consolidation !!! I think , loh
First view on 3Q earning EPS=11.56, let say this is the final earning then considering PEx10, then suppose possible appropriate share price is RM1.156, fundamentally.
razmry, good on you. At least you have a basis when you say knm looks promising, fundamentally However I would suggest you go a few steps further; look at this "earnings" if it is real. See if this earnings is translated to cash flows, and improvement of its balance sheet etc. Or is this earnings is just what they think they are making and hidden in the account receivables, inventories. Receivables are what you think people owe you. They could be disputable items, very common in construction, bad debts etc. Some more earnings if its a form of "tax credits", is it real earnings which you receive cash?
Thanks, Kcchongnz, agree with you... more things to consider.. just for as a first basis.. Looking into NTA also +ve... but dispute item need to dig further for unrecorded liabilities or debt...
Based on your point of view of 3Q EPS = 11.56, based on my understanding, KNM had undertake an RI (2:1) at Nov which I believe the computation shall be as follow:
Annual EPS : 11.56/3 x 4 = 15.41 Impact of RI (full subscription) : EPS x 2/3 = 10.27
However the risk of the company is also quite high due to high gearing
Gearing : 0.5837 (I won't suggest to use PE 10x) maybe 8x even it's Main Market.
Besides, due to the current economy the risk of high provision can be high as pointed out by Bro kcchongnz.
However, I still believe there's some space of rebound for this counter as current price is a bit too low + IPO success rate of Borsig is quite high.
Thanks legend623 you have make a point here... I put in my radar.. quite a period of time not monitoring and do deep analysis. This whole week I take leave, just to see possibility to make a fresh collection.. With a hope and pray to have a fair ruler soon.
Draghi Says ‘Darkest Clouds’ Over Europe Have Subsided By Stefan Riecher - Jan 23, 2013 12:05 AM PT Facebook Share LinkedIn Google +1 14 COMMENTS Print QUEUE Q European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested the worst of the sovereign debt crisis may be over, saying the “darkest clouds’ over the euro area have lifted due to decisive policy steps last year. 2:32 Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Those who predicted a split in the euro zone at the 2012 World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, have been proven wrong as policy makers managed to protect the union in the past year. Bloomberg's Baden Campbell reports. (Source: Bloomberg) 4:31 Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, talks about Europe's sovereign-debt crisis and the U.S. economy. Rogoff speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance" on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg) “We can begin 2013 on a more confident note, precisely because significant progress was made during 2012,” Draghi said in a speech in Frankfurt late yesterday. “The darkest clouds over the euro area subsided. Europe’s leaders recognized that monetary union needs to be complemented by a financial union, a fiscal union, a genuine economic union and eventually a deeper political union.” Draghi’s comments are the latest to indicate the ECB chief is increasingly confident that the three-year debt crisis has been contained and that the 17-nation currency bloc can emerge from recession later this year. He defended the ECB’s so-far untapped bond-purchase plan, which has calmed fears of a euro break-up on financial markets, saying it is fully in line with the central bank’s price-stability mandate and doesn’t threaten its independence. “The ECB remains steadfastly committed to its primary mandate of ensuring price stability,” he said. “All of our measures are designed to achieve this goal. And looking at current and expected inflation rates, there is simply no evidence that could substantiate fears about any deviation from price stability.” The euro was little changed after Draghi spoke. It fell 0.2 percent to $1.3292 at 9 a.m. in Frankfurt today. Economic Recovery While the ECB expects the euro-area economy to shrink 0.3 percent in 2013, Draghi said this month he expects a “gradual recovery” to begin later in the year. Many countries are making solid progress in bringing their public finances under control and making structural reforms to increase competitiveness, he said yesterday. “We need patience,” Draghi said. “I am very well aware that for many people in the countries under adjustment, the personal economic situation can be very difficult. But there is simply no alternative to the path of reform.” Europe is making progress that some commentators had thought impossible only a year ago, he said, citing the Economist magazine’s prediction at the start of 2012 that a United States of Europe was “utterly beyond reach.” Making the ECB a single European bank supervisor this year is a “major organizational challenge” and “probably the most significant integration step since the Maastricht Treaty,” he said. In most areas where more integration is needed, “Europe is moving forward or is already there,” Draghi said. “The ambition is not utterly beyond reach.”
looking at the financial statement from yr 2007 till 3rd q of 2012, obvious reason the drop of share price over 90% mainly due to drop in revenue income both from Asia Pac & Europe/Americas region as well as huge jump in borrowing from 266m till 1.1b due to purchased of Borsig. However, revenue income from Asia Pac region has almost back to pre-crisis level and the revenue income from Europe is improving except yet to recovery from Americas. After the recent right issue, the borrowing is reduced and down to 900m and the revenue income for end of 2012 expect to be back or not far from pre-crisis level of 2.52b. Going forward, expect KNM to be better with recovery of world economy esp Europe zone and the biggest push might come from the listing of Borsig. Listing of Borsig will certainly change the whole financial picture of KNM. The debt level expect to be tremendously improve and foresee re-rating is on the card after the 4th q financial result.
Setting side the book, other good thing I can hope is potential KNM participation with RAPID project which is currently on FEED stage. With KNM competitively priced proposal, success rates of winning tenders could be higher than other process equipment manufacturers (although can translate into lower profit margin and slightly higher risk of cost overruns.) But who cares, as long as the stock price respond positively and meet target returns. Again, during low tide, ships big or small will float lower. The money comes when u guess the tides correctly.
hey hey, all the rumor spreader(gunners) & sifu actor going where? finish the mission to hooked enough ppl to buy in already? thn go get ang pow from chair man already
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
KC Loh
13,701 posts
Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-21 15:55 | Report Abuse
tonylim, looking at below 46 sens :)