Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-09 11:08 | Report Abuse

In my watchlist too...got upside...

but their earning aren’t that strong... it wasn’t worth that price last time when it was RM1.2...

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-09 13:56 | Report Abuse

HUAT ARRR

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-09 13:59 | Report Abuse

once hit new high.....will go even higher (the only rule of the game)

Posted by shpg22 > 2018-08-09 15:10 | Report Abuse

Rule of the game
When the euphoria is on, its time to go !!

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-09 15:45 | Report Abuse

You stand corrected. The right one should be when the euphoria is over, then it's time to go...

Where got people leave when the party just started?

Only one type of people leaves during the party started are those not welcomed to the party.
Nvm, you may come after the party. =D

Posted by DL60 > 2018-08-09 16:20 | Report Abuse

shpg22, appreciate your reminder

Posted by perseushermes > 2018-08-09 17:23 | Report Abuse

This is the analogy

Now everyone getting into Dufu Stadium and ALL DOORS ARE OPENED. Great price going up.

Sooner or Later @ Dufu stadium, some smart Alec will shout “fire” “api” “fire” and only ONE door will open to exit, many will have barbecue potatoes instead of Texas Fried Chicken

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-09 19:09 | Report Abuse

I know that analogy very well...

It's called overpriced stadium...that's why we have PE to identify what is over priced and what is not. If Dufu's PE 10 is called overpriced, then more than 95% counter in BSKL are overpriced. Well, api were to come, then your potato are less burned if compared to any other counter.

Now, u guys must be thinking...Then when is the right time to exit? Hint: Watch Helio Drive sales carefullly.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-09 19:20 | Report Abuse

I means if WD Helio Drive sales maintains for next 12 Quarters, you can expect EPS 8 for next 12 quarters for dufu. That translates to 96sen cash on top of current 86sen NTA totalling RM1.82.

Big boys who entered large position at 4pm yesterday knows how to do simple mathematics. Unfortunately, market believes in superstition and beautiful "chart/signal/analogy".

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-09 19:27 | Report Abuse

Penta's Stadium has been open for so long. And there have been plenty of smart alec trying to get a place in the stadium by screaming "fire", or "api". Not very lucky it seems. =D

That's a PE 26 counter by the way. The last QR earnings the same as DUFU. I always wondered why Dufu's 1 dollar isn't worth Penta's 1 dollar profit.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-09 19:58 | Report Abuse

There is one other major scenario I would also keep an eye out for. You have to look at DUFU's competitors to see if they finally got into the Helio Drive market. When that happens then DUFU's profits could take a drop as they and the other HDD component makers drive down their prices to get the contract bid.

As for wondering why DUFU 1 dollar isn't Penta's 1 dollar profit is due to the industry they are in. Til very recently everybody thought HDD market is going down to SSD until I explained my view points. Then when everybody then compared them to the actual news about the HDD market coming out of the big HDD sellers like Western Digital, Seagate and Toshiba then they all realized that bearing some massive new technology wave on SSD, HDD sales will grow.

I mean for those who don't understand the math that RJ87 is talking about let me explain the big picture.

Studies estimate that 2.5 quintillion bytes of data is being created daily.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/05/21/how-much-data-do-we-create-every-day-the-mind-blowing-stats-everyone-should-read/#3d7ea65060ba

That is 2.5 million GB of data created everyday globally.

If you use the latest 14TB Helio HDD drive to store this data you will need 179 units of the new 14TB helio drives. That is 65335 units of the new 14TB Helio HDD drives just to keep up with current data growth.

Each of these new HDD 14TB drives estimate price will be USD 500-600. Let's estimate down USD500 x 65335 = USD32,667,500.

So that means companies around the world have to spend an estimate 32million dollars a year just to meet demand. To be realistic you should double or triple those numbers because they need to buy more units on average for future growth and to allow for individual unit failures.

So mark up the 65K units of 14TB HDD to 130K units and DUFU is one of the handful of component makers in the world that can fulfill this demand. 64 million USD sales Manufacturing Costs will be about 50% of those sales value and you have a 32million costs lets say DUFU components in total count for 50% of those companies material cost and you have 16million USD in sales they might be making to the manufacturers globally.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-09 20:00 | Report Abuse

And these numbers are low end assumptions. Also there is other component they are selling on top of the Helio Component sales and you can see why big investors see money for the new few quarters.

Posted by PW888 > 2018-08-09 21:03 | Report Abuse

CYF, great analysis again. Would ve sold my shares if not because of your earlier post.

Posted by Oliveoil > 2018-08-09 21:04 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow all in 15k

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-09 23:31 | Report Abuse

CYF, spoil my plan. I hv been queuing 5c below closing to collect. No chance to collect. Now spoon feed People like that; who is gonna sell to me?

Got someone sapuing...
Nvm, bullet Save for Lion Ind tmr...

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-10 07:40 | Report Abuse

RJ87 I am genuinely sorry. Your one of the few people who is able to go do their own further research with the data I've provided. That's a rare thing in my experience.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-10 07:48 | Report Abuse

This superDUFU bull does not seem to need taking a rest.....

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-10 09:13 | Report Abuse

HUAT AR

Posted by perseushermes > 2018-08-10 10:34 | Report Abuse

Dufu stadium barbecue potatoes

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-10 10:46 | Report Abuse

Syukur alhamdulilah, manage to collect 5c below closing. TQ whateverhermes.

Its OK CYF, I’m already more excited for next QR.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-10 10:50 | Report Abuse

This one confirm collect from uneducated retailers and no need fight with sharks as they preparing for TGIF.

Comebacks next week! Good week guys...hv a nice weekend.

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-10 10:56 | Report Abuse

Today take profit..Next week up above rm2.00....

Posted by perseushermes > 2018-08-10 11:52 | Report Abuse

You be lucky if it comes back to 1.50

Posted by slts > 2018-08-10 12:11 | Report Abuse

goreng its over

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-10 12:19 | Report Abuse

I buy back kihkihkih..

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-10 12:26 | Report Abuse

U sell i buy...

Posted by perseushermes > 2018-08-10 13:09 | Report Abuse

Hahahah. I sell. You can buy all ge way down to 1.00

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-10 14:14 | Report Abuse

Sell for me perseushermers..i want more..kihkihkih.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-10 15:02 | Report Abuse

Like he has anything to sell...=p

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-10 15:03 | Report Abuse

If got, I dare u to upload in google drive n post the link here.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-10 15:49 | Report Abuse

CYF, any data on WD Helio Drive sales projection and what type of growth?

If we can isolate DUFU earnings, then we can project DUFU's earning growth and do DCF to determine if it's a good time to sell if the market actually over values it.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-10 15:59 | Report Abuse

Check out WD quarterly and annual reports. They have a section listing how many units of each type of HD they've sold. Helio drives fall in the Enterprise Drive market.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-10 16:01 | Report Abuse

But remember WD isn't DUFU only customer there is also Seagate and you can check their QR too

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-10 16:10 | Report Abuse

Then, what's ur ballpark growth estimates?

Y.O.Y 6.8mil growth to 11.8mil, I wonder what's behind the growth.
Any chance you would know what's the percentage growth from core operation excluding forex gain and investment.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-10 16:10 | Report Abuse

Nvm, I will look for them in QR. Asking question like these don't usually come cheap.

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-10 16:58 | Report Abuse

Tp 2.20 hehe

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-13 01:02 | Report Abuse

u late not late abit oh? I was punting since RM1 for one f*cking year.

Now u just discovered. But nvm, still got upside. Clear revenue visibility for next 5-8 quarters.

PE what....that let market decide...

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-13 10:28 | Report Abuse

First we get "stadium burning guy" and now "don't shy don't shy please sell me lah guy" your all coming out of the woodworks. Almost makes me regret posting my analysis.

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-08-13 10:35 | Report Abuse

10q Chang... U posted a good analysis...

Posted by Darren Khor > 2018-08-13 11:21 | Report Abuse

please. just stop.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-13 11:26 | Report Abuse

When force selling stops, it should continue to go up gua...

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-13 11:26 | Report Abuse

Since Dufu only listed in Bursa in 2007 I doubt decades is the best description to use about your MAGIC MARKET POWERS.

Frankly I do hope you stop pushing because I'm trying to use DUFU as teaching opportunity for value investors in Malaysia. By showing how you can research to understand the value of the company. Where to you do your search for the data etc etc.

If you had given me a legitimate question or research backed point to talk about. I would have listened and replied civilly as I had with Investor 9999. However all I'm reading is a guy trying to LARP as a market shark.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-13 12:58 | Report Abuse

CYF, how to you identify under value counter? I used KLSESCREENER with my selection criteria, and PE8-15 with high improvement of ROE over few quarters.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-13 13:03 | Report Abuse

RJ87 currently I use Equities Tracker and their membership services to look for under valued counter. They have a nice setup which lets you check counters that is at 52 week low that has good fundamentals like if they've paid dividends 10 years straight. However it is a paid service and not cheap.

In the past I look for industries that is in downturn and start my research from there.

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-08-13 13:35 | Report Abuse

Wow.... Interesting to hear that.....

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-13 14:29 | Report Abuse

RJ87, plroo7 here is the link to their website if you want to check out their services. http://klsenew.klsetracker.com.my/

I found their courses to be useful despite my years of experience.

RJ87 to expand on my earlier explanation. Before I used equities tracker tools I usually look into industries especially those that are on a downturn. You see them all the time on newspaper, Steel industry facing downturn, Property market downturn, Oil downturn etc etc etc.

I look at all the companies in the industry and this is where things get a little bit tough to quantify and explain for me. I usually look at those companies linked to the downturn industry.

Lets take oil for instance. Everyone would look at oil companies but I would look deeper into companies that are on industries with one or two degrees of separation from the oil industry. For instance plastics. Since Oil prices are down then plastic prices would go down also. Which means companies that sell plastic manufactured products all things being equal would have sudden jumps in profits since plastic prices would go down due to oil prices going down.

This is what got me into BP plastic. Note the date where I said I owned a lot of BP Plastic is around 2014 - 2016 the same time oil prices started their massive downturn. Plastic manufacturing companies like BP plastic experienced high profits due to their raw material costs going down. This my overall style of investment. I look for the businesses and their interrelations to each other first and then I look for the under valued ones.

pang72 unfortunately I have a habit of being too concise and sometimes I fail to take into account who I am talking to. I never said you were a shark, I said you LARPed at being a shark, meaning your a wannabe.

It's like the Cosplayers who dress up like Navy Seals or WW2 Cosplayers who dress like SS Nazi. They want to pretend their BADASS so they try to dress up like the badasses they see in movies and pop culture. However they are not true Navy Seals or SS Nazi because they have never had to do the hard work that comes with the wearing those uniforms. They just want the respect that comes with wearing the uniform. But don't do the work.

Just like good Market Sharks have done their legitimate research before they manipulate a counter's price. How do I know your a LARPer, because you said "DECADES" a good shark will know DUFU has barely been in the market for 11 years and would never have said such a thing in their attempts to fool people.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-13 15:45 | Report Abuse

Let’s talk about exit price...how do u know if a counter is is Trading more than what’s its worth

Posted by Arjan1809 > 2018-08-13 15:51 | Report Abuse

Chang Yee Fong
Thanks for sharing below link......
here is the link to their website if you want to check out their services. http://klsenew.klsetracker.com.my/

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-13 16:03 | Report Abuse

Good question. Unfortunately I'm away from my pc atm and is posting from my phone so I cannot provide a detail answer. I'll give one later tonight when I get home.

Posted by Chl0216 > 2018-08-13 17:36 | Report Abuse

Hi, im newbie....i notice it drop from highest 1.87 to today 1.73...it is time to exit or got any chance to rise again? Pls all sifu guide n comment..tq