Posted by michaelwong > 2018-08-13 17:47 | Report Abuse

Depend on what price you bought in and it takes some risks to maximize your profits .

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-08-13 18:45 | Report Abuse

Ok Chang... Hope to hear fr u again... 10q....

Posted by xianchua > 2018-08-13 20:22 | Report Abuse

I still expect the PE to go at least 12 haha.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-13 21:29 | Report Abuse

same here...PE 12 for its revenue visibility....and more if it's growth is certain...

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-13 21:51 | Report Abuse

RJ87 the simple answer is to study the business. The elaborate answer is as follows.

How the market values a company (Stock Price) is both determined by the current worth of the company and how much people believe the company is worth. For a company like DUFU and the fact that they are in the Technology industry, the amount I believe the company is worth in the future is dependent on how much capital investment they put back into the company to take advantage of new technology.

To illustrate my point look at DUFU's financial statements I've shown below. The first table is how much money they put in investing in new plants and equipment for the year and the second line is the companies profit for the year. Check out the year 2011 and 2012. Look at how much money DUFU put in capital investment to keep their technology up to speed.

Capital Investment Net Profit
2006 RM8,366,083.00 RM7,861,756.00
2007 RM13,381,615.00 RM12,152,951.00
2008 RM7,924,276.00 RM978,473.00
2009 RM3,634,477.00 RM11,125,096.00
2010 RM7,942,748.00 RM4,017,702.00
2011 RM22,869,525.00 -RM2,773,862.00
2012 RM11,277,289.00 -RM3,279,272.00
2013 RM3,451,239.00 -RM2,346,350.00
2014 RM7,413,447.00 RM8,268,524.00
2015 RM5,001,450.00 RM18,973,943.00
2016 RM3,178,787.00 RM24,279,943.00
2017 RM5,267,440.00 RM21,779,044.00

The first Helio drives was released in 2012.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hard_disk_drives scroll down to the history year by year section.

If you understand how business run things you can see that DUFU was spending a lot of money to gear their manufacturing for new products in 2011 which is then released in 2012 in the form of a new HDD drive technology. Then within 2 years of the new HDD drive launch their profits starts to skyrocket. Until now when the new Helio HDD drive is now the big on demand item in the market so much so that all the HDD makers WD to Seagate just cannot meet demand.

Compare this with the other HDD makers in the market on their financial statements for the same year and you will see they don't spend as much capital investment as DUFU did. DUFU invested in the future and they are reaping the rewards currently.

Which goes back to the question how would I know if DUFU is trading above their worth.

It all depends on how I see their future. Currently DUFU is riding high on new in demand tech but that is fleeting and good for a few years. Eventually they will achieve market saturation of the new tech, Then I look and see if they are investing their capital wisely to take advantage of new technology for their future.

If not I wait until I think I see market saturation for Helio HDD. When I see signs of market saturation I exit because then their revenue would have stopped growing by then. If however I see they put a lot of their profits into capital investment then I go to their Annual AGM to ask them what they are investing in to determine if their new investment has future potential.

Now this takes care of my long term exit price for DUFU.

The short term one is if they hit something like 20 - 25 P/E then I'll seriously consider exiting for the short term until the P/E goes back to a lower amount.

However this depends on whether I determine if there is market saturation or not. If not I buy back if yes then I have to look if they reinvest their capital and the capital investment is good or not. If it is good even if I think the P/E is higher than the price I sold it at I would consider buying back into DUFU.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-13 22:17 | Report Abuse

Thanks CYF,

PE 20-25, that puts DUFU same category of Penta's capital gain potential. Do u charge for writing such long report? or updates on changes of fundamental?

I make similar assessment with less resolution. Have a look on VIS trading at PE18.
R&D, increased inventories conversion. I'm anticipating good quarter report that will put VIS at pe 20 above. But ofcos, it's not exactly undervalue n margin of safety is bad now.

Posted by shpg22 > 2018-08-13 22:26 | Report Abuse

OMG PE 20x
going to have wet dream tonite.

Posted by Chang Yee Fong > 2018-08-13 22:33 | Report Abuse

RJ87 I don't charge because I hardly ever talk about my investment strategy. In theory I should for DUFU but I'm already in good enough shape financially that I would rather have more educated value investors in the market. Hence I broke my usual silence and decided to post my DUFU research especially my research on SSD prices.

Because no insult to you or investor 9999 that was the missing info to make DUFU price skyrocket. Nobody could counter the one arguement that HDD is in the downswing compared to SSD. No matter how many times you guys brought up the good numbers and P/E ratio somebody would say HDD not as good as SSD and everybody would worry.

This is what I mean by understanding the business. My curse is I'm one of those who cannot leave a question unanswered at least to my own satisfaction and I will spend hours or days to research the answer. I don't just read what everybody is saying I go to direct sources and read the raw data themselves to find my answer.

Posted by Arjan1809 > 2018-08-13 22:44 | Report Abuse

CYF; thanks for sharing your in-depth research

Posted by perseushermes > 2018-08-14 08:54 | Report Abuse

CYF : thanks for the in depth analysis
Punters 72 : fire sale still on, you can buy but bollinger will sell to you

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-14 09:26 | Report Abuse

Push up la.....

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-14 09:31 | Report Abuse

Buybuybuy...

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-14 09:36 | Report Abuse

Good time to buy..

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-08-14 09:47 | Report Abuse

10q CYF 4 enlighten me abt Dufu...

Posted by Yael Jasper > 2018-08-14 10:19 | Report Abuse

become stronger and stronger

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-14 10:51 | Report Abuse

What CYF is doing is to educate people NOT TO BE like pang72. Punting left and right. And be investors that does his research. Identify growth or saturation. This is the only way to stomach price volatility.

The purpose of research is to identify revenue generation for 4-8-12 QR depends on the nature of the business and if current price is worth it's future earning. That's the real game you are playing.

The punting in between is more like trying to impress a disgruntled woman at her time of the month. Well, sometimes, it works; sometimes it doesn't.

The point is, do your research. If you don't believe; try date a woman in her 14th day of menstrual cycle. You have better chance of getting laid. DO YOUR RESEARCH. =D

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-08-14 11:28 | Report Abuse

10q - RJ87 for ur comments....

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2018-08-14 11:28 | Report Abuse

best stock ever

Posted by jordanmaggie61 > 2018-08-14 12:01 | Report Abuse

好好好

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 13:06 | Report Abuse

RJ87, I have my own method to earn money .
Punter is not a bad thing.

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 13:06 | Report Abuse

You continue doing your research . See who can last long in the market

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-14 13:24 | Report Abuse

No matter how much statistics that indicates how house always wins.
Yet, people still jump straight in.

This is human nature. Only a handful of people will appreciate what's CYF is doing. And to certain extend, some doesn't as it would reduces price volatility as they view it as "opportunity".

I'm sure everyone that goes up Genting has a method too. And he still believe that he does even before he jump off the building.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-14 13:26 | Report Abuse

no need. Extrapolate from past. Buffet is still there. =P

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 13:26 | Report Abuse

Haha...
3iii punya adik...Education....

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 13:28 | Report Abuse

My lion king traders has one free Honda Civic.
I am not as good as you..But I just want to be low profile

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 13:29 | Report Abuse

Anywhere, thank for your comments. Appreciate.

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-14 13:58 | Report Abuse

I'm sure nobody is interested in how many honda civic that you have lost.

I load up on your lion king when it fell to 0.63, larger chunk at 0.68 and I'm still holding it.
I want to see the QR.

Anyway, enjoy your honda civic and try not to lose this one. *wink.

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 14:04 | Report Abuse

I am enjoy my free Honda Civic in a week.
I am not interest on Dufu anymore at this price.
I don't think I can earn another free Honda Civic in Dufu.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-08-14 16:03 | Report Abuse

Wow very interesting here, now i do regret of selling. Ha ha.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-08-14 16:04 | Report Abuse

1.92 - 1.30 sold price = 62c profit opportunity loss. I had 500 lots, thats 31K in less a month.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-08-14 16:06 | Report Abuse

But ok lah, cannot earn at every place right. As long profit, thats good. Many were thrash out from jan-jun. Now time to recover. Enjoy.

Posted by dalpinia > 2018-08-14 16:46 | Report Abuse

New TP RM2.5

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-14 16:47 | Report Abuse

Well, DUFU gave CYF a 1500sq ft condo by now.

I do agree it's not as attractive at this price now, but if there if there is clear visibility of revenue growth of 15% YOY, then, PE20 is not too impossible. That depends on your investment period preference. Some can wait very long. Some is impatient.

Anyway, gambling is always more exciting than investing.

Posted by Hunter 88 Hunter 88 > 2018-08-14 16:57 | Report Abuse

Tp 2.2 hehehe.

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 17:15 | Report Abuse

Congrats CYF earn one condo .
I am just little not fortune and earn one Civic. Only.
Anywhere, good run for Dufu.

Posted by KAQ4468 > 2018-08-14 17:24 | Report Abuse

dufu dufu dufu

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 17:28 | Report Abuse

Bro. ...This one project completed...
Move to next one!!!

Posted by plroo7 > 2018-08-14 18:17 | Report Abuse

Wow... V good...

Posted by wincent > 2018-08-14 18:30 | Report Abuse

sold fpg bought dufu today is my lucky dayyyy

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-14 18:33 | Report Abuse

WHY I SELL DUFU

Posted by Simple man > 2018-08-14 18:34 | Report Abuse

sold all dufu to lock my profit

Posted by michaelwong > 2018-08-14 18:54 | Report Abuse

Sold too early......bang balls !!! Should have reserved some to enjoy the ride . From a low of 90 cents shot up to 1.95......unbelievablei in a short span period of time. Those with guts are laughing to the bank . ..... smiling with joy .

Posted by RJ87 > 2018-08-14 18:57 | Report Abuse

I tot u left Bcos this is stupid counter...
Suddenly, got something to sell...

Posted by laychee > 2018-08-14 19:04 | Report Abuse

This syndicate very geng.

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 19:04 | Report Abuse

Why so angry le?
Earn money still angry....
Be patient ...!!!
Respect other and stock invested.
Is Dufu a stupid stock?
Obviously not right.
Are you stupid? I guess not too.

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 19:08 | Report Abuse

RJ87, As you claimed CYF earn a condo in Dufu, I earn a Civic in lionind.
You maybe earn 2 condos in lion and dufu...
Why you still so angry le?
Be happy....Every where is opportunity as you are so smart and better than me

Posted by SuperPanda > 2018-08-14 19:46 | Report Abuse

pang72, i like you but pls stop bragging lah. no use bragging, dont make oneself feel good.

i dont think u enter lion at lowest 61.5c. new highest 1.14, max profit 52.5c.

if new civic 110k / 52.5c = 209K shares. Thats if really bought at bottom and sold at highest which is impossible.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-14 19:49 | Report Abuse

CHEER$,GUY$


Big profit$ ....or small profit$ doesn't matter


HAVE FUN

Posted by pang72 > 2018-08-14 19:55 | Report Abuse

Panda,
I am telling the true story. I stop here.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-14 19:58 | Report Abuse

I believe you earn that much.....

EXCELLENT