U.S. crude prices turned negative the first time in history on Monday, with virtually zero buyers turning up for prompt delivery oil in a market woefully glutted by the coronavirus pandemic.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $40.32 per barrel and settled the day at minus $37.63. That meant a notional loss of $55.90 per barrel from its Friday settlement of $18.27.
June WTI, which Investing.com is already quoting as reference for U.S. crude given its outsize volume to May, settled at $20.43 per barrel, down $4.60 or 18.4% from Friday’s settlement.
Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for crude, meanwhile, lost $2.51 on its front month June contract to settle down 9% at $25.57. June Brent was at a contango, or discount, of more than $4 to July Brent. Even more important, its differential to WTI — a big trade in oil — was at an unimaginable $63.
“I am worried about the dislocation of the WTI - Brent spread,” Igor Windisch of the IBW Daily Oil Brief said in a note Monday. “The worrying thing is that there is no support line for Brent.”
Since WTI futures began trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in April 1983, the lowest the U.S. crude benchmark had gotten to prior to this was $9.75 in April 1986.
“What this tells you is that there’s just a mega glut of oil out there, that’s not going to be clearing anytime soon,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital.
“As a matter of fact, we have a big problem on our hands in terms of storage,” Kilduff added. “The storage situation is filling up and refiners aren’t buying, motorists aren’t buying. nobody is buying; so there’s just a tremendous back up of crude oil throughout the system and you have to pay dearly now if you want somebody to take it off your hands.”
Amid the Covid-19 pandemic that’s destroying demand for oil faster than producers can cut, the market has been laser-focused on how much storage is left globally for crude and whether that will run out soon.
If I'm the operators of oil and gas industry, this is time where I take opportunity to do maintenance that required Shutdown i.e. Well Services, Topside Maintenance.
When price up, my platform will be up and running with high availability and of course high reliability.
That's World Class Operator.
Unfortunately, bearish printed all over it. If US market cannot correct what Asia market done to June 2020 Oil Futures, tomorrow will be bloodbath, particularly UZMA, Hibiscus, Dayang and other OG counters.
Singapore: US oil prices surged Wednesday after a turbulent start to the week that saw them fall below zero for the first time due to a coronavirus-triggered demand shock.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose 18.93 per cent to $13.76 a barrel, after suffering heavy falls in New York overnight.
WTI for May delivery on Monday collapsed to an unprecedented low of minus $40.32 as traders scrambled to sell it before the contract expired Tuesday, but could find few buyers with storage capacity fast filling up.
European benchmark Brent crude for June delivery was up 0.98 percent at $19.52 a barrel, after tumbling to an 18-year low the previous day.
On serious note, despite volatility of June contracts, OFSE should be on positive side. With surplus of oil, platform may shutdown or cutback production. So i would like to reiterate that OFSE companies ada chance to execute their maintenance, rectification, wireline well intervention or cleaning sand from their LPS. Hence, the platform will be in tip top codition, well enhancement/perforation job can be executed thus when oil back on track, PAC (like Hibiscus) can run thier production at full fledge, without bottleneck.
So in summary, with June contracts nose dived, PAC (I.e. Hibiscus) should take the hit and smart enough to allow OFSE (i.e. UZMA/Dayang/Dialog) execute their campaign. Hence, OFSE counters should be on positive side.
But all tied to cashflow, risk assessment and cost sensitivity analysis of PAC. But If they cant afford due to prolong low crude oil price, as I said, only God can save us.
International oil prices rebound following Trump warning
April 22, 2020 8:09 pm by Myles McCormick and Joe Rennison in London, Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and Matthew Rocco in New York
Brent bounces back from two-decade low after US president takes aim at Iranian vessels
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday after Donald Trump stoked Middle East tensions, saying that he had ordered US warships to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian vessels if they posed a threat. The US president’s intervention sent Brent crude back above $20 a barrel after the international benchmark had tumbled to its lowest level since 1999 on concerns over the collapse in global oil demand. The declaration from Mr Trump also helped buoy the high-yield bond market, which is heavily exposed to the fate of energy companies. BlackRock’s iShare high-yield bond exchange traded fund, known by its ticker HYG, rose 1 per cent, having dipped 1.8 per cent on Tuesday.
“I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,” Mr Trump wrote in a tweet. The prospect of renewed tensions in the Middle East gave crude a lift during a week where prices have struggled to contend with an evaporation in demand triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Brent rose as high as $22.45 a barrel and settled at $20.37, up more than 5 per cent on the day. The energy sector helped lead a rally on Wall Street that sent the benchmark S&P 500 up 2.3 per cent following two days of falls. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.8 per cent. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, rose 19 per cent to $13.78 a barrel. It almost halved during the previous session and earlier in the week fell into negative territory for the first time as producers were forced to pay buyers to take oil off their hands ahead of the expiry of futures contracts.
Brent crude remains down about 27 per cent so far this week. Oil production levels have remained robust even as the virus destroys demand, creating a supply glut. An unprecedented cut of almost 10 per cent of global supply by Opec and its allies will take effect next month, but traders worry it is not enough to offset the collapse in consumption. The head of the International Energy Agency on Tuesday called for the output reductions to be expedited and deepened. Opec members met by phone overnight, but there was no sign they would change their plans.
Brent oil price, the international benchmark, rises around 6% Crude oil futures climbed sharply on Thursday, at least partly supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to lift prices to help stabilize values, while China’s appetite for the commodity picked up in April compared with prior months. Saudi Arabia, the most influential member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is raising crude prices for its customers world-wide, according to Bloomberg TV.
Meanwhile, China’s imports rose to 10.42 million barrels a day in April from 9.68 million in March, according to Reuters data. Overall imports for the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest oil importer were down 14.2% from the year-ago period. However, exports from the country grew an unexpected 3.5% from the previous year. That data combined with hope of a slowdown in production by global oil producers and a gradual revival of economies around the globe after restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic are lifted are expected to eventually lift crude prices. “Oil is ruining up on hopes on rebounding demand,” wrote Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in a daily research note. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery CL CLM20+9.38% on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $2, or 8.3%, to $25.99 a barrel, after settling 2.4% lower on Wednesday, which snapped a five-session streak of gains. Global benchmark July Brent crude UK:BRNN20+5.99% picked up $1.54, or 5.2%, at $31.26 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 4% decline in the prior session.
The EIA reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose 4.6 million barrels for the week ended May 1. The data, which excludes changes in the SPR, marked a 15th consecutive weekly rise, but was smaller than the average increase of 7.1 million barrels forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Investors are also digesting the U.S. weekly jobless claims data Thursday which showed more than 3 million Americans lost employment, adding to the already 30 million figure that has been racked up over the past six weeks. Some signs of easing tensions between China and the U.S. may also be providing a lift to crude prices, as Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that U.S. trade negotiator Robert Lightihizer and his counterpart Liu He are scheduled to have a call to discuss progress on a phase-one trade deal between the countries that had looked in jeopardy of being quashed by President Donald Trump.
Based on announcement dated 27.02.2020, the group Profit Before Tax for cumulative Quarter 2 that is 31.12.2019 was RM24.467 mil compared to same corresponding period of RM16.516 shown an increased of approximately 48%. With the award of contract from Petronas on Announcement dated 02.03.2020and on the same dated accepting Sarawak Shell Bhd and Sabah Shell Petroleum Co Ltd as well as on 18.03.2020 from ExxonMobil. This has set a good based for the group in near term and is good for investors to look into this counter.
Recent announcement on Urusharta Jamaah Sdn Bhd disposed of 1.17 million shares resulted it stake reduce to 15 million Uzmas’ shares which is less then 5% is transacted in March 2020 and considered old news to the market. Furthermore with balance 15 million shares will be insignificant for market to absorb it
With the existing contracts especially in specialize oil and gas sector from Various oil Majors, the outlook for the company is expected to be good. The share price of this counter was around 95 sen to 97 sen at beginning of the year and with current share price of 58 sen the company PE was relatively low. Furthermore, the volume for T3 was 19.89 mil (05.05.2020), T2 of 16.98 mil (06.05.2020) and T1 of 7.38 mil (08.05.2029) which is shrinking at good rate. Hence, this look like a good accumulation and good counter to look into for portfolio
With Nymex crude oil stay above US$25.56 per barrel which set the base of higher level every round of rebound and the volume of the counter shrinking to 5.68 million shares trade as at yesterday (12.05.2020) compared to previous T3 volume of 19.89 million shares (05.05.2020) represent 28.5% of the volume. This show accumulation by certain investors on this counter. Furthermore, based on theory of the red candle already extremely close to reversal level of the pricing. Hence a good chance for investors to look into the counter
With volume shrinking to 9.58 million shares which is 56% of volume of T3 and considering yesterday record high volume on our Bursa Malaysia. It is highly likely that the accumulation or absorption being carried out by investors on the earlier volume traded. Furthermore, Nymex crude oil closed above USD$25.60 had shown that the price of crude will likely consolidate at above USD$25. Hence it is good for investors to look into this counter
Volume due on T3 (08.05.2020) was 7.38 million shares and T2 of 5.68 million shares (12.05.2020). This has shown that volume is relatively small for this counter from today onward on due volume. Hence highly probable this counter will move north and investors can consider based on low PE of 6 and solid contract in hand.
Based on Annual Report as At 30.06.2020 the financial statement last shown Cash And cash Equivalents of RM63.6 mil compared to RM60.1. This has shown stead build up of the company cash position couple with Positive Net Cash Generated from operating activities of RM11.8 mil and net outflow of cash from investing activities amounting to RM78.9 mil ( majority of the amount is for purchase of Property plant and equipment (PPE) of RM355.6 mil offset by proceed of disposal of PPE of RM302.8 mil) while net cash used in Financing activities of RM83.0 mil. The used cash to acquired PPE is considered good for the Group especially CAPEX highly likely able to generate cash for the group in near term.
The the bottom of Crude Oil Price adjusted higher each time and currently stay above USD$27 per barrel. Production cut by OPEC plus which expect to exceed level of demand shrinking will cause stock level to continue to decrease over next few weeks. This will push the price to a level closer to USD$30 per barrel I the near term and allow most oil major to have comfortable price range. Hence Uzma being oil related counter expect to perform well as based on financial indicators such as EPS, profitability analysis and cash position of the group
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
RedEagle
3,194 posts
Posted by RedEagle > 2020-04-20 22:23 | Report Abuse
Maday maday maday..