latest updates - Barakah added by Arena, CIMB & Maybank (O& G) small cap counters. Petronas awards for local O&G Co's. Barakah strong contender for other additional projects (apart from the Peninsular T+I) awarded recently. Looks like counter have more legs to run. This is my personal assessment
Othman 66 : 1.75 is ok. hold for mid term, feb announcement for Saudi project. Other PETRONAS contracts in the pipeline. dapat Saudi project, game changer!!!
i sikit lot only inari w.. that's why lo... sad sad now... i will hold this Barakah tight tight n wait for yr sell call ya(avoid making mistake again) ...tq
Based on my obversation on i3, many people were worried that Barakah-LA (7251LA) could potentially be redeemed by Barakah Offshore Petroleum Berhad ("the Company") at 0.20 per Barakah LA.
Based on my research, I feel that the chances of redemption of Barakah LA ("RCULS") by the Company is minimal.
Referring to page 9 (Point 4) of the Abridged Prospectus of Barakah, the rationale for issuing the RCULS is to enable Barakah to partially re-finance its bank borrowings and referring to page 10 (Point 5), the current interest rate of the Company is 8.1% per annum, by issuing the RCULS, they would have RM1.9million in savings per annum.
As such, these are the reasons I feel it is highly unlikely (Almost zero percent chance) that the Company will redeem the RCULS:
1. If the Company dont redeem it, they can continue to pay 3.5% interest on RCULS (Prior to issuing, they are serving 8.1% interest per annum on existing loans), which is significantly below market loan interest.
2. If they dont redeem it, there will be no cash outflow to the Company
3. It is better to let the RCULS holders to convert to Barakah mother shares because by letting them do so:
- They will pay lesser interest on the RCULS due to conversion of RCULS to mother shares (but the amount of loan they already raised is the same). Meaning they will be paying even lesser interest on the RCULS.
- No cash outflow to the Company.
4. Their directors themself are also holding the RCULS, if they redeem it, they also will lose alot of money.
I feel the chances of redemption of Barakah LA by the company is close to zero, as a redemption would defeat the purpose of issuing the RCULS (Which was to restructure their existing loans which carry interest rates of 8.1% - As stated in the Abridged prospectus). A redemption would be detrimental to the company as:
1. It will cause immediate cash flow problem due to a huge one off repayment of capital by the company.
2. An increase in interest rates to the company as it would need to seek for external loan.
Without redemption, the company has absolutely nothing to lose as:
1. No one off huge cash outflow. 2. Lesser interest cost (A conversion from RCULS to the mother shares would further lower the interest cost).
Thus I feel it is not a huge risk to hold Barakah LA. The only risk of holding the RCULS is if the mother share price shreds, instead of the redemption.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
t816b
131 posts
Posted by t816b > 2014-01-10 13:56 | Report Abuse
What's your target buy back price Anison?