Better second half expected for O&G players Written by UOB Kay Hian Mon Sep 08 2014 10:32:51 am Oil and gas sector
Maintain overweight: It was a mixed set of results for the first half of 2014 (1H14). Half of the oil and gas (O&G) companies in our O&G universe reported results that were within our estimates but the other half disappointed.
Notable disappointments included Bumi Armada Bhd, Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MHB) and Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd. Both SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd and Yinson Holdings Bhd will only release their first-half results later this month as their financial years end in January.
Bumi Armada surprised the market as it recorded lower utilisation rates for its offshore support vessel (OSV) and transportation and installation (T&I) divisions, leading to its earnings missing our estimates.
On the other hand, Perisai Petroleum continued to report weak earnings due to the non-charter of its mobile offshore production unit (MOPU) and derrick lay barge (DLB) while MHB faced operation issues, resulting in its inability to complete its projects on time.
Following a strong start in the first quarter (1Q14), we noticed that there has been substantial profit taking on small- and mid-capped companies in the O&G space. We expect a strong rebound to take place, led by Deleum Bhd, Yinson and Barakah Offshore Petroleum Bhd on the back of having secured new contracts and more work orders.
We expect 2H14 to be a better half for most O&G companies as activities ramp up before we enter the monsoon season in the late 4Q14.
We advocate investors to stay invested in companies that have a solid execution track record. The key themes that support our investment thesis include: (i) Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) capital expenditure programme to beef up domestic production; (ii) marginal oilfield awards; (iii) more enhanced oil recovery (EOR) initiatives; and (iv) the development of Petronas’ refinery and petrochemical integrated development project and associated facilities costing US$27 billion (RM85.9 billion) in total.
Within the four sub-sectors in our O&G universe, we downgrade heavy engineering to “market weight” as the macro outlook for the engineering, procurement and construction business remains negative. We leave the rest unchanged. — UOB Kay Hian, Sept 5
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 8, 2014.
Barakah Offshore Petroleum Bhd (Barakah) is expected to receive the final word on its US$1 billion (RM3.26 billion) tender for a five-year contract from Saudi Arabia’snational oil and gas company, Saudi Aramco, in August. ?????
VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION • Maintain BUY and target price of RM1.95, pegged to 14x its fully diluted FY15F PE (we assume full conversion of RCULS and the exercise of ESOS options). Our target PE is conservative as it is at a 15% discount to the sector’s 16.5x. We believe a re-rating could take place if the company is able to execute its orderbook. Assuming the stock re-rates to the sector average, our target price could be raised to RM2.24
RCULS: A cheaper proxy. Barakah’s RCULS, which could be converted from Oct 14 onwards, is a cheaper proxy (trading at a 10.6% discount) to its mother share. It is highly unlikely for Barakah to redeem the RCULS as the loan stocks were issued to refinance its debt for purchasing KL101. Thus, redemption (only possible in Apr 15) would mean higher cost of funds to the company. Furthermore, investors can start to convert their RCULS to mother shares in about five months from now.
Connie...i will be collecting bara on the next dip.it may be a bit too soon.I strongly feel that it will stay between 1.36 to 1.53 after this week(closing points))
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dell6400
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Posted by dell6400 > 2014-09-05 17:44 | Report Abuse
Saudi good news coming? why keep on dropping? or........