Haio once my favourite stock but sad to say the value is overstretched now. The stock should be trading around RM2.50 as I do not foresee the company can chalk up good result this year..
No more heyday in Haio...it performed quite badly since its height of 5.50 at one time . I had seen co major were buying aggressively ever since it dropped to 4, then suddenly quit buying until it dropped to its lowest level . Analysts r in the view that Haio may face more challenging tines given its products r not that important where tge customers may choose to opt out in bad times . Thus when the economy is good , it will b good . In poor economy times , its share may trade lower still . But the stock was saved by the co given high div payout all these while . If the div were to b low , then 2.3 may not be its low yet.
FY 19 profit is expected to be lower than in FY18 mainly due to the slowing demand of Haio products and the implementation of SST which is expected to increase the overall operational cost of Haio mainly due to the company’s decision to absorb most of the SST in order to price their products competitively. Expect profit margins to decrease in the 3Q19 result to be out this month.
Haio traded at a high of RM5.60 per share back in Oct 2017 and maintain above the RM5 level until March 2018. With a trailing 12 months profit of RM73.2mil, the above RM5 per share price translate to a PE of more than 20x. Investors was willing to pay the high price for Haio shares as they believe that the growth rate of more than 50% seen in 1H18 would persist or at worst would be maintain in the double-digit area for a certain amount of period. When this failed to materialised, some investors decided to sell the shares. This shows the risk of investing in high valuation companies. Investors need to make sure that the high valuation should always be compensated by a high growth in profit as well.
Using RM50mil as the profit target for FY19, at the current share price the company is now being valued at a PE of 15.7x. At this level of PE, investors still would demand some profit growth from the company. Any fall in profit would only makes this company seems to be overvalue when compared to others companies.
If you are looking to hedge your portfolio outside of HAIO (due to its earnings growth uncertainties and relatively high valuation), I would recommend you to look at MBMR. (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp)
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.3x PE based on FY18 profit of RM166mil. PB is low at only 0.7x BV.
FY19 should deliver another profit growth year to the company. Profit growth will again be driven by the performance of Perodua (via MBMR 22.6% holdings in Perodua) from the still strong sales of new Myvi, sales of SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza sometime in the 2H19. Aruz which commands a higher margin compared to other models, will help improve the total profit margin of Perodua (which will flow to MBMR’s bottom line as well).
MBMR is expected to achieve a profit of RM200mil in 2019. At the current share price, the company is being valued at only 5.1x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x PE. As an example, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
Mlm has its limitations because of higher payout to upline which made the products sold much more expensive . Haio should devise method like Alibaba or Lazada did by using web based method to market their products on line . This is the future trend o- marketing where products r sold far and wide . This way thd co can expand but no of employees reduced greatly . Overall costs can be reduced greatly n hence greater profits to minority shareholders.
Day 67 Fundamental Daily, YAPSS will be covering Hai-O Enterprise Berhad's fundamental via a short animated video. It is solely based on my opinion and I hope it helps :) #YAPSS #FundamentalDaily #HaiOEnterpriseBerhad
HAIO (7668) - Technical and Fundamental Analysis May 12, 2019 | HONG WEI GIET
Technical Analysis =========== - HAIO shares price achieved at RM5.350 on Dec 12, 2019, and is unable to overcome it since the record high up to now. - It broke neckline line at RM4.40 on July 6, 2018, with high volume and entered a consolidation phase for 8 months period. - HAIO shares price continued downward trend until year end of 2018 with bounce back on Dec 26, 2018. A great investment statement: Never ever try to hold a falling knife. - HAIO shares price entered descending triangle and tried to break-out on May 2, 2019, but it is seen as a fail
Business will b greatly affected once the competitors r employing web based marketing opposed to Haio MLM marketing . I see this co going fr bad to worst where their overheads r Huge but net profit reduced greatly.
such price already factoring in the low season for sales. Haio is one of very few MLM company can stay for decades. Of cause you need to expect some retailer to freak out and sell at discount.
hai -o business will not flying since hai-o was not involve network marketing like Shopee and Lazada.Unless Hai-o change his selling method, because the exec was paying high in salary , profit will dramatically lower down for profit margin.
Still well supported before the next result announcement which is expected to fall yoy as previous year's is too high. TP1.80 factored in profit down trend.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
signalmw
3,314 posts
Posted by signalmw > 2018-12-19 14:58 | Report Abuse
buy bye