Lester, why do you say dividend sustainability is in doubt? (I hope you look beyond reported EPS, as reported EPS can be artificially lower than cashflow, due to accounting depreciation. Cash is a cleaner way to look at this company).
@Lester, saw your past comments that you own this stock "quite heavily" - would your view on its dividend sustainability change if you only own this stock small (e.g. 4% of your portfolio)?
I have an unbreakable policy to never buy any single stock more than 5% of my stock portfolio. This keeps all my buy "relatively small, relative to my total portfolio" in order to be objective about every one of them. When we invest say 50% in 1 stock, it is hard to sleep because any small variations will cause worry and lack of objectivity.
It is around 1/3 of my total portfolio. I am still holding it, wait for the latest quarter report. Since the langkawi water concession end and highway tax waiver end, the cash flow was impacted, the JV also not doing good, bad things keep coming.
TALIWRK dividends will cost RM66.5m for H1/23, vs Net Cash from Operations (NCfO) of RM66.7m. H1/23 NCfO of RM66.7m is a significant improvement over H1/22 figure of RM37m, so at least this part is positive trend. The renewable energy is also doing better than prior year. Still looks to support RM1.65 dividend payment, with perhaps a positive bias, but the margin is thin, so, any negative surprise / bad news might cause the price to fall. That's why the dividend yield is so high. Dividend yield = 6.6 sen / 80 sen = 8.25%!!
If you feel pessimistic on TALIWRK, you may consider alternative hypothetical scenario of dividend cut to 4.8 sen per year (1.2 sen per quarter), similar to what they used to pay in Q3/2019 and prior. Under this scenario, 4.8 / 80 = 6.0% dividend yield, still beat EPF.
If you own small, you will not unduely worry about future adverse result or future dividend cut, because if the cause is temporary, then, low price is a friend to average down once price stabilizes. Very hard to lose if not greedy. (However, if you are greedy, it's a different story).
This kind of result seem to indicate that next quarter dividend has good chance to be 1.65 sen again, IMHO. I could always be proven wrong later since 3 months is a long time, and noone knows what will happen next 3 months. So, let's collect the 1.65 sen first after payment on 29 Sep, and then see what Q3 will be next.
@pinky, I'm not greedy. I already let go of my YTL after it delivered capital gains (net of comms) equal to 19 years of dividends, by holding a few short months.
@Lester, agree the transaction volume is very high, although this kind of action reminds me of 18/12/2020 volume/price action than Jan 22 volume/price action. In Dec 2020 action, the huge spike up was not sustainable and only good for 1 day. Whereas Jan 2022 action was high, but the price was already uptrending for quite some time and continued to make new highs higher than the day's high eventually. The question now is how does today's high volume portend for the coming days/weeks ....
Technically, it looks with majority odds, that the bottom after 1.5 years of downtrend may have been sighted. Today's price action hit 86 sen, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a common resistance. Given the 1.5 years downtrend, it won't be so easy for TALIWRK to continue to rise - low odds. More likely, it'll dip down to retest the bottom. So, if I didn't have a position, then, I would not chase and the high probability play is to wait for a retest and buy the dip.
Thank-you TALIWRK! On 20/10, I added at 79 sen. Today, my queue to sell part of this purchase was executed at 86 sen! THANK-YOU for contributing to make my portfolio hit a new high again today! That's 4 consecutive days of portfolio new high!
Taliworks Corp Bhd's Q3 2023 net profit rose to RM13.54 million boosted by increased results from jointly controlled entity Grand Sepadu (NK) Sdn Bhd, attributed to toll compensation. https://urlis.net/2hciy6d1
The Board is pleased to declare a fourth interim single-tier dividend of 1.0 sen per share on 2,015,817,574 shares amounting to RM20,158,000 in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2023, to be payable on 29 March 2024.
Water. Revenue climbed higher by 6.0% driven by the increase in chemical and electricity rebates. There was a 2.4% hike in BWSR rates in FY23. Average MLDs came in lower by -2.8% which is within our range of expectations. At the operating profit level, there was a decline of -4.2% mainly due higher rehab & maintenance expenses. Profitability for the segment is expected to improve with a 14.3% tariff hike (effective 1-Jan-24).
Tolls. ADT at the Grand Saga Highway and Grand Sepadu showed encouraging YoY growth at +7.3% and +2.8% respectively, benefitting from increased car usage vs FY22 which encompassed periods of pre-endemic conditions. Additionally, Grand Saga traffic was aided by the opening of SUKE highway. Despite the ADT growth in the period, profitability was lower on the back of higher rehab and maintenance charges.
Construction. Revenue nearly doubled in FY23 due to the progress of the Package 2 and 3 of Rasau water scheme. We expect to see stronger performance from this division with projects showing signs of ramping up. There are also two water opportunities in the pipeline in Selangor which Taliworks could participate in.
Forecast. Despite the results shortfall, we make no changes to forecasts as the construction segment is positively ramping up.
Maintain HOLD, TP: RM0.81. Maintain HOLD with marginally lower SOP-driven TP of RM0.81 (from RM0.82) after rolling over valuation for is concession businesses. Uncertainty over its new level of dividends could weigh on share price in the near term. Nevertheless, we acknowledge the company’s highly cash generative business exposure. Upside risk: water project wins; Downside risk: lower dividends from current levels.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Lester Teow
55 posts
Posted by Lester Teow > 2023-08-10 12:18 | Report Abuse
DIVIDEND: High(8.3% DY), Consistent (1.65 cent), Frequent(pay each quarter)