PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BERHAD

KLSE (MYR): PMETAL (8869)

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Last Price

5.80

Today's Change

+0.02 (0.35%)

Day's Change

5.74 - 5.83

Trading Volume

6,036,900


18 people like this.

15,871 comment(s). Last comment by Cakes Moon 2 weeks ago

mystery

494 posts

Posted by mystery > 2021-10-22 11:32 | Report Abuse

on the way down, like glove?

meistsk3134

2,368 posts

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2021-10-22 11:57 | Report Abuse

aluminium still in high price

nisah395

155 posts

Posted by nisah395 > 2021-10-22 14:36 | Report Abuse

going below RM5 ?

nisah395

155 posts

Posted by nisah395 > 2021-10-22 14:41 | Report Abuse

HLIB still giving good TP

We are ecstatic and upbeat about Press Metal’s earnings prospects in the next 12-18 months, primarily due to: (1) soaring LME aluminium spot prices; (2) the progressive ramping up of the group’s Phase 3 Samalaju expansion project which will boost its overall smelting capacity by 42% to 1.08mil tonnes annually (from 760K tonnes previously); and (3) additional earnings boost from its 25%- owned PT Bintan alumina refinery (Phase 2) which is targeted to fully commission in 1HFY22. Maintain BUY with TP of RM7.42 (25x P/E on FY22F EPS).

Soaring LME aluminium spot prices. YTD aluminium prices have averaged at US$2,398/tonne and last chalked at c.US$2,915/tonne. It has recovered significantly by c.+100% from a low of US$1,465/tonne in April 2020 (when Covid-19 broke out).

Only the beginning of a multi-year bull cycle. We are expecting a sustained bull run in global aluminium prices over the next 12-18 months with the synchronised decarbonising movements to achieve net zero carbon emission and the general recovery post-pandemic across most countries. We envision the world at large to enter into an aluminium deficit in 2022-23F, in which demand would severely outstrip supply globally. This would ultimately lead to a drop in aluminium inventory in the London Metal Exchange (LME), lifting aluminium spot prices.

Phase 3 Samalaju and PT Bintan update. The Phase 3 Samalaju is targeted for full commissioning by Oct 2021, boosting its effective smelting capacity by 42% to 1.08mil tonnes (from 760K tonnes currently), which is a vital catalyst for earnings growth in FY22-23. Also, the group’s PT Bintan alumina refinery project has begun phase 1 (1.0mil tonnes annually) commissioning in 3QFY21 and is targeting completion of phase 2 (an additional 1.0mil tonnes) in mid-FY22.

Long-term business sustainability from investments in 25%-owned PT Bintan and 5% effective stake in Worsley. Combined, PMetal’s effective total alumina exposure via these two strategic holdings would be 355k tonnes, 605k ton nes and 730k tonnes for FY21-23F respectively (based on our assumptions). From a long-term business sustainability perspective, PMetal will be able to hedge against the volatility in alumina prices from its strategic stake in PT Bintan and Worsley.

Favourable alumina-to-aluminium ratio. YTD 2021, alumina prices have averaged at US$296/tonne and they were last seen at US$373/tonne (Figure 1). On average, alumina was trading at 12-13% of LME aluminium price YTD (current: 12.8%), which is significantly lower than the norm of 16-17%, signalling upside potential.

Forecast. Our earnings forecast is based on an average LME aluminium selling price per tonne of US$2,550, US$3,150 and USD3,250 for FY21-23F respectively. We have imputed these few key hedging assumptions: (1) 65% hedged at US$2,050 for FY21; (2) 55% hedged at US$2,200 for FY22F; and (3) 35% hedged at US$2,300 for FY23F. Our alumina cost per tonne forecasts are US$334, US$385 and US$444 for FY21- 23F respectively.

Maintain BUY with TP of RM7.42. Our TP is based on FY22F EPS of 13.7sen pegged to a P/E multiple of 25x, which is in line with its 3-year historical mean P/E. We may increase our ascribed P/E multiple for Press Metal as we note that the group deserves a premium in its valuations to reflect: (i) the group’s favourable cost structure as bulk of its energy costs are locked in via 15-25 year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Sarawak Energy Bhd; and (ii) its low carbon footprint as its smelters are hydro powered, making its ESG profile more favourable to investors.


Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 7 Oct 2021

kewking

43 posts

Posted by kewking > 2021-10-22 15:11 | Report Abuse

rebound

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-22 15:32 | Report Abuse

Alluminium price drop… rapidly…

kewking

43 posts

Posted by kewking > 2021-10-22 15:40 | Report Abuse

dun worry,it's temporary, will raise up again

mingtee3

66 posts

Posted by mingtee3 > 2021-10-22 22:07 | Report Abuse

Luckily disposed at 6.20. Thks Pmetal!

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > 2021-10-22 23:29 | Report Abuse

RHB analyst 22 October 2021

2022F

Average selling price (USD/t) 6,000

Capacity (tpa) 72,000

PMB Silicon Cash Profit (MYR millions ) 1043

PMB Silicon Net Profit (MYR millions) 958

Hector99

30 posts

Posted by Hector99 > 2021-10-23 11:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > Oct 22, 2021 11:29 PM | Report Abuse

RHB analyst 22 October 2021

2022F

Average selling price (USD/t) 6,000

Capacity (tpa) 72,000

PMB Silicon Cash Profit (MYR millions ) 1043

PMB Silicon Net Profit (MYR millions) 958



Mr.Sm Invest123, Please kindly post the link to this RHB analyst report. Thank you.

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > 2021-10-23 14:14 | Report Abuse

dear buddies, Please hold PMB over the long-term.

BASforce

220 posts

Posted by BASforce > 2021-10-25 00:20 | Report Abuse

loosing or winning is up to them, no need to tell them to hold, believing in what u invest and knowing what u hv invest is the key... join the sardines run will not effect me as i'm the solo baracuda...

Kevin Tam

525 posts

Posted by Kevin Tam > 2021-10-25 13:13 | Report Abuse

What happened to head of analysts of HLG ? Given higher n higher TP to Press metal ( like last year those research houses given super high TP to Topglove) whereas the shortage of copper n aluminium actually being exaggerated by the West/ top investment banks… With the rich valuation of Pmetal n the prices of aluminium can drop back to USD2600-2800 in next year if those top producers of China n Asia boost their production, don’t see any point those research houses given high valuation of PE 40-45 of next year earnings to Press metal …

nisah395

155 posts

Posted by nisah395 > 2021-10-25 13:36 | Report Abuse

thanks for sharing

Kevin Tam > What happened to head of analysts of HLG ? Given higher n higher TP to Press metal ( like last year those research houses given super high TP to Topglove) whereas the shortage of copper n aluminium actually being exaggerated by the West/ top investment banks… With the rich valuation of Pmetal n the prices of aluminium can drop back to USD2600-2800 in next year if those top producers of China n Asia boost their production, don’t see any point those research houses given high valuation of PE 40-45 of next year earnings to Press metal …
25/10/2021 1:13 PM

Mabel

23,400 posts

Posted by Mabel > 2021-10-25 14:40 | Report Abuse

#kewking dun worry,it's temporary, will raise up again
22/10/2021 3:40 PM

Fundamentally, P Metal is a BUY, with new MYR8.50 TP from MYR8.00, 44% upside. Press Metal’s buoyant earnings outlook may find yet another leg up from its upstream investments, namely on silicon metal and alumina, where it would have an enlarged effective stake of 15,000 and 560,000 tonnes next year.

At prevailing market prices, its non-aluminium exposure implies another >10% upside surprise to our 2022F earnings of MYR2.4bn.

Weather Forecast from Technical Chart below
Moving Average (Short Term) WEAK
Moving Average (Mid Term) STRONG
Moving Average (Long Term) STRONG
Ichimoku Kumo STRONG

Resistance is at RM 5.97 while Support is at RM 5.58. So it's an opportunity to accumulate at the current price. All the best!

Cakes Moon

6,855 posts

Posted by Cakes Moon > 2021-10-27 11:00 | Report Abuse

Aluminium price has reached its peak & begins on a downward trend.

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 11:02 | Report Abuse

most of construction material drop exspecially steel since last week... not really encourage to buy first... Brent oil and palm is more stable now...

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 11:04 | Report Abuse

Brent oil also drop but not much... don't mad at me... just stating the fact... wait if it go up once then only buy...

pete tf

531 posts

Posted by pete tf > 2021-10-27 11:12 | Report Abuse

Still holding.

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 11:15 | Report Abuse

imagine from 3170 drop to 2800... last time when I buy at 5.40 while alluminium price 2780.. just observe and wait for entry price..

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 11:21 | Report Abuse

sorry my entry price last time 5.28 not 5.40... let see after Thursday if going up back only buy...

Posted by harvestent > 2021-10-27 15:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Kevin Tam

525 posts

Posted by Kevin Tam > 2021-10-27 15:34 | Report Abuse

Those strong supporters of Press metal n those buying Pmetal at RM5.30-5.80 should blame HLG n their research team........GIven TP of 7.30 even Press metal has climbed up from RM3-3.50 12-15months ago to now, share prices at more than RM5.50 n market cap of RM46-48 billion.....Whatever counters or producers of products, metal products gone up more than 100-150% in 1-1.5 years time, time to be cautious, dont trust those research houses more than 60% should be safer nowadays...

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 15:44 | Report Abuse

insane 2761... ya Kevin... exspecially those product highly affected by world price... like construction material...

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 15:49 | Report Abuse

just my thinking china cut output... that make price higher... but eventually price drop due to lesser demand due to china control the property price in china...

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 15:49 | Report Abuse

and reported other country able to cover the shortage of material..

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-27 15:53 | Report Abuse

and everything too expensive due to inflation... never thought this come so fast... just prepare cash and observe better...

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-28 00:54 | Report Abuse

but guys... believe me tomorrow big crash on this stock... please sell first or cutloss... whoever believing me...

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-28 00:55 | Report Abuse

que sell early morning.. will definitely below 5.6. unless you able to hold long...

meistsk3134

2,368 posts

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2021-10-28 08:23 | Report Abuse

yes. aluminium price start drop
as usual 1 year high same like 2017

MiaoMiao7

449 posts

Posted by MiaoMiao7 > 2021-10-28 08:40 | Report Abuse

Party is over, get ready to start a PMetal and Steel Telegram Group and post reasons why there is some USA conspiracy, or Banker press the price down or how aluminium got bright future. Do it like TG and Serba group.

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > 2021-10-28 08:49 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 28): RHB Retail Research said PMB Technology Bhd is poised for a rebound as it bounced off mildly from a recent pullback to hit the RM14.00 threshold yesterday on surging volume.

In a trading stocks note today, the research house said if the stock manages to breach above that level, strong buying interest may drive the stock towards the RM15.00 level before it reaches the RM16.30 all-time high level.

“Conversely, falling below the RM12.20 support level will cancel this expectation,” it said.
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Stockhunter88

2,031 posts

Posted by Stockhunter88 > 2021-10-28 13:16 | Report Abuse

Next resistance is 5.400..if break really need to run d

nisah395

155 posts

Posted by nisah395 > 2021-10-28 16:56 | Report Abuse

Exactly. when HLIB raise buy call, time to sell.

Kevin Tam > Those strong supporters of Press metal n those buying Pmetal at RM5.30-5.80 should blame HLG n their research team........GIven TP of 7.30 even Press metal has climbed up from RM3-3.50 12-15months ago to now, share prices at more than RM5.50 n market cap of RM46-48 billion.....Whatever counters or producers of products, metal products gone up more than 100-150% in 1-1.5 years time, time to be cautious, dont trust those research houses more than 60% should be safer nowadays...
27/10/2021 3:34 PM

meistsk3134

2,368 posts

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2021-10-28 20:25 | Report Abuse

run for what? this stock got potential. see how many bonus it give

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-10-29 03:30 | Report Abuse

30 million of share dispose.. hope can press down the price... gonna buy this on lower price...

kewking

43 posts

Posted by kewking > 2021-10-29 09:47 | Report Abuse

Rebound! More and more is coming

meistsk3134

2,368 posts

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2021-10-29 18:56 | Report Abuse

pmtel big drop, government implement new tax

nisah395

155 posts

Posted by nisah395 > 2021-10-30 07:36 | Report Abuse

the new tax has big impact?

meistsk3134 > run for what? this stock got potential. see how many bonus it give
28/10/2021 8:25 PM


meistsk3134 > pmtel big drop, government implement new tax
29/10/2021 6:56 PM

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > 2021-10-31 01:18 | Report Abuse

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4014468/Minor-metals/US-silicon-price-nearly-triples-in-7-weeks-makes-US-priciest-region.html

US silicon metal price nearly triples in 7 weeks, makes US priciest region

Silicon metal prices in the United States reached a new all-time high on Thursday October 28, making the price for US material - which has almost tripled in seven weeks - now the most expensive in the world.
The US price for standard grade silicon (5-5-3) surpassed that in Europe, which had been the most expensive region prior to Fastmarkets’ assessment there on Friday October 29.
Fastmarkets assessed the price of silicon grade 5-5-3 98.5% Si min, in-whs Rotterdam at €6,800-8,500 ($7,846.52-9,808.15) per tonne on October 29, down from a peak of €8,500-8,650 per tonne that prevailed from October 8 to October 22.

Meanwhile, Fastmarkets assessed the price of silicon, ddp US at $4.25-5.20 per lb on Thursday, up...

Posted by Lamshuntee > 2021-10-31 14:14 | Report Abuse

Wow the forum is full of toxics and negative aura.

Posted by warrenchok90 > 2021-11-01 16:04 | Report Abuse

seem alluminium bottom price is 2700 and look strong.. it's good for long term if for longer time investment

Posted by Lamshuntee > 2021-11-01 20:15 | Report Abuse

RHB has maintained a “BUY” recommendation on Press Metal Bhd at a trading price of RM8.50, 53% upside and 1% yield.

RHB said that Budget 2022’s introduction of a one-off windfall tax is unlikely to have a pertinent impact on Press Metal going into 2022, given the ongoing Pioneer Status tax holiday for its primary smelting hub in Samalaju (960ktpa).

It said that its estimates are therefore maintained, with our back-of-the-envelope calculations indicating an FY22F EPS impact of <2%. All in, we believe that the windfall tax impact may, at most, translate into a 2% impact to PMAH’s FY22F EPS,” it said.

RHB said that as such, it makes no changes to its earnings estimates and SOP-derived TP of MYR8.50 – the latter having accounted for a 6% ESG premium mainly reflecting the group’s environmental and governance credentials.

On the key downside risks include a sharp deterioration in global economic conditions, unfavourable commodity price movements, and setbacks in commissioning its Phase 3 Samalaju smelter and Bintan alumina refinery.

Hamsip

50 posts

Posted by Hamsip > 2021-11-04 08:47 | Report Abuse

This company sells it's product by volume to 1 Switzerland. 2 Singapore. 3 China. Can anybody tell me how China economy slowdown will affect this stock

Hamsip

50 posts

Posted by Hamsip > 2021-11-04 08:48 | Report Abuse

And how higher energy n electricity costs can affect it's profits

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > 2021-11-04 18:51 | Report Abuse

Oct 28,2021 14:04CST
Source:SMM

From January to September of 2021, the output of silicon metal increased by 39% year-on-year, and the annual output is expected to reach a record high of 2.78 million mt.

SHANGHAI, Oct 28 (SMM) – From January to September of 2021, the output of silicon metal increased by 39% year-on-year, and the annual output is expected to reach a record high of 2.78 million mt.

The insufficient power supply will inevitably lead to a decline in the output in Q4. The impact of the dual control of energy consumption is more significant on the supply of silicon. The major silicon metal producing regions including Yunnan, Xinjiang, Sichuan will have to cut the production, where the silicon plants cannot maintain the normal production from September to November. The power shortage also restricts the production. The downstream production in the major silicon consumption areas in east and south China has been mostly resumed after the short-term production restrictions.

The silicon metal production in Yunnan and Sichuan will decline in Q4 due to the upcoming dry season. The large plants in Xinjiang will also lower the operating rates due to the power shortage and the control of energy consumption. China’s output of silicon (Si content ≤ 97%) and secondary silicon totalled 240,000 mt from January to September 2021, which will supplement the shortage in the silicon metal supply. The lower overseas prices encouraged the imports. The total silicon import volume reached 4,000 mt from January to September 2021, up 782% on the year.

The seasonal increment in the silicon metal inventory in end 2021 will be far lower than the 10-year average

The higher domestic demand and declining exports will lead to the lower port inventory of silicon metal. The increment in the silicon metal inventory is lower than the 10-year average level in 2021, and a new inventory cycle has started. The total social inventory in end-2021 is expected to stand at around 70,000 mt, down 13%.

Prices of silicone and polysilicon rise along with silicon prices

Siloxane: The strong demand has boosted the silicone prices to hit a record high, and the mainstream prices are correlated to the silicon raw raw material prices. The domestic supply continues to make up for the overseas supply gap. The DMC prices are expected to stand at 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt.

Polysilicon: The skyrocketing silicon metal prices have pushed up the polysilicon prices. However, the silicon prices may pull back due to the low downstream operating rates in November and December.

The surging silicon prices change the aluminium alloy pricing models

Secondary aluminium alloy: The power curtailment, supply shortage of aluminium scrap, high silicon prices, chip shortage for cars, and other factors affect the operating rates of secondary aluminium alloy plants.

Primary aluminium alloy: The prices of silicon, the major auxiliary material, have surged, and the primary aluminium alloy producers have suffered the losses. The aluminium alloy prices are settled based on the silicon prices.

The production and sales of automobile continue to grow. The production and sales from January to September 2021 increased by 7.5% and 8.7% respectively.

Profits of silicon metal export turn positive, the control on the foreign exchange affects the overseas quotations

The silicon metal exporter suffered significant losses from May to July, and the losses narrowed in August, then turned into profits in October.

China's silicon exports in September 2021 were 72,000 mt, up 6% month on month and 32% year on year. The exports totalled 605,000 mt from January to September, up 40% year on year.

The demand growth rate of silicon metal stand at 21% in 2021. The production of the new capacities of the silicone and polysilicon is worth attention.

There are 800,000 mt of new capacities of silicon monomer have been put into production in 2021, and the exports in 2021 are expected to be near 800,000 mt, up 29% year on year. The capacities of 140,000 mt will be put into production in Q4 2021. The total silicon material output is expected to reach 480,000 mt, up 22% on the year. The total output of cast aluminium alloy in 2021 may grow by 9% on the year. The annual growth rate of the total domestic and overseas demand of silicon metal is expected to be 21% in 2021.

Price forecast

There is basically no new capacity of silicon metal in 2021. The new capacities will be put into production intensively in the rainy season in 2022.

The new capacities of silicone monomer and polysilicon will be put into production mainly in Q4 2021- H1 2022.

The shortage of the silicon metal supply in H1 2022 will depend on the power supply in the dry season in south-west China and the downstream production capacity.

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > 2021-11-04 18:51 | Report Abuse

The downstream production expands rapidly amid the stagnated low supply, and the the shortage will intensify in 2022.

The silicon metal prices will remain in an upward trend under the dual carbon policy, and the pricing logic of resource-based commodities will be changed. The silicon metal prices may rebound in November amid the shrinking supply, the recovering demand of aluminium alloy, and the overseas restocking before the Christmas holiday. However, the prices may decline in December as the silicon plants will reduce their stocks. The silicon prices will stay high until the rainy season in June 2022, and the upward trend of the prices may extend until 2023. The delayed commissioning of the silicone and polysilicon capacities, the shrinking consumption of the silicone after the pandemic, and the new capacities to be put into production may bring risks to the market.

The shortage of production capacity will suppress the silicon output, and the low grade of raw materials may drag down the output of high-grade silicon. The silicon supply is expected to remain tight in the short term. Most of the silicon metal consumption was in the silicone and polysilicon sectors, while the consumption in the aluminium alloy and export sectors declined. The tight supply has weakened the profits of the silicon metal users, and the upstream companies in the silicon industry started to profit.

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2021-11-04 22:47 | Report Abuse

Aluminium(London) -3.33%

Lucifer999

599 posts

Posted by Lucifer999 > 2021-11-04 22:54 | Report Abuse

Aluminium (US)-32.60 (-1.21%)

Hamsip

50 posts

Posted by Hamsip > 2021-11-05 01:22 | Report Abuse

Softness in pmetal price in early November presents good chance to accumulate.... Pmetal will keep creeping down in tandem with falling aluminum lme price......

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