monetary.....u dun scared me oh......i hope what u say is not true la....not because i hold kesm. I dun hv kesm at all. I more worried for the excellent gooshen. If what u say is true ah, excellent gooshen go jump river also no help ohhh.....
I still sleep well at night. Going down another 1.00 makes me feel so excited than having aaaa nothing to worry as this price is rather safe. Release the horse can push down, you see eventually the new Substantial holder appears to be the excellent GooShen!!!!
I think kesm is cheap enough now.. once this trade war is over , and it earnings back to 80sen to $1 per year, the stock will go back to previous high $20.. But now just have to wait..
In good times kesm will be a cash cow , you see now the company also sitting on few hundred million of cash.. It has also increasing dividend every few years..
Look at penta, its doing test machine just like kesm... Penta is the wonder boy and best of class.. So kesm shld try to adopt similar good mgmt like penta or get some of penta customers..maybe it shld try approach intel, micron, broadcom, etc
These customers are mnc's .. they can afford to pay millions for its test and burn in services..
Anyone can make the test machine actually..The test machines are produce by the parent sunright and also from several other brand.. Nowadays the big mnc outsource their burn in test to other companies, thats where kesm & others comes in.. This save them the cost to buy the machine and need to maintain salaried staff to do the tasks. Right now, the mnc is affected by trade war, hence their orders are lower...hence , once their order improve after trade war over, kesm will be cash generating cow again, like previously making good profit of 80 sen to $1 a year.. once that happen the share then wont be this low.
Well the 2% is the 1 year trade war impacted profit margin in 2019.. this of course is low..as they have to juggle lower orders/profit and reduce the expenses. from 2014 to 2018 profit margin are around 13% to 15%.. So once the situation normalised depends on trump and Xi, it will be back to usual.. So but once back to normal, share price wont be this low..
KESM Industries Bhd (Sept 20, RM7.23) Maintain hold with a higher target price of RM7: KESM Industries Bhd’s financial year ended July 31, 2019 (FY19) core earnings collapsed 76% year-on-year (y-o-y) largely due to the ongoing inventory correction.
However, there was a strong earnings improvement in the fourth quarter ended July 31, 2019 (4QFY19), albeit off a low base, and this could signal that its weak earnings momentum has bottomed.
We have modelled for a further earnings recovery in FY20, projecting a growth of 127%, although profits are not expected to reach its previous peak in FY17, at least over the next three financial years.
KESM reported a strong set of 4QFY19 results that was above expectations. The surprise was largely driven by better-than-expected margins during the quarter.
Core net profit for the quarter jumped 738% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), albeit from a low base, largely due to margin improvement.
The 4QFY19 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin jumped 2.1 percentage points (ppts) q-o-q as product mix improved, a likely result from lower electronic manufacturing services (EMS) work while the proportion of revenue generated from its burn-in and test increased.
Management has guided for a progressive recovery barring any escalation of trade tensions and the global macro slowdown, in line with our current FY20 forecast.
We made some slight adjustments to our FY20 to FY22 earnings per share post the results.
FY19 core earnings declined 76% y-o-y, but dividend per share (DPS) pleasantly surprises FY19 core earnings contracted by a sharp 76% y-o-y to RM9 million although revenue only fell 12% y-o-y.
This was largely due to the loss of operational leverage and hence a collapse in Ebitda margins (-6.9ppts y-o-y).
The unfavourable shift in revenue mix towards the lower-margin EMS work had also partially buffered the revenue decline, while negatively impacting margins.
Despite the weaker set of results, management announced a FY19 DPS of nine sen, or a payout of 62%, above its historical range of 10% to 31%.
Amid the inventory correction that KESM is facing, we believe the company remains well managed, as reflected by its healthy quarterly performance and net cash position.
We remain positive about the company’s long-term prospects as the company is well positioned as a captive burn-in and test provider for the automotive industry.
Key downside/upside risks include a loss/gain of customers and a reduction/gain in outsourcing opportunities. — Affin Hwang Capital, Sept 20
Wow....continue to discuss on weekend ah? U all dun be so pessimistic la. U r indirectly affecting xcellent Gooshen. He has been looking at the screen over the weekend despite market close and face a'dy green green. KESM is currently having a fade drop and fake consolidation. It has chance to rebound to 8 and possible 9 in short term and go back to RM 20 in long term for Gooshen to be released from being trap.
Hehehe...Below average n becoming worst...Good cash flow but for how long if no turnaround...Wait for another 2 quarters red...@4.00 n below probably can consider...But let see how its Margins...Products don't seem to have competitive advantage at present...!!!
Told you rite? Nothing to worry. My average is 7.35, drop $1 more also can sleep well, Penta is in final stage of disposal. No run sure regret. Hold tight in kesm, will have big profit ahead.
I guess the key to kesm share price success in the shorter term wld be if trump and xi agree for a deal.. or if trump is gone... Trump currently is facing impeachment.. So that is great news
Told you to run these few days but ppl don’t take it seriously. Now US market crashed, Dow Jones drop 500 points, and tomorrow this counter will limit down as everyone panic about economy crisis. Please listen to the excellent GooShen, just sell when market open tomorrow or you really lose all.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
shareinvestor88
3,404 posts
Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2019-09-23 21:08 | Report Abuse
POOR QTR. BETTER SELL TP 2