When and if the next quarter results show another 2 sens and above EPS with less idled OSVs, and no impairment Armada would rise further (to 70 sens or more ? ) . Current price still at early real reflection of market confidence of its turn around.
Temptations to sell is strong if one mainly base on the rising speed of Armada share price ; perhaps looking at its improving fundamentals and signs of sustaining such performance may give us some strengths to tame our temptations and hold further to enjoy its full valuations later...... 43 % paper profit is good but may not good enough yet looking at Armada business potential.
I'm with 102% paper profits. Will keep holding at current price levels, but if it can go above RM0.55 next week, might sell. If go above RM0.65 in next 2 weeks, confirm sell also.
Long term wise, Armada has the potential to go above RM1.
- Just imagine, EPS for last quarter was 2.45 sen. Core net profit (adjusting for impairment etc) was 2.90 sen.
- By Q1 2022, they will have Armada Sterling V operational in India. Profit contribution per annum is around RM120mil. This is worth EPS 2 sen per year (or EPS 0.5 sen per quarter).
- In H2 2021, there is a good chance of securing contracts in the Caspian Sea for their subsea assets. This will bring in about RM200mil revenue per annum.
- They are paring down debts. Interest rates are still maintained at current levels. As such, finance costs should continue reducing each quarter. Again, less finance cost translates directly to more profit.
- Depreciation costs should also reduce as many OSV have been either impaired or sold.
- Only major risk for impairment is Armada Claire, and maybe the Caspian Sea assets if they don't get any contract in H2 2021.
- There is also an outside chance of getting additional FPSO contract this year. There is a very good chance of getting additional FPSO contract next year (when financial situation will be even more improved).
- In rising oil price scenario, more work for all OSV. Utilisation rates will be higher. Asset disposal prices will be higher as well.
All the points above are supposition. But what we know is, Armada core net profit in 2020 was around RM480mil, roughly EPS of 8.15 sen. Even if none of the above turns out to be true (which is very unlikely), we are already at a base EPS of 8.15 sen. Armada is selling at under 6x PER.
Fear of missing out is ever present in our mind when are are staring at yet to be cashed in good profit . ( More of a trader than an investor ) It takes a lot of mental strengths to resist the temptations cashing in.
Easy said than done for many.of us . Admired how well Nikicheong knows Aramada’ operations but surprised he may cash in . I am not saying this is right or wrong but wonder if it is how our minds play us as a share trader or business investors. I will wait for now i.
Only reason I said I may want to sell is if the price jumps alot in the next week or two. Cause there is highly likely a pullback later on. I bought at RM0.225, and I will be tempted to derisk if I get a good value now. Can always buy back later.
Reason I know Armada fpso operations well is really due to hours upon hours of research done. Looks at FPSO Claire Court documents, look at tender documents, look at the reports of operators such as Enquest (Kraken gpso) and Pharos Energy (Vietnam fpso).
Bumi Armada is in very good hands people. They are looking to exit OSV and go all in for FPSO.
Yes I agree, fact findings of the share we invest in are more reliable than wishful thinkings or heard mentality following. Fears mongering with hear says are the useful tool by shorting sharks to spread panics.
Thanks for your generous insights and thoughts sharing.
@ Nikicheong, Only reason I said I may want to sell is if the price jumps alot in the next week or two. Cause there is highly likely a pullback later on. I bought at RM0.225, and I will be tempted to derisk if I get a good value now. Can always buy back later.
06/03/2021 7:59 PM
Understand your risks management and also learning from your method too. I missed out cashing the last time it spiked to about 50+ sens before. This time I have more confidence as the CEO Gary seems to be more hands on than the previous the predecessor.
Straits Inter Logistics Berhad and its subsidiaries (“Group”) was established as manufacturers and traders of cleanroom filters and other water filtration products. Our Group then expanded the trading of filtration-related products to include water filter cartridges and charcoal fines and granules, and the trading and distribution of fast moving consumer products.
In pursuing a long term sustainable business model that would contribute to positive returns, our Group diversified into oil bunkering and trading. In 2015, our subsidiary, Selatan Bunker (M) Sdn Bhd, commenced oil trading and bunkering via a collaboration agreement with Tumpuan Megah Development Sdn Bhd.
Bunkering services refers to the provision of marine fuels to ships, as well as other ocean faring vessels, such as oil tankers, container vessels, cargo vessels, cruise ships and ferries, as well as vessels utilised in the upstream oil and gas industry such as offshore support vessels, submersible and semisubmersible rigs and FPSO vessels.
Customer included REPSOL, PERDANA, BUMIARMADA, PETRA, VELESTO, ENSCO.
STRAITS will be benefited into oil and gas industry
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Alexloc04 MM78 and Nikicheobg What is the price range for this round ? Any guesstimate.? 07/03/2021 9:03 AM
Hi Alexloc04,
When you say this round , does it mean it look at Armada more as a share trader ?
I am more interested to look at it as medium to long term business investor. I can’t predict price fluctuations and its timing , the market determines its price and influenced by heard mentality or syndicates causing volatilities .
The current price is still below Armada NTA and the company is making good core profit in the lat few quarters, I believe it is undervalued for now given its strengthening fundamentals plus pending world economy recovery from pandemic Covid 19.
I would think 10-12 times EPS of Armada for now is not unreasonable given its business model and its latest progress .
Would you buy into and hold the investment of a company which is recovering from its trough years, increasingly profitable and yet its share price is still below its NTA ?
The next few quarters can be very interesting for its share valuations , my guess.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Joyce126
627 posts
Posted by Joyce126 > 2021-03-06 04:16 | Report Abuse
The uptrend is just started. Hold or buy more if you have extra bullets