Good 4 consecutive Quarters of profits, just 1 more quarter of half-billion profits plus big boss raid the counter, the sky is the limit, but of course, oil price must hit USD82 and above.
Not so fast, world economy not stable as yet with the covid vaccination still ongoing. Russia and Arab still playing roulette on oil supplies. Definitely, going to move one day but when? Consider several plausible factors before Armada sets sail towards the morning sun.
Posted by Bon888 > Aug 27, 2021 3:57 PM | Report Abuse
Bro! the best time to collect was a few weeks ago when the price was around 0.39 0.40. Now, the ship starts sailing north again. Bon voyage !!!
We maintain BUY on Bumi Armada with a higher sum-of -parts (SOP) based fair value of RM0.76/share (from an earlier RM0.72/share). This also reflects a neutral 3-star ESG rating and implies a FY22F PE of 6x, half of its 5-year average of 12x.
•Our FY21F–FY23F earnings have been raised by 27 % from a 5-percentage point increase in EBIT margin assumption to 50% for the group’s floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) division.
•This stems from the group’s 1HFY21 core net profit(excluding net impairments of RM72mil) of RM375mil (+78% YoY) coming in above expectations, accounting for 69 % of our FY21F net profit and 78% of street’s. As a comparison, 1H accounted for 39%–49% of FY18–FY20 core net profit.
•The group’s 1HFY21 revenue inched up 2% YoY while EBITDAwas flat. However, 1HFY21 core net profit surged 78 % YoY from a 23 % drop in interest costs, 9% decline in depreciation and a lumpy turnaround in associate contribution.
•Bumi Armada’s 1QFY21 core net profit rose 39% QoQ to a record RM227mil, the highest quarterly earnings since listing in 2011. This mainly stemmed from a lumpy 5.6x jump in associate contribution, RM17mil reversal of deferred tax provision and positive minority charges from variation orders at operation and maintenance operations.
•The 2QFY21 operating profit of the main floating production & operation (FPO) segment, which accounted for 87% of group revenue, slid 5% QoQ to RM345 mil due to higher lumpy operating costs for Armada Olombendo. Nevertheless, the vessel availability was high at 99% (vs. 98% in 1QFY21), translating to an 8% QoQ rise in FPO revenue to RM533mil.
•The offshore marine services (OMS) disposed of 2 vessels in 2QFY21 which partly led to this segment’s operating profit to drop 42% QoQ to RM7mil. Even so, this segment’s revenue rose 22% from the in -chartering of third-party vessels whilethe dwindling number of vessels caused utilisation rates to rise to 70% in 2QFY21 from 44% in 1QFY21.
•Meanwhile, the group’s firm order book slid by 6% QoQ to RM14.9bil from revenue depletion, partly offset by a weaker ringgit. Together with optional extensions worth RM9.5bil, this translates to 9.5x FY21F revenue.•Besides the existing projects that continue to support its cash flows, Bumi Armada plans to further pare down its debt and fully monetise its OMS assets, in which 6 of the 14 remaining vessels have already been earmarked for disposal.
•Valuation-wise, we view Bumi Armada’s FY21F PE of 3.5x as unjustified vs. FBMKLCI’s 17x as the group has stabilised its core earnings and balance sheet health with the optimisation of Armada Kraken’s operations since 4QFY20.
•Valuation-wise, we view Bumi Armada’s FY21F PE of 3.5x as unjustified vs. FBMKLCI’s 17x as the group has stabilised its core earnings and balance sheet health with the optimisation of Armada Kraken’s operations since 4QFY20
The Petroleum Industry Act has been signed into law by the President of Nigeria.
Previously, this was a stumbling block to the final investment decisions of a bunch of offshore projects.
One of these projects is Eni's Zabazab-Eta development (120,000bopd).
During the bidding rounds back in 2017/2018, Bumi Armada was the favoured FPSO operator.
The project may be sanctioned within the next few months.
Will this be Bumi Armada's big break?
If indeed so, the delay has been a blessing in disguise. Bumi Armada has been able to clean up its books, and the project financing will be available at much fairer rates.
Quarterly report for the financial period ended : 30 Jun 2021 Revenue: 615,556,000 Profit/(loss) : 113,652,000 before tax Profit/(loss) for : 123,896,000 the period Basic earnings/(loss) : 2.38 per share (Subunit) Net assets per share : 0.60 (NTA) Date Announced: 27 Aug 2021
Can forget about Woodside. As far as I am concerned, after reading the court documents, it is clear that Bumi Armada failed to fulfil its contractual obligations, and hence Woodside had solid technical grounds to terminate the contract. The truth is, the contract was terminated for convenience because the project no longer made economic sense. But it is Bumi Armada's own failings that gave Woodside that opening.
without advance impairment lost 103m and 12.2m net profit of disposed 2 omv vessel,103m-12.2m=90.8m will add another around 1.5cts eps.so should be how much eps this quarter?ha ha
Next few quarters would have minimum chance of impairments after this latest impairment given lesser remaining OSVs with rising charter % plus trending up oil prices. Year end EPS may even reach 10 sens and beyond.I do appreciate Nikicheaong's advice " dont be a slave to the stock" ( it also reminds me of Mabel similar cautions before) as I experienced the stock price swings often by market sentiments apart from the fundamentals. Armada is the largest investment in my share portfolio since 2015 and I did buy and sell some portions in between to cash in while stockp price rose or sell some portion when fears striked but later added back when testoterone runs high again.Not all the times I could get the price right in between but this stock has been rewarding to me. I am glad the Armada mgt has made good progress paring down the debt consistently with improving operating cash flows to reducing financial cost.Its ROE is improving as the consequence of reduced financial costs too. Next 2 quarter good results would boost the share price to 8 to 10 X EPS levelas I see Armada is heading towards safer water with its new Captain onboard. Good luck to Armada Investors. Those continue to spread negative views on this stock are prehaps pure traders who got their hand burnt most of the times I guess.
Armada registered 2Q21 core earnings of RM210m (+42.0% QoQ, +77.0% YoY). The result was above expectations, constituting 75% of our and consensus’ forecast due to better than expected performance from its FPSO segment and higher vessel availability. We upgrade our earnings forecast for FY21/22/23 by 29/11/11% to factor in better overall FPSO performance going forward. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of RM0.80 based on 8.0x FY22 EPS (rolled forward from FY21). Armada is our top pick for the O&G sector as its valuations are still undemanding at this juncture despite the c.100% increase in its share price since our BUY call upgrade on 21 July 2020. Armada is currently trading at FY21/22PE of 4.2x/4.7x, with a significantly stronger balance sheet.
Maybank - 0.52 to 0.58 CIMB - 0.48 to 0.55 AmInvest - 0.72 to 0.76 RHB - 0.51 to 0.57 PublicInvest - 0.58 to 0.64 JF Apex - 0.42 to 0.55 Hong Leong - Maintain at 0.80
Yes, Maybank Investment Bank Research 3 days ago on 27-8-2021 was upgrade it's BUY call for Armada from Previous Target Price of 0.52 to the latest 12 month Price Target of 0.58 !
Maybank - 0.52 to 0.58 CIMB - 0.48 to 0.55 AmInvest - 0.72 to 0.76 RHB - 0.51 to 0.57 PublicInvest - 0.58 to 0.64 JF Apex - 0.42 to 0.55 Hong Leong - Maintain at 0.80
Average TP = 0.635. Keep it up Armada!
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
RedBerry
4 posts
Posted by RedBerry > 2021-08-27 15:29 | Report Abuse
See you at the next quarter… now focus on accumulating more …