Last time when oil at USD 70, Hibiscus is about rm1.10. They produce about 10k barrel per day. Now i think is about 20K barrel day. Also at that time, BIMB analyst give target 1.73......now less than half. Interesting oh....
agree @popeye113. if you observe by yourself every counter sure have this kind of trading condition. They all is small kaki in the market call "Master Guru".
USD 65 to 70 per barrel is increase of 8% but from company profit. It is an increase of 35% assuming breakeven is USD 50. If not mistaken hisbiscus opex is less than USD 40 or USD45
Biden sent us warplanes to mid east. Also saudi israel n uae also getting ready for iran.houthi attacked saudi on iran instructions.although it's not good to profit fr war but I think it will spike oil prices n hibi profit.
I am jojobaa, the person who predicted that Armada will make a big time 4q profit in 2020. I was right.
Now I am here to also predict that Hibiscus will also make a big time quarterly profit for the ending march quarter to be reported in May.
Why? Very simple. If we want to simplify things we can reasonably expect Hibiscus to report a huge improvement over its 2Q2021 profit which was reported a week ago.
We first make an assumption that every quarter, all else equal, say Hibiscus makes 10 mil net profit, with 1 million barrels of oil sold. We also note the disclosure that the locked in oil price is circa USD40 which was agreed during Covid with Trafigura.
Now based on such assumptions, the full yearly profit of Hibiscus is very easily calculateable as follows:
3.2 million production per year
Oil price of A) 55 USD B) 62.5 USD C) 70USD
Based on 3.2 million production per year, and based on the USD oil price, Hibiscus's net profit is implied to be: 32 million PAT
Now we assume that Hibuscus sells the remaining 3.2 million at a range of USD55 to 70, which is the underlying oil price now. The incremental net profit shall be:
3.2 million x USD 15 (differential of oil price now and then)*0.615 (profit after tax rate)*4 (exchange rate) = RM118 million
and
3.2 million x USD 30*0.615 (profit after tax rate)*4 (exchange rate) = RM236 million
This brings a incremental net profit after tax of between RM118 million to RM236 million
To sum up, if you think Hibiscus can sell its 3.2 million barrels of oil at USD55 per barrel, a fair assumption is that Hibiscus's PAT shall be RM118 million + 32 million = RM150 million
If you think Hibiscus can sell its 3.2 million barrels of oil at USD70 per barrel, a fair assumption is that Hibiscus's PAT shall be RM236 million + RM32 million = RM278 million.
According to Hibiscus's latest quarterly report, the locked in oil price with Trafigura in Q2 has been fulfilled and one can assume that Hibiscus will lock in significantly higher price for its cargoes moving forward. Hibiscus should also be the stock which has the highest postive relation with oil prices moving on an uptrend.
I believe some of the traders are following brent oil's price. When it drop a bit, they sell their ticket. So what i can say is - it is better collect now when it is still consider cheap.
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Posted by Miz Raya Bloom > 2021-03-08 10:10 | Report Abuse
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