Posted by Boringguy > 2022-03-17 17:38 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/03/17/oil-surges-after-iea-warns-of-shortfall-in-supply

i seem like my friend information is correct.. IEA already issues warning.... start april will start see the issues... because russia has no choice they need to off some of the production due to no buyer and no investor invest and maintenance the oil production... russia production volume is hard to be replace..Good luck!

Posted by ks5S > 2022-03-17 17:59 | Report Abuse

oil steady above 100

Posted by derrtan > 2022-03-17 18:26 | Report Abuse

Boringguy....hard to say..either they can produce more sell it cheaper to who willing to buy.

Posted by Boringguy > 2022-03-17 19:40 | Report Abuse

Derrtan.. at first i also think like that.. after my friend told me some payment process then i know it is impossible... only China can do it because russia and china can trade in Yuan.. but also risk on that because russia money no value therefore hard to justify.. unless those buyer willing to use gold to trade ? as long you use USD or Euro need go thru swift and they will trigger alert to US and Euro..this will create another conflict.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-03-17 19:48 | Report Abuse

@Boringguy
Very likely will be China using Yuan currency.
The other will be india.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/14/energy/india-russia-oil/index.html

Posted by derrtan > 2022-03-17 21:10 | Report Abuse

one must think if war over does it mean sanction lifted?

Posted by Moneymore > 2022-03-17 23:16 | Report Abuse

Thks to recent market down, you can collect Hibiscus below 1.1, wait for 25-May for explosive QR from Repsol deal.

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-03-18 07:39 | Report Abuse

morning..
let see today..can sustain above rm1.08
or will crash back below rm1.05..


tut tut
let see..
stand to hold for now..

Posted by williamtkb > 2022-03-18 09:32 | Report Abuse

Big players won't sell cheap even shark drops. Waiting next wave above rm1.30

Posted by VFTRADER > 2022-03-18 09:55 | Report Abuse

Following assumption for 2022-CQ1 result:
[1] Excluding Repsol biz
[2] Average oil price in CO1 = US$95 - US$100
[3] Total barrel of oil sold (UK+Sabah) = 850k

So, estimated NP = RM65mil (EPS=3.3sen]
Can hit??

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-03-18 10:06 | Report Abuse

@VFTRADER

This assumption will not be prudent.
In the last 100 years, crude oil stay above USD100 for less than 5 years.
Besides that, US shale rigs are always very disruptive to the crude oil market evidence in 2014-2015. In about 1 year only US shale can bring the collapse of crude oil from USD 110 to USD31.

Posted by air01557 > 2022-03-18 11:12 | Report Abuse

If you missed out on Hibiscus then can buy Carimin

Posted by BIGBUYER888 > 2022-03-18 11:49 | Report Abuse

Today target 1.19~1.20

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-03-18 12:06 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EIA-US-Shale-Production-Set-For-Big-Jump-In-April.html

Posted by air01557 > 2022-03-18 14:24 | Report Abuse

Hibby - Carimin show continues

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2022-03-18 21:01 | Report Abuse

hibi going back rm3.00 like old time?
sapura already dead LOL

Posted by kahhoeng > 2022-03-18 21:25 | Report Abuse

Hibiscus Q2 generated a revenue of 284 million (or about 95 million per USD 25 crude oil) and a profit of 48 million on an average selling price of USD 75. Assuming the exchange rate has barely change and the production is about the same as Q2, Hibiscus Q3 should be able to generate a revenue of 379 million and a profit of 93 million (assuming 50% of the additional revenue is profit) based on its current asset ex-Repsol deal and average selling price of USD100 per barrel. Repsol deal should only contribute 2 months of revenue and profit given deal completed end of Jan. Exactly how much is yet to be known. My guess, assuming the Repsol deal is about to contribute 50% of profit, Hibiscus should be able to report 150 million profit for Q3. What do you guys think?

Posted by twynstar > 2022-03-18 22:16 | Report Abuse

Andurand Sees $200 Oil By Year-End As Biden Sends SPR To Record Lows


And as you say, when we’re in the opposite scenario where inventories are very low and there are places in the world where a delivery of certain contracts, such as Cushing in Oklahoma for WTI, where the tanks are all empty and there's no oil in those tanks anymore. If somebody is long futures and tries to take delivery of oil at that place and that point in time, well, nobody can deliver, and then you can go to any price.



https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/andurand-sees-200-oil-year-end-biden-sends-spr-record-lows

Posted by rr88 > 2022-03-19 14:13 | Report Abuse

Ukraine - Russia peace agreement is within sight. You wake up one morning, agreement reached overnight while you sleep, oil hit limit down while you sleep, hibiscus share price open limit down in a blink of an eye. Nothing you could do to limit your losses. Jaga2. Dont happy2 play2 arr. It will make you cry soon.

Posted by twynstar > 2022-03-19 16:26 | Report Abuse

Estimation of 3QFY22 net profit after repsol acquisition

Presumption :
1) Total operating days for North Sabah/Anasuria from Jan till March 2022 = 31 + 28 + 31 = 90days

2) Total operating days for Repsol from 24/01/2022 till 31/03/2022 = 8 + 28 + 31 = 67days

3) Average Brent price from 01/01/2022 till 18/03/2022 = USD 95/bbl

4) Average realised selling price for oil = USD 95/bbl + 5% premium = USD 100/bbl

5) Daily net production rate of North Sabah/ Anasuria for 3QFY22 is similar with 2QFY2022

6) Daily net production crude oil ( oil + condensate) of repsol = 9511 bbl/day

7) Daily net production gas of repsol = 47MMscfd =48,880MMbtu/day. Estimated average realised selling price of gas for repsol = USD 3.7 /MMbtu

8) For the last 4 quarters ( with average realised selling price more than USD 60/bbl) , net profit margin of North Sabah was around 23%. OPEX and taxation ( PITA 38% ) of repsol almost same with North Sabah. So we can presume net profit margin of Repsol for crude oil = 23%

9) Natural gas for repsol is less profitable than crude oil, so let’s presume the net profit margin of natural gas is around 15%

10) USD to MYR conversion rate = RM 4.1

11) For investing holdings and group activities, hibiscus recorded net loss of RM 12.2m in 1QFY22 and another net loss of RM 12.2m in 2QFY22. So we estimate hibiscus most likely will record another net loss of RM 12.2m in 3QFY22.


Net Profit of North Sabah for 3QFY22
= 5937bbl/day x 90 days x USD 100/bbl x RM 4.1 x 23%
= RM 50.4millions

Net Profit of Anasuria for 3QFY22,in view of
1) inconsistency of net profit margin,
2) average realised selling price for 2QFY22 was USD 72/bbl and estimated average realised selling price for 3QFY22 was USD 95/bbl (without 5% premium, increasing 31.9%),
3) UK Heren NBP Index Natural Gas price for 3QFY22 is higher than 2QFY22,
4) we presume 3QFY22 net profit of Anasuria will also increase 31.9%
Net Profit of Anasuria for 3QFY22
= RM 16.9m + ( RM 16.9m x 0.319 )
= RM 22.3m

Net Profit for repsol crude oil for 3QFY22
= 9511bbl/d x 67days x USD 100/bbl x RM 4.1 x 23%
= RM 60.1m

Net Profit for repsol natural gasl for 3QFY22,
= 48,880MMbtu/day x 67days x USD 3.7/MMbtu x RM 4.1 x 15%
= RM 7.5m

Net loss of investing holdings and group activities for 3QFY22
= RM 12.2m

Total net profit of hibiscus in 3QFY22
= RM 50.4m + RM 22.3m + RM 60.1m + RM 7.5m - RM 12.2m
= RM 128.1m


1) Hibiscus bought Anasuria UK in March 2016 with USD 52.5 million, recorded negative goodwill ( profit) of RM 361 million in 4QFY2016

2) Hibiscus bought North Sabah in March 2018 with USD 25 million, recorded negative goodwill ( profit) of RM 206 million in 4QFY2018

3) Valuation of Repsol assets by RPS Energy in 1 January 2021 was USD 285 million, with oil price scenario of around USD 55-60/bbl

4) Hibiscus completed Repsol assets acquisition on 24 Jan 2022 with USD 212.5 million

5) Most likely Hibiscus will ask RPS Energy to revaluate Repsol assets, with oil price scenario of possible USD 80-90/bbl

6) Most likely Hibiscus will record another negative goodwill ( profit) from Repsol acquisition in 3QFY22 , maybe around RM 200m to RM 300m.

So for accounting purpose, net profit 3QFY22 will be around RM 330 to RM 430m


Historical price and average price of Brent oil
https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-historical-data

Daily net production crude oil / gas for repsol
Estimated average realised selling price of gas for repsol
page 174, circular part 1 ( the second last page of circular part 1) :
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3218076


UK Heren NBP Index Natural Gas price
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3ANBP1!

Posted by Nepo > 2022-03-19 17:27 | Report Abuse

Thanks @twynstar, very good analysis.

Posted by Nepo > 2022-03-20 05:47 | Report Abuse

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/%E6%B2%B9%E5%83%B9-%E6%93%94%E6%86%82%E6%B2%B9%E5%B8%82%E4%BE%9B%E6%87%89-nymex%E5%8E%9F%E6%B2%B9%E4%B8%8A%E6%BC%B28-4-222700820.html

Posted by Nepo > 2022-03-20 11:14 | Report Abuse

https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/markets/oil-prices-climb-as-traders-assess-supply-risks-122031900081_1.html

Posted by WannaBeTechAnalyst > 2022-03-20 16:36 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/saudi-aramco-2021-profit-soars-plans-capex-boost-2022

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-03-20 16:45 | Report Abuse

@twynstar thanks for the great analysis with some detailed disclosure on assumptions
My assumptions are about the same as yours. However, I would like to just share a perspective that all investors/ shareholders to always exercise scenarios in their models to ensure you have some level of probabilistic approach towards your valuation

in my case, I have created scenarios with several assumptions on:
1. avg realised price of Brent bbl per quarter
2. potential costs of finance on the CRPS (around 4% per annum)
3. potential rise in SGA costs
Granted, I do not do much in terms of discount rate (not DCF for Hibiscus) but yes investing in an uncertain macro-inflationary environment can have some risk aspects on this. (Spike in discount factors, WACC)

But I still think markets today are even more susceptible to behavioral biases. Investors are struggling for yield and some form of returns to fight inflation, so quality names with good macro tail wind should help Hibby (esp as its financial risk is relatively low vs for example Sapura, which is screwed at this juncture- Not even PNB or Datuk Anuar can do much with so much in Sapura's closet!)

Posted by zhangzuode > 2022-03-20 18:46 | Report Abuse

twynstar - thank you for the analysis.

mokluhanj21 - thank you for the assumptions. One question - why is there a cost of finance of the CRPS as majority have converted, thanks.

Posted by Phoebe > 2022-03-20 21:43 | Report Abuse

@rr88, peace is gd for everyone. Brent drop to $85 is good for hibiscus in long term.

Posted by twynstar > 2022-03-20 22:26 | Report Abuse

mokluhanj21 - thank you for your good suggestions.

Another excellent write up by zhangzuode !!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ZZD/2022-03-20-story-h1600338629-Hibiscus_coming_BOOM.jsp

Posted by zhangzuode > 2022-03-21 08:26 | Report Abuse

Thanks twynstar for the promo.

My Q3FY22 earning is RM 122M with oil price at 95, Anasuria-160K barrel; NS-575K b; Repsol-1,160k boe. I was lazy in breaking Repsol into oil and gas, good job there, twynstar.

Wishing all a great week ahead, PEACE.

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-03-21 08:31 | Report Abuse

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3814548-morgan-stanley-raises-oil-price-forecast-again

Posted by vinc3362 > 2022-03-21 08:32 | Report Abuse

Morgan Stanley now sees Brent oil prices at $120/b in Q3 (up from $100/b), $100/b in 2023, and thinks oil prices could average $150/b for the remainder of 2022 in a " bull case"

Posted by air01557 > 2022-03-21 09:47 | Report Abuse

No peace agreement in sight - oil prices will head towards 120 this week

Posted by BeeNeutral > 2022-03-21 10:01 | Report Abuse

Hibiscus just needs oil price of 75usd to match MaybankIB's TP of 1.9 so any oil prices above 75usd is a real bonus.

Posted by Baby Shark > 2022-03-21 10:17 | Report Abuse

Run la.. don't wait here talk everyday, wasting time

Posted by value_seeker > 2022-03-21 10:23 | Report Abuse

You run already. You need people sell to buy back. Wait if you can buy back or the price increase further.

Posted by Legend > 2022-03-21 10:44 | Report Abuse

21 Mac - KONFLIK RUSIA-UKRAINE | Rusia memberi Ukraine tempoh masa sehingga jam 5 pagi waktu Moscow hari ini bagi menyerah bandar Mariupol.
Pengarah Pusat Pertahanan Kebangsaan Rusia, Kolonel Jeneral Mikhail Mmizintsev dalam satu kenyataan berkata, sesiapa yang menyerah diri akan diberi laluan keluar dengan selamat dari bandar itu.

Posted by kingkong99 > 2022-03-21 11:23 | Report Abuse

EU is to mull a Russian oil embargo this week with Pres. Biden expected to join in the talks

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-03-21 15:34 | Report Abuse

@zhangzuode thanks for highlighting that all the remaining CRPS have been converted! my bad I thought there are still some balance left. apparently 24Feb22 mandatory conversion. (Should be better news to my model haha :))
also wow! @zhangzuode 's FCF for 2023 is RM677 mil. giving an FCF yield of 28% whoa :P
BTW thanks guys for the great analysis! nothing beats having smart, diligent co-investors to learn from and share notes with
this goes to @twynstar too!

Posted by DragonG > 2022-03-21 16:25 | Report Abuse

Well done @Zhangzuode @twynstar @mokluhanj21.
Peace of mine with you all around.....

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-03-21 16:56 | Report Abuse

done sold back 57% share on hand..
sold from 1.18-1.20..

lock back capital..
secure big some profit..
its only tactical step..

with balance share avrge at rm1.06+
paktua will hold until above rm1.40
will reload back if below rm0.63..



tut tut
stick with own mehtod..
swing always swing..
walaupun pernah write akan sold above rm1.30
but with current situation paktua need to act..

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-03-21 17:18 | Report Abuse

alamak..
wrong write regarding level will reload back..
supposed write rm0.93..

so will reload back if hit rm0.93 below..


tut tut
iyaaaaaaa

Posted by BeeNeutral > 2022-03-21 17:37 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffett has bought some stakes in an oil company. Now another Indian Billionaire is planning to get some stake in Another oil company. They must have seen something ahead https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indian-Billionaire-Discusses-Buying-Stake-In-Saudi-Aramco.html

Posted by nimblecloud88 > 2022-03-21 17:43 | Report Abuse

Boom boom boom, Hibiscus to the moon

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-03-21 18:02 | Report Abuse

also, i wanted to add that there are 2 currents supporting outperformance of Hibby going fwd:
1. a stable average Brent price bbl around 90 to 100 per quarter
2. arguably more importantly: the increase in no of barrels produced by Hibby with Repsol and potential new acqn

Also, I have not seen any Management on Bursa disclosing to the public such a stringent acqusition IRR of 12% or more if not mistaken (per their Circular)- execution remains to be seen, but stating it means you're committing to it.
(So many GLCs on Bursa are so useless, chickens when it comes to real performance!) So kudos on this.

But yes, watch out for risks as well.

Posted by DatoChiakaLiau > 2022-03-21 22:28 | Report Abuse

Oil prices rallied early on Monday amid EU consultations about potentially joining the U.S. in banning imports of Russian oil.

As of 7:45 a.m. ET on Monday, WTI Crude was up 3.87% at $108.91 and Brent Crude was trading up 3.93% at $114.29

Posted by DatoChiakaLiau > 2022-03-21 22:29 | Report Abuse

Another uptrend week ahead. Holding tight

Posted by Moneymore > 2022-03-21 23:17 | Report Abuse

Expect to retest 1.35 soon

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-03-22 06:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-03-22 07:03 | Report Abuse

Oil Prices Jump As European Countries Consider Banning Russian Crude
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 21, 2022, 9:00 AM CDT

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-European-Countries-Consider-Banning-Russian-Crude.amp.html

Oil prices rallied early on Monday amid EU consultations about potentially joining the U.S. in banning imports of Russian oil.
As of 7:45 a.m. ET on Monday, WTI Crude was up 3.87% at $108.91 and Brent Crude was trading up 3.93% at $112.30. 

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-03-22 09:45 | Report Abuse

morning...
bungaraya..dah berlepas..


tut tut
lai lai