Great close to 1st quarter average prices of brent: Jan: $84bbl,Feb:$94bbl, Mar:$103bbl With the new Repsol+ can't wait to see if the profits are per some of the calculations/ forecast here. Would be very interesting
Jst count brent oil USD 90 , hibiscus sales how much n profit how much . u wan including repsol or dun wan including oso can... jst count for it.. one month Left QR come out i think they sell sum cargo of oil oledi ..
with good fundamental and potential profit i think later even government investment arm also would interested to come and invest including khazanah, PNB, Tabung Haji and KWAP.
Let me be your fake technical guru for the day. Without volume, Hibiscus share price has shown resilient. If it breaks and close above 1.24, another new high is expected. Otherwise, sell when it closed below 1.11. A technical guru is like fortune teller. Can never can wrong. Always either/or
@izoklse ahaha i think yes some institutionals would buy but PNB? low blow bro haha. kesian PNB team kena billion in impairment from Sapura, as well as loss transmission via Maybank and CIMB (which PNB is a major/ significant holder) haha
SAPRNG what??. Hibi shud consider their stake in SapOMV instead. They will embark on Jerun gas dev project next year. Jerun has a sizeable reserve. Rite now they are pure gas producer in Sar.
If oil continue to stay above $100 till end of the year, repsol acquisition is fully paid off. It is as if you bought a hse and 2 yrs rental, it fully paid off. By then if oil drop to $80 also doesn't matter la.....coz it is consider free a'dy. Mana mau cari ohh...
think problem is oil trades are in USD, other countries are trying to move away from petro-dollar oil trade. no one knows what will happen when china buy in yuan and india in rupee what will happen to the USD/barrel benchmark. oil demand is there, the pricing issue is a bit problematic once oil supply countries deal outside USD
all investors are sitting tight with high certainty HIB next QR will be tremendous unfortunately non-savvy retailers are dumping tickets based on daily Brent crude price. sad reality
1) The current crude oil cycle is quite different from the previous traditional cycles. Dr Ken is quite bullish about Brent price for next 2-3 years, average USD 80-110/bbl. He also predicted the Brent price will fall when the O & G midstream service companies start making huge profits.
2) Hibiscus is not selling crude oil everyday. Hibiscus sells crude oil by using offtake ( cargo). 1 offtake is equal to 250,000-300,000 barrels of oil. For 1 year, North Sabah will be able to produce 6-7 offtakes, Anasuria 4 offtakes, Kinabalu 4 -5 offtakes, PM3 CAA 4-5 offtakes. Total around 18-21 offtakes per year. In order to reduce the risk of volatility of Brent price, Hibiscus plans for co-loading with other partners. Hibiscus plans to reduce 1 offtake to around 100,000 barrels. So hibiscus can sell crude oil more frequently and even out the average realised selling price. For next few quarters, hibiscus might mention volume of sale in ‘barrel’, rather than in ‘offtake’.
3)PM3 CAA supplies natural gas to Malaysia and Vietnam everyday via pipelines. Hibiscus gets paid every month. The price of natural gas links to crude oil price, around USD 100/bbl equal to USD 6.7 /MMbtu, much lower than current UK Heren NBP Index Natural Gas price.
4) The conditions of Repsol assets are good. No need to add extra CAPEX such as maintenance of pipelines.
5) PM3 CAA license will expire by 2027. It is not difficult to extend the license, just keep spending reasonable CAPEX to maintain the asset in good condition. If hibiscus able to extend the license, this will help for further extra increment of 2P reserve.
6) UK is facing energy crisis. The UK government already invited the O & G companies ( including hibiscus) to their office, and asked them to accelerate their upstream projects in North Sea. The UK government will loosen the stringent of regulations. UK Hibiscus also received calls from banks, the bankers are willing to help the O & G companies now ( ? by supplying borrowings or issuing bonds). These will help hibiscus to convert 2C resource of Teal Weal and Marigold to 2P reserve by 2023, and might achieve first oil by 2024.
7) Project of converting 2C resource of North Sabah to 2P reserve also in progress, can be achieved in next 12 months
8) Hibiscus will not buy new assets in high oil price environment. But Dr Ken did mention that they might consider acquisition of special assets with special price in special circumstances even in an environment of high oil price. ( ?? SapuraOMV assets)
9) For malfunction of critical equipment in Anasuria from 2021, the problem will be solved by August 2022. Anasuria will be able to achieve normal production rate for 2QFY2023 (Oct-Dec 2022)
10) Mr Deepak Thakur, VP Economic and Business Planning, key person in valuation of Anasuria, North Sabah and Repsol assets acquisition, opined that with market cap of RM 2.3billions, current EV/EBITDA of hibiscus is around 3.5 only ( without adding Repsol assets) , undervalued if compared with other O&G companies. He also emphasized that as a value investor, the important metric in investing a stock is choosing a good management team :)
11) The government link funds start collecting hibiscus already
Latest expected additional EBITDA from Repsol by Maybank
1) Full Year production rate : 15,000 boe/day 2) Annual Production : 5.5 million boe ( 2.75 MMbbl Oil & Condensate + 2.75 MMboe of Gas) 3) Assumed average Brent Price for full year : USD 100/bbl 4) Expected Gas Price : USD 6.6/kscf or USD 6.6/MMbtu 5) Expected Gas Price : USD 40/boe 6) Weighted average realised price : USD 70/boe 7) Expected full calendar year revenue at average USD 100/bbl Brent : USD 385millions 8) Expected full calendar year EBITDA from newly acquired assets at assumed average USD 100/bbl Brent assuming 50% EBITDA margin : USD 192 millions
Free Cashflow from Repsol CY2021 : USD 78 millions
Acquisition price of Repsol : USD 212.5millions
Yes, by the end of Dec 2022, these Repsol assets are considered FREE !!
@twynstar Good recap. For a full 12 months the enlarged Hibiscus will produce and sell at least 8 million barrels of oil equivalents. Oil price should stay above USD80 for the next 3 years..... ..
After 3 years Oil price may drop but Hibiscus will increase their production from Marigold ( first oil expect in 2024). As long they can maintain their cost should be fine. Profit = (Production x Price) - Cost.
Yeah, Repsol asset provide a good mix of Natural Gas and Crude oil. Besides that, Natural Gas price seems to continue to rally with good justification as part of renewal energy. Kudos to Hibiscus prudent management.
Thank you twynstar for the summary, very pertinent. DragonG, yes when price come down, more oil to sell - good timing. For greenies - please read this: Thank you twynstar for the summary, very pertinent. DragonG, yes when price come down, more oil to sell - good timing. For greenies - please read this: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/european-environmentalists-have-made-energy-independence-impossible A proud and technical country - Germany, can make such mis-step on energy, sad really.
just sold my portion. the fact that the director just disposed off his shares near to a quarter end, means he knows something is going on in the company. anyways good luck and all the best
Director selling could be a warning bell. But you gotta ask, who is he? 1. is he involved in daily operation? This director is the son of late tan sri who is Dr. Mahatir's bagman in UK. He spends his time in UK not Malaysia. He has invested in Hibiscus since the beginning and still making loss. Hell i know why he is selling? Probably need to fund his 3rd or 4th mistresses??
whoa there is no need to bash the director in such manner when i am just merely expressing my opinion, you dont even know him. anyways its good to have friends working in hibiscs :)
daily drops few cent is reflective of the brent crude price drops below 100. will continue to plummet now US & its allies are dipping into oil reserves and China lockdown expected to prolong
hmm.... it's OK for Apple's and other products to raise prices every year but when it comes to commodities, prices should never rise cause it's having too much impact on people's daily lives.
Stock piles going to release is only 120 million bbl. Russia daily production is 10.5million bbl, so stock piles release is only equivalent to 12days of Russia production!!! Is it enough to cover the losses volume if Russia production take two weeks leave???
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Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-04-04 14:44 | Report Abuse
Great close to 1st quarter average prices of brent: Jan: $84bbl,Feb:$94bbl, Mar:$103bbl
With the new Repsol+ can't wait to see if the profits are per some of the calculations/ forecast here. Would be very interesting