Posted by twynstar > 2022-04-10 09:50 | Report Abuse

Estimation of EBITDA and net profit after repsol acquisition for 1 year

Presumption :
1) Daily oil net production of North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day
2) Daily oil and condensate net production of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day
3) Daily gas net production of repsol = 7,500boe/day
4) Total daily net production = 23,000boe/day
5) The price of natural gas of Repsol links to crude oil price, around USD 100/bbl equal to USD 6.7 /MMbtu
6) If Brent USD 100/bbl, gas price = USD 6.7/MMbtu = USD 38.85/boe
7) If Brent USD 90/bbl, gas price = USD 6.03/MMbtu = USD 34.97/boe
8) If Brent USD 80/bbl, gas price = USD 5.36/MMbtu = USD 31.08/boe
9) If Brent USD 70/bbl, gas price = USD 4.69/MMbtu = USD 27.20/boe
10) EBITDA margin = 50%
11) Net profit margin = 20%
12) USD to MYR conversion rate = RM 4.1

If Brent USD 100/bbl, gas price USD 38.85/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 100/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,197 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 100/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,122 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 38.85/boe x 4.1 =RM 436 million
4) Total revenue = RM 1,197 million + RM 1,122 million + RM 436 million =RM 2,755 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,755 million x 50% = RM 1,378 million
6) Total net profit = RM 2,755 million x 20% = RM 551 million


If Brent USD 90/bbl, gas price USD 34.97/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 90/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,077 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 90/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,010 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 34.97/boe x 4.1 =RM 392 million
4) Total revenue = RM 1,077 million + RM 1,010 million + RM 392 millions =RM 2,479 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,479 millions x 50% = RM 1,240 million
6) Total net profit = RM 2,479 millions x 20% = RM 496 million


If Brent USD 80/bbl, gas price USD 31.08/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 80/bbl x 4.1 =RM 958 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 80/bbl x 4.1 =RM 898 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 31.08/boe x 4.1 =RM 349 million
4) Total revenue = RM 958 millions + RM 898 millions + RM 349 millions =RM 2,205 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,205 millions x 50% = RM 1,103 million
6) Total net profit = RM 2,205 millions x 20% = RM 441 million


If Brent USD 70/bbl, gas price USD 27.20/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 70/bbl x 4.1 =RM 838 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 70/bbl x 4.1 =RM 786 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 27.20/boe x 4.1 =RM 305 million
4) Total revenue = RM 838 million + RM 786 million + RM 305 million =RM 1,929 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 1,929 million x 50% = RM 965 million
6) Total net profit = RM 1,929 million x 20% = RM 386 million

Posted by twynstar > 2022-04-10 09:57 | Report Abuse

How to valuate hibiscus as value investor:

1) EV / EBITDA method ( recommended by Mr. Deepak )
EV = Enterprise Value = Market cap + Total debts - cash

For 2QFY2022 ( end 31/12/2021), before Repsol acquisition
Closing price 31/12/21 = RM 0.815
Market cap = RM 0.815 x 2000 million of shares = RM 1,630 million
Debt = 0
Unrestricted cash = RM 552 million
EV = 1630 + 0 - 552 = RM 1,078 million
EBITDA 3Q FY2021 ( Jan - Mar 2021) = RM 122 million
EBITDA 4Q FY2021 ( Apr - Jun 2021) = RM 130 million
EBITDA 1Q FY2022 ( Jul - Sept 2021) = RM 124 million
EBITDA 2Q FY2022 ( Oct - Dec 2021) = RM 140 million
EBITDA for CY2021 ( Jan- Dec 2021) = 122+ 130+ 124+140 = RM 516 million
EV / EBITDA for CY2021 = 1078 / 516 = 2.09 ( UNDERVALUED)

Let’s presume hibiscus borrowed USD 80 million from Trafigura via Prepayment Facility and used all cash RM 552 to pay remaining USD123.65 million for Repsol acquisition on 24/01/2022
Current market price RM 1.20 = RM 2,400 market cap
Total debt = USD 80 million = RM 328 million
Cash = 0
EV = 2400+328-0 = RM 2,728 million
If Brent USD 100/bbl, EBITDA for CY2022 = RM 1,378 million
EV / EBITDA = 2728/1378 = 1.98 ( UNDERVALUED)

2) EV/ 2P reserves method
Current market price RM 1.20 = RM 2,400 market cap
EV = RM 2,728 million = USD 665 million ( Maybank estimated USD795.5m)
Latest 2P reserves = 77.3 million boe
EV/ 2P reserves = 665/77.3 = USD 8.6/boe ( UNDERVALUED, Maybank estimated USD 6.7/boe)
If compared with EnQuest = USD 12/ boe.
Range of EV/ 2P reserves for other medium E&P companies in Norway and UK = USD 13.6-31.1/boe

3) Price to Earning ( P/E) ratio
Current market price RM 1.20 = RM 2,400 market cap
If Brent USD 100/bbl, net profit for CY2022 = RM 551 million , PER = 4.36 ( UNDERVALUED)
If Brent USD 70/bbl, net profit for CY2022 = RM 386 million , PER = 6.22
If compared with other O&G companies in Malaysia with closing price on 08/04/2022 ( using i3investor data):
DNex = 7.61
Pchem = 11.22
PetGas = 16.91
Dialog = 28.37
Yinson = 13.95
Armada = 4.32
MISC = 18.55
Dayang = - 3.38 ( loss)
Serba , Sapura : no comment
KLSE : 14-16


4) Free cash flow method( quite difficult to estimate , might need 3QFY22 report)
Free cash flow = Operating cash flow - Capital expenditures ( CAPEX)
For FY2019,
Net cash generated from operating activities = RM 496 million
EBITDA = RM 549 million
For FY2020,
Net cash generated from operating activities = RM 122 million
EBITDA = RM 213 million
For FY2021,
Net cash generated from operating activities = RM 297 million
EBITDA = RM 309 million
So, it is safe to say that EBITDA is slightly above operating cash flow.
If Brent USD 100/bbl, estimated EBITDA for CY2022 = RM 1,378 million,
Estimated net cash generated from operating activities around RM 1,200 million

CAPEX for North Sabah + Anasuria + Repsol per year= ??RM 300 - 600 million
Major CAPEX in next 2-3 years : Teal West tie-back Project and Marigold Project
2C resource of Teal West : 4 million boe
2C resource of Marigold : 43.5 million boe
FYI, DNex, Ping Petroleum Ltd, would likely require at least between RM300 and RM400 million in capital expenditure (capex) to develop its newly-acquired Avalon oil field in the United Kingdom, with expected production between 5,000 and 6,000 barrels per day.

I estimate total CAPEX for both Teal West tie-back Project and Marigold Project around RM 1,000 million till RM 1,500 million. This CAPEX will be smaller if hibiscus reduce Marigold interest from 87.5% to 50%

Strategy :
1) If got another dip, will accumulate hibiscus at RM 1.00 ( previous target at RM 0.90). Will switch from other stock to hibiscus and increase hibiscus position till 50% of portfolio.
2) Keep till at least 2025-2026

Posted by VenFx > 2022-04-11 09:14 | Report Abuse

Thanks to twynstar
For the above working.

Posted by Newbie_123 > 2022-04-11 10:28 | Report Abuse

damn price collapse again

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-04-11 11:08 | Report Abuse

Next few weeks when QR result will out, everyone will rush in to get a slice.

Posted by OKU_2020 > 2022-04-11 11:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by derrtan > 2022-04-11 13:45 | Report Abuse

this week will reach 1.25

Posted by malpac63 > 2022-04-11 14:12 | Report Abuse

Again my query, the figures in EBITDA and not Profit After Tax. Last quarter, EBITDA was $140M and Profit After Tax $48M.

Posted by BeeNeutral > 2022-04-11 14:32 | Report Abuse

Nibbled a bit more at 1.19

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-04-11 15:26 | Report Abuse

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/highlight/2022/04/11/japan-eyes-malaysian-gas-in-face-of-russian-cutoff/

Posted by BeeNeutral > 2022-04-11 19:10 | Report Abuse

Institution banks who can see a bigger picture are forecasting oil price slightly above 100 for 2022 n 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/11/oil-markets-china-lockdown-oil-reserves.html

Posted by OKU_2020 > 2022-04-11 23:41 | Report Abuse

Crude Oil Markets Threatening Major Breakdown
By
FXEmpire
The crude oil markets have fallen again on Monday to threaten the uptrend line that has been so important this year.

Posted by derrtan > 2022-04-12 09:15 | Report Abuse

what is the impact the PP extension rejected?

Posted by BeeNeutral > 2022-04-12 09:54 | Report Abuse

Nibbled again at 1.19

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-04-12 10:11 | Report Abuse

@derrtan

Have to reapply from beginning. The hassle and paperwork only.

But I don't think need to have PP at this time due to strong crude oil prices which will generate strong cashflow.

The company applied it when crude oil was USD45 pbl, thus it makes sense to raise additional funds to support.

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-04-12 10:18 | Report Abuse

done paktua sold all balance share..
sell from 1.8-1.20..



tut tut
will be back again soon

Posted by derrtan > 2022-04-12 10:23 | Report Abuse

Thank you newbie8080

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-04-12 14:01 | Report Abuse

as always, @twynstar offers very detailed insights for the value investors out here.
sadly, too many punters who don't even know how to use excel on this forum and their only cue for buy & sales is daily moves in oil price. sad :(

Posted by kokchengkai > 2022-04-12 23:41 | Report Abuse

Mr OKU ,Run .... oil "collapse" again above usd 100 ..

Posted by Nepo > 2022-04-13 08:21 | Report Abuse

WTI Crude Futures Rebound Firmly
WTI crude futures jumped more than 7% to above $100 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering from a 4% loss in the previous session, on relief about demand in China after Shanghai eased some virus restrictions. Also, OPEC warned it would be nearly impossible to replace Russian oil lost by a possible ban from the EU, while downwardly revising both global output and demand forecasts for this year. The EU is reportedly drafting proposals for an oil embargo on Russia although there was no agreement to ban Russian crude. Finally, industry figures estimated a 7.8 million barrel injection into US crude inventories last week, the most since the first week of May 2021.
3 hours ago

Posted by paktua73 > 2022-04-13 09:19 | Report Abuse

morning..
let AI do the job..

up up on the way..



tut tut
no more share on hand ready
waaa waaa

Posted by newbie8080 > 2022-04-13 09:28 | Report Abuse

@paktua73

Why jual so cepat?

Posted by birdparadise > 2022-04-13 09:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by TheTruthHurt > 2022-04-13 11:17 | Report Abuse

Diamond hands.

Posted by koey > 2022-04-13 12:04 | Report Abuse

flower opening

Posted by izoklse > 2022-04-13 12:12 | Report Abuse

Hard to go up much as no big investment arm buying or become major shareholder. That is why share price mcm tu jer tak gerak2 sgt. Bunga tak mekar dengan sempurna.

Posted by Yezzy99108 > 2022-04-13 13:36 | Report Abuse

HIB marginal 1-2 cents daily movement since last few trading days. really need big fund to help push

Posted by izoklse > 2022-04-13 15:07 | Report Abuse

From last video conference with XIFU, Dr ken and Hibiscus management also not giving a good explanation on this issue. Lack of institutional and major fund interest in Hibiscus share need to be address by Hibiscus Management so that we can see its true value. Without any major interest from Investor, current shareholder will also feel the pain.

Posted by izoklse > 2022-04-13 18:30 | Report Abuse

Hibiscus explores Singapore SPAC listing, sources say

Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd is considering listing a special purpose acquisition company in Singapore that could raise as much as S$200 million (RM620.38 million), according to people familiar with the matter.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hibiscus-explores-singapore-spac-listing-sources-say

Posted by imvu > 2022-04-14 01:08 | Report Abuse

komoditi rebound , minyak rebound

Posted by hoot9eonly > 2022-04-14 01:13 | Report Abuse

Hibiscus going open flower soon.

Posted by hoot9eonly > 2022-04-14 01:13 | Report Abuse

Spring is coming. Time for Highbicus

Posted by hoot9eonly > 2022-04-14 01:13 | Report Abuse

hahaha

Posted by kahhoeng > 2022-04-14 09:19 | Report Abuse

When's my 1.50? Sigh!

Posted by brucechun > 2022-04-14 09:31 | Report Abuse

why suspended ?

Posted by Eddie85 > 2022-04-14 09:40 | Report Abuse

suspended?

Posted by DragonG > 2022-04-14 09:45 | Report Abuse

Suspended at 9:21 am

Posted by chickenriceseller > 2022-04-14 09:57 | Report Abuse

joker bursa simply suspend

Posted by DragonG > 2022-04-14 09:59 | Report Abuse

HIBISCS - Trading Halt and Resumption of Trading
HIBISCS - Trading Halt and Resumption of Trading
ILC-14042022-00004
Kindly be advised that trading in HIBISCS' securities has been halted with
effect from 9.22 a.m., Thursday, 14 April 2022. Accordingly, trading in
structured warrants relating to HIBISCS has also been halted at the same time.
Trading in the above securities will resume with effect from 10.22 a.m.,
Thursday, 14 April 2022. Your attention is drawn to the Company's
announcement dated 14 April 2022.

Posted by derrtan > 2022-04-14 10:01 | Report Abuse

clarification on the listing things but not sure what is the implication

Posted by zhangzuode > 2022-04-14 10:05 | Report Abuse

derrtan, what kind of implication you are thinking about?

Posted by kakiminyak > 2022-04-14 10:06 | Report Abuse

No such thing as simply suspend lah. Sure got something one. Now we wait in suspense loh. Going for Singapore listing?

Posted by DragonG > 2022-04-14 10:11 | Report Abuse

If I recall correctly it is a normal practice for Hibiscus to halt trading for any announcement. This time suspend for 1 hour only due to announcement to clarify Bloomberg News yesterday (The SPAC listing at Singapore stock Exchange).
I believe it is a good corporate governance in their part.

Posted by DragonG > 2022-04-14 10:14 | Report Abuse

This is the company announcement:
HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD ("Hibiscus Petroleum" or "Company")
- Clarification In Relation to the Bloomberg News Article of 13 April 2022

Posted by birdparadise > 2022-04-14 10:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kakiminyak > 2022-04-14 10:17 | Report Abuse

Better corporate governance is to beware of news spinsters trying to offer exciting breaking news revealing some details with some spices added to make interesting flavor. Just waste peoples time and money.

Posted by KingKong_Doll > 2022-04-14 10:19 | Report Abuse

Want Rm1.50? Go promote to Mr.K and Mr. O. When the dynamic duo KO promote, sure it reach 1.50....LOL

Posted by VTrade > 2022-04-14 10:25 | Report Abuse

Good job clarify is best

Posted by Newbie_123 > 2022-04-14 15:48 | Report Abuse

this really sad. everytime surge 2 - 3 cents will be pull down by sellers.
This is so typical HIB, any spike is selling time

Posted by hoot9eonly > 2022-04-15 10:27 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/977957/%E5%88%B0%E6%96%B0%E5%8A%A0%E5%9D%A1spac%E4%B8%8A%E5%B8%82-%E5%A4%A7%E7%BA%A2%E8%8A%B1%E7%9F%B3%E6%B2%B9-%E6%B2%A1%E8%BF%99%E5%9B%9E%E4%BA%8B