Estimation of EBITDA and net profit after repsol acquisition for 1 year
Presumption : 1) Daily oil net production of North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day 2) Daily oil and condensate net production of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day 3) Daily gas net production of repsol = 7,500boe/day 4) Total daily net production = 23,000boe/day 5) The price of natural gas of Repsol links to crude oil price, around USD 100/bbl equal to USD 6.7 /MMbtu 6) If Brent USD 100/bbl, gas price = USD 6.7/MMbtu = USD 38.85/boe 7) If Brent USD 90/bbl, gas price = USD 6.03/MMbtu = USD 34.97/boe 8) If Brent USD 80/bbl, gas price = USD 5.36/MMbtu = USD 31.08/boe 9) If Brent USD 70/bbl, gas price = USD 4.69/MMbtu = USD 27.20/boe 10) EBITDA margin = 50% 11) Net profit margin = 20% 12) USD to MYR conversion rate = RM 4.1
If Brent USD 100/bbl, gas price USD 38.85/boe 1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 100/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,197 million 2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 100/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,122 million 3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 38.85/boe x 4.1 =RM 436 million 4) Total revenue = RM 1,197 million + RM 1,122 million + RM 436 million =RM 2,755 million 5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,755 million x 50% = RM 1,378 million 6) Total net profit = RM 2,755 million x 20% = RM 551 million
If Brent USD 90/bbl, gas price USD 34.97/boe 1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 90/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,077 million 2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 90/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,010 million 3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 34.97/boe x 4.1 =RM 392 million 4) Total revenue = RM 1,077 million + RM 1,010 million + RM 392 millions =RM 2,479 million 5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,479 millions x 50% = RM 1,240 million 6) Total net profit = RM 2,479 millions x 20% = RM 496 million
If Brent USD 80/bbl, gas price USD 31.08/boe 1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 80/bbl x 4.1 =RM 958 million 2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 80/bbl x 4.1 =RM 898 million 3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 31.08/boe x 4.1 =RM 349 million 4) Total revenue = RM 958 millions + RM 898 millions + RM 349 millions =RM 2,205 million 5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,205 millions x 50% = RM 1,103 million 6) Total net profit = RM 2,205 millions x 20% = RM 441 million
If Brent USD 70/bbl, gas price USD 27.20/boe 1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 70/bbl x 4.1 =RM 838 million 2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 70/bbl x 4.1 =RM 786 million 3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 27.20/boe x 4.1 =RM 305 million 4) Total revenue = RM 838 million + RM 786 million + RM 305 million =RM 1,929 million 5) Total EBITDA = RM 1,929 million x 50% = RM 965 million 6) Total net profit = RM 1,929 million x 20% = RM 386 million
1) EV / EBITDA method ( recommended by Mr. Deepak ) EV = Enterprise Value = Market cap + Total debts - cash
For 2QFY2022 ( end 31/12/2021), before Repsol acquisition Closing price 31/12/21 = RM 0.815 Market cap = RM 0.815 x 2000 million of shares = RM 1,630 million Debt = 0 Unrestricted cash = RM 552 million EV = 1630 + 0 - 552 = RM 1,078 million EBITDA 3Q FY2021 ( Jan - Mar 2021) = RM 122 million EBITDA 4Q FY2021 ( Apr - Jun 2021) = RM 130 million EBITDA 1Q FY2022 ( Jul - Sept 2021) = RM 124 million EBITDA 2Q FY2022 ( Oct - Dec 2021) = RM 140 million EBITDA for CY2021 ( Jan- Dec 2021) = 122+ 130+ 124+140 = RM 516 million EV / EBITDA for CY2021 = 1078 / 516 = 2.09 ( UNDERVALUED)
Let’s presume hibiscus borrowed USD 80 million from Trafigura via Prepayment Facility and used all cash RM 552 to pay remaining USD123.65 million for Repsol acquisition on 24/01/2022 Current market price RM 1.20 = RM 2,400 market cap Total debt = USD 80 million = RM 328 million Cash = 0 EV = 2400+328-0 = RM 2,728 million If Brent USD 100/bbl, EBITDA for CY2022 = RM 1,378 million EV / EBITDA = 2728/1378 = 1.98 ( UNDERVALUED)
2) EV/ 2P reserves method Current market price RM 1.20 = RM 2,400 market cap EV = RM 2,728 million = USD 665 million ( Maybank estimated USD795.5m) Latest 2P reserves = 77.3 million boe EV/ 2P reserves = 665/77.3 = USD 8.6/boe ( UNDERVALUED, Maybank estimated USD 6.7/boe) If compared with EnQuest = USD 12/ boe. Range of EV/ 2P reserves for other medium E&P companies in Norway and UK = USD 13.6-31.1/boe
3) Price to Earning ( P/E) ratio Current market price RM 1.20 = RM 2,400 market cap If Brent USD 100/bbl, net profit for CY2022 = RM 551 million , PER = 4.36 ( UNDERVALUED) If Brent USD 70/bbl, net profit for CY2022 = RM 386 million , PER = 6.22 If compared with other O&G companies in Malaysia with closing price on 08/04/2022 ( using i3investor data): DNex = 7.61 Pchem = 11.22 PetGas = 16.91 Dialog = 28.37 Yinson = 13.95 Armada = 4.32 MISC = 18.55 Dayang = - 3.38 ( loss) Serba , Sapura : no comment KLSE : 14-16
4) Free cash flow method( quite difficult to estimate , might need 3QFY22 report) Free cash flow = Operating cash flow - Capital expenditures ( CAPEX) For FY2019, Net cash generated from operating activities = RM 496 million EBITDA = RM 549 million For FY2020, Net cash generated from operating activities = RM 122 million EBITDA = RM 213 million For FY2021, Net cash generated from operating activities = RM 297 million EBITDA = RM 309 million So, it is safe to say that EBITDA is slightly above operating cash flow. If Brent USD 100/bbl, estimated EBITDA for CY2022 = RM 1,378 million, Estimated net cash generated from operating activities around RM 1,200 million
CAPEX for North Sabah + Anasuria + Repsol per year= ??RM 300 - 600 million Major CAPEX in next 2-3 years : Teal West tie-back Project and Marigold Project 2C resource of Teal West : 4 million boe 2C resource of Marigold : 43.5 million boe FYI, DNex, Ping Petroleum Ltd, would likely require at least between RM300 and RM400 million in capital expenditure (capex) to develop its newly-acquired Avalon oil field in the United Kingdom, with expected production between 5,000 and 6,000 barrels per day.
I estimate total CAPEX for both Teal West tie-back Project and Marigold Project around RM 1,000 million till RM 1,500 million. This CAPEX will be smaller if hibiscus reduce Marigold interest from 87.5% to 50%
Strategy : 1) If got another dip, will accumulate hibiscus at RM 1.00 ( previous target at RM 0.90). Will switch from other stock to hibiscus and increase hibiscus position till 50% of portfolio. 2) Keep till at least 2025-2026
Crude Oil Markets Threatening Major Breakdown By FXEmpire The crude oil markets have fallen again on Monday to threaten the uptrend line that has been so important this year.
as always, @twynstar offers very detailed insights for the value investors out here. sadly, too many punters who don't even know how to use excel on this forum and their only cue for buy & sales is daily moves in oil price. sad :(
WTI Crude Futures Rebound Firmly WTI crude futures jumped more than 7% to above $100 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering from a 4% loss in the previous session, on relief about demand in China after Shanghai eased some virus restrictions. Also, OPEC warned it would be nearly impossible to replace Russian oil lost by a possible ban from the EU, while downwardly revising both global output and demand forecasts for this year. The EU is reportedly drafting proposals for an oil embargo on Russia although there was no agreement to ban Russian crude. Finally, industry figures estimated a 7.8 million barrel injection into US crude inventories last week, the most since the first week of May 2021. 3 hours ago
Hard to go up much as no big investment arm buying or become major shareholder. That is why share price mcm tu jer tak gerak2 sgt. Bunga tak mekar dengan sempurna.
From last video conference with XIFU, Dr ken and Hibiscus management also not giving a good explanation on this issue. Lack of institutional and major fund interest in Hibiscus share need to be address by Hibiscus Management so that we can see its true value. Without any major interest from Investor, current shareholder will also feel the pain.
Hibiscus explores Singapore SPAC listing, sources say
Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd is considering listing a special purpose acquisition company in Singapore that could raise as much as S$200 million (RM620.38 million), according to people familiar with the matter.
HIBISCS - Trading Halt and Resumption of Trading HIBISCS - Trading Halt and Resumption of Trading ILC-14042022-00004 Kindly be advised that trading in HIBISCS' securities has been halted with effect from 9.22 a.m., Thursday, 14 April 2022. Accordingly, trading in structured warrants relating to HIBISCS has also been halted at the same time. Trading in the above securities will resume with effect from 10.22 a.m., Thursday, 14 April 2022. Your attention is drawn to the Company's announcement dated 14 April 2022.
If I recall correctly it is a normal practice for Hibiscus to halt trading for any announcement. This time suspend for 1 hour only due to announcement to clarify Bloomberg News yesterday (The SPAC listing at Singapore stock Exchange). I believe it is a good corporate governance in their part.
This is the company announcement: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD ("Hibiscus Petroleum" or "Company") - Clarification In Relation to the Bloomberg News Article of 13 April 2022
Better corporate governance is to beware of news spinsters trying to offer exciting breaking news revealing some details with some spices added to make interesting flavor. Just waste peoples time and money.
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Posted by twynstar > 2022-04-10 09:50 | Report Abuse
Estimation of EBITDA and net profit after repsol acquisition for 1 year
Presumption :
1) Daily oil net production of North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day
2) Daily oil and condensate net production of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day
3) Daily gas net production of repsol = 7,500boe/day
4) Total daily net production = 23,000boe/day
5) The price of natural gas of Repsol links to crude oil price, around USD 100/bbl equal to USD 6.7 /MMbtu
6) If Brent USD 100/bbl, gas price = USD 6.7/MMbtu = USD 38.85/boe
7) If Brent USD 90/bbl, gas price = USD 6.03/MMbtu = USD 34.97/boe
8) If Brent USD 80/bbl, gas price = USD 5.36/MMbtu = USD 31.08/boe
9) If Brent USD 70/bbl, gas price = USD 4.69/MMbtu = USD 27.20/boe
10) EBITDA margin = 50%
11) Net profit margin = 20%
12) USD to MYR conversion rate = RM 4.1
If Brent USD 100/bbl, gas price USD 38.85/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 100/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,197 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 100/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,122 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 38.85/boe x 4.1 =RM 436 million
4) Total revenue = RM 1,197 million + RM 1,122 million + RM 436 million =RM 2,755 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,755 million x 50% = RM 1,378 million
6) Total net profit = RM 2,755 million x 20% = RM 551 million
If Brent USD 90/bbl, gas price USD 34.97/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 90/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,077 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 90/bbl x 4.1 =RM 1,010 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 34.97/boe x 4.1 =RM 392 million
4) Total revenue = RM 1,077 million + RM 1,010 million + RM 392 millions =RM 2,479 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,479 millions x 50% = RM 1,240 million
6) Total net profit = RM 2,479 millions x 20% = RM 496 million
If Brent USD 80/bbl, gas price USD 31.08/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 80/bbl x 4.1 =RM 958 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 80/bbl x 4.1 =RM 898 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 31.08/boe x 4.1 =RM 349 million
4) Total revenue = RM 958 millions + RM 898 millions + RM 349 millions =RM 2,205 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 2,205 millions x 50% = RM 1,103 million
6) Total net profit = RM 2,205 millions x 20% = RM 441 million
If Brent USD 70/bbl, gas price USD 27.20/boe
1)Revenue oil North Sabah + Anasuria = 8,000 bbl/day x 365 x USD 70/bbl x 4.1 =RM 838 million
2) Revenue oil and condensate of repsol = 7,500 bbl/day x 365 x USD 70/bbl x 4.1 =RM 786 million
3) Revenue gas of repsol = 7,500 boe/day x 365 x USD 27.20/boe x 4.1 =RM 305 million
4) Total revenue = RM 838 million + RM 786 million + RM 305 million =RM 1,929 million
5) Total EBITDA = RM 1,929 million x 50% = RM 965 million
6) Total net profit = RM 1,929 million x 20% = RM 386 million