With the submission for Bank Negara Approval on the disposal on the disposal of NPI Generali to Generali Asia NV on 51% stake, the prospect book in profit will be considered huge in near term. This also will unlock the intrinsic value of the Group which is similar to MMC corp but at a bigger scale if take into account of properties and / or investment of the group. This is well above the investment guru can imagine in term of prospect return in near term
Congratulations to those who managed to pick up some at low price yesterday. Hold tight to what you owned. I think more excitement is coming in 3 stages over next 3 - 6 months. Don't be frightened by the mild profit taking by the weak holders which is normal to happen along the way . Don't be taken advantage by ''insider' who are waiting to collect your share. For those who can hold until this ''fruit' is ripen will enjoy the sweet reward.
@chkhooju, if you buy and hold for at least 6 months it is still value buy. Buy the dips . To trade for overnight profit subject to short term volatility and your timing. This has been my stand all along . By tomorrow, I will be happy to tell you why the value in this stock is indeed very deep.
@xuxu, may be you should sell all now and invest in other counter that yourself is absolutely convinced.. Nobody is guaranteeing you profit in this share . Just a friendly comment . No offense please. Hehe
@Xuxu,. Sorry that I mis-read you . From your posts , it gave me the impression that your investment decision is very much guided by TA or Charts. We all know that TA/charts can turn very quickly by manipulator or sharks to misled you especially for rather illiquid and low free float stock like MPHB cap. Whereas, manipulator or sharks can not change the fundamentals of the company. Happy investing..
The share price has yet to fully price in the insurance sales at this stage. Some investors may still be skeptical about the authority's finally approving the sales. My view is it will get thru this time . The government is very 'hungry' for arresting the declining FDI especially amid current stressful state of economy of Malaysia. The timing and the whole package jointly put in place by Generali, AXA, Affin.and MPHB are very good. You can read in the news how proud is our PM highlighting the stake sales of Sunway healthcare to GIC Spore FDI and foreign confidence in our economy.
I remember the last sales of 49% to Generali was approved by BNM about 2-3 months after submission. I suspect the authority would not drag it longer this time as Malaysia and the PN government in dire need to shore up FDI and foreign capital inflow (so that PM, FM and Trade Ministers can boost about FDI and foreign investor's confidence) Hahaha.., Just my view for sharing.
I promise @chkhooju yesterday to share more insights into this deep value stock. I shall break it into 3 or 4 parts covering valuation, shareholding structure, Management's attitude and Corporate excercise possibilities. I must reiterate again that my objective is purely to disseminate what I know and what I think and to promote healthy exchanges of information for the benefit of minority shareholders. You are totally responsible for how you will make use of these information.
Part 1 : Valuation (1). My take for the valuation of the ongoing 51% sales of the insurance unit is about $550 mil . (2) $550 mil price tag is based on the 100% valuation for MPI of $735 mil established when the 49% was sold to Generali in 2015. The 49% sold in 2015 was for $360mil (based on 2.45x book value as at 31/12/2013) which I presumed is the basis for the remaining 51% = $375 mil, (3). We have to add MPHB's portion of NPAT retained in MPI Generali (the JV) from 2015 to 2020 amounting to $175 mil. (4). Hence total price tag is $375 +175 = $550 mil. (2) + (3). (5) The total cost of investment in the insurance unit (100%)in the book was $47.1 mil . This was reported in the EGM circular in 2015. The proportionate cost carrying in the book for 51% is 51%x $47.1 mil = $24 mil. (6) Nett gain after disposal shall be 550-24 = $526 mil or 74 sen per MPHB share. (7) NA of the company will increase from $2.60 to $3.34 (2.60+0.74). upon completion of the disposal. ……Part 1 to be continued…
Part 1 continuation.. (8) of the projected NA of $3.34 (point 7), $1.80 to $2.00 shall be in cash + securities investment (liquid asset). (9) projected NA does not considered the realisable market value of all properties which are at extremely low book value now . Potential RNAV of $7 per share is not a fallacy .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
xuxu
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Posted by xuxu > 2021-06-22 15:19 | Report Abuse
be patient, now is the ikan bilis selling and big boy buying