Posted by aliyusof > 2021-06-24 12:21 | Report Abuse

Endgame....we are not born yesterday, being involved in stock trading since 1979... we know how to read company accounts and caveat emptor. No need your short one or two liners comments.

Posted by aliyusof > 2021-06-24 12:29 | Report Abuse

My average cost is below 1.2 accumulated since Feb 2021 and will still hold tight.

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-06-24 12:30 | Report Abuse

@john i agree with u. .its stock already dry liao no so much holfing with retailers

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-06-24 12:30 | Report Abuse

Endgame, you can say what you like. At the end of the day the most important thing is value. MPHBCap is most undervalued with high NTA and over 300 million ringgit of cash reserve. I for one, will continue to buy on dips.

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-06-24 12:30 | Report Abuse

And its stock still undervalue

Posted by aliyusof > 2021-06-24 12:45 | Report Abuse

As at 31 March 2022, cash 464m '& investment securities 638m, almost zero borrowing. Excluding all other undervalued assets like properties. Share capital 715m units only.

Posted by aliyusof > 2021-06-24 12:47 | Report Abuse

31 March 2021

Posted by Solomon7 > 2021-06-24 22:35 | Report Abuse

Tempting at this level.

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-06-25 00:01 | Report Abuse

Johnzhang, thanks for your analysis.

Is MPI Generali a separate entity by itself? If not, won't the receivables and securities investment be sold as well thereby lowering the NTA (2.6 - x + 0.74).

The latest annual report stated that revaluation of all the properties were quite recent. Is there any specific reason for the inclination to think that they are severely undervalued (the Pengerang land at about RM0.8+ psf does appear to be undervalued)?

There are many companies that are trading below NTA (e.g. MMC, Insas, etc). Is there any impetus for the major shareholder of MPHB to unlock value at this juncture?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-25 09:01 | Report Abuse

@PSAi3alert, you are probably a financial accountant to rightly point out that the assets and liability of MPI Generali will be sold all together. MPI Generali is a 51% subsidiary of MPHB capital Holdings which in turn 100% owned by MPHB capital Bhd
Per MPHB'S 2020 annual report non controlling interest in MPI Generali was $329mil (ie for 49%) . Therefore, them 51% valued $342 mil is already consolidated in MPHB capital Bhd's group balance sheet (equal to 48 sen per share). The other 49% is reflected in Non- controlling interest in the Balance sheet.
The revised projected NA shall righly be $2.60 - 0.48+0.74= $2.86.
Cashflow for MPHB will improve by $0.74 per share arising from the disposal , not the NA. I apologise for the oversight (and I am still learning!)

Revaluation on property since listing is not evidenced at all. Book value of the properties have not changed since listing apart from some disposal and forced acquisition. Bear in mind that these properties are inherited from the old Multi Purpose Bhd before demerger.

Just to quote a few examples to support my assumption for land value:
5 acres Land at Jalan imbi at $1,000 to $1,100 psf is well below realisable value. In recent years , many land transaction in KL centre were at around $3,000 psf .
12.04 acres at tasik Ampang (flamingo hotel ) value at 25mil total or at $47 psf is well below market value . It had surfaced in the media some 5-6 years ago that Pavilion boss was contemplating the acquisition for about $500 mil for this 12.04 acres + the adjoining 2.71 acres of the commercial complex also owned by MPHB.
1,726 acre of pengarang next to Rapid , a huge and robust petrochemical park , at 78 sen psf is absurd . My friends who are traders in petrochemical product acquired 10 acres land in the same vacinity paid $25 psf without infrastructure 4 years ago. The pengarang lands , 971 acres is freehold and 731 acres lease expiring in year 2910 ( as good as freehold).
Flamingo hotel by the beach , a 289 rooms , 4 star hotel in Penang, with book value at $33 mil. It can easily fetch $150-180 mi if put on the market.

Interestingly , in 2013, MPHB sold a piece of land at balik Pulau, Penang for $226 millions while book value was merely $32 mil. This information is in Bursa disclosure.

Hope all the information I share is helpful to anyone looking at this share, of course with error and omission which is not deliberately done to misled investors.

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-06-25 10:59 | Report Abuse

I'll definitely buy more MPHBCap and MNRB shares whenever opportunity arises. Value for money

Posted by PSAi3alert > 2021-06-25 13:21 | Report Abuse

Johnzhang, many thanks for your reply. Having taken a couple of accounting courses during business school decades ago hardly qualify me as an accountant.

I was referring to the 'Date of updated valuation' in pages 178 and 179 of the latest annual report:
https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=207046&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS

The true value might well be RM5/share but closing the gap will need clear vision by TS Surin and Ms Ivevei post sale of MPI Generali. Good points include reasonable executive compensation and less than 51% majority ownership.

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-06-25 22:06 | Report Abuse

Happy holidays

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-06-26 00:52 | Report Abuse

My view about MPHBCAP

We are close to the final stage of harvesting our investment in MPHBCAP. Should hold tight with our stock in hand

Once approval granted by BNM ( which I believe the probability of approval will be high ) , analysts will initiate coverage and market speculation will kick in. Stock price will rise and volatility will increases.

I will look at selling possibility only above RM2.50 base on the facts that

1. If special dividend declare , it will be RM1 ( need to confirm the retain earning once the deal close ) The stock price will soar to around RM3

2. If taking private at RM3 , stock price will soar to RN2.80 as the approval process will take 6 months to a year to complete until cash in hand. If has better investment opportunity , will exit at RM2.80.

In summary , will hold on until RM2.50. Might accumulate more at 1.50 depending on progress , disposal of other stocks and dividend received.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-26 11:41 | Report Abuse

Part 2 : shareholdings structure
Below analysis is based on 30 largest shareholders as at 29 March 2021 appears in 2020 Annual Report. I am trying to group the 30 largest shareholders into 7 Groups (A to G) as below;

Group A: SU thru his vehicle Casi and mwe;
Shareholder No 1,4,7 = 261.75 mil share (36.61%)

Group B : The Thai Uppaputthangkuls family
No 6, 19,26 = 31.83 mil share (4.45%)
Very likely this Group is family members of SU.

Group C : Director, senior executive and person/companies holding interest in MPHB, mwe and Magnum.
No 5,8,15,16,18,24,28 =73.98 mil share (10.35%)

Group D : Foreign Nonimee Exempt Account
No 2,3,12,13 =95.85 mil share (13.4%)
These are Anonymous which is usually not willing to disclose they interest due to sensitivity of the information eg public servants, politicians , etc

Group E : Foreign Corporate Shareholders
No 10, 14 = 22.94 mil share (3.21%)

Group F institutional funds
No 17,29,30 = 11.78 mil share (1.65%)

Group G : private individual and corporate
No 9,11,20,21,22,23,25,27 = 48.50 mil share (6.8%)

Group H : minorities not in the top 30 list
Total 168.37 mil share (23.5%)

Analysis :
1. I make assumption on the high end basis , the Friendly Shareholders to SU are Group B,C,D,E = 31.41% The proportion is definitely higher as part of Group H ( non top 30) are also Friendly parties.

2,. SU + Friendly Parties > 68.02% !!! (36.61+ 31.41)

3.Private and independent Shareholders
Group F,G =8.45%
Part of Group H ( non top 30) are private and independent Shareholders too.
This category will increase to about 20% is we assume half of group H are independent.

4. Foreign ownership in this company is very very high :
Group A,B, D, E and part of group F and H too.

Part 2 to be continued..,,,,

Pls correct me if anyone knows my assumption and analysis is inaccurate. You input is very helpful to provide the investing public accurate information for investment decisions.

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-06-26 12:05 | Report Abuse

So clear. Thanks @john

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-26 16:24 | Report Abuse

Part 2 continues..,
5. Group A to G are long term investors and their stake hardly changed in the past few years. I prone to think that even most Group H investors are not ready to give up at current price .

6. I am not concerned for the perceived high influence or 'control' SU has (refer point 2). Investors in group C, D,E , although deemed friendly to SU, will look after their own interests first and want a fair deal too in event of privatization.

7. There should be enough dissenting shareholders to block unfair privatization offer .

Lastly, The ultimate shareholders in MPHB may be more complex than what it appear in the annual report due to the politically linked transaction in the company's history in the late 1990 and early 2000.

That's all I can say. Please make your own judgement . Kindly add your thoughts for sharing.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-26 16:27 | Report Abuse

In Part 3 , I will share my thoughts on Management Attitude, business appetite and company's direction post MPI Generali disposal.

Posted by aliyusof > 2021-06-26 18:13 | Report Abuse

Tq..look forward to it

Posted by AlfI3 > 2021-06-26 23:53 | Report Abuse

Hi John, after reading ur findings, it made me build on more confidence on my investmn into this ctr that classified as hidden gem. Tqsm

Posted by Endgame > 2021-06-27 17:56 | Report Abuse

I will wait at 1.40 to re-enter, a lot ppl disappointed with such good news but it give back the raise in just 2 days. Next week will see a lot change hand from disappointed hand...
Cheap sales coming next week...

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-06-28 11:03 | Report Abuse

All i buy hahhahha

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-06-28 11:03 | Report Abuse

Next target wait 1.38

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-06-28 11:08 | Report Abuse

1.20 will be even better.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-28 12:37 | Report Abuse

@Endgame, you cannot even read between the lines what chkhooju means ! You are naive!

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-06-28 12:54 | Report Abuse

Hahaha....

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-28 17:11 | Report Abuse

@Endgame, why do you deleted so many of your posting today ?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-29 12:02 | Report Abuse

Part 3: Mgt attitude, business appetite and company's direction post insurance sales .
In this part , the material is more judgemental than factual. Readers must exercise own judgement which shall guide you in your investment decision. It is purely my own judgement to share , not intended to lure you into buying this stock.

1. As at 31/12/2020, total Cash+ Investment is $1.92 bil! ($1.39 bil of investment securities classified non-current as they are intended for holding 12 mths or longer as mgt explained). The cash and investment securities excluding those belonging to insurance unit is est $880 mil. Upon completion of the insurance sales, it will swell from $880 mil to $1.43 bil nett of debt or $2 per share !

2. The company which hold >51% of insurance is classified as Financial holding company (FHC). Under the financial services act 2013, FHC is only allowed to engage in financial services business and hence MPHB requires BNM'S approval for venturing into non financial services business. Other restriction include capital adequacy to support the insurance business. Options available to MPHB is to meet BNM's requirements by divesting up to 51% ( hence no more FHC status) and beef up capital in the insurance unit to meet the regulations.

3. Instead, the company chose to divest 100% despite that insurance unit is the core revenue/profit contrbutor . The company is probably reluctant to inject substantially more capital into the insurance business.

4. Since listing in 2013, the only decision the Mgt and BOD did were CASH Monetization of assets giving rise to est $1.43 bil cash ( refer to point 1 ). Part of the cash realized is park in investment securities which are primarily bond, money market fund etc . NO new venture or expansion of existing business at all throughout the last 8 years , I presumed this is due on the restriction in point 2.

5. In all the AGM, when Mgt is asked by shareholders about the business plan and strategy for the valuable landbank, the reply has been consistently about capital preservation and monetization of the landbank/properties at the right price .

6. The existing property development business is JV with BRDB where the company contribute small parcel of land at Rawang and Gombak and in return received 22% GDV. Such business is going at very slow pace and going nowhere. There hospitality business thru flamingo is half death with no decision to upgrade or rejuvenation.

7. Post insurance disposal, is MPHB emerging as property developer ? I don't think so for reasons in point 6 and especially amid the very challenging property market for many years to come.

8. It appear to me that the BOD (of course under instruction from controlling shareholder) has no appetite to take on new business venture or to capitalize existing business. As such , post insurance sales , the company will be lack of core business or under PN17 (?) under the listing rules.

9. Privatisation seem imminent to me and controlling shareholders has all the reasons ( or excuses ) to do it ...

Part 3 to be continued..,,,

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-29 15:41 | Report Abuse

Part 3 continues....

I would like to draw parallels between the 2 companies owned by SU in almost the same stake and have many similarities in shareholding structure. Ie MWE and MPHB. The financial comparison is based on MWE’s financial statement nearest to privatisation excercise . In the case of MPHB, it is based on projection after insurance sales.

1. SU who hold about 32.6% offered to privatise MWE by SCR for $1.75 in Mar 2018. Entitled shareholders owned 158.1 mil share and repayment amount to $277mil.

2. No share issued
MWE 233.2 mil
MPHB 715 mil

3. NA per share
MWE.$2.53
MPHB $2.90-3.00 ( as I said earlier based on projection after insurance sales
Note ; NA of MWE included the $256 mil investment in WCE (reported in BS as investment in associate) or $1.10 per share. Coincidentally, WCE price plunged shortly after MWE's privatisation offer made and lost about $0.23 per mwe share . Thus , NA of MWE before SRC closing was around $2.30 only

4.cash + investment securities
MWE $247 mil or $1.06 per share
MPHB $1,430 mil or $2.00! Per share
MPHB has double amount of cash and cash equivalents per share which is very superior.

5. Total financial liability ( payable + borrowing)
Mwe $204 mil , $0.87 per share
MPHB negligible

6. Highest share price traded
MWE around $2.00
MPHB around $2.70

7. SCR offer price over NBV
MWE $1.75/2.53 = 70%
Or. 76 % (1.75/2.30) if we account for mark to market loss in WCE
Note : NA of MWE is poorer quality than MPHB.

MPHB , if based on 70% NBV , SCR price =$2.00. - 2.10
MPHB. If based on 85 % NBV. SCR price is $2.50 -2.60
MPHB , if based on 100% NBV,SCR price is $2.90 - 3.00
MPHB certainly deserve much higher % due to 2/3 of NA in cash and cash equivalent and investment properties are of superior quality and deeply undervalued.

8. Reason for privatisation
MWE: following the disposal of the core and traditional garment/textile unit and the paging or lighting unit (?) , the remaining business of MWE was much smaller scale and prospect of the continuing business was challenging. The bulk of investment in WCE (initial at $1.35 per wce share) gave negative return over prolonged period and requiring heavy capital injection . (After MWE's SCR,. WCE called for heavy RI and MWE fully subscribed its portion. Share price of WCE today is still over 50% below MWE's cost of investment)

MPHB : following the disposal of the insurance unit which is the core business, the rest of the continuing business likewise very very small and challenging and loss making. As the operating environment is challenging for any new investment, privatisation is the best option (in the eye of controlling shareholder).

Posted by Endgame > 2021-06-29 16:05 | Report Abuse

In short just hoot... tp 10

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-06-29 19:35 | Report Abuse

Buy in 1.45

Posted by Endgame > 2021-06-30 12:17 | Report Abuse

I will sapu if further to 1.35, yummy yummy

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-07-01 23:20 | Report Abuse

@joezhang. Thank you very much for the sharing. I totally agree with your analysis.

1. The stock is closely held.

I track the transaction volume since day 1.

Some key indicators to look into

5 years - total of 35.07% outstanding shares change hand or average 207,700 shares per day. Which was very low as compare to other stocks

During the sell down period in March 2020 .
Only 1.7% of outstanding shares transacted at price below 90 sen from 12th March to 10th June 2021

During recent upside from 10th June 2021 to 1st July 2021 , only 5.22% outstanding shares transacted.

From 29th June 2021 to 1st July 2021 , average shares transacted per day below 300,000. Good sign of consolidation and preparing for next upside once news of BNM approval in speculation.

MPHBCAP shares is tightly held by those with strong holding power and for long term investment.

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-07-01 23:21 | Report Abuse

* typo. Should be 12th March 2020 to 10th June 2020

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-07-01 23:23 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/newsbreak-u-mobile-appoints-cimb-ipo-adviser-targets-rm10-bil-rm11-bil-valuation

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-07-01 23:27 | Report Abuse

Regarding privatisation post MPIB. The possibility of corporate exercise of tking MPHBCAP private highly possible as SU might not need the cash from MPHBCAP as if U Mobile IPO , Magnum through the 8% holding , will able to generate about RM800MM if disposal away U Mobile shares. If the money pay as dividend , SU will receive few hundred million RM

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-07-01 23:30 | Report Abuse

If my memory serve me well , the holding in U Mobile was through the option granted by TSVT when Magnum became the guarantor to TSVT bank loan when purchased U Mobile shares from Korea operator when they decided to exit the market.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-07-02 11:47 | Report Abuse

SU is 76 years old and aging. He has a son and 2 daughters who are never in the limelight of the corporate world . He has privatized WCE. He will privatize MPHB as it is just too lucrative for him.
Magnum with political risk on gaming business is not attractive to be privatized , but will be the cash cow to be milked kau-kau for as long as possible.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-07-02 13:08 | Report Abuse

Correction for post above : he has privatized MWE (not WCE)…

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-07-02 13:15 | Report Abuse

@opportunate, I think uMobile will be either cash monetized or distributed to shareholders of Magnum upon listing. If cash monetized , all the cash will be paid out as special dividend to Magnum’s shareholders . It is unwise to keep cash reserve in a lottery company amid political uncertainty.

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-07-02 14:19 | Report Abuse

John, is it advisable to hold some Magnum shares? May I know what are the pros and cons in holding Magnum! Please advise. Thank you.

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-07-02 14:53 | Report Abuse

@johnzhang yes , indeed. With our current political climate , very uncertain to number forecasting industry. The best for them is to distribute the cash as dividend whenever they can.
Holding the assets in MPHBCAP for SU will be more secure.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-07-02 16:55 | Report Abuse

@chkhooju, when life normalise from covid pandemic and number forecasting business is allowed to operate smoothly, Magnum share price is likely to recover to $2.30-2.40 which is the average price pre covid . Thus, there may be 15-20% capital gain based on Current price of $2/-.
EPS and Dividend may normalise to the average level of 16 sen per year (average from 2012-2019). DY will then be about 6+%.
The risk factor may be considerable: IRD slammed huge backdated tax bill on the company in 2017($476 mil) and 2019($144 mil). Although, the company may have finally settled at lower rate, the risk for the government to continue squeezing money from the company in future years can not be overlooked. I also think that there is no growth in this industry and infact , it is facing huge threat from the underground or online operators .
I personally do not own any Magnum or Btoto share for quite a few years. Amid very soft Malaysian stock market now,. they are many other sectors or stocks offering similar or higher potential capital and DY returns . Just my personal view .

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-07-03 10:17 | Report Abuse

Thanks, John.

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-07-03 11:51 | Report Abuse

Thanks @opportunate

Posted by Goh123 > 2021-07-03 11:51 | Report Abuse

Good stock no ppl goreng ....no use

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-07-03 11:57 | Report Abuse

Fundamentally strong stock need not have to goreng. It will shoot up on its merits. When people realize its deep value, they will continue to buy. Just be patient. In fact I prefer it to go up gradually.

Posted by Endgame > 2021-07-05 14:09 | Report Abuse

Still wasting time writing and talking? Just hoot it bro...

Posted by chkhooju > 2021-07-05 14:41 | Report Abuse

Yes, do continue to buy when its price suits you. Take your time. Don't have to be hasty unless volume suddenly creeps in.

Posted by Opportunate > 2021-07-06 00:32 | Report Abuse

MPHBCAP can be consider as event driven stock. Since listing , investors holding tight with the stock pending for the event to materialised. Along the way , some investors sold their holding due to the disappointment for uncertainty of the event to materialised.
As of current status , the event ( disposal of insurance business ) expected to complete in the near future. Within 2 to 6 months pending BNM approval. My view was that once approval granted , this stock will be under the spotlight of the speculators and volatility will increase.
So , holding tight for next few months while pending approval. Once approval granted , time to consider to reduce holding if price go beyond 2.50.