insignificant. just for fun. fundamental improving gradually (thanks to higher than expected tenancy ratio + continue to expand more towers - for are certain). Rare case of single digit premium (although irrelevant).
also switched some OCK 97 sen to GADANG 128 sen (hopefully can switch back on condition that GADANG moves higher first). Gadang is too low to ignore after taking away Capital City.
if you want to add position into warrants, this is the time now. The trend has been change to accumulate phase for last 20days. i am adding my position, this accumulation phase i believe will last for another month https://ibb.co/bYqbCk
1.Hike in steel price is not a issue because remaining 310sites material already in place.
2.Telenor Myanmar has purchased a twelve-year licence for a 2×10MHz block of spectrum in the 1800MHz band and in the midst of enabling 4G/LTE on 1800MHz network
3.Telenor has retained assets of 1,200 sites, which are predominantly rooftops and currently up for sale. This proven that appoint independent towerco towers is cheaper than owning. The direction to add another 10,000 sites by 2018 is firm.
4.Most towercos have been in discussion with Mytel( the fourth and final operator license) for the past few months though negotiations have yet to finalise and no contracts have been signed
5.On average in myanmar, most of the mature towers that are two-plus years old would have a tenancy ratio around 1.6
On the pretext of better than expected tenancy ratio for Myanmar, improved ratio for Vietnam, additional PBT about RM4-5m for Solar Segment as compared with last year, added some.
First time for warrant at RSI 30, highly oversold. Am not expert in TA, but fundamental of 2017 vs 2016. Market cap went up about RM100m (80 sen to 92 sen) for:
1) completed 600 units of tower in Myanmar 2) completed acquisition of about 2000 units of tower in Vietnam 3) solar profit this year will contribute additional PBT of RM4-5m
Item (1) and (2) = EBITDA of >RM55m (market gave EBITDA multiple of 10x, hence worth about RM550m, item (3) is easily worth RM50m. CAGR next 3 years expected >30% p.a.
RM600m (fundamentally improved and sustainable) vs RM100m (price action). If still have reserve as planned, can accumulate at 33sen.
Supernormal profits are not made by following the conventional wisdom (crowd). One must be able to visualised 18-24 months down the road, and see an entire different picture from the conventional wisdom, by Stan Druckenmiller.
Continue to be positive for growth (both Myanmar (new telco licence being issued) and additional towers in Vietnam.
Good opportunity to accumulate @ 32sen (as gap between price and value expanded). Never buy a share if you do not have 12-24 months of horizon (or longer). Never buy it if you're unable to explain a rationale reasoning to an investor and estimates of how much its value exceed its price.
top up more @ 30 sen, growing biz model (more towers+BTS, higher tenancy towers+BTS and improving cost efficiency in Vietnam) + sustainable cash flow. Focus on the EBITDA multiple growth (one of the key metrics).
Reminded me of Gadang when it dropped from RM1.80 to RM1.20 (pre-bonus/split/foc warrants) due to one quarter of lower than expected results (construction and property profits are volatile and accounting treatments mislead participants) and lack of interest from retailers/fund managers.
Deemed as good opportunity for accumulation since it dropped from peak of 41 sen to 30 sen, especially for new participants.
33 sen, still a bargain. With CAGR about 30% for next few years, PE 29 is not extreme. For tower biz, EV/EBITDA multiple is accepted as market valuation (Axiata sold Edotco at 12.5x). Only half of the biz can use PE (the non-tower biz).
At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for OCK GROUP BERHAD (0172.KL) is standing at 38.69. A reading under 20 would suggest no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal while one greater than 25 would indicate a strong momentum....
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
VFTRADER
788 posts
Posted by VFTRADER > 2017-06-02 22:19 | Report Abuse
Price will be push up before any Bonus Issue announcement.
Can refer to CAB price movement in the past 2 months before they made announcement.
Can also refer to Top Glove BI I think 2 years ago as price been push up >10.