Posted by kasinathan > 2019-05-23 15:09 | Report Abuse

The bear is at infant stage... More to come... Falling knife

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-23 15:27 | Report Abuse

Falling mother bear......who get hit poci lah.........!

Posted by armadasaxon > 2019-05-23 15:53 | Report Abuse

Go in lor.2.97...drop so much edi

Posted by alex89 > 2019-05-23 15:54 | Report Abuse

more to drop... prior due to trade war

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-23 16:06 | Report Abuse

Ayoooo........hug the mother bear at 2.95.......sakitnya!!!

Posted by wongkokmun > 2019-05-23 16:08 | Report Abuse

295 bought

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-23 16:15 | Report Abuse

Anyone top up...

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-23 16:17 | Report Abuse

2.9 ready

Posted by Nepo > 2019-05-23 16:17 | Report Abuse

I wish I have so much money like wongkokmun to invest...

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-23 16:17 | Report Abuse

Like hit by a lorry.....Hahaha :-)

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-23 16:22 | Report Abuse

Blooding on nett

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-23 16:22 | Report Abuse

Give u a tisu to lap

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-23 16:25 | Report Abuse

Every 4pm down onward. To be foreign fund running

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-23 16:27 | Report Abuse

TQ signalmv, sometime just stubborn that create the tragedy..........a bit still can tahan.

Posted by Calvin882 > 2019-05-23 16:36 | Report Abuse

Hi Nepo, pls don't be so naive to believe when ppl comment but at certain price. I also can type I buy at every 1 cent difference. But only himself knows whether he really bought or just simply influence ppl

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-23 16:50 | Report Abuse

Yeah....I totally agree with u, Calvin. Boys cheating girls oso like that one, Nowadays society is like that, 真的又不真，假的又不假！Hahaha!!! :-)

Posted by sell > 2019-05-23 21:51 | Report Abuse

Every day new low so more drop ahead?

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-23 22:08 | Report Abuse

Yeah, everyday huge drop until we all faint........then only consolidate! :-)

Posted by gsi723 > 2019-05-23 22:22 | Report Abuse

No winner in this ctr...

Posted by Savusavu > 2019-05-24 01:01 | Report Abuse

holy cow, so fast....

bus 294 waiting for passengers to board.....

Posted by Y2016 > 2019-05-24 01:19 | Report Abuse

Bus-250 is queuing behind

Posted by moven00 > 2019-05-24 08:38 | Report Abuse

Integriti tak boleh dibeli dgan duit. Jangan sekali kita berurusan dgan Orang yg tak berintegriti. Akibatnya padah.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-05-24 14:06 | Report Abuse

Will LC increase earning over time? No.
For 2019 & 2020 the earning will be significantly low compare to previous quarters. Due to compressed spreads higher depreciation and taxes. LCT delivered core net profit of only RM33mil in Q1 FY19, down 86% on-year on the back of on-year declines in average selling prices (ASP) which more than outweighed the drop in naphtha prices.Depreciation costs rose 31% on-year due to the commissioning of the PP3 polypropylene plant in Pasir Gudang from Sept 1, 2018, and because turnaround costs are now being depreciated over a shorter period.Effective tax rate rose significantly as reinvestment allowances in relation to the PP3 capex were fully used up in FY18.
Q1 FY19 average naphtha prices falling 8.5% on-quarter, product spreads generally declined, with HDPE-naphtha spreads falling 8.7% on-quarter, PP-naphtha spreads falling 6.1% on-quarter, and benzene-naphtha spreads down 66% on-quarter. From February 2019 onward, oil prices have staged a rebound, and naphtha prices have followed. While spot product prices have crept up, the increase has not been enough to keep up with rising naphtha prices, hence spot product spreads have declined in Apr from Q1 FY19 averages.

Converting sales to profits? No.
In fact the revenue will drop as less demand & over supply flood to the Asian market due to China trade war and tariff applied to US petrochemical. The additional tariff of 25% levied against 2,493 goods including liquefied natural gas, soy oil, peanut oil, petrochemicals, frozen vegetables and cosmetics.

Stock currently undervalue? No. Potential upside in price target? No.
Spreads in April are even weaker than in 1Q19 due to the naphtha price rally, putting 2Q19F earnings at risk
PE now at 11.4 at current price, in another 2 quarters, PE will shoot up to 30 plus after earning result out, Stock price will be adjusted and share price will drop further.

Is demand increase in near term? No.
The continuation of the weakness seen during 4Q18, and was the result of poor demand from Chinese factories, and the diversion of US polyolefin exports to Southeast Asia from their traditional market in China due to the imposition of 25% import tariffs by China when the US-China trade war broke out.
Trade war will make economy slow down in 2020, and trade war escalating after US target at China Tech companies. Trade war will go on.

Is oversupply problem still exist? Yes.
The global oversupply of ethylene-based petrochemicals (from US-based capacity additions) and heightened competition from Pchem’s Pengerang plants (which may start up in 2020F) as the key downside risks. LC planned to cut MEG production June for around two to three months. Downstream Petrochemical plants have reduced production in China amid weak demand and the ongoing US-China trade dispute, with the overall operating rates dropping to 89% and the rates are expected to fall further.
With slower economy growth , more Petrochemical plant form India & China coming up will add to supply demand issue.

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-24 15:55 | Report Abuse

Wait tp 2.9 another 2 sen not go down... Now 3

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-24 16:20 | Report Abuse

Haha.......forget giving kacang puteh to those directors?? :-)

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-24 16:23 | Report Abuse

Jia hui.. Profit lor

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-24 16:32 | Report Abuse

Nowadays market very tough oledi, almost all counters profit less or loss, plus T+2 , really hard to find even kacang puteh.........:-)

Posted by gsi723 > 2019-05-24 17:04 | Report Abuse

Rebound leh

Posted by crisstone > 2019-05-24 19:16 | Report Abuse

LCTITAN is good you can buy for the long term. for short term profitable trades and counters analysis
join my group. Whatsapp at +60 10 8599 233

Buy fundamentally strong stocks which are undervalued. Because undervalued stocks can fetch higher returns in long term.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-05-25 01:42 | Report Abuse

Wohoo lctitan rebound , must thx pH government

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-25 08:58 | Report Abuse

Down 10 days, up 1 day. Cheers??

Posted by moven00 > 2019-05-25 16:19 | Report Abuse

Rebound shiok....terjun lagi minggu depan...

Posted by moven00 > 2019-05-25 16:19 | Report Abuse

Menangis tak berlagu

Posted by sell > 2019-05-26 11:21 | Report Abuse

Rebound bec oil drop a lot on Thursday?

Posted by Savusavu > 2019-05-26 12:17 | Report Abuse

i retimed my journey to soul,

waiting for first bus number 2.35 and transit with second bus number 2.25

...just pray and hope to arrive safely or else will end up in amsterdam....

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-27 16:02 | Report Abuse

Luckily cabut at 3.09, now geng2.......!

Posted by signalmw > 2019-05-27 16:15 | Report Abuse

How heng?

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-27 16:23 | Report Abuse

Sometime just listen to seniors, e.g. Ah Huat's comment this mrg............:-)

Posted by Kayme > 2019-05-27 16:40 | Report Abuse

1.03% that is about 25 million of share to be distributed to Public to meet requirement.

Posted by MKoh > 2019-05-27 17:00 | Report Abuse

Performance of most businesses in petrochemical industry was halved compared to their performance in 2018 due to slow demands resulting from continuous trade conflict between the U.S. and China and continuous slump in petrochemical industry. Market conditions for ethylene and PE, polypropylene (PP), and ethylene glycol (MEG) had showed weak trends in 2019.

The wave of new capacities in the US, leveraging on shale gas, and expectation of slower global economic growth has affected ASP and taken a toll on product spreads. The commercial operation of RAPID would also reduce LCT’s product premium.

Estimate that for US$50/mt drop in spread, LCT would lose RM400m in profits. Given the market down-cycle, 2019-21F earnings forecasts by 42-83% which culminates to -38% CAGR over 2018-2021F.

The wave of new petrochemical supply in the US, leveraging on shale gas, coupled with the expectation of slower GDP growth in the wake of the US-China trade tension drove the industry deeper into the market down-cycle. The slowing demand led to lower ASP while naphtha costs has risen in tandem with crude oil prices. These narrowed naphtha-PE spread which now at US$560/mt, from US$600/mt (-8%) in 4Q18 and US$685/mt (-18%) in 2018.

Narrower product premium ahead of new local capacity. In the past, LCT’s products command US$80-100/mt premium to the benchmark price. However, expect the premium to narrow going forward with the onset of PChem’s RAPID complex coming on stream in 2H2019.

Challenging earnings outlook. FY19-21F earnings forecast by 42-83% on lower product spread assumption. Estimate profits to erode by RM400m for a US$50/mt contraction in spread. That is despite new earnings stream from US shale gas project and full-year contribution from the 200k MTPA PP3 plant. Forecasts earnings to decline at -38% CAGR over 2018-2021F.

Posted by MKoh > 2019-05-27 17:39 | Report Abuse

Asian petrochemicals outlook, w/c May 27 :

OLEFINS

Strength in Asian ethylene markets is expected be hit by rising supplies. Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical is closing its latest tender to sell 10,000 mt of ethylene for H2 June/H1 July loading. China's ethylene demand is also seen to be slowing down as most end-users managed to buy their requirements for June.

Meanwhile, the Asian butadiene market is expected to be firm in June as South Korea's Lotte Chemical will produce 5-10% less butadiene at its Yeosu and Daesan units due to lower butadiene yield from its crude C4 feedstock. This could mean an estimated loss of 2,000-3,000 mt of butadiene cargo across both the units.

The Asian butadiene market remains tight due to a prolonged strike at South Korea's Hanwha Total Petrochemical cracker in Daesan. The development comes amid YNCC's month-long turnaround in May at its 240,000 mt/year butadiene unit, rendering the June arrival market tighter.

POLYMERS

The Asian high density polyethylene market is likely to remain bearish due to uncertainties stemming from the US-China trade tensions. Despite the drawdown of inventory from a combined PE and polypropylene inventory pool of 890,000 mt to 760,000 mt week on week Wednesday, market sources said demand for imported cargoes was weak as local inventories were still sufficient to meet immediate needs.

Buying interest in Southeast Asia will also be weak due to the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, and supplies are ample in Vietnam and Indonesia, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach. In the Indian market, the overall weakness in Asia dampened sentiment with prices of most PE grades declining.

Sentiment in the Asian low-density PE market is expected to be lackluster this week as buyers wait for a clearer price trend to emerge.

INTERMEDIATES

Asian monoethylene glycol prices climbed $10/mt day on day on Friday which caught many trade participants by surprise, despite soft crude oil price and weak MEG fundamentals. Most trade participants were worried MEG prices could not sustain an upward trend, and the market may have to correct soon due to a supply glut and waning demand. MEG inventories remained ample with 1.31 million mt at main ports of eastern China. Downstream, demand was decreasing along the whole polyester chain in China amid an escalation of the US-China trade dispute, with polyester plant operating rates dropping to 88% Friday and expected to continue to fall, sources said.

The Asian purified terephthalic acid market continued to demonstrate weakness Friday, with prices coming under pressure recently after a major PTA maker stopped purchasing spot material, market sources said. PTA tumbled $35/mt week on week to be assessed at $770/mt CFR China Friday amid weak demand. Meanwhile, China domestic PTA plunged Yuan 550/mt (around $80/mt) to Yuan 5,520/mt ex-works over the same period. There is still room for CFR China PTA prices to fall further due to a healthy PTA-PX spread, sources said.

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-28 10:54 | Report Abuse

Waiting at 2.91.......

Posted by armadasaxon > 2019-05-28 13:50 | Report Abuse

Told u go in oredi ma..drop so much..kikiki

Posted by Man Nur > 2019-05-28 14:25 | Report Abuse

apa tunggu lagi kawan kah kah kah

Posted by wongkokmun > 2019-05-28 16:42 | Report Abuse

3.01 bought

Posted by moven00 > 2019-05-28 17:24 | Report Abuse

Ini undervalue ke, murah ke.....saya tak mau. Masalah integriti. Payah nak berniaga dgan orang Yang tak berprinsip Dan integriti kurang.

Posted by Elfkone > 2019-05-29 09:22 | Report Abuse

Ada apa cerita boleh kongsi moven00?

Posted by Kayme > 2019-05-29 14:53 | Report Abuse

The US petrochemical industry is experiencing unprecedented growth with production of ethylene expected to exceed 45 million mt/year by 2025, Enterprise CEO Jim Teague said in a statement.

With Trade War going on, all US products will flood to Asian market as China will not buy more and also economy growth slow down due to trade war.

Year 2019 will be very challenging for LC with over supply and low selling price.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-05-29 15:55 | Report Abuse

Many Petrolchemical company add more projects and building new plants expect future demand growth but didn't expect Trade War happen. In commodity market, prices are base on supply and demand.

Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-05-29 16:06 | Report Abuse

Waiting 2.91