Posted by newbie92 > 2017-10-27 06:18 | Report Abuse

Wow,net cash Over Rm 3 Billion, still not enough to attract buyer?

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-27 06:58 | Report Abuse

In short, i think the fundamental of the stock is JUST OK (definitely still long way to GOOD result) , more to kicks in after 6mths (operation of TE3).

There are few things to take note (non - business item) :
i) TRES is an unknown, for Q1 is +38.9mil, Q2 is -21.9mil, Q3 is -8.8mil
ii) Listing expenses tat has booked in is (79.5mil / 115mil), remaining 35mil.
iii) The net cash of RM 3 billion (due to proceeds from IPO), can get interest income of 26mil/quarter (which is quite significant)
iv) Loss in share of results of associates is Q1= - 2.5mil, Q2 = -16mil, Q3 = -18.6mil.
v) Foreign Exchange is Q1 = 3.6mil, Q2= 12.3mil, Q3 = 11.2mil

From the above, the non-business item is quite significant to LCtitan net profit. Each item can impact the net profit by 5-15%. What's lucky is, there are some + item and - item, ended up they are offsetting each other.

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-27 09:01 | Report Abuse

Btw, LCTitan's margin is highly dependent on the Naphtha (raw material price) & PE, PP, BD, BZ (product selling price, which can be seen on pg 6 of their briefing).

The difference between product selling price & Naphtha is the crack.

From the observation, Oct 2017 is more or less like July 2017, except better BD gap, but has start narrowing in Oct. (Please note that for Jan - Mar 17, the BD crack are superb awesome, which believed are the reason of good profit for that Q).

In short, the existing crack/price are not so favorable (just similar to July 2017) to LCTitan.

I believe when the factory are back to normal, say 90% utilization rate, the PAT might reach about 350mil + assuming the crack spread are similiar.

However, it should be noted that utilization ration is not = profit.


[Note: Utilisation Rate for Q1 = 59%, Q2 = 71%, Q3 = 77%]
Rev Q1 = 1,915mil, Q2 = 1,776mil, Q3 = 2,016mil
Operating Profit Q1 = 389mil, Q2 = 146mi, Q3 = 240mil.

Posted by speakup > 2017-10-27 09:48 | Report Abuse

next Q results will be worse due to plant shutdown last month.
SELL ON STRENGTH!

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 10:23 | Report Abuse

Ok thanks spy008 for the info. I guess by rough deductive calculation, they could have hit at least close to 300mil if they had no maintenance to the NC1.

Posted by newbie1111 > 2017-10-27 10:30 | Report Abuse

so no catalyst for this share until next Q?

Posted by fygj786 > 2017-10-27 10:31 | Report Abuse

Assuming 4 quarters of this "not so good quarter", it is now trading at PE13, slightly low for a growing company imo.

Posted by ETmoney > 2017-10-27 11:10 | Report Abuse

Get ready for an uptrend soon. as soon as this afternoon.

Posted by enning22 > 2017-10-27 11:13 | Report Abuse

we can interprete the q report this way,there is a original LCtitan and enlarged LCtitan, for original LCTT , this result is excellent, but for enlarged LCTT, the result CAN BE considered lack lustre, there is why we saw some light selling.But we must also understand, for the enlarged LCTT, the new plants have NOT YET IN OPERATION in indonesia, so need to hold on for sometimes , before we see the final take-off.

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-27 11:36 | Report Abuse

@speakup, what plant close down last month? do u really understand what is the situation?

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-27 11:37 | Report Abuse

@enning22, what new plants in Indonesia. tat 1 need more than 1 yr later. the new plant which is going to commence commercially is TE3, which is in Malaysia.

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-27 11:38 | Report Abuse

no such thing as ori/enlarged LCTitan, theres only 1.

Posted by enning22 > 2017-10-27 12:07 | Report Abuse

lctt, if you prefer, for clearification sake,it can be put into this way:before-IPO (original)or after-IPO( enlarged), merely for simplification sake for those with low IQ, don't misunderstand.

Posted by kira87 > 2017-10-27 12:08 | Report Abuse

enning22, are you speaking english?

Posted by enning22 > 2017-10-27 12:18 | Report Abuse

i speak marsian

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-27 12:29 | Report Abuse

haiyo kepala sudah pusing o.....

Posted by WahHaaHaa > 2017-10-27 12:34 | Report Abuse

It's the Public Spread and Stock Price that's the issue now ! That is why the market maker buys and sell 1 lot at anytime just making sure no BIg Boys unloading their Holdings as the Uptrend Play is slowly making it's way up ! Just a measure of what should be the the market price for this Stock now after many IBs been calling at higher prices for this Stock with the lastest by TA of RM6.66 for it and CIMB's call of highest at RM8.35 (?) ! Local institution and Cornerstones price at IPO RM6.50 as per book. Since the Company is "NEW" as per IPO listing few months only, the PE ratio as of now is empirical still, so let's do it this way :

Latest NTA is RM5.06 + Listing Premium (say 5%) , so at least it should go above this lor ! Just my 2 cents view.

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-27 12:57 | Report Abuse

why company members don't buy company shares??

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-27 13:05 | Report Abuse

@weavefinder....

The thing is, though we know their plant utilisation rate... but we dunno their selling rate.

i.e. If they produce 77% of their max capacity, does that means that they actually sell off 100% of those produced? (or 90%? or 110%, old stocks) ?

If they ramp up the plant utilisation to 90%, will they still managed to sell out 100% of that 90%?

FY 2015, their production volume is 2,701 KTA (sales volume is 1,985 KTA, 74%)
FY 2016, their production volume is 2,703 KTA (sales volume is 1,993 KTA, 74%)

Q2 FY 2017, production volume = 479 KTA (71% of 2,703/4 quarters) & sales is 367 KTA, 77%
Q3 FY 2017, production volume = 520 KTA (77% of 2,703/4 quarters) sales is 439 KTA, 84%

1) From the above, we have learnt that their sales is not 100% (mayb that is not 100% true cause they have various product, but tat is a simplified way to understand the situation). Meaning to say, even they ramp up the production to 100%, it is "useless" unless the sales/demand can catch up.

2) Their average quarter sales volume is about 500 KTA, meaning to said the Q2 & Q3 2017 is under the average, this might due to the oversupply of Petrochemical market, but the sales:production volume is higher than average 74%.


Based on the latest commentary of prospects,

a) We anticipate that the petrochemicals market will continue to be resilient in the near term with
demand growth for petrochemicals to outpace the rate of new supply additions in the region.[GOOD NEWS BUT WE DUNNO HOW TRUE IS THIS]

b) While olefins and derivative are expected to be slightly bearish as supply improved on the completion of regional cracker planned turnaround. [BAD NEWS]

c) Indonesia polyethylene plant load will remain low until polyethylene economics return. [BAD NEWS]

Therefore, i would say (WITHOUT BIAS & not HOO HAA & talk crap/sweet because i own this share) , even though WE ALL KNOW that their production volume is gonna ramp up due to no more maintenance and possibly new commencement of TE3, it does not guarantee that their net profit will be SUPERB. (but HIGHLY likely to be much better, but how much better is hard to justfiy/expect, mayb not even the management themselves.)

Afterall, they really really rely on the overall petrochemical supply & demand & price which is out of their control.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 14:27 | Report Abuse

Its ok spy008, dont be too overly concern. You could estimate from the inventory level and sales to determine sell rate, but dont bother, its gonna be too cumbersome. My stand is that life is precious and short, things which are meticulous and complex, let it take its course. Furthermore, we only buy LCT, we do not work in there to recognize the intricacies and bottlenecks. Anyway thanks for the info.
Whatever it is lets see whether the market maker will behave himself this evening or not.

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 14:29 | Report Abuse

Bravo 88, how to answer your million dollar question?

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-27 14:41 | Report Abuse

after few month share listing,nobody board member buy company share....

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 15:01 | Report Abuse

Ok, now i get you, if you are a non substantial shareholder, I think it is 6% and below, you do not have to report.
That is why if you look at Petron, you will not see any shareholder transaction being done, despite having institutional shareholders. There is no other substantial shareholder except Petron Corp Phil.via MIB (mayban inv) which holds 70%.

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 15:14 | Report Abuse

But if you are a principal officer or board member of the co, then you give notification of your intention to trade via bursa. If i am not mistaken reading it in the prospectus, total held by directors after IPO in LCT is less than 1%.

Posted by asturay > 2017-10-27 16:40 | Report Abuse

Tat y fatty kim hot with south korean.alway spin d word.like lotte

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-27 17:06 | Report Abuse

tq bro weavefinder.......

Posted by SuperPanda > 2017-10-27 18:45 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR: Lower sales volume and higher unit production cost pulled down Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd’s (LCT) net profit by 33.9% in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2017 (3QFY17).

It reported a net profit of RM230.31 million compared with RM348.32 million in 3QFY16. Earnings per share fell to 10.42 sen from 20.16 sen.

Quarterly revenue was basically flat at RM2.02 billion compared with RM2.01 billion.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, LCT said the overall market started off moderately in 3QFY17 after the Hari Raya holidays.

It said market demand rebounded by late July following the Chinese government’s announcement to ban importation of plastic scrap by the end of 2017.

“The capacities taken offline caused by Hurricane Harvey in the US had temporarily affected supply from the US, especially to Latin America. The market was briefly lifted as concern over the supply disruption from US lingered. Meanwhile, supply from other regions was reportedly diverted to Latin America to fill the void,” it noted.

However, its group plant utilisation was lower at an average 77% in 3QFY17 compared with 92% in 3QFY16, mainly due to the statutory routine turnaround (every five to six years) for the Cracker 1 plant in Malaysia and Indonesia polyethylene plants load, which was reduced during the quarter under review due to poor polyethylene economics as a result of tight ethylene supply and high cost.

Still, the lower third-quarter performance dragged its cumulative net profit for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2017 (9MFY17) down by 33% to RM686.08 million from RM1.02 billion in 9MFY16. Revenue also fell 4.7% to RM5.71 billion in 9MFY17 from RM5.99 billion a year ago.

On prospects, LCT said it anticipates the petrochemicals market will continue to be resilient in the near term with demand growth for petrochemicals to outpace the rate of new supply additions in the region.

It expects its production output in 4QFY17 to be higher compared with 3QFY17 in view of the absence of any major planned plant shutdown and the expected commissioning of its new TE3 plant in 4QFY17.

“However, the Indonesia polyethylene plant load will remain low until polyethylene economics return,” it added.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, LCT expects its performance for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2017, to be positive.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2017-10-27 18:46 | Report Abuse

230m not bad.. lets see how market react

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-27 19:45 | Report Abuse

Super panda: next quarter will be awesome

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 19:52 | Report Abuse

Hey panda, just came back from overseas assignment or got kidnapped by some alien being. You seem oblivious to the already published results.

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 21:32 | Report Abuse

Gick, sometime within the last 2 months, the panda in Zoo negara returned to China as the duration on loan expired. But this Panda do not know about LCT becos he did not stop over at Korea. So what do you call a Panda who own shares of LCT? Your guess is as good as mine...kah,kah,kah

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 22:10 | Report Abuse

No offence intended super panda. Its just that haven't seen you around lately. What caught everybody by surprise is the timing of the release. Again LCT has shown it is the master of surprises!

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-27 22:21 | Report Abuse

Panda go korea jump gangnam style...

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-10-27 22:24 | Report Abuse

Following is Maybank Research’s take on Q32017 result.

Quoted “The management will propose to Board for 2017 dividend to be 50% of reported net profit minus MYR 300m turnaround Capex. Based on our forecast, this will amount to 17sen/shr which equates to 3.3% yield at current share price. However, the Board will decide post full-year 2017 results and seek shareholder’s approval in the AGM.”

Given that PCHEM dividend yield is 2.57%, at similar dividend yield Titan is worth ~RM6.72. That should however act as the ceiling to dividend based valuation, given the premium PCHEM should deserve with its superior returns.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-10-27 22:31 | Report Abuse

Lau333, do u follow or study for Plantation Sector ?

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-10-27 22:44 | Report Abuse

Not exactly but the palm oil should be good driven by both volume and price....

Posted by VenFx > 2017-10-27 22:56 | Report Abuse

When market start to hunt cash generating machine,
Plantation sector maybe the the one.
Still need to see wether the cPO can sustain or not.

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-28 07:28 | Report Abuse

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/298917

Posted by mredzuan > 2017-10-28 08:27 | Report Abuse

Te3 project 100% mechanically completed. Estimated it will launch before year end.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2017-10-28 19:46 | Report Abuse

year lorr.. suddenly rpt out. i though havent pblish here yet.

gick, next qtr hve ipo xpense 100m, wud not very good. even if earn 300m, will bck to 200m..

im thinkg of selling at 5.4 and only comg bck b4 Q1 FY18. im opportunist, if ither counter can give better return, i will grab.

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-28 21:02 | Report Abuse

Hi Super Panda, Q3 has shown the listing expenses:

Total Listing Charges : RM115,704,000 - RM79,250,000 ( had been counted as expenses in Q3)= RM36,454,000 ( will be count in Q4)

Another Expenses is PP3 project will be completed on 2H 2018. The project is estimated to use 200m for every quarter.

Besides this, Lotte has 3.6 billion cash on hand. and estimate to generate dividend as RM 36million for 1 quarter.

The rest need to depend the operational efficiency of current plant, the price of petrochemical, commencement of TE3 and others...

Posted by resilient911 > 2017-10-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/operations-halted-at-3-johor-water-treatment-plants-due-to-high-9353546

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-28 23:24 | Report Abuse

titan in pasir gudang...

Posted by mredzuan > 2017-10-28 23:29 | Report Abuse

Im living in johor bahru. So far no water disruption.Take bath 4x/day lately..wheather too hot.

Posted by mredzuan > 2017-10-28 23:36 | Report Abuse

Sometime i feel certain people just exaggerate some news. Maybe their intention to collect cheap share. Did u know that burst pipe last week somewhere in plentong, 20km away from pasir gudang?..somebody potrayed to make it looks like juz beside the titan....repaired immediately and settle within hour...talk about fire..then, at the end juz small fire...

Posted by mredzuan > 2017-10-28 23:46 | Report Abuse

According to news..affected area is kulai, kota tinggi and johor bahru...but i can confirmed with you, no water disruption in johor bahru so far...by the way..titan in pasir gudang district

Posted by apprentice > 2017-10-29 05:13 | Report Abuse

Seems like every burst pipe, every electric pole collapse within 100km of Pasir Gudang will disrupt LCT operations.

Comical.

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-29 10:16 | Report Abuse

Well there are rogue nations, there are rogue leaders, so the existence of rogue traders comes as no surprise.
Using basic mathematics 101, integration will show rogues summation eventually create rogue nations. I pray that we are not!

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-29 14:49 | Report Abuse

bro weavefinder....100% agree...rogue leaders....

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-30 09:25 | Report Abuse

Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd
(Oct 27, RM5.19)
Maintain buy with a lower target price (TP) of RM6.66:

Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd’s nine months of financial year 2017 (9MFY17) core profit of RM717 million (-29% year to date [YTD]) was within our expectations, but below consensus — accounting for 72% and 65% of full-year forecasts respectively. Lotte Chemcial staged a remarkable sequential rebound, where core profit surged 35% quarter-on-quarter, as plant utilisation recovered to 77% (second quarter of FY17 [2QFY17]: 71%). On top of this, recall that 2QFY17 was impacted by water supply interruption or 11 days. Additionally, higher interest income from initial public offering (IPO) proceeds amounting to RM26 million, boosted profits.

To a lesser extent, the bottom line was also propped up by lower taxes. The stellar comeback was in spite of a dip in 3QFY17 volumes from Indonesia. Recall that ethylene feedstock for Lotte Chemical’s polyethylene (PE) plants in Indonesia is mainly sourced externally. US capacity shutdowns due to Hurricane Harvey had led to a surge in ethylene pricing. Therefore, Lotte Chemcial scaled down PE production in Indonesia following the dip in PE spreads. To recap, Indonesian PE accounts for 22% of FY16 revenue. Exceptional items excluded from 9MFY17 core profit include: i) PPE write-off s: RM39 million; ii)reversal of administration expenses for Lotte Chemical USA: RM15 million; iii) initial IPO expenses: RM14 million; iv) foreign exchange gains: RM28 million; and v) fair value gains: RM9 million.

YTD bottom-line contraction was mainly attributed to lower volumes and higher unit production costs due to the water incident in
April 2017. Recall that in 9MFY17, there was statutory turnaround at both of Lotte Chemical’s naphtha crackers for a total of 86 days. Additionally, volumes were also affected by the water incident, and reduced output from Indonesia. The above more than off set higher product average selling prices ( 20% YTD), lower taxes and increased interest income.

Key takeaways from a conference call: Management is optimistic about achieving strong utilisation of 90% for its Malaysian plants in 4Q17. This is underpinned by completion of all statutory turnaround, with no shutdowns scheduled for 4Q17. On a dim note, PE
output from Indonesia is expected to be lower due to weak price-earnings margins. Also, management expects 4Q17 demand to be resilient, underpinned by higher demand from Latin America until the supply from the US market recovers. Recall that US ethylene crackers were shut down at end-3Q17 due to hurricanes. Development of TE3 and PP3 projects are on track with 100% and 42% mechanical completion respectively. TE3’s targeted commercial launch date of 4Q17 remains intact despite a fire incident.


— TA Securities Holdings Bhd, Oct 27