Developing trust take time...i haven't learn to trust Ekovest.. Please take no offence....i have followed GDB for more than 2 years. I believe i can trust them!
而且重点是是平均价才0.625. 下来还有一个director 也买进。个人认为如果把握的话。Director 不会买进自家的股票。他们一定很肯定股价被低估了。14天后from LOI..我们在看看会不会签LOA.个人算过这个股票。TP最少1.00 而且是以profit margin 7%来算的 PE 12 . CONSTRUCTION AVG INDEX
Did some behind the tissue box calculation for GDB.
Currently with 8conlay award, orderbook sits at RM2.27bil over the next 3 years.
Revenue per year, equally dividing RM2.27bil is RM757mil per year(We should see higher revenue allocation to 2021 and 2022 due to completion of Park Regent, Hap Seng Showroom and Hyatt Centric Sabah)
Historically, their PAT margin hovers between 12% - 7%, taking the lower case scenario of 7% - 9%
7% PAT RM757mil x 7% = RM52.99mil PAT EPS of RM0.084784
PE8 - RM0.678 per share PE10 - RM0.848 per share PE12 - RM1.017 per share
8% PAT RM757mil x 8% = RM60.56mil PAT EPS of RM0.06896
PE8 - RM0.775 per share PE10 - RM0.968 per share PE12 - RM1.163 per share
9% PAT RM757mil x 9% = RM68.13mil PAT EPS of RM0.109
PE8 - RM0.872 per share PE10 - RM1.09 per share PE12 - RM1.308 per share
Also, another thing worth noting is that 8Conlay has had a portion of it's super structure completed so a majority of the award would relate to interior works which I believe should provide them with a greater margin due to it's high premium luxury development.
I think it's a strong buy for me at this levels for GDB as they have proven again to be a solid construction player with capabilities to secure high end sophisticated projects. Also with a very solid balance sheet and net cash position. Lastly at current price of RM0.735 per share at the time of writing, 2c dividend per year would provide 2.7% dividend per year which is still higher than FD rates. Also with a dividend policy of 30% which historically has been higher at 44.8%, we might even see 3-4c dividend in FY21-22.
Not to mention GDB has a reputation of completing projects ahead of schedule.
This implies that GDB:
1. Has a very experience and capable Project Management Team, which utilize their manpower and machineries to the optimum level. 2. Can make higher than peers profit margin due to early completion of Projects, which usually leads to cost savings. 3. Has a very good sub-contractors supporting them which always delivered the Project on-time or ahead of schedule. This also means there is a good relationships between GDB and their sub-contractors, which is very crucial for any construction company.
Many in the market has some concerns and doubts on the payment.....
GENER, just my views on the following:
1) The 8 Conlay cannot afford to delay anymore....I believe KSK Land cannot afford to fail this first project, especially such a high end and prominent project. 2) GDB being a reputable construction house will have the interest to see 8 Conlay completed timely with quality. 3) I see both GDB and KSK Land are definitely committed for 8 Conlay success. 4) I hope KSK Land will pay timely to ensure the smooth execution of this project. My guess is their financial is not that bad. 5) As payment is progressive, GDB still has some options in the worst case. Hopefully nothing will happen as what we are imagining.
My thinking is about the same with you except slightly different on the thinking on PE.
The market is normally, forward thinking. When I bought GDB, the PE was about 5 to 6 times only, but now is about 16 to 17 times. After IPO, for many months, no projects were secured, the market thus less understand GDB's potential, so the market priced it at a low PE. Then especially after 2019, 953mil was secured, the market has understand a little more on GDB's potential, so thus willing to accord a higher PE......
The 8 Conlay if done successfully, will be another hallmark to GDB. The success of it will on the minimum maintain the 16 to 17 times PE and won't be surprised may even go higher......
My personal PE for quick reference is 15 times but the actual can be higher...
Anyway, a good PAT in 2021 will definitely bring angpao to us all.....
Great to see more guys are posting their thoughts on GDB.....
Totally agree on the sub-con relationship part. A great team both from within GDB and the committed and experience sub-cons are needed to be successful....
Agree that the eventual margin depends on how well and efficient you execute the project. The COO Alex got a big and important challenge at hand. I trust he will do well after hearing that he is the most hardworking guy around.
In 2018, when I was told GDB completes all projects ahead of schedule, I don't believe what I heard, until I personally went into GDB website to see for myself.
A Singapore civil engineer that log into GDB website was impressed, I was told.....
KSK's payments have always been very very slow and sale of 8 Conlay has not been very optimistic. Moreover, the previous main contractor has taken legal action against KSK for terminating them, and apparently their stance seems to be quite strong. What are your thoughts on the impacts to GDB?
Also do note, at 77c, dividend annually @ 2c per share is still at 2.60%. Higher than FD. Profits are poised to increase which could see dividend rise to 3-4c.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
shrobin
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Posted by shrobin > 2020-10-26 21:58 | Report Abuse
Developing trust take time...i haven't learn to trust Ekovest..
Please take no offence....i have followed GDB for more than 2 years.
I believe i can trust them!