Posted by Damien88 > 2021-09-29 07:53 | Report Abuse

China is the largest producer of ferroalloy in the world, producing >60% of world supply.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-09-29 08:38 | Report Abuse

Ferrosilicon (FeSi) prices now hits the highest level since the start of Fastmarkets pricing records for FeSi, dating back to Jan 1997

Posted by stonest > 2021-09-29 11:58 | Report Abuse

sims, here's the report that I mentioned earlier on the RM4.01 TP. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices continue to rise today, to the moon!

https://alanyeo.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/strategy_-_commodities_rally_continues_to_gain_momentum.pdf

Posted by sims > 2021-09-29 12:58 | Report Abuse

thanks, i had a look.

found something interesting from element 25.

https://www.element25.com.au/site/PDF/f9dcb849-24c3-493c-98e2-790d70e9cceb/Element25GrantedPatentforHighPurityManganeseProcess

OMH receive manganese shipment from E25.

Posted by sims > 2021-09-29 13:31 | Report Abuse

thanks, SeaPearl.
the report mention by stonest, is not at OMH website...yet

the IB report from stonest link, is really bullish on commodities,
Aluminium, Tin, Fesi.

i make some from pmetal, will re-enter at dip...to get some on the strong quarter ahead.
MSC, i really dont know much, and wont enter.

i did some reading on why suddenly Fe Si up, coz its been around for so long.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3988925/FOCUS-What-is-driving-up-ferro-silicon-prices-in-China.html

Posted by SeaPearl > 2021-09-29 14:57 | Report Abuse

Welcome sims. I copied the 2 links for easy reference while waiting for stones' report.
Thanks stonest.
Perhaps can consider CMSB, lower entry price?

Posted by sims > 2021-09-29 16:34 | Report Abuse

now only they update....repaste the link for future reference.

https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021.09.28-UOBKH_Commodities-Rally-Continues-to-Gain-Momentum.pdf

Posted by sims > 2021-09-29 17:14 | Report Abuse

very good read, on history of OMS

https://www.newsarawaktribune.com.my/om-sarawak-raises-its-ferrosilicon-manganese-alloy-output/

Posted by sims > 2021-09-29 17:17 | Report Abuse

few article to build some sense of how big is OMH compare to its neighbor PEER ( Pertama & Sakura, in samalaju)

PERTAMA FERROALLOYS
https://docplayer.net/42738654-Pertama-ferroalloys-new-integrated-ferroalloy-producer.html

Sakura Ferroalloys
https://www.sumitomocorp.com/en/jp/news/release/2016/group/20160516_1

will try to gauge Ferroglobe...through their annual report

Posted by sims > 2021-09-29 18:41 | Report Abuse

https://investor.ferroglobe.com/static-files/5859bd42-1981-4590-bf8f-30ff82f92394
https://investor.ferroglobe.com/static-files/2cc8cd6c-0135-4bea-98f8-70db56362954

its actually Ferroglobe Qr for Q1 & Q2, 2021...

reading for the purpose of understanding

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-09-30 08:11 | Report Abuse

Ferroglobe continued to make losses for 1Q and 2Q 2021, yet its market cap is still US$1.5b, this is 3x bigger than OMH which will be making record profits (>A$200-300m) based on current spot Alloy prices!

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-09-30 08:14 | Report Abuse

Bursa investors will wake up to this stock very soon…there is now a lot more IR/PR effort compared to the past.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-09-30 08:18 | Report Abuse

In 3Q 2021 alone, Ferrosilicon is up 87% and Manganese silicon is up 58%!
It is probably the best performance commodity for this super cycle

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-09-30 08:21 | Report Abuse

Source: Reuters - China metal consumers to feel supply sting from forced power cut (29Sep21)

Posted by sims > 2021-09-30 08:38 | Report Abuse

today, ASX is bullish. OMH Open 0.945, now 0.97. Western media already start reporting FeSi ATH, further due to chinese golden week. Japan, India all price due to china buyer try to secure supply

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-09-30 08:42 | Report Abuse

Buy on weakness...!

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-09-30 09:20 | Report Abuse

Both two big producers of ferroalloy ie China and India are suffering from power shortage! This will further curb the supply of ferroalloy esp going into the winter months

Posted by sims > 2021-09-30 10:10 | Report Abuse

current price is really cheap.

in next mth, after quarter result out....its would be uite hard to get anymore due to more coverage by the edge, all shifu buy call and limited share unit in our side (unless u had ASX account, buy there or transfer)

Posted by VTrade > 2021-09-30 11:13 | Report Abuse

Is Hard earn money

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-09-30 13:04 | Report Abuse

Omh is trading at a premium currently to its Aussie counterpart. Makes more sense to trade on ASX for now at 95 sen. More liquid trade wise and not as volatile as its Malaysian counterpart. The violent drop this week would have killed a lot of contra players. But good FA company nevertheless.

Posted by sims > 2021-09-30 15:56 | Report Abuse

The main reason for the price increase is the shutdown limit imposed by various regions under the dual energy control policy, which triggered the market's expectations of tightening supply of ferro alloys.

Silico manganese and ferro silicon are widely used as deoxidisers and alloying agents in steelmaking to eliminate excess oxygen and sulphur in molten steel and improve the quality and performance of steel. Therefore, they play an indispensable role in steelmaking. Although the amount used in the steelmaking process is small, its demand is considerable amid the huge steel output in China.

Judging from the survey of completion of Energy Consumption Dual Control Targets in Various Regions in the First Half of 2021 issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 17, in the first half of this year, the energy consumption intensity of 9 provinces (regions), including Qinghai, Ningxia, and Guangxi, did not decrease y-o-y. The energy consumption reduction rate in these provinces has not met the requirements, and the country's energy conservation situation is grim.

A study report pointed out that from the comparison of the production capacity ratios of major industrial products in the 9 provinces, it is found that ferro alloys are the first to be affected by the dual control of energy consumption.

In addition, the power gap in Inner Mongolia has not been fully alleviated, and Yunnan, Yulin, Shaanxi and many other provinces have also implemented dual control policies.

It is expected that the scope of manganese and silicon production restrictions may continue to expand, while the market still has doubts about whether the September production restriction can greatly improve in the near term.

Under the influence of the dual control policy of energy consumption, the prices of ferro alloys have repeatedly hit record highs. Among related products, ferro silicon and silico manganese futures currently listed on the futures market have continued to rise, and they have appeared in recent days.

The main silico manganese futures contract has risen by 75.59% this year, and the main ferro silicon futures contract has risen by 118.32%. Over the same period, spot prices also rose sharply.

The expected contraction on the supply side has driven the alloy market to become hot. With the tightening of policies, some alloy companies have successively issued limited production suspension statements.

Outlook

Ferro alloy and other high-energy-consuming power industries seem to be the targets of this large-scale nationwide action.

Since silico manganese and ferro silicon related industries account for less than 1% of GDP, the impact of curbing the output of the alloy industry is relatively small. Under the stiff target of energy consumption reduction in the 14th Five-Year Plan, if there is no advancement in smelting technology to reduce energy consumption within five years, reducing output will be the only way at present. Finally, under the target requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutrality (that is, carbon dioxide emissions will strive to reach the peak before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060), the output of the ferro alloy industry is expected to face a relatively strict dual control policy for energy consumption.

It is widely believed that a cyclical upward trend in prices of ferro alloys has started in China, with the profit margins of silico manganese and ferro silicon production companies globally rising considerably compared with the previous years.

Posted by sims > 2021-09-30 22:33 | Report Abuse

By
SteelMint Bureau

How is China planning to overcome the power crisis?

It is being widely predicted that after the Evergrande debt disaster rocked China's real estate and financial markets, the next big crisis that has erupted is the prevailing power crunch due to acute shortage of coal supplies, with toughening emission norms and growing manufacturing demand driving domestic and international coal prices to record highs.

As the prevailing power shortage cripples the country's provinces and cities, China's regulatory authorities have stepped up efforts to ensure safe and stable supply of coal during the winter-heating season when consumption typically peaks.

Coal contracts for winter

As per reports in the Chinese media, the central and local governments have taken steps to supplement the signing of medium and long-term coal contracts and determine emergency coal storage bases to improve supply and price stability.

On 25 Sep'21, a coal contract-signing ceremony was held in Beijing for mid- and long-term agreements for power generation and heating in China's North-east. The coal contract is a coal purchase and sale contract with a clear implementation period. Based on railway transportation, the contract follows a base price + floating price mechanism.

As per latest reports from China, the overall implementation rate of medium- and long-term coal contracts in 2021 has exceeded 90%. Senior officials of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have informed that the regulatory authorities must continue to increase the coverage of coal contracts and ensure implementation though minute supervision.



Key coal-producing provinces

At the NDRC's behest, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and major coal producing companies held a special meeting on 24 Sep.

Officials at the meeting underlined the need to speed up the release of advanced production capacity, make efforts to increase production and supply, put resources into enterprises, and urge power and coal companies to complete the contracts as soon as possible to ensure supply during winter. Localities and enterprises have also taken measures to promote stable coal prices and supply during the heating season.

In order to ensure smooth operation of power and heat supply in the heating season and the coming spring, Liaoning Province has selected 13 companies including Shenyang North Coal Market Co., Ltd. as the provincial emergency coal storage base in the province. The purpose is to mobilise coal storage resources in emergency situations.

Companies lower prices

Many companies have taken the initiative to lower coal prices. The National Energy Group and China Coal Group lowered prices at Qinhuangdao Port on 24 Sep. The National Energy Group reduced sales prices by RMB 20/t and China Coal Group reduced prices by RMB 10/t.

At the same time, the Inner Mongolia Yitai Group, Inner Mongolia Qingmei Transportation and Marketing Co., Ltd., and Zhejiang Hongxing Supply Chain Company also promised that coal at Qinhuangdao Port will be sold at lower than market prices.

Li Zhongmin, Deputy General Manager of National Coal Trading Centre, said that the tension between supply and demand in the coal market will tend to ease. It is expected that coal resources for heating and power generation will be fully guaranteed in winter, and coal prices won't rise.

"The experience of winter storage in various regions is also becoming more abundant. Many companies in the three North-eastern provinces have winter storage ahead of schedule. After the preliminary supply preparations, it is expected that coal prices will remain within a reasonable range in the critical winter period," Zhongmin stated.

Power problems

China's power generation through Aug'21 was actually 10.1% greater than in the same period in 2020, and nearly 15% more than the corresponding period in 2019, as utilities across the country ramped up power supply to meet surging industrial demand. But, along with higher power generation, came higher emissions, which exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the first three months of 2021.

As per NDRC, only 10 out of 30 mainland Chinese regions achieved their energy reduction targets in the first six months of 2021. Local governments in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Guangdong provinces have asked factories to limit power usage or curb output.

Amid rampant power rationing affecting industries across the spectrum from food processing

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-01 08:39 | Report Abuse

Big beneficiary from China crisis loh!

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 10:49 | Report Abuse

i think about what price you are holding OMH currently,
unless you plan to buy more or sell and buy more at lower. price (time the market)
it is consider more safe to had some base position, so that your wont miss the speed train.

i highly suspected OMH will LU few more time again to meet the high TP (UOBKB said 5.3)
similar like PMBTech

therefore, your buying price range of 2.95- 3.03 is really not much difference.
unless, you accumulated at 2.20 week before.

It is possible to get highest record dividend (in Aus currency covert to RM) from OMH history , and Bonus issue and warrant if follow KLSE style.

the problem is, can you hold and not regret selling too early...

way much much early, just for merely less than 100% profit

the bullish of FeSi, will at least sustain until 2022, and when you look back.....ahh.....should have done this or done that

Posted by Loop37 > 2021-10-01 11:06 | Report Abuse

UOBKH TP 3.27

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 11:12 | Report Abuse

OMH

We raise our 2021-23 earnings forecasts by 41%, 52% and 37% respectively as we increase our ASP assumptions of FeSi and
Mn alloy to US$2,000/US$1,700/US$1,500 and US$1,500/US$1,400/US$1,300 per mt for 2021-23. We increase our target price
to RM4.01 (previously RM3.46) accordingly. If prices continue to rise, based on our sensitivity analysis, every US$100/mt rise in
our FeSi and Mn alloy price assumptions will boost earnings by about 25% per year.
• As an eco-friendly and the world’s lowest cost quartile manganese smelter, OMH is expected to post a 3-year net profit CAGR of
+172% from 2020, supported by production recovery and robust ferroalloy prices due to favourable supply-demand dynamics.

by UOBKH 28.09.21

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 11:13 | Report Abuse

provide support to prices.

If prices continue to rise, based on our sensitivity analysis,
every US$100/mt rise in our ferroalloy and aluminium price assumptions of US$1,700 and
US$2,300 per mt in 2022 will boost OM Holdings (OMH) and Press Metal Aluminium’s
(PMetal) earnings by about 25% and 16% per year respectively. For OMH, if FeSi price
remains at its current high of about US$3,000/mt in 2022, this could result in 32% upside to
our target price of RM4.01 to RM5.30. For PMetal, assuming a similar PE of 30.0x (5-year
forward PE mean) being ascribed, this could mean a 15% upside to our target price of
RM6.90 to RM8.00. Every US$2,000/mt increase in our tin price assumption of
US$25,000/mt in 2022 could raise MSC’s earnings by about 20% annually. If tin price
remains at its current high of about US$37,000/mt in 2022, this could result in 23% upside to
our target price of RM3.02 to RM3.73.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 12:01 | Report Abuse

first you need to identify who is OMH customer, and try to tie in the current fesi or manganese prcing to it.

just search fb, its there.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-01 13:11 | Report Abuse

At FeSi Us$3,000/ton, OMH will be making net profit US$200-300m pa. This will be similar to Pmetal earning. Yet PMetal market cap 10x bigger than OMH. How this market can really misprice even tho they are trading on same exchange

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-01 13:13 | Report Abuse

If I were PMetal, I would do Takeover of OMH. OMH is so cheap by all measures. Immediately, PMetal profit would double. Most OMH shareholders will be more than happy to exchange for PMetal shares haha…

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 13:27 | Report Abuse

its very hard to take over OMH, OMH management had fence off one of the major stakeholder trial to takeover few years bck, at the period they propose dual listing in HK.

my thesis is, since CMSB had 25% stake of OMS, buying some CMSB could be beneficial.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 13:28 | Report Abuse

by the way, pmetal and oms are neighbor...in samalaju.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 13:32 | Report Abuse

few years bck, i was working in bintulu, been to samalaju and also stay at samalaju resort.

do avoid the beach aat the back of the resort for safety reason. possible crocodile.

and when the wind is not blowing, the air smell.....not sure how to describe....

Posted by Loop37 > 2021-10-01 14:35 | Report Abuse

OMH closed at 0.97 in ASX. nice!

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 15:09 | Report Abuse

the reference of Bye-Laws Take Over Provision is under IPO documents (pg36/198)
regarding the share pricing fluctuation in ASx & KLSE (pg 38/198 under 5.4.7 & 5.4.9)

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/5298_OMH/ipo/2021/5298_OMH_IPO_IPOP_OMHoldingsLimitedProspectusPart2_965543223.pdf

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-01 15:26 | Report Abuse

PMetal PE is 74x and OMH forward PE is probably 3-5x
I must say PMetal mgt is very capital market savve, they can take advantage of capital market to help their capital structure. They believe they give priority to IR/PR to bring in new investors. I cannot say the same for OMH mgt.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-01 15:27 | Report Abuse

If OMH share price stay too Low for too long, takeover will be a real possibility

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-01 15:29 | Report Abuse

Even if PMetal offers RM6, it is still only 10-15% of PMetal market cap.
At RM6, many OMH shareholders will sell out…so PMetal can easier be the single largest OMH shareholder in a takeover

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-01 15:32 | Report Abuse

OMH business has many synergies for PMetal given they are both smelters at the same industrial park at Sarawak. It is also a very good diversification strategy for PMetal. Best of all, OMH is seriously profitable, at very cheap valuation.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 16:22 | Report Abuse

by theory approach, yes.

in reality, i dont think local taiko CMSB will ever allow >.< under his roof, and both of their biggest customer might had influence on this aggressive takeover.

plus the clause below on Bye Law already close that door
share distribution listed as per below

22-Jun-21
KLSE ~ 16.8 Mil (2.33%)
ASX ~ 721.2 Mil

27-Jul-21
KLSE 59.1 Mil (8.7%)
ASX 679.5 Mil


the takeover incidents
https://www.smh.com.au/business/om-holdings-wary-of-consmin-takeover-bid-20090108-7cn1.html

But OM Holdings said it was "simply not possible to incorporate Australian takeover provisions in their entirety ... as a Bermudan-incorporated company".

Bye-laws take over provisions
there are presently no requirement under Bermuda laws or regulations of general application which will require persons who acquire significant holdings in our share to make take over offers for our shares or to notify us. AS we are company incorporated in Bermuda, the rights of our shareholders are primarily governed by the laws of bermuda and the previous relating to take overs and notification of substantial shareholding of Australian Corporation Act will not apply to offers for our share


http://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021.04.13-ASX-OMH-Non-Executive-Director-Retirement-and-Notice-of-Annual-General-Meeting.pdf

Pg 13-14

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 16:24 | Report Abuse

indeed, Aussie dont really like OMH...for whatever reason..not sure

Posted by sims > 2021-10-01 16:32 | Report Abuse

Marketing GM Adrian Low is related to CEO Low Ngee Tong?

sir name does look same....didnt compare the face resemble in youtube interview .

from observation, do found the OMH had strong grip on management, after read the open letter.

anyway, i think for malaysia...coz we are new to this company, and at the right time where company start to excel.

as long as it a growth company with possible big dividend on this year and next year, the OMH remuneration is really not my concern....coz i didnt vote for it historically.

and as usual.....KLSE style, you make money, you do bonus issue and give free warrant, then we are happy

Posted by sims > 2021-10-02 14:58 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2021/09/29/tourism-activities-can-resume-in-sarawak-from-friday-oct-1-says-state-tourism-ministry

as OMS partner, perhap CMSB can assist to bring in the manpower/specialist to get the remaining furnace up and running, so that OMH can unlock its full potential on the smelting section


https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021.07.29-ASX-OMH-June-2021-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
The final performance testing of the sinter plant and equipment installation works
for the furnace conversion project have been deferred to the end of 2021 due to the
extension of the lockdown in Malaysia restricting the entry of foreign nationals


https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021.04.30-ASX-OMH-March-2021-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
Planned conversion of 2 idled FeSi furnaces progressing as planned with furnace
excavation and civil works in progress


https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.29-ASX-OMH-September-2020-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
An additional ferrosilicon furnace was placed on maintenance during the current
quarter. Limitations on hiring new foreign workers continued to impact the Plant’s
ability to operate at full capacity. The conversion of 2 idled ferrosilicon furnaces to
produce manganese alloys is currently at the planning stage

https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/2020.07.30-ASX-OMH-June-2020-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
An additional ferrosilicon furnace was temporarily idled during the quarter due to limited
manpower as a result of strict travel restrictions imposed by the Malaysia government and
other state government authorities. Recruitment of foreign skilled and semi-skilled manpower
remains a challenge due to limitations on the hiring of new foreign workers with stricter
guidelines requiring adherence

Posted by BursaRangers > 2021-10-03 21:26 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/BursaRangersTechnicalPicks/2021-10-03-story-h1591875996-BursaRangers_Daily_Technical_Picks_4_October_2021.jsp

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-04 11:44 | Report Abuse

With the current ferroalloy prices at all time high, and continue to move higher ie up another 40% MnSi (manganese silicon) and 80% FeSi (Ferrosilicon) in 1 month from Sep 2021, we can expect profit for OMH to surge to record high US$200-300m based on current spot price.
OMH forward PE is now record Low 2-3x based on RM3!!!

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-04 12:34 | Report Abuse

Up 6.8% today…should continue into afternoon session.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-04 12:57 | Report Abuse

OMH just made an announcement on FeSi price. It has hit through the roof, now FeSi at US$4,125/ton…OMH cost is only US$1,000 per ton

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-04 12:57 | Report Abuse

We can expect Bursa investors to react this afternoon

Posted by moremoneyy > 2021-10-04 13:14 | Report Abuse

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3197865

Posted by moremoneyy > 2021-10-04 13:15 | Report Abuse

only a few companies in Bursa are benefiting from this rise in FeSi