Posted by sims > 2021-10-12 14:45 | Report Abuse

this is the time to see who are patience enough.
2 more week before enter the week of Qr release.

buy is easy, got money, buy la.
sell is even easy, take profit, and revisit
hold, that is the art that few master.

Posted by teareader818 > 2021-10-12 15:20 | Report Abuse

@sims, do you anticipate QR to show exceptional profits?

Posted by sims > 2021-10-12 15:21 | Report Abuse

but to add more, one definitely know slightly more than other.

do you know how much fesi price now compare to the market update by OMH anouncement.

if you know, i think i dont need to say anything, while you are busy buying.

Posted by Targeted > 2021-10-13 00:59 | Report Abuse

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/business-58879481.amp

Coal price soaring......

Posted by Targeted > 2021-10-13 02:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2021/10/12/india-asks-utilities-to-import-coal-warns-states-not-to-sell-power-on-excha/2012877

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-13 09:22 | Report Abuse

Someone seems to be ‘guiding’ the price down to 3.80 - 3.75…
Will be interesting to watch

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-13 09:40 | Report Abuse

And towards 3.70…

Posted by sims > 2021-10-13 09:46 | Report Abuse

as retailer who havent buy, should take chance to buy the operator cheap ticket.
you do know that post Qr, there wont be any ticket below 4.

for those who already own, just ignore him/ her operation, by the next post public holiday,
it will most probably back to uptrend.

you can never time the market.

for a momentum stock with condusive situation, its best to just hold or add when dip,
the rebound would be so quick, that you wont be able to catch it unless you are fulltime trader

another mindset would be, pre qr result out, this is the chance for you to accumulate shares at low price, and just sit and wait for fat (very fat) Aussie dollar dividend.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-13 09:50 | Report Abuse

Agree with you fully!

Posted by nagasaran93 > 2021-10-13 09:56 | Report Abuse

I take an exit first cos my ep quite higher, will re-enter when dip more.

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-13 09:59 | Report Abuse

Major Ukraine ferro-alloys producers slash output in October
Published by: Declan Conway
11 Oct 2021 @ 15:37 UTC
The two biggest ferro-alloys producers in Ukraine - Nikopol and Zaporozhye - are almost halving production of manganese alloys in October due to surging electricity prices, a source told Fastmarkets on Monday October 11.
The Privat Group, which owns the facilities is shutting five of its 13 furnaces at Nikopol, cutting its monthly manganese alloys output to 35,000 tonnes, from 65,000 tonnes in September. It is also idling two silico-manganese furnaces at Zaporozhye, cutting monthly production there by 5,000 tonnes in October. Zaporozhye's monthly ferro-silicon production is unchanged at 6,000-6,500 tonnes, the source said.

“No-one is interested in cutting production volumes, but at this stage the situation is such that an increase in the cost of electricity entails a reduction in profitability, and hence a reduction in production. And no one will work at a loss for themselves," Nikopol chairman Vladimir Kutsin said.

Ukraine energy prices jumped more than 25% to 2,175 hryvnia ($94) per 1,000 KWh in October, from 1,650 hryvnia per KWh in September, according to the Ukrainian Association of Producers of Ferroalloys & Other Electrometallurgical Products (UkrFA). Last year the average monthly energy price in Ukraine was 1,295 hryvnia per KWh.

The move to cut ferro-alloys production by Privat follows a strong rally in manganese alloys prices this month after news that Slovakia's OFZ plans to halt more than half of its furnaces due to sharply higher energy prices.

Manganese alloys prices in Europe jumped sharply last week, while silico-manganese prices in Europe increased 20% on October 8 to reach their highest level since Fastmarkets began assessing the market in January 1997. High-carbon ferro-manganese prices, meanwhile, jumped 12.6% to match a record peak last seen in October 2008. These price moves follow shrinking output across Europe, with production cuts also reported in Spain and Slovakia.

Manganese alloys availability is tight for prompt demand and replacement costs are expensive given the current logistical uncertainty and reduced production elsewhere in the world due to the Covid-19 social restrictions. Surging electricity costs, both in Europe and elsewhere have helped too cement a record rally in international bulk alloys prices.

Fastmarkets’ price assessment for silico-manganese, lumpy, 65-75% Mn, basis 15-19% Si (scale pro rata), major European destinations was €1,900-2,000 ($2,198-2,314) per tonne on Friday, while Fastmarkets assessed the price of high-carbon ferro-manganese, basis 78% Mn max, standard 7.5% C, delivered Europe at €1,800-2,000 per tonne. Privat mainly sells its ferro-alloys output to domestic steelmakers in Ukraine, but also ships volumes to steel mills and alloys traders in Europe.

Ukraine exported about 25,000 tonnes of silico-manganese in the first eight months of 2021, compared with around 50,000 tonnes or the whole of 2020. The country exported about 90,000 tonnes of ferro-silicon in January-August 2021, compared with about 180,000 tonnes in total over the whole of 2020.

The end-user markets for manganese alloys in construction and in the automotive sector are showing signs of a strong return to growth this year, while there have been steel supply shortages in Europe and only limited import availability due to container shortages and trade protection measures.

Silico-manganese is used to make long steel for the construction sector, such as rebar and wire mesh. Ferro-manganese is used as a deoxidizer in steel production and in finished products for vehicle manufacture and stainless steel. So steel mills tend to use ferro-silicon and ferro-manganese together when making the flat steel typically used in carmaking.

Nikopol made more than 200,000 tonnes of manganese alloys in the first quarter of 2021, up by almost one-fifth year-on-year and up by more than 50% since December. Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant and Zaporozhye Ferroalloy Plant produced almost 250,000 tonnes of manganese alloys in the first four months of 2021, down by more than 10% year-on-year. The decline in production was thought to be a result of measures to combat the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ukraine typically imports most of its manganese ore from Ghana, and bought in almost 125,000 tonnes in the first four months of 2021.

Posted by DarenWai > 2021-10-13 10:23 | Report Abuse

Wow. Sell like crazy

Posted by DarenWai > 2021-10-13 10:24 | Report Abuse

Looks like pmbtech is Asomugha better than this counter

Posted by nagasaran93 > 2021-10-13 10:28 | Report Abuse

Will enter when dip at my Fibonacci level support.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-13 10:30 | Report Abuse

Looks like a very aggressive short seller on the move…

Posted by DarenWai > 2021-10-13 10:32 | Report Abuse

Even though pmbtech is more expensive but actually it is a better counter

Posted by Loop37 > 2021-10-13 10:51 | Report Abuse

OMH being a dual-listing stock have to follow the movement of its share in ASX, unlike Pmbtech. The spread cant be too large. Therefore, if OMH ASX drops, the one in bursa will follow. As of now, it is down 5% in ASX but on a very low volume. I believe its a shakeout.

Posted by nagasaran93 > 2021-10-13 10:51 | Report Abuse

Aussie index is now on a pullback, it's normal that the Bursa would follow.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-13 11:04 | Report Abuse

no idea, why the worry.

look forward into 1/ 3/ 6 mth period

1. is FeSi price shot down?
2. Is OMH going to make loss?
3. is China going to recover and produce more FeSi?

share price is going to self adjust to it.
important is price is discounting now, why scare of paperloss?
why not buy more? i dont understand.

that is purely emotion

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-13 11:04 | Report Abuse

Standard short seller playbook. Ramp it down aggressively and try to shake the confidence of the weak hand, and buy back cheap.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-13 11:17 | Report Abuse

u all do know short seller or operator operate in grey area, in between release of qr result or some bad news.

there are limit of share price he/ she can pull down with his/her fund.

if he/she sell, and small retailer like us, keep swallow buy never throw out, he/ she actually get burn badly when the superb qr result out (coz he had less share unit).

now the big environment is driving feSi price like crazy, and u all are intimitated by this small time operator.

wow, 2 more week, result out, n u dont have OMH share, super super regret i think.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-13 12:00 | Report Abuse

I am looking forward to a short squeeze haha…

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-13 12:06 | Report Abuse

Both Silicon manganese and ferro silicon China future price dropped 7-8% this morning, I guess this is the reason of poor performance today.

Posted by oasischeah > 2021-10-13 12:26 | Report Abuse

Waiting to go in again.

Posted by Targeted > 2021-10-13 12:56 | Report Abuse

Nice..... managed to get some cheap tickets today

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-13 12:56 | Report Abuse

Same here.... Seem like ASX is trading at higher price now.

Posted by Targeted > 2021-10-13 14:34 | Report Abuse

Green closing wouldnt suprise me at all....

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-10-13 14:42 | Report Abuse

silicon manganese and ferro silicon will need to be use not only for steel rebar for construction, but also for other applications like car industries, machine, parts etc...

With power crisis in China, India and Europe, price will remain elevated...today just technical adjustment...

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-13 16:38 | Report Abuse

China ferro silicon futures price hit limit down today, I guess the price will continue to shrink tomorrow as China already approved to increase the power usage for heavy industry at Inner Mongolia.

Wait for a lower price to collect.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-10-13 17:12 | Report Abuse

Any link on related news...can share?

China limit steel productions, results in iron ore price to drop 6% due to drop in demand. As for ferro silicon, investors speculate such rule will result in drop of ferro silicon usage...but i do know it hits limit down.

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-13 18:18 | Report Abuse

It is already in the major China news. You may search it at Sina Finance as well. Manganese alloys also drop 8% today

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-14 09:38 | Report Abuse

This is the news as at this morning.

国内期货早盘开盘，能化商品普跌，聚氯乙烯（PVC）期货跌停，硅铁跌超6%，锰硅、甲醇、乙二醇（EG）跌超5%，液化石油气（LPG）、纯碱、铁矿跌超4%；涨幅方面，沪锌涨超4%，国际铜主力合约涨超3%。

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-14 09:41 | Report Abuse

The short playbook here is so standard and obvious for people who are observant about their short strategy;
1) ramp down the price from Rm 4 over 3-4 days
2) make it seems like market sell down, although it’s just buying n selling with some big blocks among own parties
3) queue to buy back around rm 3.60-3.66
4) very little sell vol above rm 3.67 - 3.8, short seller doesn’t want to be selling at this Low level in case buying kicks in.
5) maintain below rm 3.7 to buy back and cover short position

Just to share my experience and observant so that you don’t get caught up in this trap.

The share price would recover base on OMH fundamental as alloy price even at US$3000 is record profit for OMH at any standard.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-14 09:49 | Report Abuse

Based on my calculation of FeSi Us$3,000 and MnSi US$2,000
GPM for smelter would be around US$430m at 75% production level.
We can expect 100% production in early 2022 when Malaysia opens up in 4Q21

Posted by sims > 2021-10-14 10:04 | Report Abuse

most enter OMH stock counter based the news from the edge. their understanding is Fesi ATH price.

if i am the operator, i whack OMH down to 3.3, and would have able to collect massive cheap ticket.....as mostly retail are enter around 3.3-3.6....protect the capital, its smart move.

cannot stay stuck for too long

Posted by nagasaran93 > 2021-10-14 10:05 | Report Abuse

Yes, you are right, it's not wrong on taking profit to protect the capitals and re-enter when there is a chance.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-14 10:16 | Report Abuse

Energy crunch....that means world less production....thus shortages loh!

Thus very good for OM loh!

Posted by sims > 2021-10-14 10:32 | Report Abuse

Anxiety will be reduce through knowledge of the business is all about.

https://www.udemy.com/share/10503c3@_HohyPzh2lvyGdtmvNoMFSsIVUzFbkRfQMZR1CNoElqCLBQiw4FULisaZUQJRhIzrw==/

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-14 11:00 | Report Abuse

Damien88, yes, you are right. Not to forget that OMH also own Manganese mines as well.

Posted by sims > 2021-10-14 13:40 | Report Abuse

seem like UOBKH had give a renew TP (4.21, 5.79) on OMH, can someone share the link here?

Posted by Targeted > 2021-10-14 14:26 | Report Abuse

.
UOBKH
*OM Holdings (OMH MK/Maintain BUY/RM3.72/TP: RM4.21)*
_Favourable Supply-Demand Dynamics To Support Ferroalloy Prices_

• *Unprecedented global supply crunch…* The ongoing power crisis globally has put further pressure to the current supply constraints for ferroalloys. Record high electricity and coal prices in Europe has led some producers to cut production. Producers in India are also pressured by the country’s power cuts.

• *…continues to push ferroalloy prices.* As of 29 Sep, ferrosilicon alloy (FeSi) and manganese (Mn) alloy prices had surged to an all-time high of over US$4,150/mt (+104% mom) and US$1,800/mt (+10% mom). We expect prices to remain firm in the long run, albeit not at the current high, as we believe the global power crisis may not be alleviated anytime soon and the structural supply issue may persist.

• *Power liberalisation will further support prices.* Recently, China announced it will allow coal-fired power plants to charge based on market rates for electricity. Electricity prices will be allowed to rise by up to 20% from base levels. With this new policy, we can expect power prices to increase and this will translate into higher ferroalloy prices.

• *Expect strong earnings ahead.* With the easing of the lockdown, OMH is now operating at 100% workforce capacity with 12 furnaces running. As such, we can expect stronger earnings moving forward as OMH ramps up its production on the back of robust ferroalloy prices.

• *Raise 2022-23 net profit forecasts.* by 12%, and 13% respectively as we increase our ASP assumptions of FeSi alloy to US$1,900 and US$1,700 per mt for 2022-23. Every US$100/mt increase to our FeSi and Mn alloy price assumptions will boost earnings by about 25% per year.

• *Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM4.21.* implying 9x 2022F PE (5-year PE mean: 15x). If FeSi price remains at its current high of about US$3,500/mt in 2022, this could result in 37% upside to our target price of RM4.21 to RM5.79 (6x 2022F PE).

Posted by sims > 2021-10-14 17:38 | Report Abuse

OMH uploaded latest UOBKH research report

http://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021.10.14-UOBKH_Favourable-Supply-Demand-Dynamics-to-Support-Ferroalloy-Prices.pdf

Posted by oasischeah > 2021-10-14 19:51 | Report Abuse

Bought back some at 3.66 today.

Posted by moneyface > 2021-10-15 08:55 | Report Abuse

Same here. Bought back some at 3.65. Hopefully can collect some more ticket at lower price today.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-15 09:12 | Report Abuse

The short seller will realise soon that there isn’t a lot of people wanting to sell at 3.65. Most of Bursa buyers know the high alloy prices will translate into super profits and dividends.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-15 09:30 | Report Abuse

Since 22jun when UOBKH initiate first coverage on OMH, it has re-adjusted OMH Target Price upward 3 times in 3 months!
I am not sure I see so frequent TP upgrade for most companies

Posted by stonest > 2021-10-15 09:58 | Report Abuse

I've seen frequent TP upgrades on some companies before. I think it's quite reasonable when there are so many drastic changes happening in the industry, especially these days, truly an unprecedented time!

Posted by sims > 2021-10-15 10:00 | Report Abuse

no more grey area, once QR result out.

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-15 11:18 | Report Abuse

Nice pop! With just 100-200k shares, OMH is up 5%

Posted by Damien88 > 2021-10-15 12:12 | Report Abuse

Hopefully we can see it pop above RM 4, with the help of some short covering