Posted by iafx > 2013-02-08 16:21 | Report Abuse

oh.... that's soooooo constructive!!! hahahaaaa

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-08 16:26 | Report Abuse

tonylim, saying property prices high, property bubbles can be a constructive view, in my opinion. It is subjective and everybody has different vieew. But "hope you get burned" in property, sifatt, tau-fu, BS, copycat ah, all these cannot be from a high iq fellow.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-02-08 16:30 | Report Abuse

Tell me something I dont already know. But is Malaysia only suffering from high property prices?

Take care, dude. BTW, You miss out "Another sucker"

Posted by reyes430 > 2013-02-08 16:39 | Report Abuse

Come on, Kcchong is just sharing, so what if hes holding the stock?Ppl you seriously think sharing all these is easy? So what if its from internet or bookstore? Its knowledge too! People like me maybe dont know and found that its really beneficial. Who else here sincerely willing to share their own analysis? I believe not everyone know exactly what kcchong has shared, and i dont remember who had claimed himself as SIFU over here.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-02-08 16:50 | Report Abuse

Gong Xi Fa Cai to all members here.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by joseph2321 > 2013-02-08 16:51 | Report Abuse

Happy Chinese New Year. U La La …

Posted by lmf_hau > 2013-02-08 17:24 | Report Abuse

Gong Xi Fah Chai ,, every 1 ,, ^0^

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2013-02-08 17:47 | Report Abuse

恭喜發財 ! 請不要吵架！大家做好好的朋友. 祝大家蛇年快樂 !

Posted by smartly > 2013-02-08 17:57 | Report Abuse

Happy Chinese New Year !!

kcchong, can you close this thread and start all new ?

rest this case & start new chapter.

All the best.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-09 20:53 | Report Abuse

wIsh everyone here a happy and prosperous Chinese New Year. Hope tomorrows would be better days for all investors.

Posted by aunloke > 2013-02-10 00:18 | Report Abuse

May the year of snake be more prosperous to all of us here ! kong si kong si to everyone !

Posted by littleshark > 2013-02-10 01:36 | Report Abuse

Happy CNY.. let us all mk lots of $$$!

Posted by iska > 2013-02-12 12:16 | Report Abuse

hi kcchongnz, stumbled onto this thread now..haha.. I have done quite thorough research on property stocks in another country, and am now looking at prop stocks in Malaysia. as i have just started, i would need plenty of research and help. would be googling all over the net, and following your takes on Bursa prop stocks. i am hoping my own research will complement yours and we can work together. my initial gut feel is that Bursa prop stocks are rather undervalued and the prospects for a re-rating up this year are good. i really appreciate your sharing, kcchongnz.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-12 22:37 | Report Abuse

iska, I am glad you suggested we work together as there is limitation what one person can do. It is really not easy to find people who are willing to contribute constructively. I hope other interested party can chip in too. But I must say I am no expert in property stocks valuation as it is a special department. Besides I don't have the relevant information and neither am I able to find out myself, either it is too tedious to do so or such I can't find any source of information; information such as the land a company has and the valuation of the land, the demand of the property development of the company etc. What I have is just historical and public information in Bursa which may not be that useful when evaluating property companies. Hey I am just a small retail investor residing in a far away land. There are others in the forum, maybe tonylim and others, are more knowledgeable in property. Hope they can contribute. Of course I will try to put in my opinion too if I have.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2013-02-13 00:33 | Report Abuse

It's not just property counters that are undervalued but also construction. They are significantly lagging behind telcos and the oil & gas counters although both of these have come down a bit of late. UOA Development is one counter I'm watching. It has stalled within a tight range at the moment but I believe its time will come again in the near future.

Posted by rlch > 2013-02-13 06:23 | Report Abuse

KC, let me contribute what I know. Plenitude latest quarter reported EPS only 2.1sen, a disappointment. Perhaps the company should have more property investment(eg from shopping mall) for recurring income instead of keeping so much cash yet not distribute to shareholders.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-13 14:43 | Report Abuse

Mat, yeah, many construction companies also undervalued. Election fear. Hope they are better after the GE when the uncrtainties are removed.
Rich, yeah very dsappointing on the last quarter report. The problem is they didn't carry out many projects last year. Hope things get better after the GE. I don't understand why they reduce the dividends last year since they have so much cash at hand.

Posted by iafx > 2013-02-13 14:52 | Report Abuse

bcos u do not understand while fa sounds, it does NOT means good biz, neither share price.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-13 15:00 | Report Abuse

while fa sounds, it does NOT means good biz

What are you talking about?????
fa sounds doesn't mean good share price, yes of course!!! But I never talk about share price, do I? This is because I cannot predict share price. Can you? Share price good or bad is due to human emotion, not sound fundamentals. Aiyah like that also you don't know, call people tau-fu pulak

Posted by iafx > 2013-02-13 15:05 | Report Abuse

" Share price good or bad is due to human emotion, not sound fundamentals"

Wah.... given yr view above; not tau-fu then what?

Did the comment said u talked about share price? What's yr prob?

Pls b contructive yeah, this forum not belongs to u, not all comments r to u

Posted by jtpc2006 > 2013-02-13 15:07 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, thank you for your analysis covering Plenitude and Hua Yang. I find them most illuminating. Would you please do the same for Tambun? Is this counter undervalued, what are it's prospects? Thank you very much and wish you all the best for the Chinese New Year 2013.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-13 15:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Feb 13, 2013 03:05 PM | Report Abuse
" Share price good or bad is due to human emotion, not sound fundamentals"
Wah.... given yr view above; not tau-fu then what?
Did the comment said u talked about share price? What's yr prob?
Pls b contructive yeah, this forum not belongs to u, not all comments r to u

Is this view " Share price good or bad is due to human emotion, not sound fundamentals" anything wrong?
Actually the question is what is your (ifax) problem, not what is my problem. Who is not constructive, you or me? Well each of us can say is not me, but important thing is what other people think from reading your post and my post.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-13 15:48 | Report Abuse

jtpc2006, again don't know much about Tambun. However I just had a quick look at its most recent quarterly report. Very good indeed. I would expect its full year 2102 results should make about 15 sen per share. At a price of 74 sen now, PE is just about 5, another undervalued property stock. Balance sheet is very healthy. This year's cash flow abundant. ROE about 13%, not bad. Good choice. If I am not mistaken, they give good dividend too, don't they? I think I am contemplating to buy some too. I don't know about its prospect. That has to look at the land it has, the development plan they have, the demand etc which is beyond what I can do as a small time retail investor.

Posted by pyramidpoh > 2013-02-13 15:53 | Report Abuse

Which property stocks can be invested I think a lot is overdrafted in the banks......?

Posted by jtpc2006 > 2013-02-13 16:48 | Report Abuse

kccongnz, thanks very much for the quick update. Yes, good dividends. Land bank properties have not been revalued. Thanks again.

Posted by 1n1792 > 2013-02-14 16:10 | Report Abuse

Kcchong
What is your opinion of ivory at this level 0.49

Posted by lyechin2002 > 2013-02-14 16:16 | Report Abuse

consider takaso

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-14 17:40 | Report Abuse

ln1792, I didn’t know anything about Ivory before I peeped into their latest financial statement just now. For the three quarters ending 30/9/12, revenue and earnings is Rm120m and 32.6 m respectively. Earnings per share is 9.7 sen. With the present price of Ivory at 48 sen now, it is damn cheap right? Hold on until you look carefully into the details of financial statements. Out of the 32.6 m profit, “other operating income” is RM50, just what is this “other operating income”? A look at their cash flows statement may provide some clues. Cash flow from their ordinary business is negative at least for the last two three- quarters’ results in the order of RM30m. For the last three quarters, the “non-operating items” is RM34m. Selling of land, or what is it? Isn’t there a conflict of the statement of income and the cash flow statement? Is it financial misstatement or financial shenanigan? Neither is credible for Ivory. That means for the last two years, though Ivory announced that they have made more than 10 sen per share each year, none of the year has any cash flow from operations, forget about free cash flows. I always emphasize that cash flow is the most important about a company. Ivory’s latest total debt is RM263m now, or 57 sen per share. Where to find money to pay annual interest payment of more than RM10 m a year, when there is no positive cash flows at all? Obviously have to issue more share or borrow more money. But last year already issue so many right issues already (2 for 1 rights?), how? Borrow more? Would bank lend when there is not even positive cash flow from operations?
Those are the reasons why Ivory’s share price has been a disaster for the past two to three years, I think? Buy Ivory as an investment? Not for me.

Posted by smartguy > 2013-02-14 18:45 | Report Abuse

If that is the case, COLD EYE invest a lot in ivory, meaning he don't even know how to read annual report? Different insight..

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-02-14 18:54 | Report Abuse

cold eye is not very smart, if he is very smart, he wont buy and hold so many value trap stocks.

msc, facb , plentitue etc etc, he is not very smart, smart ppl dont recommend a new stock every 2-3 months, look at shchan, multico, sapind, pie , amprop etc etc

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-14 18:59 | Report Abuse

I have utmost respect for Cold Eye. But for Ivory, if you are a smartguy, you better listen, listen and listen to impartial opinion from Impartiality. Cold Eye could have made a mistake. Everybody makes mistake. Anyway don't listen to me, but my advice is do your homework properly. Good luck.

Posted by millionaire > 2013-02-14 19:01 | Report Abuse

ivory is overtrading, :-)

Posted by rlch > 2013-02-14 19:30 | Report Abuse

What is wrong for a property company to incur debt like Ivory. Just like us individual how many of us buy house with cash? As long as land price keep going up(for property company) and house price increase(for individual) everything should be fine. Will bank refuse to lend if someone can pay? Ivory will be in big trouble if their property nobody want to buy. Any sign of this?

Posted by necro > 2013-02-14 19:48 | Report Abuse

Its not bout no one buy their properties its because when INTREST RATE increase you know la what will happen...

Posted by Hustle > 2013-02-14 19:59 | Report Abuse

Like your phrase Fat Cat.Basically some people will buy certain counter because of the asset that own by the company but please be rational that the asset is not own by your father.Whether the company want to repay or not after the asset been sold is still an unknown.Frankly said,most of the company will only change it to capital gain and re invest.So,do you think DY is important or NTA important?

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-02-14 20:16 | Report Abuse

DY and NTA is equally important,

DY is what you get , NTA is what you own.

i would prefer dividend paying company, i like to manage my own money.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-14 20:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by rlch > Feb 14, 2013 07:30 PM | Report Abuse
What is wrong for a property company to incur debt like Ivory. Just like us individual how many of us buy house with cash? As long as land price keep going up(for property company) and house price increase(for individual) everything should be fine. Will bank refuse to lend if someone can pay? Ivory will be in big trouble if their property nobody want to buy. Any sign of this?

Good point rich. Yes, it is ok for a company to borrow money to make money, absolutely. It is even good to borrow because debt is cheap compared to what equity investors want. Just an example, YTL Power borrows huge amount of money and makes huge amount of money for shareholders. The difference here is YTL earns huge amount of cash each year and paying the interest of the loans is sap sap sui. Where does Ivory get money to pay interest? By revaluing the value of its properties? Lets just take your analogy of an individual buying a house. Lets say he owes the bank 500,000 and the value of the house is 400,000 now. How does he pay the principal and interest of about 5000 each month? Sell off a room which has appreciated already? Next year another one? Where does he get money to pay for electricity bill, telephone bill etc? Remember he doesn't have any cash flowing in each year? Borrow more from the bank or another bank? Do you think the bank will lend him more as he has no income to even makan? For property companies, sell off a piece of land now and then? Is that the ordinary business of a property company? You question of whether there is any problem with their property, no one to buy etc, I don't know but reading what impartiality has written, I tend to believe in him. And it is scary! But as I have said, don't trust anybody. Do your homework properly. It is your money at stake, not anybody else's.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-14 20:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > Feb 14, 2013 06:54 PM | Report Abuse
cold eye is not very smart, if he is very smart, he wont buy and hold so many value trap stocks.

fei mau, you are entitled to your opinion. But let me say some fair words for Cold Eye. The background of ColdEye is he was just a reporter. How much could he earn and safe. But if you look at some of the major shareholders of some companies, some mentioned by you, he is one of the major shareholders. I think his net worth can easily be a few tenths of million, or even more. How does he accumulate such wealth? Corruption? Remember he was just a simple reporter. There is no doubt that he became a multimillionaire from investing in the stock market. I read his e-book before. My personal opinion is he is a great investor, following a proper investing process. How come he owns some stocks which has gone down in value? Well for one the fundamentals of those companies are good but the share price may not have caught up yet. It could also he could have made some wrong decisions. Hey who has not made any wrong decision in the stock market, Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Philip Fisher, Charles Monger etc? All of them have made many mistakes before. If an investor makes 70% right decision and 30% wrong decision, to me he is still a great investor.

Posted by iska > 2013-02-14 22:03 | Report Abuse

hi kc, since there are so many prop stocks, and due of my lack of knowledge in the Kl mkt, I am looking to zero in only on the theme of Iskandar exposure. I believe Iskandar is just beginning to attract some attention in Singapore depsite the fact that a good number have started to buy properties there. However, the interest in Iskandar props among Singaporeans is still very nascent. Likewise, the interest in Bursa stocks exposed to the Iskandar story. I have quickly picked up the following counters with reasonably big exposure to Johor, or whose projects there may be more visible in the near future: Tebrau (the IWH IPO angle, large parcels fronting river), UEM (biggest land owner there), Dijaya (large land parcels there and Danga Bay exposure), Sunway (just bought huge pieces of land at Medini area), Mah Sing (increasing land bank there and with a project launch soon), WCT (building new shopping centre, hotel, apts at JB), E&O (JV with Temasek in wellness project), SP Setia (Johor accounts for more than 50% of sales), and KSL.

Wonder if anyone has anything to say abt these counters as I am so new to Bursa stocks i actually heard of many of these names only these couple of weeks. Will greatly appreciate if you could share your views on some of these counters. Thanks

Posted by tonylim > 2013-02-14 22:24 | Report Abuse

Where were you all this while?
St james harbor or invercargill

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-02-14 22:40 | Report Abuse

iska, your best property investing mate is no other than tonylim below your post. He is knowledgeable in property investment. I am not. Of course there are many others who are knowledgeable here. As far as Iskandar theme, I know only two big players, both of them have been researched by you, Tebrau and UEM. I don't trust their management, especially the later. I have traded (not invested) both of them before but I don't know much about them and don't own any now. Need updates. Welcome iska. I know you would be able to contribute constructively in i3investor. Make it a real i3investor forum, rather than i4speculator. The playing field needs to be leveled for the retail investors against the insiders and manipulators.

Posted by iska > 2013-02-14 22:58 | Report Abuse

kc, thanks. hi tonylim, i have been investing in singapore prop stocks over the past year, and many of these have gone up 50-100% in that time. recently, i tot i shd look at iskandar theme bcos Rowsley, a singapore stock, has been injected with a piece of land in JB for the devpt of hospital, apts and hotels. The price of the land injected in was taken as over M$900 psf. When I googled, i realised that many Msian developers were buying land from UEM or the pte mkt at below M$12-M$50 psf.

Of coz, plot ratio has to be taken into consideration, and i find that info is rather lacking and arbitrary in Johor. In singapore, it's much easier to calculate the value of prop companies becoz everything is out in the open, down to the plot ratio, what is meant to be built, GFA, etc. So it's much easier to analyse prop stocks on SGX.

i have only recently driven in to Iskandar and although prices there have surged, i think the story has yet to unfold more than 50%. many singaporeans are only beginning to look at properties in johor, and likewise, many stock investors do not even own a single Bursa stock. i reckon that when the more iconic buildings are slowly being put up, then the stock players will start to hunt for stocks with iskandar exposure on Bursa.

Shares of Rowsley has surged from about 10ct to 36ct before falling back to 31ct now. Players could be scouting for other Iskandar plays within SGX, but soon they will discover that the Bursa stocks can be gotten at much lower valuations.

Hence my focus on this particular theme among Bursa prop stocks. Looking at the charts, they do not appear late to me. just my impression, anyway.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-02-14 23:19 | Report Abuse

Iska, as a prop investor myself i have sideline for last 12mths.
My mates doing malaysian property is having a jolly good time recommending buys to sporeans.
There seems to be a surge in buying last 6 to 12 mths. Many singkies nearing retirement age would rather retire in Jb since rentals in spore has shot up.
Then there is this story about mrt extension right up to the shores of JB.

The ball game for Bursa property stocks is different. My best guide wld be to have a feel on the ground (wh require lots of leg work) of the property launches of the stocks in are putting yr money in.

I rely on maps bought from ho chin soon research n also my brokers for updates n recommendations.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-02-14 23:26 | Report Abuse

Iska, btw, at this level of property prices in spore isnt it inflationary n expensive to do biz in spore.

is it toppish now?

Posted by iska > 2013-02-15 08:03 | Report Abuse

tony, yes there is a surge in interest, but the figures of actual purchases are still very small, imo. many singaporeans still worry about safety in johor. i would say the first wave has started, but it's a very small wave compared to the potential final wave. yes, i am a very hands-on researcher in the prop mkt in singapore - going to showflats,calling agts, going to AGMs of prop companies n talking to directors, googling for all news related to the stocks i invest in, etc.
many investors steer away from sing prop stocks becos they kept thinking that the physical mkt was going to fall, but prices and sales volumes refused to fall. the main reasons - low interest rates, rising prices at the lowest end of the mkt(HDB) making prop owners at this thickest level feeling rich n getting into the prop game, underbuilding of HDB flats for a few years leading to shortage, and liberal immigration policy.
yes, i think the sing mkt shd u-turn this year after the 7th set of govt measures to cool it (it's the most drastic) as well as buyers exercising caution ahead of the glut of completions in 2015 (in fact 2014, if developers complete their flats earlier than forecast).
i think the visibility of sing companies'projects in johor and news flows on developments there over the coming months and years will raise the interest of singaporeans in iskandar projects and developers.
among the news flows will be:

1. Sg PM visiting iskandar on 18/2 for some groundbreaking(?) event at the Temasek-E&O-Johor govt project in Medini (Wellness village).
2. Launch for sale of Country Garden's Danga project in China at high prices.
3. Launch for sale of Peter Lim's JB medical city project in Singapore at super high prices.
4. Singapore's CapLand possible purchase of a whole island in Danga Bay as reported in some Msian papers (not in Sg news yet, as it could be pure rumor).
5. Launch for sale of iconic buildings in Johor in Singapore. For eg, the Meridin by Mah Sing.

I am still not sure how to invest in Msia stocks cheaply though. Also, my research on msia prop companies is ratch patchy at the moment. hence, i am unsure about recommending msian prop stocks to others in sg, including those who follow my writings in a singapore forum page.

while things look promising, i dont have the conviction yet. hence i have just nibbled here n there to have a feel of things. perhaps once i get a better gut feel, i will put more money in bursa prop stocks.

Posted by iska > 2013-02-15 08:12 | Report Abuse

tony, oh yes, the mrt extension finalisation news is prob one fo the most impt news, which will be released soon.

pte sg individuals and companies are already buying land from UEM or IWH, including the Tang family, a UOB family member, pte co like Link, etc.

So far, however, no listed prop company has made any major acquisition of land in johor (other than Rowsley which is more of an asset injection), and i see such a devpt as a catalyst for the blooming of the iskandar theme. The only Sg stock i know which has any land in johor under devpt is Low Keng Huat, but the land was acquired long time ago, and its foothold is due to its relationship with Msian co, General Corp Bhd.

So i am waiting for the likes of CapLand, or any full fledged prop company in singapore to buy sites in Johor for development. Sg developers put so much money in China, and if they could shift some of it to Iskandar (where they could find willing buyers from Singaporeans who are too scared to trust Msian develoopers) it would be the beginning of waves of interest in Iskandar, imo.

Posted by 1n1792 > 2013-02-15 13:45 | Report Abuse

Kcchong
Thanks a million for the explanation. I trade merely on technicals , hence rely heavily on all your fundamentals sharing. Thanks again.
Will look at L&G instead. But looking for cheaper entry

Posted by bryan_su > 2013-02-15 13:50 | Report Abuse

do miss dijacor? haha, buy call at 1.02...

Posted by bryan_su > 2013-02-15 15:57 | Report Abuse

today flying...

Posted by lmf_hau > 2013-02-15 16:38 | Report Abuse

L&G just begin the Engin , start flying , +3.5c , 41.5c now ....
its K-line pointing upwards, ..... good