Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-22 16:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by Desmond Liew > Mar 22, 2013 02:09 PM | Report Abuse
Hi kcchong,,, what is your opinion as per my example below:-
Majority people say Alam (case study only) has a TP RM1.10 & its current price is 0.93. During & after GE13, its price assumes to fall 20% to 0.744. After GE13, everything goes smooth, will the price go back to its 0.93 or in short, does the TP stii effective?

TP is a value provided by analysts, normally based on its latest earnings and then use an arbitrary PE ratio. Notice that they always change the PE ratio, often depending on the market condition to arrive at a TP which is normally close to the market price, to avoid to look stupid. They are just opinions. I personally don't place too much emphasis on those TP.

How come you know Alam's price going to fall by 20% during the GE? I don't have the faintest idea whether it will fall and goes back to 93 sen, or the arbitrary TP. sorry.

Posted by tptan45 > 2013-03-22 16:10 | Report Abuse

Don't predict the market.
Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-22 16:19 | Report Abuse

"Good DY proved is growing"? Or should it be a growing company only can give growing dividend? No strong balance sheet where got money to distribute dividend? Of course can also, borrow loh. Of course no good earnings and free cash flow but still give high dividend, then have to borrow more and hence shareholders "expose yr holding to overweight risk" loh.

One particular stock I like most which has been giving very good dividend is Pintaras Jaya, 21 sen last year. It has low liquidity also. Yeah "no securities house covering them as well". but look at its long and short term returns as tabulated below:

Pintaras 2.98 22/03/2013
Period 2-week 6-month 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year
Price 2.85 3.01 2.58 2.01 1.60 1.02 1.30
Return of stock 4.6% -1.0% 15.5% 48.3% 86.3% 192.2% 129.2%
CAR 219% -2.0% 15.5% 21.8% 23.0% 30.7% 18.0%

So what say you? Can you show a similar example of your case? High liquidity stock, a lot of analysts following it, hot stock trade like crazy everyday etc.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-22 16:30 | Report Abuse

unless u r reporting on a property company that recently (<36 months) started operate, there r DY history plus years of BS data for u to chew and chew

u don't know there are counters with appropriate liquidity with securities house support? aisey... btw, do u know how to calculate proper rate of liquidity in the first place? oopsss, sorry, of cos u knew, the 'undisputable' mah

sigh.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-22 16:44 | Report Abuse

Yeah I don't know. Show me the data you know. Proper rate of liquidity? What the hell is that? Yeah, I don't know how to "calculate" also. Please show me.

Hey you talk talk talk, never show anything one!

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-22 16:49 | Report Abuse

like what u did with those 'table'? that one can copy from internet, book, research reports tons & tons of such info out there

show u or teach u how to?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-22 16:52 | Report Abuse

So don't even know how to copy meh? Don't know how to read financial statements; don't know how to interpret financial statement; don't know even where to find; don't know how to copy also. Aiyah, what to say ah?

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-22 16:56 | Report Abuse

arr? what r u talking about? short circuit already? aisey... y so petty? relax lah... really don't know can teach u

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-22 17:05 | Report Abuse

Don't know what I am talking about? Let me be clear. You attacked me for what I have analyzed, with demeaning and degrading terms, without stopping. I asked you to substantiate, you can't. Of course you can't. Because like you said, no analysts follow them, hence nobody write about them. so where to find evidence I copy, BS etc? Tell you also, I haven't seen anybody provide a table of long-term and short-term return like that before. I did it all by myself. Of course you can't find evidence I copy. BS, of course you can't prove too. Because you don't even know whether i BS or not, because you don't even know how to read financial statements, not to say interpret them. Do valuation? I think it is like rocket science to you, though it is finance 101 for me. So how? Still want to attack me? Bring your horse over!

Posted by mansor80 > 2013-03-22 17:09 | Report Abuse

iafx.. can u teach me... iknow nothing + i'm new in Bursa... TQ

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 00:15 | Report Abuse

no such report exist??! oh... so u invent roe, u set financial guideline, only yr way is the only way to read fa statement. prove u wrong? no free lesson learnt for u, sorry lah

as u said, u don't like this u skip & move on, y busy body about it; later when ppl response back, u felt being "attack", so childish! yr comments r mostly ignored, but u think ppl run away... hahahaaa

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 07:40 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Mar 22, 2013 04:56 PM | Report Abuse
arr? what r u talking about? short circuit already? aisey... y so petty? relax lah... really don't know can teach u

This is the biggest joke I have read in i3! iafx offers to teach me finance and investment. Hahaha. From so many postings of iafx, anybody got a clue if this iafx knows anything about finance and investment, besides calling others Bullshit, copy and paste, conman, multi-identities without anything substantiation. When challenged, just disappeared. Yeah why ignored my challenge ah? No balls ah? I know lah, you know nuts about finance and investments. I have the feeling that your maths is also like shit.

Posted by skyland > 2013-03-23 08:39 | Report Abuse

ivory buy & hold

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 11:56 | Report Abuse

skyland, see we argued about Ivory. You ended right in the market price. But just be cautioned, Ivory's financial statements appear to be very ugly to me. Its management credibility is even worse. Good luck.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 16:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 22, 2013 04:44 PM | ReportAbuse

"Yeah I don't know. Show me the data you know. Proper rate of liquidity? What the hell is that? Yeah, I don't know how to "calculate" also. Please show me."

hahahahaaaaha..... angry bcos no one wanted to teach u? hahahaaaha... tau...fu...fa....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 16:19 | Report Abuse

Proper rate of liquidity? What the hell is that???????

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 16:24 | Report Abuse

"This is the biggest joke I have read in i3! iafx offers to teach me... "

y ask since u know EVERTHING, hahahaa... liquidity pun tak tau dare to keep attack other ppl. tak malu

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 16:28 | Report Abuse

liquidity of course I know, but not "proper rate of liquidity". What the hell is that? Rate of liquidity? What is that?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 16:31 | Report Abuse

Regarding your continuous harping of no liquidity, (not rate of liquidity), what do you think about what these investment gurus say about this subject?

"A perfect stock: The institutions don’t own it, and the analysts don’t follow it." Peter Lynch

Also see what Peter Lynch advised to avoid:
8. Being obsessed with liquidity
9. Avoid the hottest stock
10. Beware the next something
12. Beware the whisper stock

This is what Cold Eye said about high volume stocks, or hot stocks:
散户从来没有去想过，被炒家相中的，都是劣股。
蓝筹股的股价已经完全反映应有的价值，有些已经被高估。

Posted by yungshen1 > 2013-03-23 16:36 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz i read newspapar that saying knm assets per share is 1.200. now knm is it undervalue?
.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 16:39 | Report Abuse

Hey, have you prepared some kind of presentation how your hot liquid stocks covered by numerous analysts provide you with the 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, and 5 years total returns as well as the compounded annual growth rate of return? If you don't know how to compute, you can copy and paste from any book or internet websites. I am ok with that. I have presented mine.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 16:52 | Report Abuse

how r these gurus doing during the last slump? they should win big time since they r master in the domain, did they won during the crisis? r they even alerted in the first place; not to mention without printing $ to amplify the liquidity. but how to calculate proper rate of liquidity in the first point? see, u cannot even understand the q

u don't know is yr prob, given yr attitude, no one would teach u the real thing. as said, x off, am not interested to share anything with u.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:03 | Report Abuse

Peter Lynch made a compounded annual return for the Magellan Funds twenty something percent a year for about twenty years in the eighties and nineties. Cold Eye, a Malaysian reporter by profession became a multimillionaire by sticking to his investment principles. Cold Eye is still a multimillionaire after the "slump" you are talking about.

not interested to share anything with me? Or nothing to share at all because you just don't know how to fathom anything. Can show me the return of your hot liquid stock, their short and long-term return, plus their CAGR?

Rate of distance traveled is speed. If the direction is given, it is velocity. Rate of velocity is acceleration. What is rate of liquidity? Please explain!

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 17:05 | Report Abuse

simple CARx search yield 10k results fr google alone, let the readers judge for themselves

report does not exist? yeah right, sigh

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:09 | Report Abuse

what is CARx search? yield 10k results? On what? rate of liquidity?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:12 | Report Abuse

The Warren Buffet Way, The 12 Tenets
1. Is the business simple and understandable?
2. Does the business have a consistent operating history?
3. Does the business have a long-term prospect?
4. Is management rational?
5. Is management candid with shareholders?
6. Does management resist the institutional imperative?
7. Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share.
8. Calculate owners earnings (FCF) to get a true reflection of value
9. Look for companies with high profit margin
10. For every dollar retained, make sure the company has created at least one dollar of market value (FCF yield > WACC)
11. What is the value of the business?
12. Can the business be purchased at a significant discount to its value?


Warren Buffet also never say liquidity (ooop rate of liquidity) is a perquisite as an investment stock woh.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:17 | Report Abuse

Hey let us not deviate from your hot stock. Please response on below:

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 23, 2013 04:39 PM | Report Abuse X
Hey, have you prepared some kind of presentation how your hot liquid stocks covered by numerous analysts provide you with the 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, and 5 years total returns as well as the compounded annual growth rate of return? If you don't know how to compute, you can copy and paste from any book or internet websites. I am ok with that. I have presented mine.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 17:19 | Report Abuse

see, copied cat!

suggest u fast open a roti canai shop, u meet all the 12!!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:20 | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 23, 2013 05:17 PM | Report Abuse X

Hey let us not deviate from your hot stock. Please response on below:

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 23, 2013 04:39 PM | Report Abuse X
Hey, have you prepared some kind of presentation how your hot liquid stocks covered by numerous analysts provide you with the 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, and 5 years total returns as well as the compounded annual growth rate of return? If you don't know how to compute, you can copy and paste from any book or internet websites. I am ok with that. I have presented mine.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 17:28 | Report Abuse

go and ask cold eye, w.buffet, peter lah... hahahaa, y teach u? u already know EVERYTHING mah

"This is the biggest joke I have read in i3! iafx offers to teach me... "

tak malu lah...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Mar 23, 2013 05:05 PM | Report Abuse
simple CARx search yield 10k results fr google alone, let the readers judge for themselves
report does not exist? yeah right, sigh


I think I know what you were trying to say above. I asked you to provide the compounded annual return (CAR) of your hot stock with different time frames, you instead say what is so great about it as i copy and paste from internet. I said you can't because I prepare all the returns myself, specifically for Pintaras Jaya and others. You then say there, just Google you with find 10k results. Yes that word CARx. And then you said, see the "report does not exist? yeah right, sigh".

Now I am perfectly clear now. You just know nuts about investment, completely kosong! You just don't have a clue of what I have been talking about investment! No wonder when I challenge you, you "siam" here, "siam" there. I now i realize I am really wasting my time to argue with you, like somebody has advised me against it before.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:50 | Report Abuse

But actually if one doesn't know much of investment, it is ok one. Nobody knows everything, I repeat, nobody is expected to know everything. But if you don't know anything, don't simply go and attack others with all kind of demeaning words and degrading statements.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 17:52 | Report Abuse

u r the one said no such thing b4 u, now want to pusing?! copied cat, suggest u fast open a roti canai shop!!

" Tell you also, I haven't seen anybody provide a table of long-term and short-term return like that before."

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 17:52 | Report Abuse

Posted by yungshen1 > Mar 23, 2013 04:36 PM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz i read newspapar that saying knm assets per share is 1.200. now knm is it undervalue?
.

yungshen1, i have responded to your above statement in the knm thread.

Posted by Melvin G > 2013-03-23 17:53 | Report Abuse

Chill. No need to be so serious to all these guys. Have a great weekend kc!

Posted by gark > 2013-03-23 17:58 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz... relax lar. Lots of these 'kids' all lose money until 'gila' already. Ignore them lah, let them punt whatever they want, until they lose all their capital. It's hilarious looking at their reply trying very hard to pretend they have great financial knowledge.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-23 18:02 | Report Abuse

ya loh, only they start carry balls, suddenly they become professor. hahahaaaha...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-23 18:10 | Report Abuse

Melvin and gark, thanks for the kind words. You know what, I like blogging here in i3. Like how we share knowledge and argue with you gark. It enhances my knowledge and investing experience too. You know how satisfying is it like this yungshen1, he was shouting knm at this price and that price. But after I posted a few posts explaining to him the peril of punting in knm, how the books were cooked etc, how incredible the management is etc, he now see the light and actually thanks me. Not only him, a few more in Ivory thread and knm thread. They argued with me and I show them facts and figures. I have no hidden agenda at all. And you know what, they saw some light eventually and thank me. This is satisfying experience men.

But this iafx fellow is too much. He attacked me for bullshitting, copy and paste, conman etc. At first I thought this guy must have substance. If not how come he is so fierce. I challenged him but he "put char". But now I know he really knows nothing, absolutely nothing at all as shown in his last few postings. I cannot tahan him.

Posted by Melvin G > 2013-03-23 18:11 | Report Abuse

Lol Gark! "It's hilarious looking at their reply trying very hard to pretend they have great financial knowledge." Liked*

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-03-23 20:22 | Report Abuse

Kcchong, u buy warrant for under value stock also?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-24 02:37 | Report Abuse

steve, i do buy warrants for under value stock. In this case we are talking about company warrants which have long expiry date. You can convert the warrants to the underlying share before expiry. Co. warrants provide one with the leverage; ie you don't have to put in so much money in order to make the same gain as the underlying share. Or you can make more money with the same amount of investment. Take for example, if you buy Gamuda Wd 3-4 months ago at 95 sen, you would have made 25 sen, or 26% now at the price of 1.20; whereas Gamuda gained 55 sen, or 16% only. Be careful, the other way is also true. Leverage cuts both ways. Whatever it is, if you invest in co. warrants, you must be bullish about the underlying share price. There is some education material in warrants in the Bursa web. Plenty in the internet too.

I punt call warrant too. But the playing field here is not level. Not a good place to be.

Posted by Donpazac > 2013-03-24 07:49 | Report Abuse

@ kcchongnz. Like to read your comment a lot. Very informative and well supported with facts and figures. Also very well explained in simple terms that a non-financial person can easily understand. Salute your patience too!

Well done man. Keep it up!

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-24 09:17 | Report Abuse

what a naive piece of taufu, sigh, every post must b "attack" him!?

watchout for posts trying very hard to hard sell counter like pleni, kfima, ptaras. wrote in long story, in format "no one does it b4 me", omg... hahaaahaha

choice is yrs, becareful & good luck!

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-03-24 21:06 | Report Abuse

Kcchong, ya but isnt warrant high risk also?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-25 10:23 | Report Abuse

[Co. warrants provide one with the leverage; ie you don't have to put in so much money in order to make the same gain as the underlying share. Or you can make more money with the same amount of investment.]

steve, it depends on individual, whether you use warrants as a financial risk management tool or a gambling tool. As a financial risk management tool, you use small upfront of money and hope to make the same amount of money if you were to buy the underlying share. As a gambling tool, you use the same amount of money to buy warrants, instead of buying the underlying share, hoping to make a lot more money. This is due to the leverage of this financial instrument.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-25 10:25 | Report Abuse

Why did I said it is a financial risk management tool? Because if you use small amount of money to hope to win the same amount of money if you were to buy the underlying share, the most you lose is your initial outlay.

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-03-25 13:09 | Report Abuse

ya, i think usually people buy warrant don't really use it. means they usually sell before it expired. Maybe no money to buy those shares after expired kua. hehe..

Posted by pyramidpoh > 2013-03-28 08:29 | Report Abuse

Property stocks are usually very good stocks why our property stocks in Malaysia are performed so lousy.Take example Plenitude Bhd EPS so high NTA RM3.13.I don't know why so many years no dividends are paid.It also hadn't any debts to the Banks and also has strong cash flow.Kcchongnz can you analyze to me?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-28 08:48 | Report Abuse

pyramidpoh,
I have given my analysis on Plenitude a few times before. No, its business is not performing lousily. It is good. You may say its share price is not performing well, short-term recently.

Who says Plenitude did not pay dividend so many years? Below is the record of its dividend payment.

Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Dividend, sen 5.0 7.5 7.5 6.75 6.75 5.75 5.0

I would say the dividend payment is not satisfactory in relation to its earnings and free cash flow. They have the ability to pay much more. It is a cash backing of 1.36 per share. Look at its free cash flow below:

Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
FCF 25691 39040 107625 132749 94145
FCF/Share, sen 9.5 14.5 39.9 49.2 34.9

That shows its great ability to pay much more dividend. Why they don't pay more? Go to their AGM and question them.

Posted by iafx > 2013-03-28 09:37 | Report Abuse

to hold a prop counter for long, pick those with proven DY history, try not rely fully on large pile of $/lands (so call 'strong bs', 'undervalued'), these value on paper cheer u, make bank happy, give prop buyer confident... too bad nothing come to yr pocket as real $

of cos, at the end of the day, u punya suka lah :)