Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:21 | Report Abuse

Always be prepared for the worst

A stock market is a place where nothing is certain. So always be prepared for the worst.

Many tragedies can happen overnight that can destroy your capital. Problems don’t give any warning before coming.

Always save some funds for emergencies and never expose your full capital in any investment option.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:23 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:25 | Report Abuse

Don’t invest in a company whose business you don’t understand

Many people invest their money just by hearing anything good about the particular company from others.

By understanding the business, you can determine if there will be any associated financial problems in the future.

There are many companies in the stock market whose business can be understood by any normal people.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:26 | Report Abuse

Think like an owner

Thinking like an owner changes your whole perspective on stock investing.

Warren Buffett says if you are going to own a new car, you will think about its fair valuation, you will think about its features and you will compare it with cars offered by other manufacturers from the same segment. Then after checking everything, you will decide which one to buy.

Likewise, you should have the same perspective with stocks.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:28 | Report Abuse

Avoid Borrowing

You can buy anything by taking loans and borrowing money, but you become rich by living on borrowed money. People initially think that they can manage their debts but not everyone can do so. One needs to have a solid plan to pay the debt back and not become its lifetime slave.

A debt-free life is the best life.

Warren Buffett says I’ve seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage – leverage being borrowed money.

You really don’t need leverage in this world much.

If you’re smart, you’re going to make a lot of money without borrowing.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 08:30 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-20 14:07 | Report Abuse

>>>
October 22, 2015, 02:46:34 PM
What do you think of ---g?

2010 NP: 11,568
2011 NP: 25,148
2012 NP: 52,953
2013 NP: 70,472
2014 NP: 82,166
2015 NP: 110,557
TTM NP: 119,209

EPS: RM0.45
NTA: RM1.99
ROE: 22.5%
Dividend: RM0.13
Dividend Yield: 0.13/1.87 = 7%

Yes property market is slumping but ---g is targeting the affordable housing market. Demand should be sustainable.

:) :thumbsup: :handshake: :cash:

>>>



My friends did point this counter out the last year to me.

However, it is not within my circle of competence to analyse it.

Perhaps, you should look at its FCF/Price over the last 5 years to get a feel of this company's performance to see how good its business has been.


One of the problem with analysing stocks is when the price of the company is very low, the ratios (including the DY) look very enticing indeed.

Focus more on the business quality for ---g.

Development tends to be cyclical. The property sector is presently in a downtrend.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 06:43 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 11:58 | Report Abuse

THURSDAY, 30 APRIL 2009

The Thought Process Is What Counts

In value investing, it really is the thought that counts. The thought process is important. This is how you think about your investments and investment decisions. Analysis doesn't decide for you; it only serves to support the thinking behind the choices you make.

There are many analytical blocks and approaches to appraising company value and many ways to decide whether the price paid for that value is right. These are evident in the postings in this blog. However, it is repeatedly obvious that no single method works all the time, and if one did, everyone would make the same findings and buy the same companies and values would no longer be values. Every article, every book, every value investor has a unique application of the vlaue investing thought process.

The thought process is the intellectual process - the philosophy - that the value investor internalizes. The tools are there to help, and different tools will help more at different times. If you strive to understand the business value underlying the price before you buy, investing history will be on your side. As you get good at understanding value and price, your investment decisions and performance will only improve.

In the real, practical world of value investing, value comes in many forms. There is so much detail on any given company (much of which you can't know) that it often isn't realistic to become a walking encyclopedia on a company or its fundamentals. And formulas and ratios, although they work and can help, hardly can deliver absolute answers. Usually, taking a few shortcuts makes sense, reserving the deepest analysis to the most critical, difficult and largest investing decisions.

As a practical matter, the so-called Pareto principle, also called the 80-20 rule, applies to investing as it does in much of business: 80 percent of the picture comes from 20 percent of the questions you may ask or facts you may collect about a business. If you focus on most critical aspects of a given business, you'll get most of the picture, without digging up 100 percent of everything about it. If this weren't the case, you'd spend six months analyzing each investment.

You can't spend days on each company and you can't analyze all companies in the investing universe. A simplified, practical approach will help the new value investor get started, and will also help experienced value investors improve their game. You'll undoubtedly find yourself adding plays to your value investing playbook as you gain experience. And you'll also get better at finding that 20 percent that's really important.


Famed fund manager Peter Lynch, in his famous book, One Up on Wall Street, shared this wisdom: "Once you're able to tell the story of a stock to your family, your friends or the dog, and so that even a child could understand it, then you have a proper grasp of the situation."



http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/04/thought-process-is-what-counts.html

Posted by Foker > 2019-01-21 12:10 |

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Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-21 12:18 | Report Abuse

thank you mr.3eye

i sense your wisdom...

btw, u working for IB?

lol

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-21 13:54 | Report Abuse

3iii, I found my investment strategy already

All the kinks had been ironed out

I now have a workable solution for generating sustainable portfolio return indefinitely

Because of that, I officially announce the demise and irrelevance of your investment strategy. It is too austere, inflexible and unsuitable for Malaysia stocks (99.99% do not have moat)

Warren Buffett will die in Malaysia. His stuffs don’t work here. You better follow mine.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 16:25 | Report Abuse

SUMMARIZING THE WEAKNESSES & KEY TAKEAWAY OF 3iii & Mr Long ;

"People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!"


Based on Hengyuan situation what are the lessons we can learn from there leh ??

Lessons

Pls do not trust growth in EPS and low PE so much loh...!! Earnings can unexpected collapse very fast anytime loh...!!

The margin of safety based on Earnings and growth is very volatile like the case of Hengyuan PE 5x v Nestle 50x and Ql 50x, in addition Hengyuan growth 200% v Nestle & Ql growth less than 20%....u thought Hengyuan got very big fat margin of safety based on earnings and growth...but this type of margin of safety based on earnings can collapse and disappear very fast loh...!!

In fact this condition of collapse again confirmed by the recent collapse of padini and topglove, share price fall drastically recently bcos of earnings disappointment again mah...!!

So do not listen to conman 3iii asking u all to buy NESTLE Pe 50x or high growth stock at lofty valuation....anytime the earnings can collapse very fast without warnings like what happen to hengyuan, topglove and padini loh...!!

Thats the reason why Ben Graham in the intelligent investor book, do not give too much emphasis on investment based on margin of safety using earnings based on profitability and growth route, but he prefer to use margin of safety based on huge discount on tangible assets and huge cash liquidity of the company with the huge share price discount bcos this tenet is less volatile & tangible and esy to employ loh...!!

It is not that u cannot invest based on growth and earnings route, in fact raider would encourage u do it bcos it is highly profitable loh...anyhow if u invested in hengyuan earlier, u will had made a huge profit unseen for many years, but u must act smart & be prepare to lari kuat kuat loh...!!

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Raider is right to advice u to lari kuat kuat on hengyuan...in fact everyone should learn how to lari kuat kuat ....when condition & environment does not look right mah...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-21 16:46 | Report Abuse

(Icon) What Is Investing ?
Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Sun, 20 Jan 2019, 02:42 PM

On 23 December 2015, I wrote that investing involves holding on to stocks for long term to enjoy compounded return, other stock market activities are at best "trading".

However, recently I have been reading extensively about Investment Gurus' works. One thing that shock me is that very few of them actually hold stocks forever. Contrarian investor John Neff sold his stock within months if they registered good return. Even Joel Greenblatt (KC Chong's favourite) also indulged in short term activities.

As long as can make money with proper consideration of risk, it is valid. No need to hold long, long term only to be considered legitimate.

I hereby declare :
"Investing should not be defined only as picking good stocks and holding forever to enjoy compounded return. Buying an overlooked stock to wait for market to rectify mispricing and hence provides opportunity to cash out, is also considered investing. Even if it happens within few months.

Short term activities should not be automatically frowned upon. Anything bought based on careful evaluation of value and proper reasoning, and in the event that things turn sour, can be held until recovery, is considered investing.

Holding period is totally irrelevant."

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT BEN GRAHAM SAYS MAH..U BUY CHEAP WITH BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY AND HOLD ON TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET MAH, WHEN THE SECURITIES RERATE AND GO UP TO THE REASONABLE FAIR VALUE AS MR MARKET BECAME OPTIMISTIC, U SELL MAH....!!

MR GRAHAM, HAVE NEVER ENCOURAGE TO HOLD ON FOREVER MAH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-23 01:00 | Report Abuse

Put it this way loh...3iii continue to bad mouth ben graham margin of safety, despite warren buffet highly respect ben graham mah...!!

U look at Insas criteria...it exactly fall into Ben graham investment criteria mah...!!

Sslee selection of insas is a very fine safe selection mah....although not type of growth stock....it is huge undervalue stock mah...!!

For growth stock ur expectation is to continue growth to sustain the share price whereas for undervalue stock, what u need is just a rerating of confidence that will push the stock price up to reach a reasonable value from highly undervalue mah...!!

Insas is a profitable co, huge cash holding, pays reasonable div, huge discount to nta, all these is highly positive factors for rerating criteria loh...!!

3iii has been acting wrongly to deceive a safety investor like ssleee loh...scaring him like he will lose his family & wealth mah...!!

In fact, if sslee will to change his system, like buying into QL or Nestle, raider think the risk is even higher bcos he is chasing overvaluation loh..!!

Remember sslee investment value investment approach, that people like 3iii and Mr Long thought it is short term trading but it is a genuine investment using share valuation to take advantage of Mr Market folly mah..!!
In fact Warren Buffet has been using this method for a long time successfully loh....!!

Buffet change to long term hold of late, bcos his fund has grown too big mah..!
I read one of buffet comment, he can even get higher return, if he does not manage such a large funds loh...!!

Meaning if he use his old ways of investment based on margin of safety, he can even get even higher return loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-23 06:04 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-23 06:10 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-23 06:16 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

How to invest for the long game, without losing your shoes.
Author: 10154899906070843 | Publish date: Fri, 4 Jan 2019

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-23 07:35 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-24 07:49 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-24 08:32 | Report Abuse

Quality investing is an investment strategy based on a set of clearly defined fundamental criteria that seeks to identify companies with outstanding quality characteristics.

The quality assessment is made based on
- soft (e.g. management credibility) [QUALITATIVE FACTORS] and
- hard criteria (e.g. balance sheet stability). [QUANTITATIVE FACTORS]

Quality investing supports best overall rather than best-in-class approach.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-24 08:32 | Report Abuse

Benjamin Graham, the founding father of value investing, was the first to recognize the quality problem among equities back in the 1930s.
- Graham classified stocks as either Quality or Low Quality.
- He also observed that the greatest losses result not from buying quality at an excessively high price, but from buying Low Quality at a price that seems good value.

Warren Buffett said that one wants to buy companies that can be run by idiots, because some day they will be.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-24 22:44 | Report Abuse

Company A grew earnings from 1.0 to 11.4 over 6 years, and was trading at PE of 40 in year 0. [Growth investing]

Company B grew earnings from 1.0 to 1.8 over 6 years, and was trading at PE of 15 in year 0. [Value investing]

At year 6, based on the price paid at year 0, the buyer would have paid 3.5x for $1 earnings of company A in year 6 and 8.5x for $1 earnings of company B in year 6.


Lessons:

Growth has its values. The company with the greater earning power or growth enjoys a higher multiple.

Even at the higher multiple at year 0, company A turned out to be the better buy at year 6.

"It is better to own a great company at fair price than a fair company at great price." Warren Buffett. :thumbsup:


I love good quality growth companies - these are the best companies to own in your portfolio, just do not overpay to own them.


http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,70250.msg1391379.html#msg1391379

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-24 22:48 | Report Abuse

If you hope to live off dividends one day, you need stocks that:

- Provide a healthy dividend from day one. :thumbsup:
- Grow their dividend over time. :thumbsup:
- Grow their income over time (so they can keep up with their dividend and provide you with capital growth at the same time). :thumbsup:


:thumbsup:

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-24 22:49 | Report Abuse

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,70250.msg1391386.html#msg1391386



Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world.

ALWAYS reinvest your dividends. Always, no exception. :cash:

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-24 22:53 | Report Abuse

The company distributed growing dividends over the years.
Dividends were not reinvested into the same company.


This chart stresss the wonderful return of a company giving growing dividends.

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,70250.msg1391236.html#msg1391236

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-24 23:02 | Report Abuse

y Icon8888 > Jan 21, 2019 01:54 PM | Report Abuse

3iii, I found my investment strategy already

All the kinks had been ironed out

I now have a workable solution for generating sustainable portfolio return indefinitely

Because of that, I officially announce the demise and irrelevance of your investment strategy. It is too austere, inflexible and unsuitable for Malaysia stocks (99.99% do not have moat)

Warren Buffett will die in Malaysia. His stuffs don’t work here. You better follow mine.
==========

fine... found your strategy....next time you find some thing worth 20% of your portfolio, let me know.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-24 23:03 | Report Abuse

1 or 2% of portfolio don't count.....

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 11:13 | Report Abuse

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/why-i-usually-avoid-ipos.html

FRIDAY, 29 JANUARY 2010

Why I usually avoid IPOs

I browsed the local paper for those stocks priced closest to the year low. There were 35 stocks listed: 29 derivatives (warrant) and 6 non-derivatives (mother share). Stemlife was in this list.





This company was listed with much hype in 2006. Its revenue grew quickly in this virgin medical sector. Those uninformed customers and investors saw "unlimited" potentials from this new medical technology. The business model was not one with durable competitiveness. With new competitors in the market, I can foresee this company's business will be challenging.

Listing in 2006 was the right timing as the stock was chased up to a high level during the bull market then. At the peak market price of more than MR 6 in 2007, its market cap was almost MR 900 million. It was not surprising that a significant large investor (insider) sold when the price was close to its peak; making a huge profit from the shares, locking in many years of future profits that the company can hope to generate through its business.

At 45 sen per share, its present market cap is MR 74.3 million. What is its intrinsic value? Interestingly, more major investors sold and exited the company recently.

This is a good company to study as it provides a lot of education on how to select the stocks you wish to invest into. In general, it is better to avoid IPOs. IPOs are never priced cheap. You can always let them build their business for a few years. Given the track record you can then assess the business fundamentals with more certainties, before you invest.

Some simple rules I follow:

A good company can be a good investment at fair price or bargain price.
A good company may be a bad investment if you overpay.
Avoid a lousy company at any price.


http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/changes_in_s_holding/index.jsp




Insiders selling in huge volumes this January, desperate to unload
.
STEMLIFE BERHAD (ACE Market)
====19/01/2010 Notice of Person Ceasing (29C) - The Goldman Sachs International
====19/01/2010 Notice of Person Ceasing (29C) - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
====19/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - The Goldman Sachs International
Disposed 12/01/2010 5,706,000
====19/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
====18/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - BERJAYA GROUP BERHAD
Disposed 14/01/2010 4,050,000
====18/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - BERJAYA CORPORATION BERHAD
====18/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - JUARA SEJATI SDN BHD
====18/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - TAN SRI DATO' SERI VINCENT TAN CHEE YIOUN
====18/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - HOTEL RESORT ENTERPRISE SDN BHD
====13/01/2010 Notice of Person Ceasing (29C) - HSC HEALTHCARE SDN BHD
====13/01/2010 Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - HSC HEALTHCARE SDN BHD
Disposed 11/01/2010 10,000,000

Posted by stockmanmy > 2019-01-25 11:48 | Report Abuse

new is sexy and high casualty risk.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 15:10 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-25 15:11 | Report Abuse

Shouldn't retail investors be wary of IPOs?

Legendary investor Warren Buffett is wary of IPOs. Shouldn’t retail investors walk his path?


“It’s almost a mathematical impossibility to imagine that, out of the thousands of things for sale on a given day, the most attractively priced is the one being sold by a knowledgeable seller to a less-knowledgeable buyer,” Buffett reportedly said on IPOs.


----


But why did majority of the IPOs fail to deliver? The usual answer from the companies and bankers will be “that’s the way market is”.Although there’s no single reason, a dominant one is the pricing as sellers try to get the maximum, which, at times may be even higher than their traded peers by sugar-coating prospects. Broadly speaking, the companies that debuted with high valuations compared to their listed peers failed miserably.


----


Most of the IPOs failed to deliver simply because they were priced too aggressively. Besides the company specific reasons, the common factor among them was their high price to earnings (P/E) multiple that they were asking.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-25 15:33 | Report Abuse

a loaded dice, like call warrants.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-26 15:56 | Report Abuse

There are many different types of stock picking strategies.

Some of the most common include:
Fundamental Analysis,
Qualitative Analysis,
Value Investing,
Growth Investing,
GARP Investing,
Income Investing,
CAN SLIM,
Dogs of the Dow and
Technical Analysis.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-26 15:58 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-26 16:11 | Report Abuse

The most important thing when it comes to your investments isn't looking or sounding smart, but actually being smart.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-26 16:15 | Report Abuse

The musang without its tail is smartest today. :-)