Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-12 17:48 | Report Abuse

When the overall market valuation is high, and everything else is rising, those dropping and appearing in the deep-bargain screener probably deserved to be traded by low valuations.

Their stock prices were likely low for the right reasons, and buying these would likely have resulted in deep losses.

Therefore, when it comes to deep-value investing, investors need to be cautious and aware of this approach's inherent problems.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-12 17:49 | Report Abuse

As most O&G stocks like Carimin, Naim, Dayang & Penergy have gone up 100% to 200% from its lows Raider has unearthed another Great O&G Stock yet to run up

That Stock is Sapnrg.

At Its early days of IPO (2013 to 2014) Sapnrg O&G Was As High As Rm7.00

But in Year 2014 Due to Brent Crude Oil price crashed to a low of USD27 Petronas cut down from 39 Oil Rigs to only 14 Oil Rigs

As a result Sapnrg 0&G business contracted & its share price collapsed all the way till now (Sapnrg was later sold to Amanah Saham Bumi)

AND NOW THESE ARE SOME VERY GOOD TURNING POINTS FOR Sapnrg

1) PETRONAS HAS INCREASED UPSTREAM EXPENSE FROM RM11.5 BILLIONS (2018) TO RM15 BILLIONS (2019) THIS YEAR

That means that there will be EXTRA 30% CASH INFUSION INTO UPSTREAM O&G ACTIVITIES

CARIMIN, DAYANG, PENERGY, BINTULU PORT HAVE SEEN INCREASING REVENUES DUE TO O&G ACTIVITIES FOR YEAR 2018. AND GOING INTO YEAR 2019 IT WILL SEE EVEN MORE ACTIVITIES

All Due to these Factors

2)) Brent Crude Price has gone back up above USD65.00 per barrel

SO IT IS VIABLE TO EXTRACT MORE OIL

3) Govt wants more Dividend from Petronas (Currently Petronas gave Rm24 Billions usual dividend PLUS A Special Dividends of RM30 Billions = Total Rm54 BILLIONS)

4) RAPID REFINERY In Completion also require EXTRA 54.7 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE YEARLY
So all these Converging Factors Have Fired Up O&G Stocks

5) Sapuranrg HAS RECEIVED 6 JOB AWARDS SINCE YEAR 2018

Making a Very Good Track Record of securing over Rm 5 Billion Ringgit Revenue for Year 2018 & 2019
And More Jobs going into Year 2019 as PETRONAS IS STEPPING UP OIL EXPLORATION.
At the moment sapnrg got rm 16 billion order books in hand.

6) SEEING SUCH GOOD PROSPECTS PNB BUMI HAS BOUGHT More sapnrg raising their stake from 12% to 48% injecting about Rm 2 billion loh...!!

7) ALTHOUGH Sapnrg HAS 16 BILLION SHARES ITS TOP 30 HOLDERS ARE AMANAH SAHAM BUMI, PNB & TOP LOCAL & FOREIGN FUNDS
80% ARE OWNED BY THESE STRONG HOLDERS.
Only 4 billion shares are in freefloat.

8) SINCE PENERGY, CARIMIN & DAYANG HAVE ALREADY RUN UP SO MUCH IN PRICE IT IS A WISE STRATEGY TO TAKE SOME PROFITS IN THESE & BUY SOME LAGGARD Sapnrg.

9) Sapnrg COULD BE ANOTHER DAYANG OR A HIDDEN GEM...raider has estimated it overtake Pchem mkt capitalization in 3 yrs time loh..!!

10) JUST LIKE NAIM WAS SOLD DOWN TO 45 SEN AFTER CAPITAL EXERCISE Sapnrg HAS ALSO BEEN SOLD DOWN TO ONLY 23.5 SEN (DUE TO CAPITAL EXERCISE RECENTLY)

Share just like NAIM AT 50 SEN. NAIM REACHED RM1.00 FOR 100% UPSIDE RECENTLY

SO Sapnrg IS NOW 32 SEN

WHAT IS THE TARGET PRICE FOR Sapnrg?

Raider HAS A 3 YEAR TARGET PRICE FOR Sapnrg AT RM 3.00 loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-12 17:53 | Report Abuse

This man has a very big troll-ey. Please don't pollute this thread.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-12 17:56 | Report Abuse

I heard my big name mention here mah...!!

Where got pollute leh ??

Please refer below loh...!!

Deep Value Investing has its Inherent Problems. Just ask Calvin and Raider.

Posted by 3iii > Mar 12, 2019 05:53 PM | Report Abuse

This man has a very big troll-ey. Please don't pollute this thread.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-12 18:06 | Report Abuse

The problem with deep value investing

"Cigar-butt investing"

This was coined by Buffett for the strategy of buying mediocre businesses at prices that are much lower than the companies' net asset values.

He said the approach is like "a cigar butt found on the street that has only one puff left in it and may not offer much of a smoke, but the "bargain purchase" will make that puff all profit."

There are several problems with this approach.

1. Erosion of value over time.

Mediocre businesses do not create value for their shareholders; instead, they destroy business value over time.

The value of the business can decline and the initial margin of safety may gradually shrink, even if the stock price doesn't go up.

Investors need to be lucky enough to have the stock prices rise in time and sell before prices drop again following the intrinsic value of the business.

"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre." Buffett wrote in his 1989 shareholder letter.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-12 20:04 | Report Abuse

The problem with deep value investing

2. Timing and Pain

Buy these bargain portfolios when you can find plenty of them, but if the broad market is in quick decline, like in 2008, the bargain portfolio will be very likely to lose much more than the general market.

If the decline lasts longer, many of the companies in the portfolio may suffer steeper operating losses and may even go out of business.

It is much more painful to hold such a portfolio in bad times, as anyone who owns these stocks during bear markets or recessions will attest - and lose much sleep over.

Because of the quick erosion of business value, selling the deep-asset bargains quickly is key, even if stock prices do not appreciate. The biggest profits are usually achieved within the first 12 months.

"If you buy something because it is undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. That's hard." (Charlie Munger.)

Buffett likens buying mediocre businesses at deep bargain prices for a quick profit to dating without the intent of getting married. In that situation, it is essential to end the courtship at the right time and before the relationship turns sour.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-12 20:08 | Report Abuse

U do not need to wait for fully fairly value mah...!!

U need leave something on the table for the other guy to make say 20% to 40% mah....!!

Do not be too greedy loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Mar 12, 2019 06:06 PM | Report Abuse

The problem with deep value investing

"Cigar-butt investing"

This was coined by Buffett for the strategy of buying mediocre businesses at prices that are much lower than the companies' net asset values.

He said the approach is like "a cigar butt found on the street that has only one puff left in it and may not offer much of a smoke, but the "bargain purchase" will make that puff all profit."

There are several problems with this approach.

1. Erosion of value over time.

Mediocre businesses do not create value for their shareholders; instead, they destroy business value over time.

The value of the business can decline and the initial margin of safety may gradually shrink, even if the stock price doesn't go up.

Investors need to be lucky enough to have the stock prices rise in time and sell before prices drop again following the intrinsic value of the business.

"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre." Buffett wrote in his 1989 shareholder letter.


3iii
5279 posts
Posted by 3iii > Mar 12, 2019 08:04 PM | Report Abuse

The problem with deep value investing

2. Timing and Pain

Buy these bargain portfolios when you can find plenty of them, but if the broad market is in quick decline, like in 2008, the bargain portfolio will be very likely to lose much more than the general market.

If the decline lasts longer, many of the companies in the portfolio may suffer steeper operating losses and may even go out of business.

It is much more painful to hold such a portfolio in bad times, as anyone who owns these stocks during bear markets or recessions will attest - and lose much sleep over.

Because of the quick erosion of business value, selling the deep-asset bargains quickly is key, even if stock prices do not appreciate. The biggest profits are usually achieved within the first 12 months.

"If you buy something because it is undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. That's hard." (Charlie Munger.)

Buffett likens buying mediocre businesses at deep bargain prices for a quick profit to dating without the intent of getting married. In that situation, it is essential to end the courtship at the right time and before the relationship turns sour.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 13:15 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 13:17 | Report Abuse

The problem with deep value investing

4. Tax Inefficiency

Because of the short holding time, any gain from the portfolio is subject to the same tax rate as the investor's income tax (for U.S. investors, unless it is in a retirement account.)

This drastically reduces the overall return over the long term.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 13:19 | Report Abuse

If buying mediocre businesses at deep bargain prices for a quick profit is like a date without the intent of getting married, buying them and getting involved long term is like a marriage without love. A lot of other things need to be right to work things out, and it will never be a happy marriage.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 13:22 | Report Abuse

Important Notes on Deep-Asset Bargains strategy


Though buying deep-asset bargains can be very profitable, this strategy comes with its inherent problems.

- This strategy comes with a much higher mental cost to investors.

- More importantly, business deterioration and the erosion of value put investors in a riskier position.

- As a result, they need to strictly follow the rules of maintaining a diversified portfolio and selling within 12 months whether investments worked out or not.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 13:27 | Report Abuse

Ask yourself:

Why would you, as an investor, want to get involved in this mess (a deep-asset-bargain) and witness things deteriorating, hoping the situation will improve?

Even if it works out eventually, which is very unlikely (in the majority), the mental and psychological drain is simply not worth it.

There are better ways to make money.

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Buy Only Good Companies!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-13 13:30 | Report Abuse

Here raider philip no agree with you lo...... buy INSAS not good meh? I dont forget about INSAS mah... stoneraider say it is best stock of 2019, but now he say Sapura going to be 70 billion company in 3 years...

How leh, deep deep investing is good mah..

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 13:37 | Report Abuse

"Bargain-purchase folly."


Instead of buying companies with deteriorating values on the cheap and hoping things will improve, why not buy companies that grow value over time?

Warren Buffett summarized in a single sentence the priceless lessons he learned from his personal "bargain-purchase folly".



"It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-13 16:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 18:02 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 13, 2019 01:30 PM | Report Abuse

Here raider philip no agree with you lo...... buy INSAS not good meh? I dont forget about INSAS mah... stoneraider say it is best stock of 2019, but now he say Sapura going to be 70 billion company in 3 years...

How leh, deep deep investing is good mah..

>>>


Poor raider. Never learn from his weaknesses and mistakes.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-13 18:03 | Report Abuse

raid is an internet troll

unemployed and unemployable.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-13 18:08 | Report Abuse

This Philip fellow also no brain loh....!!

Raider say buy Sapnrg does not mean raider no love insas anymore mah...!!

Just like Philip also have QL, Yinson, Pchem, Topglove etc...certainly we are not asking too much to love insas as well as Sapnrg mah...!!

I don understand why 3iii can be as bodoh as Philip leh ??

Posted by 3iii > Mar 13, 2019 06:02 PM | Report Abuse
>>>
Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 13, 2019 01:30 PM | Report Abuse

Here raider philip no agree with you lo...... buy INSAS not good meh? I dont forget about INSAS mah... stoneraider say it is best stock of 2019, but now he say Sapura going to be 70 billion company in 3 years...

How leh, deep deep investing is good mah..

Poor raider. Never learn from his weaknesses and mistakes.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-13 23:40 | Report Abuse

Even if deep bargains exist among marginal businesses, investors should ignore these and instead pay attention to good companies. Good companies are what we want to buy, even if they don’t look like a steal.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-13 23:49 | Report Abuse

THATS IS A FALLACY LOH....PEOPLE CHASE SHARE OVERPAY....SHARE PRICE CRASH....THEN LOSE MONIES LOH....!!

VALUE INVESTOR DIFFERENT WILL CHASE WHEN THERE IS A BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY THAT GIVE US SUBSTANTIAL RETURN LOH...!!

FOR EXAMPLE SAPNRG NOW RM 0.34 WITH BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY SHOULD CHASE LOH...!!


Don forget SAPNRG is an integrated mini petronas....thats why PNB are so bullish and willing to dump in huge monies increasing their stake from 12% to 48% loh...!!

PNB don have to do that, unless they are highly confident on this stock loh...!!

As most O&G stocks like Carimin, Naim, Dayang & Penergy have gone up 100% to 200% from its lows Raider has unearthed another Great O&G Stock yet to run up

That Stock is Sapnrg.

At Its early days of IPO (2013 to 2014) Sapnrg O&G Was As High As Rm7.00

But in Year 2014 Due to Brent Crude Oil price crashed to a low of USD27 Petronas cut down from 39 Oil Rigs to only 14 Oil Rigs

As a result Sapnrg 0&G business contracted & its share price collapsed all the way till now (Sapnrg was later sold to Amanah Saham Bumi)

AND NOW THESE ARE SOME VERY GOOD TURNING POINTS FOR Sapnrg

1) PETRONAS HAS INCREASED UPSTREAM EXPENSE FROM RM11.5 BILLIONS (2018) TO RM15 BILLIONS (2019) THIS YEAR

That means that there will be EXTRA 30% CASH INFUSION INTO UPSTREAM O&G ACTIVITIES

CARIMIN, DAYANG, PENERGY, BINTULU PORT HAVE SEEN INCREASING REVENUES DUE TO O&G ACTIVITIES FOR YEAR 2018. AND GOING INTO YEAR 2019 IT WILL SEE EVEN MORE ACTIVITIES

All Due to these Factors

2)) Brent Crude Price has gone back up above USD65.00 per barrel

SO IT IS VIABLE TO EXTRACT MORE OIL

3) Govt wants more Dividend from Petronas (Currently Petronas gave Rm24 Billions usual dividend PLUS A Special Dividends of RM30 Billions = Total Rm54 BILLIONS)

4) RAPID REFINERY In Completion also require EXTRA 54.7 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE YEARLY
So all these Converging Factors Have Fired Up O&G Stocks

5) Sapuranrg HAS RECEIVED 6 JOB AWARDS SINCE YEAR 2018

Making a Very Good Track Record of securing over Rm 5 Billion Ringgit Revenue for Year 2018 & 2019
And More Jobs going into Year 2019 as PETRONAS IS STEPPING UP OIL EXPLORATION.
At the moment sapnrg got rm 19 billion order books in hand.

6) SEEING SUCH GOOD PROSPECTS PNB HAS BOUGHT More sapnrg raising their stake from 12% to 48% injecting about Rm 2 billion loh...!!

7) ALTHOUGH Sapnrg HAS 16 BILLION SHARES ITS TOP 30 HOLDERS ARE AMANAH SAHAM BUMI, PNB & TOP LOCAL & FOREIGN FUNDS
80% ARE OWNED BY THESE STRONG HOLDERS.
Only 4 billion shares are in freefloat.

8) SINCE PENERGY, CARIMIN & DAYANG HAVE ALREADY RUN UP SO MUCH IN PRICE IT IS A WISE STRATEGY TO TAKE SOME PROFITS IN THESE & BUY SOME LAGGARD Sapnrg.

9) Sapnrg COULD BE ANOTHER DAYANG OR A HIDDEN GEM...raider has estimated it overtake Pchem mkt capitalization in 3 yrs time loh..!!

10) JUST LIKE NAIM WAS SOLD DOWN TO 45 SEN AFTER CAPITAL EXERCISE Sapnrg HAS ALSO BEEN SOLD DOWN TO ONLY 23.5 SEN (DUE TO CAPITAL EXERCISE RECENTLY)

Share just like NAIM AT 50 SEN. NAIM REACHED RM1.00 FOR 100% UPSIDE RECENTLY

SO Sapnrg IS NOW 34 SEN

WHAT IS THE TARGET PRICE FOR Sapnrg?

Raider HAS A 3 YEAR TARGET PRICE FOR Sapnrg AT RM 3.00 loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-13 23:53 | Report Abuse

THE BEST INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS THAT U BET WITH LOW RISK AND WITH VERY HIGH POTENTIAL RETURN LOH.....!!

SAPNRG IS THE BEST PICK BCOS IT MAKE ITS OWN FUTURE MAH....!!

WHY LEH ??

1. SAPNRG HAS OIL EQUIPMENT N MACHINE WHICH CAN DO VERY COMPLICATED JOBS, IT IS THIS REASONS IT HAS RM 19 BILLION CONTRACT IN HAND TODATE AND THIS IS BASING ON ONLY 50% OF ITS CAPACITY UTILIZATION LOH...!!
SAPNRG STILL HAS BALANCE CAPACITY TO TAKE UP ANOTHER RM 20 BILLION MORE JOBS LOH.......!!

2. UNLIKE OTHER OIL & GAS COMPANY SAPNRG IS ACTUALLY A MINI PETRONAS...BESIDE IT CAN DO SERVICES AND CONTRACT, IT HAS ITS OWN MANY OIL FIELDS THAT IS VERY RICH IN DEPOSITS AND CAN CONTRIBUTE STRAIGHT TO SAPNRG BOTTOM LINE AND GROWTH VERY QUICKLY....THRU ANYTIME INCREASING ITS OIL EXTRACTION... VERY QUICKLY IS NOT A PROBLEM

3. IT IS EXPECTED SAPNRG OWN INTERNAL OIL FIELD WORKS CAN CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST RM 4 BILLION OF CONTRACTS TO SAPNRG PA....THATS THE REASONS WHY RAIDER SAYS SAPNRG...ORDER BOOKS IS INCREASING AND GROWING EVERYDAY AND MINUTES, BCOS OF THIS OWN INTERNAL WORKS THAT CAN FLOW IN ANYTIME LOH....!!

THE BOOMING OIL CONDITIONS WILL KICK START SAPNRG RECOVERY FROM BEING A PENNY STOCKS OF RM 0.34 TO ITS RIGHTFUL ORIGINAL POSITION OF A PRECIOUS BLUECHIPS AT RM 3.00 GIVING IT MKT CAP OF RM 70 BILLION LOH...!!

SAPNRG HAVE THE FOLLOWING MOST IMPORTANT ALLIES LOH...!!

1. PETRONAS ...THEY HAS AWARDED THE MOST CONTRACT TO SAPNRG COMPARE TO ANY OTHER OIL & GAS LISTED CO IN MSIA.

2. OMV ITS REPUTABLE JOINT VENTURE PARTNER..THAT INVOLVE WITH HUGE OIL EXTRACTION AND OILFIELD RESERVES ENHANCEMENT ASSETS...THAT WILL INCREASE ITS REVENUE AND REDUCE THE COST OF PER BARREL OF OIL LOH...!!

3.PNB WHICH PROVIDE CORPORATE ADVISORY, FUNDING REQUIREMENT AND GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, THUS SAFEGUARDING THE MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS.

WITH THIS IN PLACE WE ARE PRETTY SURE & SAFE THAT SAPNRG WILL GROW EXPONENTIALLY AND SUSTAINABLY...THATS WHY RAIDER SAYS ALL OUT SAILANG ON SAPNRG, WHEN IT IS VERY CHEAP MAH....

Posted by stockraider > 2019-03-13 23:59 | Report Abuse

A CHINCHAI BADLY MANAGE AND FINANCIAL IN TROUBLE STOCK LIKE FGV, CAN SHOOT UP ALMOST 50% !!...DO U KNOW HOW MUCH SAPNRG CAN SHOOT UP, WHEN THE POTENTIAL UNLEASHED LEH ??

DO U WANT TO BE A RICH BUGGER LIKE KYY, PHILIP , 3iii OR LIKE THE MODEST HUMBLE RAIDER LEH ??

IF YES...SAPNRG IS YOUR ANSWER LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > Mar 12, 2019 11:44 PM | Report Abuse X

Good comment loh....!!

If FGV can shoot from Rm 0.70 to above Rm 1.00...i m sure sapnrg who have less problem can do very much better loh....!!

Posted by ChefSaham > Mar 12, 2019 11:35 PM | Report Abuse

to me i think sapura and fgv are similar. both are glc, share price of both has been bottomed out, both undergoing restrucring, both impacted by commodity prices. previous years have never been the year or OnG or plantation companies focus but now maybe slowly re-emerge. for sapura, healthy order book is a big part meaning that the company still have steady cash flow coming in at least for the next 3 years with the new government hopefully this two companies can have a strong turnaround if you believe in the management then u buy if not find other counters :)

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-24 19:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-24 19:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Apr 24, 2019 7:40 PM | Report Abuse

This was the last post of raider in his archive.
=======

raider trapped by his margin of safety delusion.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-24 19:45 | Report Abuse

Is he swimming naked again!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-24 19:50 | Report Abuse

Sapura energy... Can Punt lah, if you want to invest there... really need to ask some sifu to teach you some skills already