Price Target Analysis: VELESTO (5243)

Here is a quick recap (Edge market interview Velesto CEO).

1. Velesto sent Naga 5 for 55 days of a major maintenance program in Singapore. Naga 5 just returned back from 2 years of integrated drilling work for Hess Carigali, which was completed earlier than the actual assigned date (👏👏👏). Naga 5 will be assigned to a new project in mid-January 2025 onwards, as the group is in the final stage of securing a 2-year new contract. (expected new contract announcement soon). Naga 5 is free from any major maintenance work for another 5 years once this SPS is completed.

2. For now, three of its jack-up rigs are under contracts that will run until February 2026. Of the remaining three, Naga 3 and Naga 8 are bidding for jobs from late 2025 onwards, as the two rigs are scheduled for dry docking in the first half of next year. The maintenance process, dubbed special periodical survey (SPS), will take about two to three months before the rig can resume operations. That means Naga 3 and 8 are out of a job from Jan to March. With two SPS to be conducted next year, Megat explains that each SPS capex amounts to between US$10 million (RM45 million) and US$20 million. And the capex would eat into Velesto’s earnings in FY2025. On top of that, there will be a vacuum in earnings when two rigs are dry-docking at the yard.

3. Velesto has upgraded Naga 5 and Naga 6 to allow them to conduct multiple scopes of activities simultaneously, thus reducing charter days for clients. Naga 6 will also be installed with a robotic arm by 1Q2025, which automates some of the pipe installation process. The company is already exploring autonomous drilling.

4. CEO Megat Zariman said that Velesto is also looking at partnerships to expand into other rig-related projects such as decommissioning that will be a new revenue stream for the company.

5. The group is keeping a close watch on the upcoming Petronas Activity Outlook, which had previously indicated that up to 13 rigs would be required in 2026.

6. The average DCR in 2014 was high at US$151,000, against around US$115,000 currently.

7. The past two industry downturns dragged Velesto, which was known as UMW Oil & Gas Corp Bhd then, into severe financial stress, mainly because its new rigs were unable to secure enough chartered contracts. Megat certainly does not want history to repeat itself by not expanding fleet size aggressively and reducing dependency on local contracts. At least the CEO is aware of the importance of securing a long-term contract and not solely depending on PETRONAS 👏👏👏👏.

2 weeks ago

DJThong, this is your answer. Normally I don't reply to silly, brainless questions because I don't like debating or arguing... it's a waste of my time.

When asked whether the dynamics between Petronas and the states of Sabah and Sarawak could further weigh on market outlook, Megat says, “A lot of statements are being made, but at the end of the day it is about the capex that will be rolled out in the next three years. Worried PETRONAS will reduce the capital expenditure for upstream. As for now, Velesto still relies on PETRONAS contracts.

2 weeks ago

SinGor

Petronas Hess dumped Velesto bid of 150K DayRate and Guess what Petronas hire a Singapore Jack-up
rig a few Days after dumping Velesto for Sarawak job in 2025 ---I think Petronas is paying $150K dayrate
for Singapore Rig ( current market price )---Velesto has to mine contract outside Petronas Control

2 weeks ago

mavisdrac

Macgyver111

so should i buy now or not.

2 weeks ago

mavisdrac

Macgyver111

so should i buy now or not.

Sorry, Mavisdrac, nobody dares to say that. Even all IB previously said TP 0.30 but now change topic. The stock market is unpredictable. We can give you some rough ideas; the rest depends on you. Trade wisely. Do your own research before buying and selling.

2 weeks ago

Mavisdrac, the below article might give you some clue either to buy or not. Happy trading.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/12/04/correction-in-og-counters-presents-buying-opportunity

2 weeks ago

YieldSeeker

It's a buying opportunity according to BIMB Securities Research 😁

2 weeks ago

Nourchar

I see this counter falling to next support 0.13 , am not saying this definite but thats what i think

2 weeks ago

If Velesto able to secure regional contract like Thailand and Vietnam, the IB will change their story.

2 weeks ago

RJ87

Important thing is naga 5 get contract in Jan, naga 3 get contract in mac and naga 8 on June.

2 weeks ago

Huge volume coming in. Hahahaha PNB playing this kind of tricks, press down and push it up.

Follow the wave and enjoy the ride!!

2 weeks ago

Hopefully.

2 weeks ago

I think TA is one of the lousy research centers. They did not fully digest the true story. Naga 8 was not suspended due to Velesto client cancelling the order. Actual Naga 8 completed drilling work in advance, or, in a simple form of words, we can say they completed it before the actual due/agreement date. The contract for Naga 8 was issued on 1st November 2023, and the commencing date is on 19 April 2024 until 18 October 2025 (1 year 6 months), but the Naga 8 crew completed the extraction work within 8 months. That means they are already 11 months ahead. This will give an opportunity to send Naga 8 for a special SPS survey. The contract amount is USD 74 million. They will receive the same amount even if they drag it until 18 October 2025...which is better, to complete the job quickly with efficiency and receive the full payment or drag the drilling job slowly, whereby it will swallow their operation cost?

I don't know how TA does the analysis... shop lot IB.

2 weeks ago

Macgyver you got lock profit when Velesto reached 0.30?

2 weeks ago

Yes. Then buy again.

2 weeks ago

Great 👍 panlai!

2 weeks ago

Morgan Stanley Raises Brent Oil Forecast for Late 2025 After OPEC+ Move https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Morgan-Stanley-Raises-Brent-Oil-Forecast-for-Late-2025-After-OPEC-Move.html

2 weeks ago

marlboroman2

This counter only hope is for year end window dressing (if any is coming at all) apart from this no other short term foreseeable cataylst.

2 weeks ago

Harryww

This stock is undervalued. According to world streets journal the price should be 0.35 which is 50%+ undervalued.

2 weeks ago

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/12/09/improved-earnings-visibility-forecast-for-velesto

Very rare Maybank gives credit to Velesto.

2 weeks ago

Velesto please go out of Malaysia water. See that dayrate your air liur keluar tak??

Shallow-water driller Borr Drilling has secured a handsome dayrate with a new contract in West Africa for one of its jack-up drilling units.

The 2011-built jack-up Norve will go on contract at about $181,250 for a 320-day

2 weeks ago

All this over valuation sounds good on paper. If you extend the graph it gives either 0.05 per share and some say even 0.005 per share

2 weeks ago

hafizfizor90

what i can say this stock nothing special everyday untung setiap tahun untung. tapi saham sentiasa jatuh

2 weeks ago

hafizfizor90

better change the management lah.

2 weeks ago

Sarawak and Petronas dispute resolved with immediate effect.

1 week ago

Tomorrow might have a tick up

1 week ago

Sarawak premier Abang Johari Openg has revealed that a solution has been reached over the dispute between Sarawak and Petronas over the rights to oil and gas (O&G) resources in and around the state, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim set to announce it soon.

1 week ago

PM will announce it soon, sources said...maybe during the 2025 budget presentation. Hopefully win-win situation for both parties.

1 week ago

gkungpat

PMX 🤔🤔🤔

1 week ago

gkungpat

Ada jerung tengah tunggu nak makan besar..
Bagi jatuh dulu...
lepas tuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu ngappppppppppp

1 week ago

Baby Shark

I tunggu 0.24 & buy new car MYVI..

1 week ago

mikeann

BIMB Securities Research
Velesto Target price : 0.34

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/pricetarget/research/73934

1 week ago

Will be 15.5 sen for a long long time.
When Velesto profits increases, share price of Velesto decreases.😁

1 week ago

hafizfizor90

hoping velesto will loss much so share price will be increase😂

1 week ago

This pressing down of share price to buy 1 million shares a day seems to continue forever and ever.....

1 week ago

EAGLE

Hahahaha....looks like cartel behavior

1 week ago

marlboroman2

15.5 sens gone hahaha, next level 15 sens

1 week ago

Velesto deserved 0.30 and above. Many institutions sell ready. Need PNB or other big guys to step in.

1 week ago

Still unclear what PNB's next move is.

1 week ago

Atlas0103

this is totally trash

2 days ago

gkungpat

Wowwww pagi2 lagi dh merah..
Wat happen?

2 days ago

Tigerchan

Going to bangkrup

2 days ago

cheahgood

Don't be greedy for few thousands, later you will lose double of it.
Velesto will ends up like Serbadk.
From 4.00 down to 0.15 (drop more than 1,000%), if the company don't have MAJOR crisis, it wouldn't drop more than 1,000%

2 days ago

cheahgood

How many of you will still hope Velesto wil up to 4.00 again... hahaha

2 days ago

They flushing out all the foreign investors before local institutions join in... I guess. Nothing wrong with the company. Don't compare Serba with Velesto. Serba is facing accounts fraud charges, and PNB is not an owner of Serba.

2 days ago

Company cash flow is healthy, and a favourable order book is in hand... How can it go bankrupt? Unless you have evidence to support your theory, I would like to hear that too.

2 days ago

I know you guys are frustrated, but just think practically: PNB, as a major owner or shareholder, do you think they want this company to go bankrupt? They will lose everything. If PNB really wants to exit, the only choice is either to hand over to a new owner like what they did to UMW Toyota (sell to Sime Darby) or they privatise it (like Bplant).

2 days ago