16) REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE Revenue for the quarter was up by 53.8% or RM6,699.3 million quarter on quarter, mainly due to the higher under-recovery position of ICPT of RM6,302.6 million as compared to the last corresponding period which was at RM314.6 million.
From the above info. regarding to the revenue, the actual electricity sold was only from 11.84b to 12.57b, the reported 53.8% increased was mainly due to ICPT, a gov subsidy scheme which involves different pricing for resident and industrial /commercial usage.
https://www.tnb.com.my/suppliers-investors-media-relations/financial-info/#quarterly-results I don't see any concerted effort from analyst in shooting down the receivables concern anymore, but the overall report is better than expected, they manage to improve operation cost overall due to the excess capacity and reduction of coal usage (subsidize gas alternative) even with the increase in demand. (pretty good operation/cost management). Another impressive projection is the EV car business that will slowly eat into gasoline business. And projection revenue is exponential ramp from a low base from 2025 onwards. 2030 expect 1.3billion revenue. I was skeptical on EV before but looking at global trend , it continues to surpass prediction. EBIT margin is lower but analyst was far too pessimistic when the sell off begin last quarter.
On the technical front as TTV first notice the Cup and handle is very prominent. The last two candles looks bullish . We have passed the high volume sell down in mid june, should pass >9 Resistance at 9.25 and go side ways for longer period . However with US and Europe market not seeing a bottom yet we have to be cautious on this front.
<firehawk> You are right ICPT mechanism allows TNB to raise the tarrifs if not it is consider under recovery and borne by the government . Bare in mind this is technically a revenue and put under short term receivables with the notion Govt will pay within a year. When govt pay it will be put under cash flow and not under revenue anymore as it has been capture earlier. The problem is 19 billions receivable are ~50% government and 50% industry. Govt only committed 6 billion this year and the concern on the commitment is still there
After 3 years pandemic already end, next year onwards surely is the years of recovery and economy start booming time ! Like previously economy downturn period of: 1)Crisis 1986-1990 start booming 1993 to 1997 2)Crisis 1997-2000 start booming 2003 to 2006 3)Crisis 2006-2010 start booming 2013 to 2016 4)Crisis 2016-2022 start booming 2023 to 2027
So, our economy and KLSE will be spike up like mad start from year 2023 which is next year and i predict our KLSE this round of bull run start 2023 will hit it’s record high of around 2,000 points !
Oil and Gas price has increase 2-3 x compares to the forecasted in the budget on the OnG oil rent revenue. This is really positive news for our GDP and KLSE if continues at the sweet spot of ~100 usd /barrel. Opportunity on OnG and KLSE in general. Risk is always geo political situation and drastic global slowdown.
KUALA LUMPUR: At the conclusion of its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, Bank Negara increased the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%, in line with market expectations. In a statement, it said it raised the ceiling and floor rate of the corridor of the OPR to 2.75% and 2.25% respectively.
This is the central bank's third consecutive rate hike, bringing the total increase in the OPR to 75bps so far this year. "At the current OPR level, the stance of monetary policy continues to remain accommodative and supportive of economic growth.
"The MPC is not on any pre-set course and will continue to assess evolving conditions and their implications on the overall outlook to domestic inflation and growth," said Bank Negara…..
A 3 million shares short position covering in Tenaga in the latest net short position update, up to close of business last Thursday (September 8). It's been gradually creeping down in recent weeks, around 50k and 100k+ units each day but this is the fisrt significant amount, 3,008,000 shares.
0.13 % of ttl net short position as of yesterday. If they don't cover their shorts, their account will be deducted the due dividend amount. Not much change in as selling volume is still there. With the continuous slow covering of shorts, might see more institutions buying happening next few days. Very quite market recently.
anyone can share or explain current legal status with Inland Revenue? Based on my understanding, high court already ruled that Tenaga is entitled to claim reinvestment scheme. However in one the announcement mentioned out of court settlement.
US stocks might test the bottom again for the 2nd time. Expect the feds to raise interest rate until end of next year . Inflation will take longer to be tame until next year. ECB (european bank) rates will rise from 0.5% to 1.8% end 2023. Good news is Asia will do slightly better but we cannot decouple from the situation of high interest rate. BNM will continue to raise 0.25 % min every 3 months until end of next year. I think utilities and OnG will still be the choice for lowering risk investment in coming year and start preparing for this inevitable economic cycle.
The US central bank has pushed interest rates to the highest level in almost 15 years as it fights to rein in soaring prices in the world's largest economy. The Federal Reserve announced it was raising its key rate by another 0.75 percentage points, lifting the target range to 3% to 3.25%. Borrowing costs are expected to climb more - and remain high, the bank said. The move comes despite mounting concern that the cost of controlling inflation could be a harsh economic downturn…
KimSua, some people can see where this is heading but for now the majority either don't know or don't want to know. Once it hits their own pockets then all the shouting and finger pointing will commence.
That is the problem. Cash is king during recession pauper during high inflation. Both recession risk and inflation during this stagflation phenomena is really confusing on investment. Balance portfolio might be the best bet now. See no road.
US stocks testing the bottom for 2nd time. Will it hold and Hv bear market rally or nose dive further. I think it will hold and Hv a rally and test the bottom again before cycle is over. Mid next year. Better go defensive and stay clear on technology stocks. Hang on .
KimSua, it's a tough call to make right now about the Dow and the overall US and global markets, if it wasn't for a 350 point rally in the last hour of Friday's trading it would have closed considerably uglier. The US interest rate hikes seem to still be on the agenda for at least the foreseeable future so even a minor upward move in their market will probably be met with more volatility. Even taking a glance at the 3 year Dow chart gives me even more concerns.
How the above comments translate to our Malaysian market is hard to gauge, well for me anyway. Sentiment is always a good indicator of how the market will perform, so I'm not taking any comfort in thinking the KLCI will do anything to break the trend or sentiment. Current "underpriced" blue chips may remain that way for some time to come unless sentiment changes, although that doesn't sound doable.
I was bullish on the banks earlier this year but that hasn't played out as strongly as I'd anticipated, although the dividends and a mild upward price move have made them a reasonable investment, to date
My keyword for the short term and through to at least mid 2023 (fpr now) is volatility.....so be prepared :)
My personal view of the Malaysian economy isn't too inspiring either. The changes that the Government should have made in subsidies should have been in place by now but the delay, in my opinion, is merely due to the elections. The "unbiased" (ho ho ho) Finance Minister is eager to remove many subsidies, mainly power and fuel, but is delaying that until after the election. Once the majority of those subsidies are removed then we have yet another new game in the Malaysian economy........and it won't be sunshine, lollipops and rainbows :)
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/ I Hv checking on the world bond price and the inverted yield of many countries that signals recession. The numbers are coming in aggressively for the last quarter signalling clearly global recession is happening. Asia is still OK maybe by a few quarters . Should we sell all and hold cash or mutual funds bond funds? Until the storm passes n
:) never give up never surrender your wealth to Government ! Hedge against inflation is a must but which instrument is the best ? Tenaga will be able to withstand the storm better than other non necessary business. I still think oil price will not go down that much due to the supply issue will off set the demand reduction, average USD 100 . I will diversified more towards this two scenario. With interest rate height until end of next year, foresee more non performing loans and reduction of loan demand. The technology manufacturing industry is preparing of huge slowdown, budgets are being cut due to huge slowdown of demand forecasted. This is what i think will happen, Banks and Technology will not do well, better stay clear. But generally September is bad on stocks (portfolio reporting and rebalancing) and should see institution investor start plan out their portfolio based on the expectation of global recession and the scenario mention above. Good luck, choppy days ahead .
Short covering is still going on in Tenaga, with a tad over 1.1 million shares covered in the last three trading days, to COB on Monday 26th September. It now brings down the short percentage to 0.10%.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....