@furball: "is getting 8% return on consistent basis from self investing in the stock market possible or a reasonable expectation?"
Investing is fun. If you do not find it so, better leave it to professionals. As to returns, what you get, ultimately, depends on how the benchmark like FBMKLCI performs over a long-period. And, the index unfortunately has not done well for a while. We achieved our highest point eight years ago, in 2014, and we have been going downhill ever since.
So, could you achieve an 8% annualised return by investing in KLSE? Yes, provided you have the ability to 1) identify (through fundamental analysis) a bunch of reasonably well-run companies that potentially could give consistent performance over a long period of time, say, the next 10 years; and 2) be patient and wait for an opportune time -- i.e. when the price of a stock is well below your estimate of its value -- to invest. Easily said than done.
Let's take Tenaga, as an example. I believe most of us here invested in the stock because it is a monopoly, and we cannot imagine a future where Tenaga doesn't exist. So, in that sense, it is a company with a wide moat. Its management, however, is questionable. (I am damn happy that it got rid of its dimwitted Chairman recently. Hopefully, the new guy, whoever he or she is, would hold the SLT's feet to the fire.) If you had invested in the stock in May 2018, you'd have seen the stock literally halving in value (not inclusive of dividends) over the next four years. But, if you had confidence in the stock, you'd have invested in it every time it hits a new bottom, like earlier in the year, when it tested the RM8 mark twice.
This is the question I ask before I take any position in a stock: "Would I be happy if the price of the stock takes a 20% dip in the next month?" If my answer is a firm YES, then I go ahead and commit my funds to it. If NO, I stay away. Simple.
I haven't had much of an opportunity to monitor the market or individual stocks over the past two or three weeks but I was able to watch the last couple of hours on Friday before the New Year break. True to form, the Instos were having their own bit of end of year fun with Tenaga.
Mid afternoon when the price was floating around the 9.40 to 9.45 area, along "they" came and sold it down to 9.31, then within minutes it was back up to 9.45 on heavy volume.
Then we had the close at 9.63, with 12 million shares going through in the closing auction!!
If you want to suffer with paranoia and bi polar disorder, then Tenaga is the stock for you....lol!
I tend to agree with @Ken Chung, when he said that he thinks Tenaga is in an uptrend, however if you are thinking of investing it might be prudent to be prepared for endless Fund and Insto games throughout your journey :) The price will go wherever the major Funds want it to go, with us mere pawns watching and hoping.
I still hold Tenaga as a long term investment and have no plans to sell in the foreseeable future. I have similar thoughts with the bank stocks I currently own and expect to see them and Tenaga slowly progress throughout 2023, as long as there are no serious global financial downturns. Hold and closely monitor are my thoughts for these blue chips throughout 2023.
Happy New Year to all who participate in this thread........and let's hope there are no major calamities throughout the year.
Unlike Telephone line, there will be only one power grid in Peninsula, all others need to connect to this Tenaga Grid. Due to this Advantage, Tenaga will survive although with further development of RE...
EPF went on a Tenaga spending spree in the last three trading days of 2022.
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 15,745,900 shares on 30-Dec-2022 EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 171,900 shares on 30-Dec-2022. EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 3,370,400 shares on 29-Dec-202 EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 2,693,600 shares on 28-Dec-2022.
Around 22 million bought in three days, with a value approx. Rm206 million+.
Good sign, EPF is not here to lose money. I think will test the recent meaningful high of 9.50 for the third time before it can go up any further. Retailers don't have the funds to do it. Only EPF/KWAP or other Inst Buyers. Accumulation phase and bit of shake out before it can go further.
3rd time testing the 1 year high of 9.5. Not significant volume but a very good sign IB is slowly accumulating. If buying competition comes expect some quick spike but currently looks like KWAP and EPF is doing the major buying and in control. Very good start of the year.
Hi KimSua, you said....."3rd time testing the 1 year high of 9.5."
It could be possible sometime this upcoming week, particularly if the KLCI can finally break the 1,500 level. I'm slightly positive for the upcoming week for the KLCI to move above 1,500 but less positive about it taking on break points of 1,515 and 1,530.
If the overall market does try to make a marginal forward move this week, then I'd be looking for Tenaga to take on the top B Band of 9.62.
We use to have the CNY rally when retailers were a major force in KLSE. Might not happen this year and potential break can only happen during the Q4 earnings report end of Feb. Slow and steady is better compare to the sell down we see during the KWSP withdrawal 1.0/2,0 ....I think too it should break 1500 this week.
DOSM IPI reported in Jan 11"The Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose by 4.8 per cent in November 2022 after recording an increase of 4.6 per cent last month. The growth was further augmented by Mining and Manufacturing indices which expanded by 6.1 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively. In the meantime, the Electricity index turned around to record a positive growth of 1.2 per cent during the month." TNB revenue should be flat , ~19.1-19.2 Bil range . Operation expense will not be any surprise, all depends on the Q4 taxation. Also the receivables numbers depends on how much TNB has receive so far form the gomen commitment, should be positive based on the media reports. Happy Chinese Newy Year
Tenaga has made really impressive gains over the past 6 months, rising over RM1.50 a share or almost 20% from its lows in July last year. Naysayers who had predicted that it would drop to RM4.50 a share are now keeping their mouth shut.
TTV, no hungover but not enough sleep :) . Yes the charts looks like a long end of the flag pole. By right if it is an uptrend should break the resistance soon , however volume is really too insignificant. The lower low is getting lower meaning less retailer willing to sell . However if you look at MACD /RSI does not look too promising. Cannot really get a confirmation. Better to wait and see and go fundamentals especially the Q4 results. What say you?
I just look at the flag pattern cheat sheet :) , it could a non-directional or a rising wedge (potential drop pattern if cannot break the resistance . However if you look at economics and where is the money going to flow. Things like china reopening , inflation rate is under control(interest rate hike to be dovish), oil price benefiting M'sia economy. I still think is on an uptrend and major analyst are advising to look at recession proof stocks. I am choosing utility, OnG and Telco (for the fact that 5G is only happening this year if gomen don't screw it up again !). Good luck to all , nothing is certain , all boils down to your risk appetite.
Hi KimSua, I'll give an opinion, for what it's worth......rarely any guarantees with Tenaga especially in the past 12 months or so :)
With the steadily increasing tightening of the Bollis, we should be expecting something to give reasonably soon. With the recent slow upward movement since early December, on low volume, my bias is towards an upward move to break the top Bolli Band.
With the quarterly due in about a month's time this may help with the possible move. Along with the quarterly will be the mention of what the Final Dividend will be, I'm not expecting any major surprises there with a guesstimate of around 20 to 22 cents. The ex date for the dividend will probably be March 30, so with that in mind it may also assist with a gradual move upwards in the week's leading up to March 30.
As for the immediate short term, I'd like to see a break upwards of low 9.60's.......a convincing break of 1,500 on the KLCI may help there IF/ WHEN it does eventually break that 1,500 resistance. it's been very stubborn as I thought it would have broke last week but onlu managed to tickle 1,500.
Bottom line, I am slightly hawkish over the next 2 months for Tenaga with an upward bias..... BUT I'd like to see a lot more volume entering the stock if it can break the low 9.60's area.
Looks like it..we have to think where is the IB going to park their money? I think coal price drop is gradual with the mild winter in Europe as they have over hedge causing it to rise unrealistical last qtrly. Dirty energy needs to go and coal is the first to go... They are even bringing back nuclear ...anyway Green energy stuff will continue to confuse me.
"4QFY22 – Good dividend. Management has guided the earnings for 4QFY22 to be seasonally lower QoQ due to accelerating opex as well as lower contributions from own hydropower generation. We expect core earnings for 4QFY22 to sustain above the RM1bn level, resulting FY22 to achieve RM5.0-5.2bn. Management is confident of concluding at higher end of its dividend payout policy of 30-60% on adjusted net profit for FY22. Back of envelop calculations indicate an attractive 28-30 sen/share for 2HFY22 (vs. 20 sen/share in 1HFY22 and 18 sen/share in 2HFY21)."
Hi Deekay, I take your point from the report you posted, however I'd rather lean towards the conservative side for now when it comes to the upcoming dividend as there are so many moving parts with Tenaga. I'd be very pleasantly surprised with a 30 cent payout but I won't be banking on it yet.
Had it been the end of FY23 and not FY22 I'd have been more confident due to the effects of the the industrial and commercial subsidies being lifted, therefore less reliance on the government mechanisms of timing of the cash replenishments.
But hey, if they want to give me 30 cents then I'll gladly take it :)
No worries the funds are playing to move it up slowly. Shake out slowly to get the weak holders to sell. Similar patterns seen in many key counter. Can only hope the no other major events to break this. Minor resistance at 9.50....more consistence volume at least today. Hopefully we see a solid breakout soon.
The low 9.60's area keeps coming up as a breakout point on any Fib. calcs that I do, more specifically 9.62. That has been the case for more than a month now. With the ever tightening Bollinger Bands, surely something has to break...........and hopefully that will be to the upside.
We continue to sit and wait for a beak of 1,500 on the KLCI, which should provide an updraught for some blue chips like Tenaga and the banks. I certainly hope so, anyway, as the waiting is becoming very tedious!! :)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....