CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD

KLSE (MYR): CARLSBG (2836)

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Last Price

19.12

Today's Change

+0.14 (0.74%)

Day's Change

19.00 - 19.20

Trading Volume

67,000

Financial

Show?
Last 10 FY Result
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
Revenue 2,240,488 2,293,120 2,412,465 1,772,821 1,785,000 2,256,581 1,982,342 1,768,223 1,679,494 1,659,945 1,635,096 1,555,149 4.99%
PBT 431,521 412,755 444,405 259,573 209,780 382,237 361,260 294,792 283,843 283,632 274,252 236,429 7.25%
Tax -91,406 -95,225 -119,544 -55,208 -43,595 -81,853 -74,503 -62,414 -73,178 -63,394 -57,331 -49,809 10.20%
NP 340,114 317,530 324,861 204,365 166,185 300,384 286,757 232,378 210,665 220,238 216,921 186,620 6.34%
-
NP to SH 332,296 309,343 317,046 200,988 162,180 291,024 277,154 221,165 204,978 215,913 211,582 183,925 6.23%
-
Tax Rate 21.18% 23.07% 26.90% 21.27% 20.78% 21.41% 20.62% 21.17% 25.78% 22.35% 20.90% 21.07% -
Total Cost 1,900,373 1,975,590 2,087,604 1,568,456 1,618,815 1,956,197 1,695,585 1,535,845 1,468,829 1,439,707 1,418,175 1,368,529 4.80%
-
Net Worth 217,081 217,081 152,874 217,081 174,276 155,931 180,391 311,862 330,207 342,427 330,207 284,345 -6.65%
Dividend
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
Div 252,751 266,000 269,058 171,218 122,299 305,748 305,748 266,000 220,138 220,132 217,081 186,506 4.15%
Div Payout % 76.06% 85.99% 84.86% 85.19% 75.41% 105.06% 110.32% 120.27% 107.40% 101.95% 102.60% 101.40% -
Equity
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
Net Worth 217,081 217,081 152,874 217,081 174,276 155,931 180,391 311,862 330,207 342,427 330,207 284,345 -6.65%
NOSH 305,748 305,748 305,748 305,748 305,748 305,748 305,748 305,748 308,078 305,739 305,748 305,748 0.00%
Ratio Analysis
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
NP Margin 15.18% 13.85% 13.47% 11.53% 9.31% 13.31% 14.47% 13.14% 12.54% 13.27% 13.27% 12.00% -
ROE 153.07% 142.50% 207.39% 92.59% 93.06% 186.64% 153.64% 70.92% 62.08% 63.05% 64.08% 64.68% -
Per Share
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
RPS 732.79 750.00 789.04 579.83 583.81 738.05 648.36 578.33 549.31 542.93 534.79 508.64 4.99%
EPS 108.68 101.18 103.70 65.74 53.04 95.18 90.65 72.34 67.04 70.62 69.20 60.16 6.23%
DPS 82.67 87.00 88.00 56.00 40.00 100.00 100.00 87.00 72.00 72.00 71.00 61.00 4.15%
NAPS 0.71 0.71 0.50 0.71 0.57 0.51 0.59 1.02 1.08 1.12 1.08 0.93 -6.65%
Adjusted Per Share Value based on latest NOSH - 305,748
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
RPS 732.79 750.00 789.04 579.83 583.81 738.05 648.36 578.33 549.31 542.91 534.79 508.64 4.99%
EPS 108.68 101.18 103.70 65.74 53.04 95.18 90.65 72.34 67.04 70.62 69.20 60.16 6.23%
DPS 82.67 87.00 88.00 56.00 40.00 100.00 100.00 87.00 72.00 72.00 71.00 61.00 4.15%
NAPS 0.71 0.71 0.50 0.71 0.57 0.51 0.59 1.02 1.08 1.12 1.08 0.93 -6.65%
Price Multiplier on Financial Quarter End Date
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
Date 29/09/23 29/09/23 30/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 29/12/17 30/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 -
Price 20.00 20.00 22.88 20.08 23.24 29.40 19.68 15.30 13.92 11.70 11.74 12.18 -
P/RPS 2.73 2.67 2.90 3.46 3.98 3.98 3.04 2.65 2.53 2.15 2.20 2.39 2.17%
P/EPS 18.40 19.77 22.06 30.55 43.81 30.89 21.71 21.15 20.76 16.57 16.96 20.25 0.95%
EY 5.43 5.06 4.53 3.27 2.28 3.24 4.61 4.73 4.82 6.04 5.89 4.94 -0.95%
DY 4.13 4.35 3.85 2.79 1.72 3.40 5.08 5.69 5.17 6.15 6.05 5.01 -2.88%
P/NAPS 28.17 28.17 45.76 28.28 40.77 57.65 33.36 15.00 12.89 10.45 10.87 13.10 14.90%
Price Multiplier on Announcement Date
AQR T4Q 31/12/22 31/12/21 31/12/20 31/12/19 31/12/18 31/12/17 31/12/16 31/12/15 31/12/14 31/12/13 CAGR
Date 01/11/23 01/11/23 23/02/23 17/02/22 18/02/21 21/02/20 14/02/19 14/02/18 21/02/17 26/02/16 27/02/15 21/02/14 -
Price 19.82 19.82 23.44 22.30 22.50 38.94 21.58 16.66 14.74 12.12 12.86 12.70 -
P/RPS 2.70 2.64 2.97 3.85 3.85 5.28 3.33 2.88 2.68 2.23 2.40 2.50 1.93%
P/EPS 18.24 19.59 22.60 33.92 42.42 40.91 23.81 23.03 21.99 17.16 18.58 21.11 0.76%
EY 5.48 5.10 4.42 2.95 2.36 2.44 4.20 4.34 4.55 5.83 5.38 4.74 -0.77%
DY 4.17 4.39 3.75 2.51 1.78 2.57 4.63 5.22 4.88 5.94 5.52 4.80 -2.70%
P/NAPS 27.92 27.92 46.88 31.41 39.47 76.35 36.58 16.33 13.65 10.82 11.91 13.66 14.67%

PBT = Profit before Tax, NP = Net Profit, NP to SH = Net Profit Attributable to Shareholder, Div = Dividend, NP Margin = Net Profit Margin, ROE = Return on Equity, NOSH = Number of Shares, RPS = Revenue per Share, EPS = Earning Per Share, DPS = Dividend Per Share, NAPS = Net Asset Per Share, EOQ = End of Quarter, ANN = Announcement, P/RPS = Price/Revenue per Share, P/EPS = Price/Earning per Share, P/NAPS = Price/Net Asset per Share, EY = Earning Yield, DY = Dividend Yield.

NOSH is estimated based on the NP to SH and EPS. Div is an estimated figure based on the DPS and NOSH. Net Worth is an estimated figure based on the NAPS and NOSH.

Div Payout %, NP Margin, ROE, DY, QoQ ⃤ & YoY ⃤ figures in Percentage; RPS, EPS & DPS's figures in Cent; and NAPS's figures in Dollar.

All figures in '000 unless specified.

Discussions
5 people like this. Showing 50 of 1,745 comments

dam82

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/19/carlsberg-asahi-group-mutually-agree-not-to-renew-distribution-of-asahi-brand-in-msia

2023-06-19 18:48

RWG

Post removed.Why?

2023-06-19 19:56

Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

negative for carlsberg

2023-06-19 20:28

RWG

time to quit drinking, save money

2023-06-20 15:30

pang72

Avoid beer stock because you will never know PAS when the beer be banned

2023-06-23 15:41

RWG

pas for all

2023-06-23 19:12

pang72

No beer no gamble no cigarette no mini skirt..

So, what else?
Corruption shld be OK THEN

2023-06-27 10:06

pang72

After falling below rm20, Carlsberg will join dlady, Panasonic, bat... As big cap falling championships

2023-06-27 10:16

dam82

fundemental is still there ...what makes the price so depressing is local political scene ..its all depends on the state election how stability of our goverment ...

2023-07-02 18:46

pang72

In the danger zone...
Any one wanna help to push by your last finger?

2023-07-04 19:02

pang72

Lagi sikit

2023-07-06 12:11

pang72

Tmr 20..

2023-07-10 21:06

pang72

State election in danger mode

2023-07-10 21:06

dam82

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/highlight/2023/07/24/green-wave-puts-tourism-industry-on-red-alert/

2023-07-24 10:25

DividendGuy67

CARLSBG is shareholder friendly - over past 8 years, it pays nearly 100% of its earnings to shareholders as dividends. Some years lower than earnings, some years higher, on average, around 100%. I like this type of shareholder who pays 80%+ of its earnings back to shareholders.

However, CARLSBG problem, as everyone noted above, is its earnings. 2022 looked like turning around, but 2023/Q1 has dipped slightly below 2022/Q1, causing investors to be wary if they've seen the peak in CARLSBG earnings. Last year, we saw 88 sen dividend, if there's a dip, I think we could be looking at 80-84 sen dividend this year.

Typically, I like my dividend yield at a minimum of 5%, but for this quality stock, 4.5% may be acceptable. At 82 sen dividend, my buy price will be around RM18.22, around Feb 2020 low. Probably less than 20% chance of happening.

Still, this stock is in my radar screen. A low price is a good reason to get into this stock.

2023-07-30 09:42

pang72

Wait after state election..
Green tsunami is no joke

2023-08-08 13:29

dam82

two more days to go for those with high risk apetitie .if confirm no green wave it will go full steam . if not all bust

2023-08-09 09:49

masterus

Adakah Selangor akan menjadi negeri suci?

2023-08-10 19:01

masterus

Macam Kedah, Kelantan dan Terengganu.

2023-08-10 19:02

masterus

Perlis juga.

2023-08-10 19:03

pang72

Wow... Green tsunami mari..
Beer all limit down...
Why do you so geng to take the risk?

2023-08-10 19:11

pang72

Selangor sudah panic juga...rocket penang pun gaduh gaduh...
Semua wayang no1.

2023-08-10 19:13

pang72

Beli itu stock that semua bangsar pun benefit punya la... Macam bank, Tenaga..air... Gas...kopi O kosong... Roti, telur...

Ini barang tak ada sesak warna... Semua bangsar pun ok

2023-08-10 19:15

rickygiam

carlsberg back in investors confidence.......

2023-08-13 00:42

dam82

safe till next election .... got lifeline but risky bet for long term if the trend continue

2023-08-13 04:31

hhhiii123

gogo 22cen dividend

2023-08-15 20:54

dam82

apa jadi lor ... BAT ke ...haha

2023-08-30 09:05

hhhiii123

Heim laosai, damn scare carlberg will follow it lol

2023-08-30 22:20

rickygiam

CARLBERG NOW FOLLOW HEIM.... DOWN

2023-09-01 09:27

LittleKnife

ai yo...apa hal ?

2023-09-01 09:29

speakup

wah down 0.4% already panic ke? like this better put your money in FD lah

2023-09-01 09:36

hhhiii123

Do ppl scare current government may imposed restriction on alcohol industry given the recent announcement related to High Education. I kind of have the same feel we are ruling by PAS government, wakakak

2023-09-01 09:42

dam82

by election .... impact ..

2023-09-01 09:59

serbatipu

Heinm already move, kemon Carlsberg

2 months ago

serbatipu

kemon carlsberg

1 month ago

serbatipu

buy at dip next monday, expect cukai alkohol dinaikkan lagi

1 month ago

dam82

no Increase right or did i read wrongly

1 month ago

hhhiii123

dividend!

1 month ago

Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

The group expects the non-renewal of the Asahi agreements to have an annual net profit impact of approximately RM30 million in FY2024.

1 month ago

ryoyagod

So Asahi will not be under Carlsberg starting next year?

4 weeks ago

ryoyagod

People take profits today?

2 weeks ago

moven00

Gone.... matter of time will drop like shit. Likely to suffer the same fate like BAT. Too over value and growth is pretty much limited/ non-exist. TAPAU.

1 week ago

hhhiii123

lol, please displose more then you will regret, china tourist will come and it will boost Alchohol industry, and new year & christmas coming soon

1 week ago

himbaan

asahi not really popular in malaysia.

1 week ago

hhhiii123

Time will prove it is golden chance to collect it, get ready for crashing after ex-date

1 week ago

ryoyagod

but Carlsberg is popular in Malaysia

1 week ago

DividendGuy67

"The non-renewal of the Asahi Agreements is expected to have an annual net profit impact of approximately RM30 million for the financial year ending 31 December 2024 and this will be progressively mitigated by the introduction of Sapporo in 2024 pursuant to the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the Company and Sapporo Breweries Limited on 1 November 2023."

30 million p.a. is big, but if we assign a PE of 20, this is roughly RM2 impact to shareholders.
But company has Sapporo to mitigate, so, longer term impact should be less than RM2.
So, I will be slowly accumulating for the long term. Current holdings is small around 2%.

6 days ago

DividendGuy67

CARLSBG past 8 year EPS/DPS are growing, but not a steady growth:
Year: EPS / DPS
2015: 71 / 77
2016: 67 / 72
2017: 72 / 87
2018: 91 / 100
2019: 95 / 100
2020: 53 / 40
2021: 66 / 56
2022: 104 / 88
2023E: 100? / 86?

So, if just look at 2023 to compare against 2022 and if we factor in loss of Asahi in 2024, CARLSBG looks set to declare lower EPS and lower DPS. Hence it's price has fallen and rightly so.

And if you look at COVID impact to its business in 2020, its EPS dropped substantially in 2020, i.e. it's business is not immune to pandemic (but so are vast majority of busineses) - I can accept this lack of resilience during pandemics.

But if you are willing to take a 8 year view (most investor aren't), then, this is nothing like BAT at all. This company grows in the long term. Maybe the historical high growth is over, but it should still grow because unlike BAT which as vaping and other alternatives, CARLSBG alternatives looks much smaller in comparison and I would think this stock is decent to add to one's long term dividend portfolio, but having said that, I only have 2% and I wouldn't be looking at adding to more than 3% of my portfolio. > 40 of my stocks pays dividends, including CARLSBG.

6 days ago

DividendGuy67

Maybe better to have waited a bit for around 18-18.5 as I mentioned in July, but 19+ was tempting. Personally, I'm not expecting a turnaround within next 6-12 months, so there should be plenty of time to accumulate.

6 days ago

DividendGuy67

PAS fears, and political extremism is a valid risk when looking at Malaysia long term (anyone who observed the past 40 years can see this very clearly), hence, the growth in the past is unlikely to be repeated in the future, but human behaviour (to drink) is a longer constant in my personal opinion, so, to me, the net effects should still be long term growth, just, maybe not as high as before due to rising alternatives (but we are talking long term here).

6 days ago

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