Personal opinions today

 

The Fed’s interest rate decision kept the interest rate, but said that there is no interest rate hike plan this year. It is expected that the interest rate increase will be only one time next year, in line with market expectations. However, as the Fed does not expect to raise interest rates this year, the US dollar yield fell, the US dollar index also fell. Benefiting the major currencies rose against the US dollar, and the gold price broke through $1315 expected resistance. The euro also broke through recent resistance, to 1.14. Expectations, this morning's Fed policy statement can continue to be reflected in the early trading of the whole Asian trading hours and early Europe trading hours, which means the dollar stills have the chance fall further.

 

Yesterday, the UK inflation data consumer price index and retail sales rose, in line with expectations. However, in the face of the British House of Commons, veto the newly revised draft of the Brexit submitted by Prime Minister. The Prime Minister must apply to the EU to postpone the deadline for the March 29 deadline to June 30. At present, waiting for discussion at the meeting of the European Parliament today, the market remains on the sidelines. The pound temporarily maintained at 1.32 level, subject to 1.33, seems did not benefit from the fall of the dollar. It is expected that the exchange rate of the British pound will still fluctuate depending on whether the UK can postpone the Brexit before this weekend. In addition, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision and meeting minutes today. The market is concerned about the central bank's outlook on the future economy and monetary policy orientation.

 

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD 

1.1455/1.1475 resistance

1.1390/1.1370 support

There is no important data released in the Eurozone today. The market is looking at the Brexit extension and the Bank of England monetary policy, which may indirectly affect the euro. As the market is digesting the Fed's interest rate news, the euro may still rise in the short term. The resistance of 1.1390 is broken, the next reference target and resistance are 1.1455 and 1.1475, and the support 1.1370 is used as a reference.

 

GBPUSD

1.3255/1.3280 resistance

1.3170/1.3145 support

The British parliament vetoed the Prime Minister to submit a motion again. The UK needs to extend the Brexit deadline to the EU and increase the risk of hard Brexit in the UK. There are uncertainties and negative sentiment affects the pound at any time. Today, the Bank of England announced the results of the interest rate decision, which may be volatile for the pound. In addition, regarding the news of Brexit, both positive and negative news may affect the pound, please pay attention. If positive news, the pound against the dollar is expected to break through 1.3300, depending on the situation.

 

USDCHF 

0.9950/0.9970 resistance

0.9885/0.9860 support

The result of the Fed’s interest rate decision has made the dollar weak and the euro rising, which indirectly is also good for the Swiss franc. Technically, the USDCHF further broke through the 0.9985 support level. The Swiss franc is expected to remain strong. Just keep an eye on Britain's Brexit news and the euro, and pay attention to the sterling and euro volatility, which will indirectly affect the Swiss franc.

 

USDJPY

110.55/110.25 support

110.95/111.25 resistance

The Fed is considering stopping interest rate hikes this year. It is planned to stop reducing debt balance in September and the dollar will weaken and the yen will rise. The US Dow failed to continue to climb, and Japan’s Nikkei index fell, and the USD/JPY trended. Currently concerned, 110.55 and 110.25 support. Whether the performance of the market can test the 111.25 resistance depends on the performance of the global stock market, with particular attention to whether the US Dow can rise.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7185/0.7205 resistance

0.7110/0.7085 support

The unemployment rate in Australia has risen and the Australian dollar has weakened. Only the Fed’s interest rate record shows that the Fed did not intend to raise interest rates this year, the dollar fell, and the Australian dollar was bullish. In addition, Sino-US trade news will also affect the performance of the Australian dollar, hopefully the Australian dollar will still keep above the support. But technically, the Australian dollar needs to be adjusted and is expected to test 0.7110 support. If the support is not broken, the Australian dollar is still moving down further. For important resistance, please refer to 0.7235.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6950/0.6975 resistance

0.6890/0.6870 support

Also affected by the contents of the Fed meeting, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are similar, and the New Zealand dollar can maintain 0.6860 or above. Technically, short-term reference can be made to 0.6950 and 0.6975 resistance.

 

USDCAD

1.3315/1.3340 resistance

1.3280/1.3255 support

Also affected by the Fed policy, boosting the Canadian dollar. Today, the market expects wholesale sales to grow, with a bullish Canadian dollar. However, we must pay attention to the performance of crude oil prices. If crude oil prices is lowered, the Canadian dollar may also fall due to the fall in crude oil prices.

 

EURGBP

0.8675/0.8690 resistance

0.8590/0.8565 support

The British Parliament vetoed the latest draft of Brexit and the UK will apply to extend the Brexit deadline. The pound did not strengthen. Benefiting from the Fed’s policy impact, the euro has risen and the euro has risen to near 0.8675 resistance against the pound and may need to adjust its gains. The market is waiting for the EU to approve the postpone of Brexit. It is recommended to pay attention to the preparation of the euro against the pound.

 

EURCHF 

1.1315/1.1300 support

1.1340/1.1355 resistance

The minutes of the Fed meeting, considering the suspension of interest rate hikes this year, the euro and the Swiss franc developed in parallel with the dollar, but the euro benefited more, the euro fell against the Swiss franc. Technically, the euro is still consolidating against the Swiss franc. Technically, consider the support between 1.1335 or 1.1310, consider the opportunity to rebound. If it breaks the 1.1300 support, need to consider to make a stop loss.

 

XAUUSD 

1321/1325 resistance

1312/1308 support

The Fed’s monetary policy remains at current levels. It is not expected to raise interest rates this year, stimulating the gold prices. After over $1311, it may now challenge the 1321 and 1325 resistance. If the UK must leave the European Union on the original planned date and cannot be extended, the market risk will rise and the price of gold will likely rise further.

 

US crude oil futures:

60.35/60.60 resistance

59.15/58.75 support

The Fed maintains its existing monetary policy and plans to stop raising interest rates this year. The news boosted crude oil prices, but whether it can continue to rise, need to consider the market outlook and crude oil supply. At present, the market will be concerned about whether the US president will speak or not, criticizing the high price of crude oil and causing the price of crude oil to fall. Technically, if the price adjustment can focus on 59 and 58 support separately, if it breaks the support of $58, look forward to the test to $56.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

25935/26115 resistance

25670/25475 support

The Fed announced the interest rate decision, the Fed will keep interest rates this year. The market is thinking any recession, the Dow fell a bit. The British Parliament's undecided vote on the Brexit vote and the progress of Sino-US trade deal, risk sentiment can affect the performance of the Dow, it is worthy of attention, it is recommended to keep an eye on the Dow adjustment.

 

BTCUSD:

3780  / 3680 support

4050 /  4125 resistance 

The Fe announced the interest rate decision, the Fed will keep interest rates this year , the dollar fell then pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin keep supported between US3780 and US3680. However, US4050 and US 4125 will limited the price ofbitcoin before anytime break the resistance.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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