Personal opinions today

 

The US economic growth report, the fourth quarter GDP fell compared to the third quarter, but the core price index increased year by year. Compared with the eurozone and the UK's economic growth and strong price growth, the market has increased interest in investing in dollar assets. In addition, the US Treasury bond yield rate back to normal, which is one of the reasons positive dollar.

 

Today, the market is concerned about the performance of European data. The market is generally expected to be good, and it is expected to benefit more euros and more pounds. Evening Canada GDP monthly rate, the US Chicago PMI, the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value and new home sales total, especially the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. If grow higher than expected, the dollar has a chance to remain strong until next week. Because the market will focus on US job data announcement in next week, including the private sector AD on Wednesday, the US government labour department – non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average wage on Friday. The market expects job data and income in March to increase compared with February, US dollars strengthened.

 

 

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1210/1.1185 support

1.1248/1.1265 resistance

Looking back yesterday, the euro zone's economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index in March were lower than market expectations, and the euro was weak. In addition, Brexit affects European economic confidence. In contrast, the US economy in the last quarter was better than expected. If the economic growth in the Eurozone is only 1.2%, the US economy will grow stronger and the US dollar will rose. Technically, the wave is 1.1210 and 1.1185 in the short term support. Resistance levels are referenced at 1.1248 and 1.1265. Of course, the performance of the Eurozone data good or solved the Brexit that can be eased at any time, the EURUSD could be stronger.

 

GBPUSD

1.3095/1.3125 resistance

1.3005/1.2980 support

The House of Commons of the British Parliament still has not passed the Brexit Agreement and may leave Europe on April 12.‬ The British prime minister was willing to resign as prime minister after the British parliament accepted the Brexit agreement. In the face of Brexit and political uncertainty, the pound is facing downside risks. Last night, the pound fell to the expected support level of 1.3095. Technically, if the pound did not break the 1.3095 resistance again, the trend continued to decline. The short-term reference support is 1.3005 and 1.2980. Of course, the UK's GDP data is expected to improve today or the Brexit can be solved at any time, the pound could be stronger.

 

USDCHF

0.9975/0.9995 resistance

0.9925/0.9905 support

The CHF has temporarily become a safe haven for European currencies, and the CHF is stronger than other European currencies. However, the US dollar is strong, the euro is weak, and the CHF is also following the decline. Technically, the USDCHF is expected to reach the resistance at 0.9975. If it breaks through the resistance 0.9975, USDCHF is expected to extend to 1.0025 and 1.0055 and the reference support is 0.9925 or 0.9905.

 

USDJPY

110.95/111.05 resistance

110.45/110.30 support

Today, the unemployment rate in Japan has improved, the consumer price index has remained good, industrial production has increased, and the Japanese Nikkei index has rebounded, indirectly supporting the USDJPY rose. Today, the market expects the US economic data to be good that the US dollar will be up against the yen in the short-term. It is expected to test 110.95 and 111.05. Technically, USDJPY 110.45 and 110.30 are reference points for technical adjustment support. It is recommended to pay close attention to the dynamics of the US Dow and Japan's Nikkei to help observe the movement of the USDJPY.

 

AUDUSD

0.7095/0.7110 resistance

0.7065/0.7040 support

The market expects the Sino-US trade deal to make progress and improve the anxiety of the Australian economic slowdown. The Australian dollar has been supported. But we must pay attention to the performance of the US economic data today and the dollar performance. Next Tuesday‬, the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates. The market expects the RBA to publish dovish remarks that may have been same issued by the NZ Bank of New Zealand. If the Australian dollar rebounds, it will be restricted. Technically, the Australian dollar can be referenced in the resistance of 0.7095 and 0.7110. The short-term support targets are 0.7065 and 0.7040 respectively.

 

NZDUSD

0.6765/0.6750 support

0.6805/0.6820 resistance

The New Zealand dollar was weak after the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank published its dovish remarks. In addition, the dollar is strong, suppressing the New Zealand dollar. Currently, the market looking for US economic data performance. Technically, NZD support can refer to 0.6765 and 0.6750. Resistance levels can be referenced to 0.6805 and 0.6820.

 

USDCAD

1.3440/1.3460 resistance

1.3405/1.3385 support

Last night, the US president issued a statement opposing the rise in crude oil prices and suggested that crude oil producers increase production. The news came out, cracked down on crude oil prices and was negative for the Canadian dollar. Today, the market is concerned about the performance of the US economic data and is more concerned about Canada's GDP performance in January. If crude oil prices fall or Canada's GDP fails to meet market expectations, it is estimated that the USDCAD can test the resistance at 1.3440 or break the resistance.

 

XAUUSD

1297/1302 resistance

1285/1280 support

US GDP is still better than market expectations. Fed officials are optimistic about US economic growth. Also, they will not consider cutting interest rates this year, which is positive for the US dollar, and the gold price has plummeted. Technically, after the gold price fell below the important support of $1,303, it is now a reference for resistance. According to the long-term adjustment range, the gold price can refer to the support of 1280.55 US dollars and 1273.15 US dollars. If the US economic data is performing well today, the market will focus on the US job data next week also well, and the gold price could test the technical support level step by step.

 

US crude oil futures:

59.655/60.05 resistance

58.65/58.05 support

The US president issued a statement criticizing the rise in oil prices and once hitting crude oil prices. Now it seems the US economic growth remains strong. The Sino-US trade deal is expected to go well. The market is reducing to fear of falling crude oil demand. After the crude oil price was tested at 58 US dollars, it rebounded. Technically, the short-term reference resistance is $60.05, the reference support is 58.65 and 58.05.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

25835/25905 resistance

25430/25350 support

The final value of GDP in the last quarter of the United States still grows. Investors and the Fed predict that monetary policy remains optimistic, reducing the risk of recession this year and boosting the investment climate. In addition, the market expects progress in Sino-US trade negotiations going well and also supports the stock market going up. Technically, the support can refer to 25430 and 25350, and test resistance targets 25835 and 25905.

 

BTCUSD:

4050 / 4125 resistance

3880 / 3780 support

The US GDP still growth reduced the US economy slowdown expectations. The bitcoin price pushed back the support between US3880 and US3780. If any bad news from US data or news, the bitcoin price could reach the resistance US4050 again.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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