Personal opinions today

 

The IMF has cut its global economic forecast, said the trade war between the United States and China is a slowing down on global growth. The report showed that the US economic growth will slow down from 2.5‬ per cent to 2.3 per cent this year. However, they pointed out that China's economic and financial reform, help stimulate China's economic growth. In addition, the international monetary fund said that the European economy may be affected by the Brexit, the economic slowdown continues. The overall economic forecast said it expects global growth to slow, but is positive for Asian growth forecast. Around the time of the report, the dollar fell to 96.8, gold prices rose to $1,306 and crude oil fell below $64. In line with this analysis yesterday, note that the IMF's latest forecasts may affect the performance of the dollar.

 

Markets were particularly focused today on the European central bank's interest rate decision and the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. If the ECB and the President, Mario Draghi, expressed the targeted long-term refinancing program (TLTRO) will reduce downside risks to the euro zone economy. It will boost the euro and other European currencies. Another market focus, US consumer price index CPI and core CPI in March. The data will influence the direction of the dollar and the market's view on the minutes of the federal open market committee's March 19-20 policy meeting, please pay attention at 02:00‬ the next day.

 

[Important financial data and events to watch]

14:45 France February industrial output monthly rate‬

16:00 China March M2 money supply annual rate‬

16:30 UK February GDP monthly rate in three months‬

16:30 UK February quarterly trade account‬

16:30 UK industrial and manufacturing output monthly rate in February‬

19:45 European central bank interest rate decision‬

20:30 European central bank President Mario Draghi held a press conference‬

20:30 US quarter adjustment CPI monthly rate in March‬

22:30 EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 5‬

the next day 2:00‬ FOMC policy announced on March 19-20 minutes

 

Today's suggestion :

EURUSD

1.1270/1.1285 resistance

1.1230/1.1215 support

Markets were particularly focused on the European central bank's interest rate decision and the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. If the ECB and its President, Mario Draghi, say ECB will maintain the size of their existing TLTRO and address downside risks to the euro zone economy. It will boost the euro and other European currencies. Technically, EURUSD break out the resistance 1.1250 will test 1.1285 and 1.1310, respectively. 1.1230 and 1.1215 is short-term reference support.

 

GBPUSD 

1.3085/1.3120 resistance

1.3020/1.2985 support

The deadline for Britain to leave the European Union is set to expire on Friday, with parliament agreeing to ask the EU for an extension until June 30‬, even as the UK parliament rejected a no-deal Brexit. The news comes as European commission commissioners have said they may extend the time, but the UK cannot take part in EU elections and conference votes. If finally confirmed, it will help boost the pound. The latest news will be released in the afternoon local time in the UK every day, which will affect the short-term fluctuations of the pound. It is suggested to keep an eye on the situation. Technically, 1.3120 is expected to be the important resistance, 1.1370 is the important resistance of the upper level, and 1.3020 and 1.2985 are supported by the reference below.

 

USDCHF 

1.0005/1.0030 resistance

0.9975/0.9960 support

The dollar is currently trading in a tight range against the Swiss franc, pending the results of the U.S. CPl and core CPl in March and FOMC minutes. Technical reference 1.0005 and 1.0030 resistance, 0.9975 and 0.9960 as reference support, waiting for a break in the trend of the dollar, indirect impact on the Swiss franc.

 

USDJPY

111.25/111.40 resistance

110.95/110.80 support

The IMF said the European economy may be affected by the Brexit, the economic slowdown continues, global economic growth is expected to slow, the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average and global stock markets fell. The dollar also fell to 96.8. The market looked at the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC's policy meeting. Before the results were released, the dollar testing key support levels of 110.95 and 110.80 against the yen.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7145/0.7165 resistance

0.7105/0.7085 support

The IMF said it expects global economic growth to slow, but is positive for Asian growth, with positive for the Australian dollar. Technically, 0.7145 and 0.7165 are important resistance level references. A negative U.S. news could lift the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar, testing resistance at 0.7145 or 0.7165. The Australian dollar is likely to trade in a tight range against the U.S. dollar in the short term, waiting for the results of U.S. economic data and the FOMC minutes.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6760/0.6775 resistance

0.6735/0.6720 support

The IMF said it expects global growth to slow, but that positive for Asian growth will remain positive for the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the reference resistance to the dollar was 0.6775. Reference support bit 0.6720. The New York dollar is likely to move in a tight range against the dollar in the near term as markets look to the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC.

 

USDCAD 

1.3350/1.3375 resistance

1.3305/1.3280 support

Today, API reported a crude oil inventory large increase, compared with the previous week, crude oil price trend lower, once fell below $64, bearish Canadian dollar. The IMF expected Canada's economic growth slow down, bearish CAD. Technically, the USDCAD maintained key support at 1.3280, with reference resistance at 1.3350 and 1.3375. The market looked at the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC, which had a short-term impact on the Canadian dollar.

 

XAUUSD 

1306/1308 resistance

1296/1294 support

The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth and a fall in the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average to push gold prices higher, having tested $1,306. The market is waiting for the results of the U.S. March CPl and core CPl and minutes from the FOMC meeting, which could limit gold price gains in the short term. If the U.S. CPI is strong, gold prices are expected to have an opportunity to fall, with an initial target of 1294 support. On the contrary, the reference resistance is 1306 and 1308.

 

U.S. crude futures USOIL

64.30/64.65 resistance

63.75/63.45 support

API reported a large increase in crude oil inventories and estimated that crude oil prices have the opportunity to move lower. If EIA crude oil inventories also rose substantially, will continue to bearish in crude oil prices. In addition, if the short-term energy outlook is negative and crude oil inventories increase significantly, the crude oil prices may be larger correction occur. In addition, the market is waiting for the U.S. March CPl and core CPl. On the sidelines, crude prices are likely to adjust their gains, with the opportunity to test an initial target of $63.75 or $63.45.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26235/26335 resistance

26015/25940 support

The IMF expected the US economy to the growth slowdown. In addition, the market waiting for the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results and minutes from the FOMC as the investment climate turned cautious and the Dow Jones industrial average fell. Technical support, 26130 and 26055. If the U.S. CPl is weaker than expected in March, it could test support for 26015 and 25940. But at 2:00‬ the next day, the minutes of the FOMC must be kept in mind to see if it boosts the US Dow or not.

 

BTCUSD:

5050 / 5200 resistance

4750 / 4650 support

The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price keeps stronger. The market is waiting for the U.S. CPl and core CPl In March results and the FOMC minutes, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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