Personal opinions today

Please note that markets in Europe, the US and Asia will be closed for Easter holiday on Friday and next Monday. This commentary closed tomorrow and next Monday.

The Fed beige book report showed moderate regional growth and continued expansion in consumer and investment confidence. A slight expansion in the economy is expected in the coming months, positive the dollar. But the market is widely expected the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged next time meeting and limit the dollar rose. If tonight, the U.S. retail sales in March below market expectations 0.9 percent, the dollar could weaken, with the greenback falling against major currencies and gold rising.

The  eurozone CPI in March expansion, but UK CPI continues to slow under the market expectations. GBPUSD was lower, having tested support for $1.3020. During European trading hours today, markets were focused on the UK and eurozone retail sales data in march. Prior to the release of manufacturing PMI data in Germany and the eurozone respectively, it is worth to keep watching. During U.S. trading hours, the US reports the retail sales in March and Canada reported February retail sales. U.S. retail sales growth in March, which is expected to rise sharply from the previous month, is seen as a positive for the dollar. Ahead of the announcement, it could be bearish for Europe and commodity currencies.

[Important data and events to watch]
09:30 Australia's unemployment rate in March
14:00 German PPI and Swiss trade account in March
15:15 French manufacturing PMI in April
15:30 German manufacturing PMI in April
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI in April
16:30 UK retail sales rate in March
20:30 U.S. retail sales in March
20:30 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended April 13
20:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in April
20:30 Canadian retail sales in February
21:45 Markit manufacturing and services PMI in April
22:00 U.S. business inventories in February

Today's suggestion :

EURUSD 
1.1305/1.1320 resistance
1.1275/1.1255 support
Eurozone CPl inflation data in march, in line with market expectations, rose 1 percent, supporting the euro against dollar. In European trading today, focus on German and eurozone PMI. In addition, retail sales in the eurozone are noteworthy. If retail sales data are weak and the market expects U.S. retail sales to grow, those factors could negative on the euro, which could be bearish. Technically, the EURUSD still subject to the resistance of 1.1320. It falls, the target refers to the support level of 1.1275 and 1.1255. Before the market is watching for the U.S. retail sales data, the euro may have downward.

GBPUSD 
1.3020/1.3005 support
1.3065/1.3080 resistance
UK CPl data disappointed the market and came in below expectations. In addition, the GBP fell after the Fed beige book. The market is focused on UK retail sales data and the US retail sale data, where expectations for better economic growth in US, it possible to show bearish the GBP. Technically, the GBPUSD important resistance 1.3065 and 1.3080. Support 1.3020 and 1.3005.

AUDUSD
0.7150/0.7135 support
0.7185/0.7200 resistance
While China's first-quarter GDP was in line with expectations and had been bullish on the Australian dollar, it was hampered earlier by comments from the reserve bank of Australia on the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting and the RBA's decision to keep monetary policy loose. The dollar strengthened and AUdUSD fell after the Fed issued a beige book and comments. The U.S. will report retail sales in March today, the market is expected to grow, the dollar is strong, AUDUSD likely to fall further. Technically, the AUDUSD is expected to remain in support of 0.7135, but there is still a chance to test lower levels. Short term reference resistance 0.7185 and 0.7200.

USDJPY 
112.15/112.30 resistance
111.80/111.50 support
The dollar firmed on expected U.S. retail sales data today. Global stock market generally uptrend and dollar strength, negative yen. Currently, the USDJPY refer to technical resistance 112.15 and 112.30. If U.S. retail sales do not perform well as expected, which is bearish for the dollar or U.S. Dow, the USDJPY have a chance to try support at 111.80 or 111.50.

USDCAD 
1.3315/1.3295 support
1.3380/1.3400 resistance
Canada reported March CPI in line with market expectations, but crude oil prices fell back, ending the rise of the Canadian dollar, the Canadian dollar fell. The Canadian dollar is likely to positive today when Canada reports retail sales in march on expectations of growth. Technically, the USDCAD reference 1.3315 and 1.3295 support. Reference resistance 1.3315 and 1.3295.

U.S. crude futures USOIL 
63.25/62.80 support
64.05/64.45 resistance
Futures contract expiry for this month, the USoil prices fell from high. In addition, Ocountries other members discussions about increasing production continued to trouble the market. Above all, the price of crude oil fell below $64. If U.S. retail sales increased in March on expectations, which could boost crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil price support remains at $63.25, with lower support at $62.80. Looking up at 64.05 and 64.45 resistance, the key reference resistance is $65.25.

XAUUSD 
1270/1267 support
1282/1285 resistance
The Fed beige book release economy moderate economic growth, is expected in the next few months, the economy, bearish gold prices. In addition, today's expected surge in U.S. retail sales is bearish for gold prices. But gold prices have already fallen sharply, possibly reflecting those factors, and further declines are likely to be limited. Technically, gold prices fell 1281 support, the next try to the wave 1270 or 1267 support. If gold prices rebound, refer to the first resistance target of 1282 or 1285.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26500/26625 resistance
26315/26125 support
The federal reserve's beige book limited the Dow . The narrowing of the U.S. trade account deficit, coupled with the pre-easter holiday, hurt the Dow's performance and limited its gains. Expectations of a sharly increase in U.S. retail sales, as expected, lifted the Dow ahead of the holiday. Technically, refer to 26315 or 26125 support and 26500 and 26625 resistance.

BTCUSD:
5050 / 5200 resistance
4750 / 4650 support
The market is waiting for the Fed beige book release tomorrow, the bitcoin price keeps stronger. Technically the bitcoin price is expected below US5200, it could be test 4750 or 4650 support.

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.